AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WASHINGTON
AFDGEG 1035 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2004
.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND EMBEDDED WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MARCH ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY...AND
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A MIX OF VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...NEAGATIVE TILT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW EXTENDING
NE OF A CHELAN TO LEWISTON LINE. 285-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES OFF
THE RUC SUPPORT SATELLITE TRENDS AND INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GRIDS AND ZFP WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. MAJOR ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED
FOR THE FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST WHICH SUGGESTED THE SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA BASIN AND PALOUSE WOULD BE SEEING RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM THE
SPOKANE AREA SHOW WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF WARMING TO GO BEFORE
REACHING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ZFPS AND GRIDS WERE UPDATED
ACCODINGLY. BY THIS EVENING...THE BRUNT OF THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL BE RELAGATED TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE...WITH
ALL OTHER AREAS REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM SWEEPS UP
FROM THE SW. THE 12Z AVN WAS HANDLING THIS SYSTEM QUITE WELL AS FAR
AS POSITIONING. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
BACK INTO THE WENATCHEE AREA AROUND 06Z AND INTO SPOKANE RIGHT
AROUND 12Z. FORTUANTELY...THIS TIMING IS NOT TOO UNLIKE THE AVN
TIMING SO FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED FOR TIMING. FX
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 035 028 038 026 041/ 80 20 60 30 20
COEUR D'ALENE 035 029 037 027 039/ 80 20 60 30 20
PULLMAN 039 030 040 027 042/ 80 20 40 20 20
LEWISTON 043 033 043 030 047/ 50 30 40 20 20
COLVILLE 037 028 037 024 040/ 80 20 60 30 20
SANDPOINT 034 027 035 023 040/ 70 20 60 30 20
WALLACE 034 025 033 023 037/ 80 20 60 30 20
MOSES LAKE 038 029 042 029 044/ 60 30 20 20 20
WENATCHEE 039 031 041 028 043/ 40 30 40 20 40
OMAK 036 028 038 028 038/ 70 30 40 20 30
&&
.OTX...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
$$