Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/05/04

.DISCUSSION...

WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY WILL BE TRIMMING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND ALSO INTEND TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN TACT FOR THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATED WARM AIR ALOFT WITH +5C AT 850 ON THE OAX SOUNDING. THE 0C LINE HAD MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. WE FEEL THAT BECAUSE OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE JUST A BIT LONGER TO SWITCH THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...AND THEREFORE WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON THE TOTAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AS THE GREATEST AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES EAST. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WHILE THIS WILL BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE... WARM GROUND SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THUS...LOOKING FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO IN THE I80 CORRIDOR. WITH REGARD TO THE FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH ONE FORECAST POINT TO INCREASE TO ABOVE ACTION STAGE BUT JUST SHY OF FLOOD STAGE...WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THE RIVERS RESPOND...AND THUS PLAN ON GIVING THAT HEADLINE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO DEVELOP.

DEWALD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION

306 PM CST THU MAR 04 2004

PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

MID DAY SURFACE CHARTS SHOWED 40 DEW POINTS SURGING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS INDICATED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE JUST TO THE SOUTH...WITH STRONG 50KT 850 JET PUSHING THIS MOISTURE NORTH. ACARS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATED AIR FROM EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING HAD PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 850 MB LEVEL NEAR OMAHA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. ETA AND GFS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM EACH OTHER JUST A BIT AS FAR AS TRACK OF SURFACE LOW GOES. ETA WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK AND THUS PUMPING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...AND GFS FARTHER EAST AND COLDER. HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM BOTH MODELS SHOWED SIMILAR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST INFORMATION...AND A LOOK AT 18Z MESOETA...HAVE NOT CHANGED THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST VERY MUCH. QPF VALUES WILL BE HIGH...AND THOSE SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH. SOME THUNDER HAD COME CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT ADVECTION OF HIGH THETA-E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO BRING A RUMBLE OR TWO...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY BE REACHED OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH IN THOSE AREAS.

CURRENT THINKING IS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STAY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AREA...AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OFFSETS ANY LOW LEVEL COOLING. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MORNING. MODIFIED GARCIA METHODOLOGY WOULD GIVE MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST CWA...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SIX HOUR PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BEFORE DOWNGLIDE BEGINS LATER TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 40. SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP THEN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. BRIEFLY COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN MONDAY. WARMER STILL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DERGAN

&&

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 600 AM NEZ011-012-016>018- 030>032-042. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NEZ067-068-089>093. .IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$



.DISCUSSION...

PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

MID DAY SURFACE CHARTS SHOWED 40 DEW POINTS SURGING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS INDICATED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE JUST TO THE SOUTH...WITH STRONG 50KT 850 JET PUSHING THIS MOISTURE NORTH. ACARS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATED AIR FROM EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING HAD PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 850 MB LEVEL NEAR OMAHA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. ETA AND GFS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM EACH OTHER JUST A BIT AS FAR AS TRACK OF SURFACE LOW GOES. ETA WAS FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK AND THUS PUMPING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...AND GFS FARTHER EAST AND COLDER. HOWEVER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM BOTH MODELS SHOWED SIMILAR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST INFORMATION...AND A LOOK AT 18Z MESOETA...HAVE NOT CHANGED THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST VERY MUCH. QPF VALUES WILL BE HIGH...AND THOSE SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH. SOME THUNDER HAD COME CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT ADVECTION OF HIGH THETA-E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO BRING A RUMBLE OR TWO...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY BE REACHED OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH IN THOSE AREAS.

CURRENT THINKING IS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STAY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AREA...AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OFFSETS ANY LOW LEVEL COOLING. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MORNING. MODIFIED GARCIA METHODOLOGY WOULD GIVE MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST CWA...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SIX HOUR PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BEFORE DOWNGLIDE BEGINS LATER TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST CWA.

THE PRECIP SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 40. SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP THEN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. BRIEFLY COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN MONDAY. WARMER STILL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 00Z THROUGH 12Z FOR BUTLER...COLFAX... DODGE...CUMING...THURSTON...PLATTE...STANTON...WAYNE...BOONE... MADISON...PIERCE...CEDAR...ANTELOPE...KNOX. FLOOD WATCH FROM 00Z THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY FOR GAGE...JOHNSON... PAWNEE...NEMAHA...RICHARDSON...OTOE AND CASS COUNTIES. .IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 00Z THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY FOR MILLS...MONTGOMERY...FREMONT AND PAGE COUNTIES.

&&

$$

DERGAN



.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TNGT... STNRY FNT DRAPED OUT ACROSS SRN VA WL RETREAT N THIS MORN AND EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AFTN ACROSS THE CWFA AS THE WHOLE AREA MAKES IT INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS TODAY IN THE 70S IN MANY LOCS. LLVL MOISTURE INCRS THRUT THE DAY WITH SFC TDS AT LEAST REACHING THE U50S/NR 60 E OF THE MTNS. DESPITE BREAKING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ATMOS WL BE CAPPED OFF SO NO PCPN THIS AFTN.

TNGT FCST RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD SAVE FOR A FEW CAVEATS. AS NEXT IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF UPR TROF OVR THE SRN PLAINS...CONVECTION XPCTD TO DEVELOP OVR THE MS/TN VLYS ALG THE ADVANCING CDFNT. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE MOIST AXIS WHICH WL SHIFT OVR THE CWFA OVNGT TNGT. PCPN AFFECTING THE CWFA OVNGT XPCTD TO BE ON THE DOWNSWING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT THIS FAR N. QUESTION REMAINS IF ANY INSTABILITY WL REMAIN TO PRODUCE TSRA. GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THIS SYS AND AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL ELEVATD INSTAB WL INCLUDE MENTION OF TS ALL ZNS FOR THE OVNGT TNGT. THIS LEADS TO THE NEXT PROB.

WND FIELD TNGT IS SOMEWHAT DISTURBING. THIS SYS HAS A VRY ENERGETIC WND FIELD AS DO MANY EARLY SPRING SYSTEMS. IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAKE IT THIS FAR TO THE N...DEEP LYR SHEAR IS VRY IMPRESSIVE...APCHG 100KT WITH SFC-1KM HELICITIES OVR 300. LCLS WL ALSO BE VRY LOW WITH DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES. AGAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED... ANY SML BOW SEGMENTS WL HV TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. STG WNDS MAKE IT DOWN PRETTY LOW SO IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH OF A DOWNDRAFT TO TRANSPORT THE STG WNDS TO THE SFC. OVRALL TS RISK NOT VRY HIGH. BEST TIMING ON THE BULK OF THE ACTION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

LOOKED AT HVY RAFL POTENTIAL...BUT THINK THAT THINGS WL BE OK FOR NOW. DESPITE RAPIDLY INCRSG PWAT VALUES SYS OVRALL FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND AM ONLY XPCTG AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES QPF ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION... PLENTY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORN. BUFKIT PROFILES AND ACARS SNDGS SHOWING A CHARACTERISTIC LOW CLDS/FG SIGNATURE WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LYR AND INCRSG WET BULB TEMPS AND DRYING RIGHT ABV THAT LYR. LOW CLDS HV ALREADY MADE AN APPEARANCE AT IAD/BWI/DCA. THE TREND WL CONT SAVE FOR CHO WHERE VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD TO CONT. HV BROUGHT THINGS DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR AND SOME LIFR THROUGH AROUND 13Z. THAT TIME MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THE LOW CONDS COULD PERSIST THRU 14Z. AFTER THAT A QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS BOUNDARY LYR STARTS TO MIX WITH APCHG SFC FNT AND STG WAA.

TNGT FEW PROBS AGAIN. XPCT A SAT COLUMN RIGHT TO THE SFC AS AREA OF HVY PCPN MOVES OVR THE METRO APTS. LLWS WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TNGT AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING 60+ KT DOWN TO AROUND 2.5KFT. 12Z TAF ISSUANCE WL INCLUDE LLWS MENTION.

MANNING &&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... PCPN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO DRY OUT LATE SATURDAY AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL GO WI LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM...BUT WITH THE COLD AIRMASS PROGGED WILL PUT IN SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NWLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. A COUPLE OF PASSING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY. ND

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE.

$$



.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT FINALLY REACHING THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WSR-88D SHOWS JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KING COUNTY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE AREA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BACK TO NEAR 45N/140W. THIS COLD FRONT IS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. GFS HAS THE 250 MB WIND FIELD INITIALIZED REALLY WELL PER THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 120 KNOT JET SLAMMING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR TOMORROW. NO CHANGES IN THE 00Z MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SITUATION COVERED. NO UPDATES. FELTON

&&

.SEW...GALE WARNING CENTRAL STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST...WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT... CAMANO ISLAND TO POINT ROBERTS...ADMIRALTY INLET. .WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21.

&&

$$



UPDATE...

BUSY MRNG METEOROLOGICALLY. PLAYING THE "WHERE'S THE WARM FNT GOING?" GAME. AS CAN HAPPEN IN THE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING THE CHCS FOR BEING OFF BY 10-15 DEGS ON THE TEMP ARE HIGH. A TIME LAPSE OF SFC OBS SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE TURNING MR SRLY IN THE CWA...AND IT IS LOOKING BRIGHTER OUT OUR WINDOW. XPCTATION IS THAT CLDS WL CONTINUE TO LIFT CURG AFTN HRS...LATEST IN THE NE CORNER OF THE CWA. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN AFTN HIGHS...BUT IN MOST AREAS HV TRENDED DOWN.

ZNS/ASSO PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED. PRVS THINKING IS BELOW.

WOODY!

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TNGT... STNRY FNT DRAPED OUT ACROSS SRN VA WL RETREAT N THIS MORN AND EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM AFTN ACROSS THE CWFA AS THE WHOLE AREA MAKES IT INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS TODAY IN THE 70S IN MANY LOCS. LLVL MOISTURE INCRS THRUT THE DAY WITH SFC TDS AT LEAST REACHING THE U50S/NR 60 E OF THE MTNS. DESPITE BREAKING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ATMOS WL BE CAPPED OFF SO NO PCPN THIS AFTN.

TNGT FCST RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD SAVE FOR A FEW CAVEATS. AS NEXT IMPULSE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF UPR TROF OVR THE SRN PLAINS...CONVECTION XPCTD TO DEVELOP OVR THE MS/TN VLYS ALG THE ADVANCING CDFNT. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE MOIST AXIS WHICH WL SHIFT OVR THE CWFA OVNGT TNGT. PCPN AFFECTING THE CWFA OVNGT XPCTD TO BE ON THE DOWNSWING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT THIS FAR N. QUESTION REMAINS IF ANY INSTABILITY WL REMAIN TO PRODUCE TSRA. GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THIS SYS AND AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL ELEVATD INSTAB WL INCLUDE MENTION OF TS ALL ZNS FOR THE OVNGT TNGT. THIS LEADS TO THE NEXT PROB.

WND FIELD TNGT IS SOMEWHAT DISTURBING. THIS SYS HAS A VRY ENERGETIC WND FIELD AS DO MANY EARLY SPRING SYSTEMS. IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAKE IT THIS FAR TO THE N...DEEP LYR SHEAR IS VRY IMPRESSIVE...APCHG 100KT WITH SFC-1KM HELICITIES OVR 300. LCLS WL ALSO BE VRY LOW WITH DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES. AGAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED... ANY SML BOW SEGMENTS WL HV TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. STG WNDS MAKE IT DOWN PRETTY LOW SO IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH OF A DOWNDRAFT TO TRANSPORT THE STG WNDS TO THE SFC. OVRALL TS RISK NOT VRY HIGH. BEST TIMING ON THE BULK OF THE ACTION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

LOOKED AT HVY RAFL POTENTIAL...BUT THINK THAT THINGS WL BE OK FOR NOW. DESPITE RAPIDLY INCRSG PWAT VALUES SYS OVRALL FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND AM ONLY XPCTG AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES QPF ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION... PLENTY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORN. BUFKIT PROFILES AND ACARS SNDGS SHOWING A CHARACTERISTIC LOW CLDS/FG SIGNATURE WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LYR AND INCRSG WET BULB TEMPS AND DRYING RIGHT ABV THAT LYR. LOW CLDS HV ALREADY MADE AN APPEARANCE AT IAD/BWI/DCA. THE TREND WL CONT SAVE FOR CHO WHERE VFR/MVFR CONDS XPCTD TO CONT. HV BROUGHT THINGS DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR AND SOME LIFR THROUGH AROUND 13Z. THAT TIME MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THE LOW CONDS COULD PERSIST THRU 14Z. AFTER THAT A QUICK IMPROVEMENT AS BOUNDARY LYR STARTS TO MIX WITH APCHG SFC FNT AND STG WAA.

TNGT FEW PROBS AGAIN. XPCT A SAT COLUMN RIGHT TO THE SFC AS AREA OF HVY PCPN MOVES OVR THE METRO APTS. LLWS WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TNGT AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING 60+ KT DOWN TO AROUND 2.5KFT. 12Z TAF ISSUANCE WL INCLUDE LLWS MENTION.

MANNING &&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... PCPN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO DRY OUT LATE SATURDAY AS STRONG CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL GO WI LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM...BUT WITH THE COLD AIRMASS PROGGED WILL PUT IN SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NWLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. A COUPLE OF PASSING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY. ND

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE.

$$