Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/08/04

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY...WARM DAYS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES.

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.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OF INCREASING WINDS AND LOCAL WIND PROGRAM DATA...IT APPEARS WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NORMALLY WIND PRONE SPOTS IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...BELOW THE CAJON PASS...AND IN THE SAN DIEGO MTNS AT TIMES THROUGH MON AM. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS EVENT.

LOOKS LIKE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER IDAHO AND UTAH THROUGH MON MORNING. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENTS ARE LARGE...AND ACARS SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SEVERE CLEAR AND WARMING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WEAKENING THE OFFSHORE FLOW...FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER...THEN THE RIDGE REBUILDS OFFSHORE THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED MILD WEATHER AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS.

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.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY....SEE(LAXNPWSGX).

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JAD



.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WEAK...FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME COOLING TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

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.DISCUSSION... MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. MOST PLACES IN THE 50S RIGHT NOW WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF 130W. RIDGE WILL SHIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES ON MONDAY. QUESTION FOR MONDAY IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE GONE LIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND ON ACARS OBS STILL BLOWING 20 TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY TURNS WEAKLY OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING HOURS. WARM AIR NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM WESTERN WASHINGTON RIGHT NOW WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 70 TODAY. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING THAT WARM IN WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY BUT 60S A STRONG POSSIBILITY FROM SEATTLE SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR ZONE AND WARM UP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND KEEP SEATTLE AREA MAXS NEAR 60. WEAK SPLITTING SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOWS UP BEST ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 45N/148W AT 04Z...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAN THE CURRENT ONE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DRY DAYS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FELTON

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.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

.KATX...VCP31/CSR21A.

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.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

UPDATE FOR ZONES THIS MORNING. NO UPDATE FOR AFP. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT OVER THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 42 MPH. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH OVER SE IDAHO WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. 12Z ETA SHOWING 700MB WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR DRY AND WARM WEATHER. ACARS SOUNDING AT BILLINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING UP TO 700MB. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO HOOK UP TO THE SURFACE TODAY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE EXTENDED MODELS...BUT SEEM TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE TONIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHORT TERM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT. DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME APPARENT WITH SPEED OF NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS INITIALLY QUICKER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPER TOO. TIMING BECOMES SIMILAR INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD POINT TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. ADVERTISED INSTABILITY OF 8.5C/KM 850-700MB AND SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT 700MB. SHORTWAVE LOOKING VERY STRONG. WILL PUSH LOW POPS FARTHER WEST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THIS FEATURE. RIDGE THEN TO TAKE OVER FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM. HUMPHREY

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 064 040/066 036/049 031/056 033/054 031/047 026/050 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 20/B 00/B LVM 057 036/059 031/048 026/054 029/051 026/044 025/047 0/B 02/W 00/B 00/B 00/B 20/B 00/B HDN 065 037/068 031/050 023/057 032/055 029/048 023/051 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 20/B 00/B MLS 059 034/062 030/046 025/052 029/053 027/044 025/049 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 20/B 00/B 4BQ 055 032/063 030/047 025/054 031/057 027/045 024/050 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 30/E 00/B BHK 048 031/059 029/046 018/049 027/048 025/040 021/044 0/B 00/B 20/B 00/B 00/B 20/E 00/B SHR 057 032/061 028/046 019/054 026/052 025/044 023/047 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 20/E 00/B

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.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE.

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