Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT" or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/19/04

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

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.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CASCADES. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. WIND ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL UP THE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...STRONG CROSS CASCADE FLOW WILL AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE SPOKANE AND PALOUSE AREA. A COMBINATION OF SOUNDING...ACARS AND MODEL DATA ARE INDICATING A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AT AROUND 10K FEET. THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS MINIMAL AND WILL THEREFORE REMOVE MENTION FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE ALL ELSE ON TRACK. /LERICOS

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SPOKANE 065 036 047 031 057/ 10 10 10 10 00 COEUR D'ALENE 063 036 047 031 057/ 20 20 10 10 00 PULLMAN 065 038 048 035 058/ 10 10 10 10 00 LEWISTON 069 043 054 038 063/ 10 20 10 00 00 COLVILLE 068 032 053 031 063/ 20 20 10 10 00 SANDPOINT 060 034 047 028 057/ 40 40 20 10 00 WALLACE 050 033 045 030 055/ 40 40 40 10 00 MOSES LAKE 068 037 055 034 064/ 10 10 10 00 00 WENATCHEE 067 035 053 036 062/ 10 10 10 10 00 OMAK 064 031 055 030 064/ 10 10 10 10 00 &&

.OTX... ID...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 2 AND 3 THIS AFTERNOON. WA...WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 32-36...41...43-44 THIS AFTERNOON.

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.SYNOPSIS...FAIR SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE VALLEYS LATE EACH NIGHT...THEN CLEARING TO NEAR THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND...LOCALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SPRING BEGINS TODAY AT 1049 PM PST.

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.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MARINE INVERSION NR 2000 FT WITH THE MARINE LYR CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN. LOW CLOUDS WL SPREAD WELL INTO THE INLAND VLYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DENSE FOG FARTHER INLAND THAN RECENT MORNINGS...MAINLY NR THE FOOTHILLS AND IN PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. LOW CLOUDS WL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THIS MORNING AND MAY NOT CLEAR MUCH AT SOME BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

WK UPR RDG WL BUILD OVR SRN CA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SOME WARMING FOR INLAND AREAS WITH LESS WARMING CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOW CLOUDS WL SPREAD INTO THE VLYS LATE EACH NIGHT...THEN CLR TO NR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND WK LWR LVL FLOW...CLRG MAY BE A STRUGGLE AT SOME BEACHES SAT AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES A LTL FOR SUN. THIS MAY HELP SOME WITH MIXING AND CSTL CLRG FOR SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LARGE CLOSED UPR LOW OVR THE ERN PACIFIC MAY BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE UPR RDG OVR SRN CA AND INCR THE ONSHORE LWR LVL FLOW. THIS WILL BRING COOLING MON THRU WED...LCLLY GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS...AND A DEEPER MARINE LYR WITH SLOWER AFTERNOON CLRG W OF THE MTNS TUE AND WED.

A CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY IF THE UPR LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

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.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY... SEE(LAXNPWSGX).

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XXX666



.SHORT TERM...BIG QUESTION AS USUAL LATELY IS WHAT ARE THE WINDS GOING TO DO? WAVE SIGNATURE FROM 88D HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WHILE SFC GRADIENT FINALLY BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A WEAK WAVE SKIRTED NRN CO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY STARTING TO GET SOME RESPONSE FROM THE SUBSIDENCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SUBSIDENCE IS UP ACROSS WY SO DON'T THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TO GET THE HIGH WINDS. ALSO...LAST ACARS FROM MIDNIGHT HAD MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION FAIRLY HIGH AT 600MB AND FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA BUFFER HAD INVERSION LOWERING A BIT TO 650 MPH. LATEST 06Z MM5 ALSO NOT THAT IMPRESSED WITH GUSTS ONLY IN THE 40-50 MPH EXPECTED. IN CONTRAST...LATEST LOOK AT MEDICINE BOW PROFILER FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 50KT UP TO AROUND 650MB WITH DECREASING WINDS ABOVE. DEFINITIELY A GOOD SHEAR PROFILE FOR HI WIND POTENTIAL. OVERALL...EXPECT MAJORITY OF WIND GUSTS BELOW THE HI WIND CRITERIA OF 75 MPH. THIS EVENT SIMILAR TO WED AM SO HAVEN'T COMPLETELY RULED OUT GOING TO A SHORT FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE MOVES DOWN FROM WY.

IN FOLLOWING WITH THE WINDS...THE NEXT CONCERN IS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY. BIG WARM UP IN SFC TEMPS AS 700MB TEMPS RISE UP TO 8C ON THE PLAINS AND WOULD CORRESPOND TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH HAINES INDEX AT 6. MEANWHILE...RH LVLS DIP TO 5-10% OVER THE FRONT RANGE WITH 10-15% OVER THE FAR PLAINS. SFC WNDS ON THE PLAINS PROBABLY ONLY 15 TO 25 MPH BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF PRESCRIBED BURNING GOING ON THIS WEEK AND BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED A FEW DAYS AGO...THIS MAY BE A GOOD DAY TO PUT A TEMPORARY HALT TO POTENTIAL GRASS FIRES. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE FOOTHILLS STARTING THIS AM AND EXTENDING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

STILL SOME LINGERING GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO NERN LATE TNT WITH COOLER TEMPS. MAY END WITH A LITTLE STRATUS OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW ON SAT ACROSS NERN CO AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. GRIDDED FIELDS SHOW TEMPS SHOULD COOL ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS OVER THE NERN PLAINS. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS AREA IN WNW FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AN PCPN AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY AND STABLE.

ON SUN SFC HI PRES WILL BE OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WNW. ONCE AGAIN BELIEVE ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON SFC FEATURES THAN GFS AS GFS DEVELOPS SFC LOW PRESSURE TOO QUICKLY ACROSS ERN CO BY SUN AFTN. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE RATHER STG SELY LOW LVL FLOW DEVELOP ON SUN ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH GRIDDED FIELDS SHOW WARMING AT 700 MB ON SUN TEMPS AROUND THE 850 LEVEL CHANGE LITTLE CHANGE THUS AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SAT. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON SUN ACROSS NRN CO ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

BY MON SFC HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AS SFC LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY LOW LVL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER NERN CO. GRIDDED FIELDS SHOW WARMING OCCURRING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS. ON TUE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE WSW WHICH WOULD LEAD TO EVEN WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS COULD RISE TO AOA 80 DEGREES OVER THE NERN PLAINS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS AREA WITH LAPSE RATES RISING ABOVE 9 C/KM BY TUE AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME HI BASED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS TUE AFTN DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

BY WED AND THU FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY AS STG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO THE WRN US COAST. GFS SHOWS A WEAK FNT COULD AFFECT NERN CO TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THRU THURSDAY ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD HI BASED CONVECTION TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

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.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES TODAY..215>216..238>241...AND THIS AFTN FOR 242>251.

$$ /NSWE/RPK