Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/09/04

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. A 90KT MIDLEVEL JET IS SEEN DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 300MB ANALYSIS USING ACARS DATA SHOWS A 140KT JET EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHICH BECOMES A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE IT ADJOINS A 1014MB LOW NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS. OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE ARE A DEPARTING LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...1026MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES...AND AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

11-3.9U AND IR SATELLITES SHOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ERODING...WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SIMILARLY...RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY DURING THE EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THIS FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WAS COLD ENOUGH TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE UNFROZEN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WILL DIMINISH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY PROVIDE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF DECREASING INSTABILITY AND A LOSS OF THE MOIST NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY.

THE STRONG UPPER MIDWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST...RECARVING A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT.

AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE...EVEN ABOVE THE WATERS WHERE SEA TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE MID 40S. HENCE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE A PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES ON AN OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATED ZFP/EOL ALREADY SENT...UPDATED GRIDS/CWF WILL BE SENT IN A FEW MINUTES. THANKS FOR PHONE COLLABORATION RLX!

ROGOWSKI

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.

$$



.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

ANOTHER VERY MILD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES ALREADY APPROACHING 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED 700MB SOUNDINGS BEST IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS TO WARM AND THE ETA TOO COLD AT 850MB. THEREFORE...WILL BE USING THE GFS FOR THIS UPDATE. BILLINGS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO CLEAR SKIES. MORNING SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT INVERSION FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS ALREADY 20 TO 30 MPH FROM BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON... GOOD MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH BILLINGS...MILES CITY...SHERIDAN RECORDS BEING 68...65...AND 65 RESPECTIVELY. FORECASTED 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER TODAY THAN WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE WITH CONTINUED MIXING AND PLENTY MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN TODAY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GRADIENT WILL BE MORE NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. WILL STILL MONITOR THAT AREA DURING THE DAY. STRONG VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A BRIEF WINDOW OF INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. BIGGEST AFFECT WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RVS HYDROLOGY STATEMENT ONE MORE DAY AS MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 50S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL THEREFORE NOT CONTINUE THE RVS UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM WEATHER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE EXTENDED PACKAGE THIS MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT ALSO BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO BE STRONG TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TO SEND A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS PROGGING LAPSE RATES OF 8.5C/KM WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS HAS PUSHED THE WAVE FARTHER EAST AND WEAKENED IT FROM THE LAST RUN. WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER AT A LATER TIME. ALSO...MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY THE BIG HORNS) WITH UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE BUMPED THEM UP ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY FOR SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...SO WILL LINGER THE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE DAY. WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH SOME COOLING FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HUMPHREY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 069 036/049 027/055 033/052 025/043 023/046 032/057 0/N 20/B 00/B 02/W 33/W 00/B 00/B LVM 061 031/048 023/053 029/049 023/040 022/045 028/056 0/N 20/U 00/N 03/W 33/W 00/B 00/N HDN 070 031/047 023/055 032/053 024/044 020/049 031/060 0/U 20/B 00/B 02/W 33/W 00/B 00/B MLS 066 031/041 019/052 029/051 024/037 022/045 031/056 0/U 20/N 00/U 02/W 23/W 00/B 00/B 4BQ 065 032/044 022/054 029/055 024/042 021/049 029/059 0/U 20/N 00/B 00/N 33/W 00/B 00/B BHK 063 029/039 016/049 027/049 022/035 018/042 023/051 0/U 20/N 00/B 00/N 23/W 00/B 00/B SHR 063 029/044 021/053 025/050 022/041 020/044 025/056 0/U 20/N 00/U 00/B 43/W 00/B 00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE.

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