Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/07/04

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. WILL UPDATE FIRST PERIOD TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AND TO BUMP WINDS UP A LITTLE. LONE GUST TO 36 KT AT BDR AT 01Z...ALSO LATEST JFK ACARS AND OKX 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH PEAK WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KT IN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SO SURFACE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY NYC METRO AREA. &&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S RIGHT BEHIND IT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MONDAY IN RAIN. &&

.MARINE...FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON THE WATERS TO 25-30 KT BEHIND IT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING SUNDAY. NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND THEN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAINLY IN GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. &&

.PREV SHORT TERM FROM 240 PM DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT DRIES THINGS OUT AND COOLS THINGS OFF CONSIDERABLY. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER SHOULD REBOUND NICELY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY DAYS END AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND NEXT SURFACE LOW DIVES FROM GREAT LAKES REGION TO OFF DELMARVA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM NOW PAINTING A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES A POSSIBILITY BEFORE IT HEADS OUT TO SEA. RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NORTH OF THE CENTER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. A SHIFT IN THIS BAND IS DEFINITELY IN THE CARDS SO CONFIDENCE LESS THAN DESIRABLE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM ESPECIALLY SINCE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH A GRADUAL TURNOVER TO ALL SNOW LATER AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...DRY INITIALLY WITH NEXT SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN BUT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TRACK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN SO NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD INTRUDE INTO OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCY POPS FROM AROUND TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP IT DRY THEREAFTER AS SYSTEMS THIS TIME PERIOD APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. &&

.HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN...ANZ355-353-350.

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GOODMAN



.SHORT TERM...WARMUP HAS BEGUN OVER THE DISTRICT WITH TODAY'S HI TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN FRI HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LATEST LAX-DAG GRADIENT -2.4 MB...AND LAX-TPH -6.4 MB. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING FROM LAX SHOWS A NEAR SURFACED BASED INVERSION WITH TEMPS WARMING FROM 58 DEG AT THE SURFACE TO 67 DEG AT 1500 FEET. MESO-ETA 950 MB TEMPS (1500 FT) SHOW ADDITIONAL WARMING OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOG SOME DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT...AND SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST TOWARD MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST CANYON WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIND ADVISORY WINDS...AND CERTAINLY NO COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEG ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S SUN AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO MON ALONG WITH NIGHT AND MORNING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOCALLY GUSTY CANYON WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME IF NOT EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER MON WITH A FEW VALLEY LOCATION HAVING A CHANCE TO REACH 90 DEGREES. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MON NITE AND TUE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE SOME...AT THE SAME TIME CAUSING SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUE WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUE NITE AND WED WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INSIDE SLIDER TO MOVE THRU EASTERN CA DURING THE PD. THE UPPER TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE E AND INTO AZ FOR THU. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SOME...BUT A LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS SHOULD LIMIT THE COOLING. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THU.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

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SIRARD



.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING RAIN AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... BASED ON LAND AND MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE WARM FRONT APPEARED TO BE LOCATED JUST N OF KUIL...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND...TO JUST S OF KSMP. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD DURING THE DAY...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY MIDDAY MON...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS...IN PARTICULAR...TO BUMP UP TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS. ACARS AND UPPER DATA SHOWED THE FREEZING LEVELS RUNNING FROM ABOUT 6500 FEET FAR N TO NEAR 9000 FEET S. THE FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 9000 TO 9500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21A.

&&

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