Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 01/07/07

.SYNOPSIS...DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRYING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...MAINLY THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. COOL TODAY THEN WARMER DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS...COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED STRONG WLY WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E BUT TURNING OFFSHORE FROM THE N.

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY DRY AS THE FLOW TURNS N TO NE DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE GOOD UPPER SUPPORT BUT ONLY MODERATE GRADIENT AND THERMAL SUPPORT FOR OFFSHORE WINDS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN BEFORE STARTING TO REDEVELOP SUN NIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...INLAND EMPIRE AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS WITH WIND ADVISORY IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...RIVERSIDE MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS AND SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH 6 PM SAT. ALSO WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DESERTS AND SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE W TO NW WINDS EARLY TODAY. THE DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. COOL TODAY THEN WARMER SAT AND SUN...ESPECIALLY SUN W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY REDEVELOP MON MORNING WITH LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A WARM DAY IN MOST AREAS MON. GRADUALLY COOLING INTO MID WEAK AS HEIGHT DECREASE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS OR TURN BACK ONSHORE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS...COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT THU.

&&

.AVIATION... UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z...ESPECIALLY ON THE FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL SLOPES. THESE AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER 15Z AS A DRY N TO NE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONG AND GUSTY NW OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NORTH...NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BY 12Z... AND OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY 15Z. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS WILL CREATE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT TURBULENCE AND WAVE/ROTOR ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SAN BERNARDINOS. AFTER 15Z LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS MAY EXCEED 50 KTS...CREATING DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND SEVERE TURBULENCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE... A MODERATE WEST SWELL AND LARGE SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVE...COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SURF OF 5 TO 7 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 10 FEET WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SOME LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS LATE THIS MORNING DURING HIGH TIDE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...INLAND EMPIRE AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 6 PM SAT. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DESERTS AND SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREAS UNTIL 2 PM TODAY. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LAXRFWSGX.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST TONIGHT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTS. SEE LAXCFWSGX.

GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 8 AM AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION/MARINE...JAD

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT...OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FRIDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS. AFTER A COOL DAY FRIDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CANYONS CONTINUE. A STORM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH SO FAR...WITH THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTNS RECEIVING THE BEST PRECIP. IT APPEARS THERE ARE 2 WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO NW LA COUNTY. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE FREEZING LEVEL TO STILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET...THOUGH MINOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD BRING THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 6000 FEET IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THE SECOND WAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COULD BRING LOCAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FEET. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/10 INCH AT THE COAST AND 1/4 INCH ON WEST MTN SLOPES STILL LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MTNS COULD GET LOCALLY OVER 1/4 INCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. A 50 MPH GUST OCCURRED AT BURNS CANYON BEFORE 6 PM...BUT OVERALL...THE STRONGER WINDS...GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE PRETTY LOCALIZED. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT...BUT REGARDLESS...EXPECT SUPPORT FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE.

PRECIP SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT...OR AT THE LATEST...AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AS DRY AIR MOVES IN RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...ESPECIALLY N-S ONES LIKE THE CAJON PASS FRI. MOST OF THE SUPPORT IS ALOFT...WITH SOME WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE JUST MODERATE FRIDAY...SO THAT MIGHT LIMIT WINDS SOMEWHAT...PLUS THE PEAK WINDS ALOFT COME LATE FRI VS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-DESIRED MORNING HOURS FRI. HOWEVER...THE 850-700 MB WINDS COMBINED WITH ABOUT A 15 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH IN NW NEVADA AND SAN DIEGO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LOCAL GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS OVER COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH...BUT I WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS AS LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH COULD OCCUR. WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT WIND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FROM WHEN THE HIGH WIND WATCH/WARNING EXPIRES FRI EVENING UNTIL SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE E PAC AND THE SW US OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THAT COMBINED WITH NO MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP DAYTIME TEMPS RISE TO 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN/MON...THOUGH DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME CHILLY NIGHTS WHERE IN WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS. SPEAKING OF THE DRY AIR...THAT WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD...AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY AS OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS COULD CONTINUE BELOW PASSES/CANYONS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER INCREASE MONDAY.

GFS HAS A DEEP TROUGH FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING AROUND THU. ECM IS MUCH WEAKER THOUGH BUT STILL HAS A TROUGHY PATTERN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN AMOUNTS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS...THOUGH OF COURSE MODEL VERIFICATION IS STILL RATHER LOW ONE WEEK OUT...SO THINGS COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AT KSNA-KCRQ-KSAN- AND AT KONT. VSBYS AT KSAN...KCRQ...KSNA AND KONT HAVE DROPPED TO AT OR JUST AROUND 3 MI IN -SHRA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS REPORTED...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. CIGS HAVE DROPPED A BIT BLO 1000 FT FOR A TIME WITH SOME OF THE RAIN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE COAST...SO VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY AROUND 06Z.

ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE STRONG WIND SHIFT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. APPEARS AS IT WILL BE MORE GRADUAL AND OF LESS IMPACT. THE FRONT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVED DOWN THE COAST. SO HAVE BACKED WINDS OFF AND KEPT THEM MORE WESTERLY VS NW AT COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS. SOME TURBULENCE PROBLEMS AND WAVE/ROTOR ACTIVITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH TURBULENCE AND WAVE/ROTOR ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE SAN BERNARDINOS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO DISAPPEAR BY SUNRISE EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE WINDWARD MTN FOOTHILLS.

&&

.MARINE... THE FRONT WILL BRING LARGE SWELL AND GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRI. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR MARINERS...SEE LAXMWSSGX...AND LARGE SURF FOR BEACH VISITORS...SEE LAXCFWSGX. SEAS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FRI.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY...FOR MOST DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

HIGH WIND WATCH FRIDAY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM FRIDAY ...FOR ORANGE COUNTY...INLAND EMPIRE...AND ALL SW CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...SEE LAXRFWSGX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS...SEE LAXSPSSGX.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRI...FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTS...SEE LAXCFWSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS TONIGHT AND FRI FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS AND GALE WARNING FOR OUTER WATERS TONIGHT...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION/MARINE...PURPURA

.DISCUSSION...

345 AM CST

S/WV INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS WRN/NRN GRTLKS RGN EARLY THIS AM. THIS S/WV TO MOV QUICKLY AWAY FROM FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY TO THE EAST AND RADAR DETECTABLE PCPN ALREADY DEPARTED. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN IA...WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS INTO WESTERN IL. MODEL FCSTS OF OMEGA/DIV-Q FIELDS INDICATE BEST SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING WAVE OCCURRING NOW...SO AM NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH CLRG OF LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH MODEL TSECTS MAINTAINING SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 900 HPA AS LOW LEVEL TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY. HGTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN THIS AFTN...AS NXT S/WV LIFTS OUT OF PLAINS AND CONTINUES AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW OVER NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN OR REFORM CLOUD COVER IN MOIST LLVL AIR MASS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM TNGT/SAT MRNG...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY NWRN CWA ALONG TRACK OF STRONGLY SHEARED VORT MAX ALNG CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS. FCST SNDGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE RAIN MAIN PCPN TYPE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIX OF RA/SN INTO NWRN COUNTIES AROUND RFD TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY ACCUM HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND WARM LLVLS. PCPN EXPECTED TO END BEFORE NOON SAT AS S/WV CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RDG BUILDS IN SAT AFTN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN LLVLS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUS EXPCT SOME CLRG FROM WEST DURG AFTN. CLDS XPCTD TO RETURN BY SUN MRNG HOWEVER...AS NXT S/WV IN THIS VRY ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN DVLPS WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO WRN GRTLKS. MAIN FORCING WITH SUNDAY SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...WITH NAM/GFS BOTH KEEPING PRECIP NORTH OF IL/WI BORDER.

TEMP WISE...STARTING OUT 15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL MAXES THIS MRNG...SO ANOTHER JANUARY DAY NEAR 50 DEG. BUMPED EARLY MRNG TEMPS UP BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE PRETTY SIMILAR NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO BIG DEVIATIONS.

SHOULD NOTE THAT WED NGT/THURS RAINFALL HAS LED TO SOME RISES ON AREA RIVERS. HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH NCRFC OVRNGT ON UPDATED CREST FORECASTS ON ILLINOIS AND LITTLE CALUMET RIVER BASINS. SEE KLOT FLOOD OUTLOOKS/WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...

600 AM CST

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN IOWA WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FT PER REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING. DESPITE MID LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THIS INVERSION AND A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. IN ADDITION...MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE WEAK LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 1500-2000 FT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER SPEED MAX/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. HARD TO DISCOUNT POTENTIAL OF -RA OR -DZ AT ANY TIME AFT 23Z BUT TRIED TO TIME CHANCES OF -RA IN THE TAF COINCIDING WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. WITH INCREASING LIFT THIS EVENING...HAVE TRENDED CIGS BACK DOWN TO LOWER END MVFR THIS EVENING...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF -RA/DZ. ALSO WILL CARRY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG THIS EVENING GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SFC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH AXIS. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AT ORD/MDW WITH THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AS SFC PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT.

MARSILI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE.

&&

$$

.DISCUSSION...

345 AM CST

S/WV INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING RAPIDLY NE ACROSS WRN/NRN GRTLKS RGN EARLY THIS AM. THIS S/WV TO MOV QUICKLY AWAY FROM FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY TO THE EAST AND RADAR DETECTABLE PCPN ALREADY DEPARTED. GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN IA...WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS INTO WESTERN IL. MODEL FCSTS OF OMEGA/DIV-Q FIELDS INDICATE BEST SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING WAVE OCCURRING NOW...SO AM NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH CLRG OF LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR WITH MODEL TSECTS MAINTAINING SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 900 HPA AS LOW LEVEL TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY. HGTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN THIS AFTN...AS NXT S/WV LIFTS OUT OF PLAINS AND CONTINUES AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW OVER NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN OR REFORM CLOUD COVER IN MOIST LLVL AIR MASS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM TNGT/SAT MRNG...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY NWRN CWA ALONG TRACK OF STRONGLY SHEARED VORT MAX ALNG CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS. FCST SNDGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE RAIN MAIN PCPN TYPE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIX OF RA/SN INTO NWRN COUNTIES AROUND RFD TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY ACCUM HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND WARM LLVLS. PCPN EXPECTED TO END BEFORE NOON SAT AS S/WV CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RDG BUILDS IN SAT AFTN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN LLVLS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUS EXPCT SOME CLRG FROM WEST DURG AFTN. CLDS XPCTD TO RETURN BY SUN MRNG HOWEVER...AS NXT S/WV IN THIS VRY ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN DVLPS WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO WRN GRTLKS. MAIN FORCING WITH SUNDAY SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...WITH NAM/GFS BOTH KEEPING PRECIP NORTH OF IL/WI BORDER.

TEMP WISE...STARTING OUT 15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL MAXES THIS MRNG...SO ANOTHER JANUARY DAY NEAR 50 DEG. BUMPED EARLY MRNG TEMPS UP BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE PRETTY SIMILAR NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO BIG DEVIATIONS.

SHOULD NOTE THAT WED NGT/THURS RAINFALL HAS LED TO SOME RISES ON AREA RIVERS. HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH NCRFC OVRNGT ON UPDATED CREST FORECASTS ON ILLINOIS AND LITTLE CALUMET RIVER BASINS. SEE KLOT FLOOD OUTLOOKS/WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR COMPLETE DETAILS.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION... 1016 PM CST

THE SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA TO EASTERN IOWA AT 04 UTC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 21 UTC FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE ARE MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE 3 MILES OR BETTER AS LONG AS THE WIND MAINTAINS ITS SPEED. THE ACARS SOUNDING SHOW AN INVERSION AT 5990 FEET AT ORD AT 0315 UTC AND 4090 FEET AT RFD AT 0339 UTC. THERE IS A WIND 18 TO 28 KNOTS ABOVE 1620 FT. THE KINETIC ENERGY MAY STILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WIND OF AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS. THE DAVENPORT SOUNDING AT 00 UTC SHOWS A SMALL DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE UP TO 4387 FT. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW MODEL SHOWS NEAR EQUILIBRIUM OF WATER VAPOR CONCENTRATION IN THE AIR AT THE MORNING TEMPERATURE UP TO 2700 FEET. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT BUT AFTER 10 UTC AND IN THE FORM OF TEMPO GROUPS.

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...GALE WARNING ENTIRE LAKE/NEARSHORE UNTIL 6PM CST THIS EVE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL AND IN WATERS 6PM TO MIDNIGHT TONITE.

&&

$$

.DISCUSSION... 310 PM CST

SHARPLY DELINEATED NW EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING FROM WAUKEGAN TO AMBOY ATTM IS HOLDING STEADY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL NWWD PROGRESSION EXPECTED...AS FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF H3 JET STREAK WHICH IS NOW IN PRIME LOCATION OVERHEAD PIVOTS/SHIFTS EWD LATE TONIGHT. 50KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TRANSPORTING VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS BRING H9 DEWPTS TO AROUND 9C BY 01Z...PRETTY UNUSUAL FOR JANUARY. NOW ACCUMULATING SFC WATER...SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...LESSENING WINDS...AND LATE NIGHT SUBSIDENCE...SHOULD COMBINE TO CREATE WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

SHORT-LIVED BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEHIND THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVR WRN MN REACHES NRN IL BY FRI NT AS APPROACHING MID/UPR TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE TO TAP INTO...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT FRI NT/SAT.

WK COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AFTN WITH SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVING BEHIND A FRONT ON SATURDAY. LOW CENTER REMAINING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE MOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED OVR THE DEEP SOUTH...SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING PRECIP LOCALLY.

CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY MAY BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION ON MONDAY NT. KEPT SILENT 20 POP IN FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BOOST THAT ONCE WITH SUCCESSIVE FCSTS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. BEYOND DAY 7...SIGNS ARE EMERGING THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE ARCTIC COLD POOL WILL SHIFT FROM ALASKA AND SIBERIA INTO WRN CANADA AND NWRN CONUS. SO A TASTE OF SOMETHING MORE RESEMBLING WINTER MAY BE ON THE HORIZON.

HANDEL

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION... 1016 PM CST

THE SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA TO EASTERN IOWA AT 04 UTC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 21 UTC FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE IFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE ARE MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE 3 MILES OR BETTER AS LONG AS THE WIND MAINTAINS ITS SPEED. THE ACARS SOUNDING SHOW AN INVERSION AT 5990 FEET AT ORD AT 0315 UTC AND 4090 FEET AT RFD AT 0339 UTC. THERE IS A WIND 18 TO 28 KNOTS ABOVE 1620 FT. THE KINETIC ENERGY MAY STILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WIND OF AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS. THE DAVENPORT SOUNDING AT 00 UTC SHOWS A SMALL DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE UP TO 4387 FT. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW MODEL SHOWS NEAR EQUILIBRIUM OF WATER VAPOR CONCENTRATION IN THE AIR AT THE MORNING TEMPERATURE UP TO 2700 FEET. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT BUT AFTER 10 UTC AND IN THE FORM OF TEMPO GROUPS.

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...GALE WARNING ENTIRE LAKE/NEARSHORE UNTIL 6PM CST THIS EVE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL AND IN WATERS 6PM TO MIDNIGHT TONITE.

&&

$$

.DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR OVER THE CONUS BTWN TROFFING OVER THE W AND RDG OFF THE SE COAST. TEMPS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS REMAIN WELL ABV NORMAL WITH SW FLOW E OF SHRTWV/SFC-H85 TROFFING MOVING THRU THE UPR MS VALLEY. 00Z H85 TEMPS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WERE 5-10C...BUT 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS INDICATE LYR BTWN H875-6 WAS QUITE DRY SO THAT H85 WBLB TEMP WAS NOT FAR FM 0C. DESPITE DRY AIR IN THE MID TROP AT THESE LOCATIONS...SOME PCPN AHEAD OF SHRTWV/TROFFING TO THE W WHERE 00Z DLH TAMDAR SDNG SHOW MID LVLS ARE MORE MOIST ALG AXIS OF SHARPER H8-7 FGEN IS MOVING TOWARD WRN LK SUP. MAINLY RA HAS FALLEN IN MN...BUT A FEW PLACES HAVE REPORTED SN WITH WBLB EFFECT LWRG TEMP PROFILE CLOSER TO 0C AS SHOWN ON MPX/DLH SDNGS. H3 WIND SPEEDS UP TO 140KT NOTED OVER UTAH IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV MOVING THRU WRN TROF.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PCPN TRENDS THIS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE UPR MS VALLEY...THEN PCPN CHCS AGAIN TNGT INTO SAT AS SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF WRN TROF AND INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS ON SAT. TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW IN THE GLFAK FCST CHALLENGE SAT NGT/SUN.

FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS SHOW SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR PCPN IN MN SHEARING OUT TO THE NE AND INTO ONTARIO BY THIS AFTN. BOTH MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT INDICATING STRIPE OF GREATEST QPF WL IMPACT THE WRN CWA ALG AXIS OF SHARPER H8-7 FGEN CLOSE TO H85 TROF AXIS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS FCST. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS 0.47 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT PCPN FALLING AT CMX BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS WOULD INDICATE RA...WBLB COOLING ALF UNDER BRIEFLY STRG FGEN/UVV SHOULD ALLOW A MIX WITH WET SNOW AS OBSVD UPSTREAM. WITH DRIER AIR ALF FARTHER E...EXPECT MAINLY JUST -DZ. EXPECT PCPN TO END SOON AFT 12Z...WHEN QVECTOR CNVGC/FGEN FCST TO EXIT TO THE NE. REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF SFC-H85 TROF DRIFTING ACRS THE AREA UNDER UPR CNVGC/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV. DESPITE DRYING TREND ALF THIS MRNG...SUSPECT SC WL LINGER AS SUBSIDENCE INVRN DVLPS ABV LINGERING LLVL MSTR. AND THEN WHEN SOME DRIER LLVL AIR NOW IN THE PLAINS (SFC DWPTS IN THE 20S VS THE 30S IN PLACE NOW) LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY...MORE MID/HI CLD IN SW FLOW ALF IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE WRN TROF SHOULD BE EXPANDING INTO THE FA. VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR SHOWING MAX TEMPS TDAY RANGING FM THE WELL ABV NORMAL UPR 30S OVER THE W TO NEAR 45 ACRS THE SCNTRL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AS INCOMING AIRMASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. RECORD HI TEMP OF 36 TDAY AT THE MQT NWS WL FALL (TEMP AT MIDNGT ALREADY 36)...THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WITH A DAILY RECORD HI TEMP.

TNGT...H3 WIND MAX NOW OVER UTAH FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GRT LKS BY 12Z SAT...WITH H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS FEATURE IMPACTING THE FA OVERNGT BEFORE DEPARTING ON SAT MRNG. UPR DVGC/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MUCH SHARPER OVER THE SE ZNS CLOSER TO DEPARTING SFC-H85 TROF/PACIFIC COLD FNT. GFS FCST SDNGS OVER THE SE ZNS SHOW SOME AIRMASS AT MNM-ISQ BECOMING RATHER MOIST THRU THE ENTIRE TROP ON THE NW EDGE OF SHARPER H8-7 FGEN...BUT DRIER AIR PERSISTING IN THE H7-9 LYR FM ERY-ESC A BIT FARTHER N AND W DEEPER INTO INCOMING MID LVL DRYING TDAY. WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...BUT ELIMINATE PCPN CHCS FARTHER TO THE NW EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW...WHERE GUIDANCE SUGS AIR SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LES ARRIVING LATE. GIVEN DISTRIBUTION OF 00Z H85 TEMPS ON THU EVNG THAT SHOW H85 TEMPS BLO -10C CONFINED N OF LK WINNIPEG... PREFER THE WARMER NAM/UKMET FCST TEMPS (ARND -8C AT CMX BY 12Z SAT). SO...WL GO WITH ONLY A 30 POP FOR SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES THERE.

FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF LEFT EXIT UPR DVGC/H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC OVER THE E EARLY ON SAT...SFC-H85 RDG FCST TO SWEEP INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. EXCEPT FOR LO CHC POPS OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE AFTN WITH MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS FOR LES AND OVER THE E EARLY BEFORE DEPARTURE OF LEFT EXIT DYNAMICS AND IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS FOR LES...DAY SHOULD BE DRY ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW FLURRIES RELATED TO PASSAGE OF WEAK SHRTWV IN THE MRNG. WITH ARRIVAL OF H85 THERMAL TROF IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK SHRTWV... SAT WL BE COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST BTWN -4C AND -8C STILL SUPPORT WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN WITH ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS/ACYC FLOW. PREFER HIER GFS FCST MOS TEMPS WITH INCOMING MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASS.

PER NCEP PREFERENCE...HAVE TENDED TO FOLLOW A SOMEWHAT FARTHER N TRACK ON SAT NGT/SUN FOR SHRTWV/SFC LO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z UKMET (VS NAM/GFS FCST) REGARDING DISPOSITION OF SHRTWV NOW IN THE GLFAK. SINCE SFC LO TRACKS WELL TO THE N...FA MAY FALL INTO DRY SLOT ON SUN...BEST SHOWN BY 00Z UKMET. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECMWF/GFS SHOW FAIRLY SGNFT 12HR H5 HGT FALLS ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS (UP TO 100M) AND SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. WL GO WITH HIEST CHC POPS OVER THE KEWEENAW...WHICH BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MSTR AND WHERE WLY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF SFC LO MAY OFFER CHC FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -8C TO -10C.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$ KC

.DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOB FROM KABR...ALONG WITH ACARS/TAMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM KATY...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW 700-750MB...WITH DRY LAYER EVEN DEEPER ON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN KSUX AREA AND 00Z KOAX RAOB. EFFECTS ON DRY AIR BECOMING MORE APPARENT ON RADAR MOSAIC WITH ECHOES BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER OVERALL AS THEY MOVE EAST. STILL SEEING SPORADIC SURFACE OBS REPORTING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOWERS APPEAR SHORTLIVED...AROUND 30 MINUTES OR SO...WITH MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. THUS HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO REFLECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK OK...THOUGH THINK IT WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO GET THERE THAN HOURLY GRIDS INDICATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW TEMP DECREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

NEW 00Z NAM STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND EVENT ON MONDAY WITH GENERAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...+5MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND 925-850MB WINDS OF 45-60KTS.

&&

.AVIATION... LAYER OF DRY AIR VERY PREVALENT ON EVENING SOUNDINGS BLO 7KFT AGL...AND DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE HAVING A TOUGHER TIME SATURATING THROUGH THIS DRY LAYER. ISOLATED -SHSN MAY STILL RESULT IN BRIEF DROP TO MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACRS ERN SD...BUT SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED AT ANY ONE LOCATION. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON TIMING/PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND HOW STRONG NW WNDS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT KHON AROUND 07/09Z...AT KFSD AROUND 07/12Z AND AT KSUX AROUND 07/13Z. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM CONTS TO EVOLVE TO OUR WEST...WITH THE CRUX OF IT MOVG THRU THE FSD FA TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. AREA 88D`S SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES THRU WRN SD ATTM...WITH RAP REPORTING SOME -SN. THE UPPER -DIV Q IS STRONG TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FM W TO E. IN ADDITION AT 06Z...A PRETTY GOOD JET STREAK EXISTS IN THIS AREA... SLIDING E AND SE AFTER MIDNIGHT PLACING MUCH OF THIS FA IN A SUBTLE LEFT EXIT RGN. THE TROP PRS FIELD DIVES BELOW 400MB...WITH THE CENTER OF IT WORKING ITS WAY INTO KS. BROAD SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT WITH TROP PRS RISES AND COLD THTE TROP ADV. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WANE RAPIDLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE GFS IS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE NAM IN THAT IT GIVES A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE H5 TROF...LINGERING THE SECOND LOBE IN OUR FA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A NEW FEATURE ON THIS MODEL AND WAS NOT FOLLOWED ATTM. STILL THOUGH...CHOSE TO LINGER SOME POPS OVR MUCH OF OUR E SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE THE DRY QPF. DYNAMICS ARE STILL STRONG IN OUR E SUNDAY MORNING...COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE FM H85-H6.

WAA IS NOTED TONIGHT IN THE LOW LVLS WITH SOME WIND CONTINUING... TEMPERING OUR LOWS. CAA FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY PRODUCING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO AN AVERAGE OF H85. SKIES WL ALSO CLEAR FM W TO E THRU THE DAY...SO MIXED TEMPS ALMOST FULLY FM H85...GIVEN THE STOUT NW FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC. ATTM...OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVY AS THE 925MB WINDS APPEAR TO BE JUST A BIT TOO LIGHT...AT ABOUT 30 TO 35 KTS MOST LOCATIONS TO WARRANT A HEADLINE ON SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER OUR WRN HALF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO OUR CWFA ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HGT FALLS ARE PRETTY GOOD...BUT OVERALL THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAKER THAN THE ONE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. IT IS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROGGING THE SFC LOW TO MOV DOWN THE FLOW THRU SW MN. AS WITH MANY CLIPPER SYSTEMS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DIGGING FURTHER WWD WHICH IS ONE REASON I DID NOT WANT TO EXTEND THE BELOW MENTIONED HIGH WIND WATCH EWD. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WRN HALF OF OUR FA HAS A VERY STRONG SFC PRS GRADIENT...EXCELLENT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND STOUT WINDS OFF THE SFC. OPTED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IN THE MO RIVER CORRIDOR FOR MONDAY. SNDGS FM KSUX TO K9V9 MIX TO AN AVERAGE OF 800MB...WHERE THE WINDS ARE A VERY STRONG AT 55 TO 60 KTS. PLUS...THE VALLEY PROVIDES A FUNNELING AFFECT WITH W TO NW SFC FLOW. GOOD PRS RISES EXIST ON MONDAY WITH 950-900MB LAPSE RATES 8.5 TO 9.5C. SO IT WL BE WINDY. TIME WL TELL IF WE HAVE TO EXPAND THE WATCH INTO THE MITCHELL AREA. THE JAMES VALLEY DOES HAVE SNOW COVER...WHICH HAS BEEN DESCRIBED AS HARD AS CEMENT BY OBSERVERS. ELSEWHERE IN OUR SW...SOME OF THE SNOW IS SLUSHY ATTM WHICH SHOULD REFREEZE AGAIN. SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT EXISTING SNOW BLOWING AROUND WL BAD. AND FOR FALLING SNOW BLOWING AROUND...WANTED TO KEEP THAT CLOSER TO THE LOW LVL LOW PRES TRACK WHICH LARGELY ELIMINATES THAT THREAT THRU MOST OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER E CLOSER TO THE LOW...THERE COULD BE ENUF SQUEEZE AND LENGTH OF DURATION...TO GET SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR NE QUARTER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WITH AREAS OF -SN. DID CONSIDER THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON A HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN OUR SW COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH EXTREME MECHANICAL MIXING...IT MAY OVERCOME THE SNOW COVER WHICH WOULD NORMALLY INHIBIT MIXING POTENTIAL.

WINDS WL TAPER OFF SLOWLY MON NIGHT...AND CERTAINLY ON TUE. OUR GOING FCST TEMPS LOOKED VERY GOOD. DID RAISE THE LOWS A FEW DEGS TUE MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND AND WIND. GOOD MIXING DAY AGAIN ON TUE.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WED THRU SAT WILL START VERY MILD AND DRY WED...THEN TURN COLDER THU AND EVEN COLDER FOR FRI AND SAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE MODELS ON THIS GENERAL PICTURE. EVEN LAST NIGHTS 00Z CANADIAN WHICH HAD UNREASONABLE UPPER RIDGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AROUND THU KEPT THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH POISED JUST N OF THE REGION WITH THE FRONT STILL S OF OUR FCST AREA. THE 12Z CANADIAN HAD COME IN LINE WITH ALL THE OTHER MODELS ON A DEEP COLD PUSH INTO THE PLAINS. THE NEAR CERTAINTY OF...SURPRISE...WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND MAKES THE TINIER TEMP DETAILS NOT THAT CRITICAL.

LESS AGREEMENT IS FOUND ON HANDLING OF WESTERN UPPER TROF AND THE NRN BRANCH WAVE WHICH SOME MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF... SQUELCHED THE SWRN TROF AND SWRLY UPPER FLOW BY FRI AND KEPT ANY SNOW S OF OUR FCST AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WHICH LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS BEEN SHOWING A DISTINCT THREAT OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW FRI INTO SAT. WITH SOME OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWING THIS AS WELL...IT SEEMS BEST TO MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR FRI AND SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE BATTLE BTWN DVLPG STG SWRN UPPER FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX INTO ANY SUSTEM AND THE NRN STREAM WAVE TRYING TO FLATTEN THIS FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-065-068>071. MN...NONE. IA...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR SIOUX CITY. NE...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$ JH

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLY TODAY IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST...BUT STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW. BUFKIT FORECAST AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND TURN TO SNOW. WHATEVER SNOW FALLS SHOULD MELT FAIRLY READILY AS WE HAVE HAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT YET ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NITE THRU NEXT FRIDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY AND LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT EARLY ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE CWA SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY TROF ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE ETA AND GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE WITHIN REASON OF EACH OTHER SO WILL TAKE A BLEND OF BOTH FOR TEMPERATURES THRU SUNDAY...THEN SIDE WITH THE COLDER GFS SUNDAY NITE AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

THE FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NITE AND TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NITE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NITE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NITE. THE AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. WHILE THE ECMWF/DGEX INDICATE THE SYSTEM MOVING THRU A BIT QUICKER THE 12Z CANADIAN TAKES A MUCH SLOWER APPROACH. THE MREF/GFS SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...THEREFORE WILL SIDE WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

NEXT FRIDAY BECOMES TRICKY AS THE 12Z GFS/00Z GEM LINGER THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE MREF DOES LINGER THE FRONT A BIT FARTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY... IT HOLDS OFF ON THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIP UNTIL FRIDAY NITE. THEREFORE WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY UNTIL NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE &&

$$ KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

$$ RDM/KURIMSKI WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE LOCAL STRONG GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...MAINLY THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WITH WARMER DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED WEAK NE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MODERATELY STRONG NLY WINDS ALOFT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT -10 MB SAN-TPH.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL...THERMAL AND GRADIENT SUPPORT FOR LOCAL STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES INTO MON. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNINGS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND EMPIRE WITH WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS INTO MON. THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS INTO MON FOR WARMING IN ALL AREAS. MORE WARMING W OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S LIKELY BY MON. A LITTLE COOLER IN MOST AREAS TUE AS THE HIGH ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKEN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.

.LONG RANGE (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...A COLD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG S OVER THE SW WED THROUGH FRI. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OVER WATER TRAJECTORY FOR A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THU THROUGH SAT. MUCH COLDER DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS E NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL UNDER CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH 7K FT EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY THIS EVENING. STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW WILL FUNNEL THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS LATER THIS MORNING...CREATING LOCALLY STRONGER AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS OF TURBULENCE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AND STRONG UP AND DOWN DRAFTS. ALSO MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ROTOR ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES AS THE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND EMPIRE. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LAXRFWSGX.

$$

PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...JAD

.MORNING UPDATE...

DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO INSERT ISLD THUNDER INTO SRN KY AS CURRENT DATA INDICATES SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THOUGH SDF ACARS SOUNDING INDICATED A WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAYER FROM 800-600MB. ALSO ADJUSTED THE BWG TAF TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/VICINITY THUNDER AND LOWER VIS FROM 1445-1600 UTC.

ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/TEMPS/WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL SOONER.

ZFP/HWO UPDATE OUT VERY SHORTLY.

AL

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. &&

$$

.SHORT TERM(AFTERNOON UPDATE)... TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER AS CLOUDINESS INCREASED AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO AND TAKE A WHILE BEFORE MOVING INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW PA MAY NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET WHICH IS AT 5:05 PM. LATEST TAMDAR DATA INDICATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES...AND ADJUSTED THE REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR A SHORT WHILE THIS MORNING. STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATER TODAY SHOULD AID IN A QUICK RETURN TO VFR. TOL/MFD THE LOWEST BUT EVEN THEY HAVE BEEN POPPING UP AND THEN DOWN THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE CLOUDS FOR POINTS EAST OF CLE THIS MORNING BUT THESE TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESE EVERYWHERE. RAIN TO ENTER THE PICTURE LATE IN THE DAY...AFT 5PM. THEN CONDITIONS GO DOWNHILL AGAIN. SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WITH IT A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE. LOW WILL PASS RIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA. PERIODS OF RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THEN ON THE BACKSIDE...BELIEVE IT OR NOT..PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AFTER 04Z. CHANGEOVER PROBABLY WON`T MAKE IT TO POINTS EAST OF CLE BY 12Z MON THOUGH. THEN FOR MON MARGINAL TEMPS AND DECREASING MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE IT THAT SNOWY AFTER ALL. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... NICE JET ALOFT AND MOISTURE PLUME INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WHICH WILL HELP TEMPER ANY FOG THAT IS DEVELOPING SO WILL REMOVE THREAT OF DENSE FOG ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOWER LAYERS AGAIN TODAY. WHILE GOOD JET DYNAMICS EXIST...DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN AND PCP WATER PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. NONETHELESS...GROUND IS SATURATED AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS. FOR THE TIME BEING MOST MODELS ADVERTISING ABOUT A HALF INCH OR BELOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL I SEE A BETTER THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN (3/4 INCH OR MORE). MODELS NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO CROSS EASTERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/WRF STILL FASTER WRAPPING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND LOW AND WILL COMPROMISE WITH WARMER GFS SOLUTION. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NW OH AND BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY NE OH AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK NW PA ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE TRYING TO TAPER OFF AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

BARELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW MONDAY AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY MORNING THERE SHOULD BE NO TRUE LAKE EFFECT. AIR DOES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY AND A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT WANT TO SOUND TOO SNOWY SINCE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND WIND WILL LIKELY BE BACKING FROM W TO SW AND THERE MAY BE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING. WILL BACK OFF POPS MON AFTRN INTO MON EVENING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN MON NGT AS NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES. WHILE IT SEEMS AS THOUGH EVERYONE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW I AM NOT SURE IT WILL ACCUMULATE MUCH. TRACK LOOKS PRETTY FAR SOUTH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. CERTAINLY THERE IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INCH OR TWO THOUGH AND WILL HAVE TO TRY TO REFINE FCST AS EVENT GETS CLOSER.

GFS TEMP GUIDANCE WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE TODAY AND SEEMS A CATEGORY TOO WARM AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN DEVELOPS. PREFER WARMER TEMP GUIDANCE TNGT ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OR EVEN A CATEGORY ABV GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP UNTIL MON MORN WHEN COLDER AIR WRAPS IN. LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY MONDAY AS CAA CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... EXTENDED FCST ON RECENT RUNS LOOKS RISKY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND WILL SEPARATE SOME TRUE ARCTIC AIR FROM SOME VERY MILD AIR. POSITION OF FRONT AND VARIOUS WAVES ON FRONT WHICH MAY DRIVE IT BACK NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE FROM TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OR 40S/50S? WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM PORTION OF FCST AND LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT NEW MODEL RUNS. YESTERDAYS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE A GOOD SLUG OF SNOW SHOWERS...WILL FORECAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THEN A CHANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THURSDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT RAIN. TEMPERATURES DON`T COOL OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT TO GET SOME SNOW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS N CENTRAL AND NW OHIO. LE...GALE WARNING. PA...GALE WARNING.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/THOMPSON LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA AVIATION...OUDEMAN

...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY DRY WEATHER WILL START THE WEEK...

...INSIDE SLIDER FOR LATE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE RETURN TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT LAX GRADIENTS ARE 8.7 MB OFFSHORE TO DAGGETT...8.8 MB OFFSHORE TO BAKERSFIELD AND 12.7 MB AND INCREASING TO TONOPAH. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD OFFSHORE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS TIME WERE NORTHEAST 53 GUSTING TO 85 AT CHILAO. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT TREND IS ONSHORE AT LAX-BFL...HOLDING LAX-DAG...AND INCREASING LAX-TPH. THIS IS EXPECTED AS THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE US A NICE WARM DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALMOST EVERYWHERE ARE UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH SOME AREAS UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES INCLUDING REDONDO...UCLA...PORTIONS OF MALIBU AND EVEN AVALON. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE GREAT BASIN HIGH SHIFTS TO COLORADO LATE TUESDAY AS GRADIENTS BEGIN TRENDING ONSHORE OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE WARM...BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. GRADIENTS BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY EVERYWHERE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP 5 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TUESDAYS HIGHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

REGARDLESS....THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT LOOKS GOOD RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK... BEFORE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD GIVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS HIGH SHIFTS ONSHORE AND FLATTENS TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST...AS AN INSIDE SLIDER DEVELOPS OVER THE PACNW. THIS INSIDE SLIDER MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND PASSES OVER LAS VEGAS BY LATE FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW THEN SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND SETS UP STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY WINDY NEXT WEEKEND...AGAIN.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THIS ONLY LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND S OF POINT CONCEPTION...AS WELL AS N OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT MUCH WEAKER TO THE NORTH. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...EXPECT STG UDDF AND LLWS ACROSS MANY AIR FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY KBUR AND KVNY. SOME SPEED SHEAR COULD AFFECT SOME AIRCRAFT NEAR LAX...BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WITH THE GREATEST UDDF AND LLWS.

KLAX WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 KT AT THE SURFACE. SOME SOME SPEED SHEAR COULD AFFECT AIRCRAFT BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX). RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX). WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DANIELSON AVIATION...KAPLAN

.SHORT TERM...

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYING MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA ALREADY. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN 12Z MODEL DEPICTION. RADAR ALSO CONFIRMS THIS WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FOR THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE FAILED TO CAPTURE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. FEEL MOISTURE MAY BE OVERDONE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...NAM-WRF DOES BRING A 150KT 300MB JET MAX INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH OUR EASTERN AREA IN FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD. CROSS SECTIONS FROM NAM-WRF ALSO SHOW A FAVORABLE NEGATIVE POTENTIAL VORTICITY AREA OVER TOP OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA. 850-925MB LAYER FAVORABLE FOR SNOW BUT BOUNDARY LAYER BORDERLINE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM TODAY WITH THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND ALL SNOW REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTH. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 1300M FEEL MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE FAR NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. REST OF AREA SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING BUT QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS NORTHERN WAVE MOVES IN. FAR NORTHEAST HAS BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION WITH ONE TO MAYBE TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. REST OF AREA SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO LOCALLY AN INCH. DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN WEST TO DROP WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. HAVE CUT MOS WEST BUT STAYED CLOSE IN THE EAST. MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM MONDAY GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER. CONTINUED WITH COLDER MAX TEMPS. COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER AND FLOW QUICKLY BACKING. STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE MAINLY AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD. A CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL DESCEND INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE USED NGM/NAMWRF/GFS BLEND AND GONE WITH LIKELY SNOW CHANCES EVERYWHERE WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPS COLDER THAN -5C AND 1000/850 THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 METERS INDICATE ALL SNOW. LEFT SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN TUESDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES RISING TO NEAR 17. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEP TROF DIGS OVER THE WEST CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST CONUS. THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE THE KEY TO TIMING...AMOUNTS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING THIS SYSTEM TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER RUNS ABANDONED THIS SOLUTION...ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN WITH LATER RUNS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SHALLOW COLD IS ABLE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN A LOCATION. IF THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT...EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVELS VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...SO HAVE STARTED PCPN WITH A MIX AT SBN. NOTICED ASW WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT A CALL TO WARSAW INDICATED JUST RAIN. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FIRST SYSTEM TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST. ANY SNOW OR MIX SHOULD END OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ005. MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ078-MIZ079. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...LASHLEY/SKIPPER LONG TERM...SKIPPER

.AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVELS VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...SO HAVE STARTED PCPN WITH A MIX AT SBN. NOTICED ASW WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT A CALL TO WARSAW INDICATED JUST RAIN. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FIRST SYSTEM TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST. ANY SNOW OR MIX SHOULD END OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE... AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U. S. 30. SOME VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE. HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A NOWCAST...HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FOG TO FREEZE ON SURFACES...RESULTING IN BLACK ICE.

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE SHORT TERM FCST WILL BE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 00Z NAM-WRF AND 00Z GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS. THUS...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WILL BE USED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED A S/WV TROF ACRS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS S/WV IS FCST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE TROF AXIS PASSING ACRS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WAS RAPIDLY MOVING NE INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VLYS. THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/WV LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/NRN TEXAS. THIS S/WV WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN AFOREMENTIONED S/WV. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE OUT OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VLY INTO ERN OHIO BY 06Z MONDAY. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACRS THE SE CWFA. THEN...AS THE MAIN S/WV APPROACHES THIS EVENING...DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM THE S/WV...COMBINED WITH 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WILL OCCUR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST LOW LVL THETA E AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SE OF THE FCST AREA. THUS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES...WHICH IS GOOD CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RIVER FLOODING THAT IS ONGOING. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT A BASIN AVERAGE OF A QUARTER INCH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOING JUST TO MAKE SURE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT INDICATE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE UPR TROF AXIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION QUICKLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL CHANGE PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR ON THE WAY FOR A FEW DAYS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE ANOTHER WARMUP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN POTENTIAL FOR A MORE LASTING PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER MORE WINTRY WEATHER STARTING NEXT WEEKEND. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A CLIPPER MON NGT THEN LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BEHIND IT TUE AND TUE NGT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORM OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH NAM/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON INITIALIZATION OF THIS FEATURE IN H5 HEIGHT FIELDS...AND HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS ON TRACK/AMPLITUDE. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS WAVE...AND PREFER THIS STRONGER SPECTRAL MODEL SOLUTION OVER THE NAM GIVEN SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SHOULD SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. A SIMPLE GARCIA METHOD WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUM GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWING RATHER WELL DEFINED...ALBEIT WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION PROGGED TO PASS OVER MOST OF THE CWA. ALSO SOME INDICATION OF WEAK BANDING POTENTIAL WITH A SMALL AREA OF NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV ATOP FRONTOGENESIS REGION. BEST EARLY ESTIMATE IS A GENERAL INCH OR SO ACCUM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FRAME.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TO THE MESOSCALE. ANOTHER CAA SURGE BEHIND CLIPPER...THIS TIME ON MORE FAVORABLE NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY TUE AM. FLOW APPEARS WELL ALIGNED...AND INSTABILITY QUITE FAVORABLE WITH A MODERATE COLLIER INDEX. MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE. NAM IS QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF QUALITY OF MOISTURE...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR AREAS FAVORED IN NW FLOW FOR TUE INTO TUE NGT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA AND BACKING FLOW SHUTTING OFF ANY LAKE EFFECT. WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW NEEDED DRY DAYS. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...MAJOR TROUGH RELOADS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS TRUE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INITIALLY INTO THE WEST...AND THEN BLEEDS SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO SET UP FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER MAJOR QPF EVENT IN THIS REGION. INITIAL SURGE OF WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID THU NGT INTO FRI. AFTER THAT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO PLACEMENT OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND ABILITY OF LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR TO PENETRATE INTO THE CWA. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY BAD FOR HANDLING ARCTIC AIRMASSES SUCH AS THIS. WILL KEEP GENERIC RA/SN MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE AS TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ005.

MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ078-MIZ079.

OH...NONE. LM...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY/HICKMAN UPDATE...HICKMAN/LASHLEY AVIATION...SKIPPER/LASHLEY LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SKIPPER

.SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...SHRTWVS TO NOTE WERE OVER SE MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING AND A 17Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM BRAINERD...HAS HELPED SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF DULUTHS FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. PER LOWER VISIBILITIES SEEN AT IWD AND CMX. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST AS SEEN ON THE 16Z SAWYER TAMDAR SOUNDING...COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 40S READINGS IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE THESE READINGS AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE....1000MB LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR PICKLE LAKE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR DUBUQUE. 850MB TEMPS FALL NEARLY 5C BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROM THE PRESENT -4C READINGS TO AROUND -9C AS SEEN ON THE BRAINERD SOUNDING. TO THE WEST OF THIS COOLER AIR...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR (NOTED BY THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.19 INCHES ON THE 12Z BIS SOUNDING) WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 995MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ALBERTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL CROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS. DPVA AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSLATION EASTWARD OF THE SNOW OVER DULUTHS AREA ACROSS THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS...WHICH HAS HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SNOW SO FAR ALSO PRESENTS THIS IDEA...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED MOST OF IT FOR THE FORECAST. THEREFORE... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE OF 700MB OMEGA OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH RESULTS IN THE MODEL PRODUCING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH SINCE THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS FEATURE. SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC FEATURE...HAVE WENT WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS NEAR 10 TO 1...WHICH RESULTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL.

AFTER THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL PASSES...COLDER 850MB TEMPS SEEN UPSTREAM MOVE IN (SHOWN TO COOL TO -10 TO -12C). WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IN OVER THE PLAINS MAY HINDER THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. MODELS...EVEN HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS...REFLECT THIS BY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE STILL KEPT AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODELS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE ARE HINTS OF LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING TONIGHT THAT MAY HELP TO FOCUS AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NEARLY CUT IN HALF FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE DRIER...LOWER INVERSION LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. GIVEN WNW FLOW...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

GFS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST 00Z TUE WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND THIS RIDGING POKES INTO THE CWA ON WED. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I290K SURFACES 12Z WED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN WONDERING IF POPS SHOULD BE IN FOR WED. WILL PUT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS FOR WED. LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT ALSO ENTERS INTO THE PICTURE FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5C AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -10C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ANYWAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KIWD...KCMX AND KMQT SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3000-4000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE KERY BUFKIT SOUNDING HAS INVERSION HEIGHT 5000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE. ALL SOUNDINGS THOUGH HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR WHICH COULD BE A PROBLEM. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OFF THE GFS DOWN TO -14C TO -16C WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURE OF 3C TO 4C...IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA TO THE WEST AND EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS AND WILL NOT PUT UP ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS IS STILL TROUBLING. WHEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS HAVE HAPPENED IN THE PAST...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LESS AND SNOWFALL RATIONS ALSO TEND TO BE LESS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. THINKING THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 9 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NOW AND THIS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT THROUGH 24 HOURS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR WHICH THEY SEEMED REASONABLE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z THU. TROUGHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST 00Z FRI INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CWA ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR 00Z SAT AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STAY TO THE WEST THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT EXTENDED FORECAST TO DEAL WITH WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD AND COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS OCCURS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJENS AND ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND EXTENDED IS NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

AJ (SHORT TERM) MICHELS (LONG TERM)

.SYNOPSIS... 20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN U.S.. WITHIN THE TROUGH...SHRTWVS TO NOTE WERE OVER SE MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER. DPVA AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN ON THE 12Z INL SOUNDING AND A 17Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM BRAINERD...HAS HELPED SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF DULUTHS FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN U.P. PER LOWER VISIBILITIES SEEN AT IWD AND CMX. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST AS SEEN ON THE 16Z SAWYER TAMDAR SOUNDING...COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 40S READINGS IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE THESE READINGS AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE....1000MB LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR PICKLE LAKE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR DUBUQUE. 850MB TEMPS FALL NEARLY 5C BEHIND THIS FRONT...FROM THE PRESENT -4C READINGS TO AROUND -9C AS SEEN ON THE BRAINERD SOUNDING. TO THE WEST OF THIS COOLER AIR...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR (NOTED BY THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.19 INCHES ON THE 12Z BIS SOUNDING) WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 995MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ALBERTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA WILL CROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS. DPVA AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSLATION EASTWARD OF THE SNOW OVER DULUTHS AREA ACROSS THE CWA. THE 12Z GFS...WHICH HAS HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SNOW SO FAR ALSO PRESENTS THIS IDEA...AND THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED MOST OF IT FOR THE FORECAST. THEREFORE... HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL MOVES ACROSS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE OF 700MB OMEGA OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AT 00Z THIS EVENING...WHICH RESULTS IN THE MODEL PRODUCING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH SINCE THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS FEATURE. SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC FEATURE...HAVE WENT WITH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS NEAR 10 TO 1...WHICH RESULTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL.

AFTER THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL PASSES...COLDER 850MB TEMPS SEEN UPSTREAM MOVE IN (SHOWN TO COOL TO -10 TO -12C). WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 4C...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IN OVER THE PLAINS MAY HINDER THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. MODELS...EVEN HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS...REFLECT THIS BY SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. HAVE STILL KEPT AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODELS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE ARE HINTS OF LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING TONIGHT THAT MAY HELP TO FOCUS AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE NEARLY CUT IN HALF FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE DRIER...LOWER INVERSION LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. GIVEN WNW FLOW...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN U.P. AND LOCATIONS EAST OF MARQUETTE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

GFS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST 00Z TUE WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND THIS RIDGING POKES INTO THE CWA ON WED. GFS SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I280K-I290K SURFACES 12Z WED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS QUITE DEEP. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN WONDERING IF POPS SHOULD BE IN FOR WED. WILL PUT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS FOR WED. LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT ALSO ENTERS INTO THE PICTURE FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5C AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -10C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT ANYWAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LAKE EFFECT WILL BE THE PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KIWD...KCMX AND KMQT SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3000-4000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE WHILE KERY BUFKIT SOUNDING HAS INVERSION HEIGHT 5000 FEET MON NIGHT AND TUE. ALL SOUNDINGS THOUGH HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR WHICH COULD BE A PROBLEM. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OFF THE GFS DOWN TO -14C TO -16C WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURE OF 3C TO 4C...IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA TO THE WEST AND EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS AND WILL NOT PUT UP ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS IS STILL TROUBLING. WHEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS HAVE HAPPENED IN THE PAST...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LESS AND SNOWFALL RATIONS ALSO TEND TO BE LESS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO. THINKING THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 9 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NOW AND THIS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT THROUGH 24 HOURS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJMVR WHICH THEY SEEMED REASONABLE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z THU. TROUGHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST 00Z FRI INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CWA ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR 00Z SAT AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STAY TO THE WEST THROUGH SUN. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT EXTENDED FORECAST TO DEAL WITH WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD AND COLDER AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS OCCURS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO ADJENS AND ADJMXR FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND EXTENDED IS NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING EAST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR. &&

$$

AJ (SHORT TERM) MICHELS (LONG TERM)

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST OHIO BY 06Z. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE CEILING IN RAIN WILL START AS VFR AND THEN LOWER...WHILE THE VISIBILITY SHOULD QUICKLY GO TO MVFR AND THEN IFR. WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN RAIN WHILE WE WAIT FOR SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW AFTER 05Z. THE TOL AND FDY AREAS MAY JUST GET BRUSHED WITH SOME RAIN AS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST REGION. THE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY ON MONDAY SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE EAST OF CLEVELAND. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GO VFR EITHER LATE IN THE PERIOD OR AFTER 18Z EXCEPT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM(AFTERNOON UPDATE)... TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER AS CLOUDINESS INCREASED AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO AND TAKE A WHILE BEFORE MOVING INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW PA MAY NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET WHICH IS AT 5:05 PM. LATEST TAMDAR DATA INDICATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES...AND ADJUSTED THE REGION IN THE UPPER 30S. &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... NICE JET ALOFT AND MOISTURE PLUME INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK WHICH WILL HELP TEMPER ANY FOG THAT IS DEVELOPING SO WILL REMOVE THREAT OF DENSE FOG ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOWER LAYERS AGAIN TODAY. WHILE GOOD JET DYNAMICS EXIST...DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT RETURN AND PCP WATER PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. NONETHELESS...GROUND IS SATURATED AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS. FOR THE TIME BEING MOST MODELS ADVERTISING ABOUT A HALF INCH OR BELOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL I SEE A BETTER THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN (3/4 INCH OR MORE). MODELS NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO CROSS EASTERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM/WRF STILL FASTER WRAPPING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND LOW AND WILL COMPROMISE WITH WARMER GFS SOLUTION. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT NW OH AND BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY NE OH AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK NW PA ALTHOUGH PCPN WILL BE TRYING TO TAPER OFF AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

BARELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW MONDAY AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY MORNING THERE SHOULD BE NO TRUE LAKE EFFECT. AIR DOES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LATER MONDAY AND A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT WANT TO SOUND TOO SNOWY SINCE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL AND WIND WILL LIKELY BE BACKING FROM W TO SW AND THERE MAY BE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING. WILL BACK OFF POPS MON AFTRN INTO MON EVENING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN MON NGT AS NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES. WHILE IT SEEMS AS THOUGH EVERYONE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW I AM NOT SURE IT WILL ACCUMULATE MUCH. TRACK LOOKS PRETTY FAR SOUTH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. CERTAINLY THERE IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INCH OR TWO THOUGH AND WILL HAVE TO TRY TO REFINE FCST AS EVENT GETS CLOSER.

GFS TEMP GUIDANCE WARMER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE TODAY AND SEEMS A CATEGORY TOO WARM AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN DEVELOPS. PREFER WARMER TEMP GUIDANCE TNGT ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OR EVEN A CATEGORY ABV GUIDANCE AS TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP UNTIL MON MORN WHEN COLDER AIR WRAPS IN. LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY MONDAY AS CAA CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... EXTENDED FCST ON RECENT RUNS LOOKS RISKY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS NEXT COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND WILL SEPARATE SOME TRUE ARCTIC AIR FROM SOME VERY MILD AIR. POSITION OF FRONT AND VARIOUS WAVES ON FRONT WHICH MAY DRIVE IT BACK NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE FROM TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OR 40S/50S? WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM PORTION OF FCST AND LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT NEW MODEL RUNS. YESTERDAYS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE A GOOD SLUG OF SNOW SHOWERS...WILL FORECAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THEN A CHANCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THURSDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT RAIN. TEMPERATURES DON`T COOL OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT TO GET SOME SNOW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...VARIOUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS N CENTRAL AND NW OHIO. LE...GALE WARNING. PA...GALE WARNING.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/THOMPSON LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA

.DISCUSSION... WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH NOTHING SEEN TODAY WILL COMPARE TO WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FRONTAL ZONE WELL CLEAR OF CWA NOW...AND NW WINDS RUSHING IN. MAIN PRESSURE RISES NOW IN JAMES VALLEY OF AROUND 3HPA/3H... AND VARIETY OF OBS PLATFORMS SHOW ARND 40 KTS IN LOWER GATES. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS JUST NOT ABLE TO TAP FLOW ALFT AS HAVE HAD SOME CAA AT LOW LVLS THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT EXTRA DRAG FROM SNOWCOVER IN W. 1608Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSUX SHOWS EXACTLY THIS PROCESS...WITH UNDERCUTTING WEDGE OF COOLING LIMITING MIXING HEIGHT. THIS SNOWCOVER TO W ALSO LKLY TO LIMIT WHAT MIXING MIGHT OCCUR WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE...AS CLOUDS CLEAR SOMEWHAT MORE RAPIDLY W TO E. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGEST THAT TOWARD E WHERE SOME BARE GROUND AND ALG/AHEAD OF PRESSURE RISES...MAY GET A COUPLE SPOTS TOWARD LOWER MO VLY INTO EARLY AFTN THAT TOUCH THE LOW END OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH...BUT DOES NOT SEEM WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HOLDING ON TO ADVY. AFTER COLLABORATION...WL DROP THE SHORT TERM WIND ADVY...BUT HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS ON MONDAY. MUCH STRONGER WNDS APPEAR IN ORDER WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND AGEOSTROPHIC SUPPORT TO SFC GRADIENT.

SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES WOULD SEEM TO BE IMPORTANT TO EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND ONGOING AREA FROM AROUND KMML TOWARD KLYV... AS ONLY WHERE MID CLOUDS MOVING ACRS LOWER DECK SHOWING ANY ONGOING PCPN. WITH AREAS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH BACK EDGE OF UPR DIV Q SUPPORT...WL USE TO DEFINE DIMINISHING THREAT...WITH PERHAPS SMALL RISK OF MEASURABLE ACRS SW MN INTO MIDDAY.

PLAYED SOMEWHAT WITH NONDIURNAL TREND TO TMPS AS CONTINUED FALL RIGHT IN LOW LVL CAA ZONE. ALSO...WITH START OF STABILIZING WAA INTO W DURING AFTN OVER SNOWCOVER ALONG WITH ALBEDO EFFECT OF SUNSHINE ON SNOWCOVER...DROPPED TMPS BACK A BIT OVER W.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A COUPLE WINDY DAYS FOR THE REGION. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE THROUGH SE SD THIS MORNING. WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE WEST. WILL SEE WINDS APPROACH 30 MPH SUSTAINED INTO THE WRN FSD CWA. DID ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR TODAY...LARGELY FOR THE SAKE OF COLLABORATION...BUT WINDS DO LOOK MARGINAL EITHER WAY. BEST PRESSURE RISES WILL DRIVE THE WINDS IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE BETTER MIXING WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE IN THE EAST LATER TODAY. DO EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DROP IN THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BY EVENING IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY REAL ACCUMULATION.

TOMORROW WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY...AS A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOMORROW MORNING AND ACROSS MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. THE MAGNITUDE WILL BE LESS FARTHER N AND E...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS A QUESTION...WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...MOST LIKELY INTO SW MN WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED...LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BY WEEKS END...AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... LINGERING MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN ACRS TWB243 AND ERN PORTIONS OF TWB302...BUT WL BE ENDING BY 20-21Z AS CLEARING W OF INTERSTATE 29 AT 16Z MOVES STEADILY EWRD...WITH CLEARING ARND 18Z AT KFSD...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 19Z AT KSUX. SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL FOR KHON FROM 08Z-12Z AND KFSD 10Z-14Z WITH NARROW FRONTAL BAND OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...WHICH WL BE MORE LKLY HEADING EWRD THRU TWB243.

BIG CONCERN FOR END OF 18Z TAF PERIOD IS WIND. 16Z-18Z PD LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO SEE SIG INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. STRONGER WNDS WL BE JUST AFTER VALID TAF PD...LKLY SUSTAINED OVER 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TOWARD 50 KTS FOR KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR SDZ050-057-058-063-064-065-068>071. MN...NONE. IA...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY MONDAY EVENING IAZ031. NE...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE MONDAY MORNING THRU EARLY MONDAY EVENING NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

CHAPMAN/LIEBL/GH