AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSGX 930 AM PST FRI JAN 12 2007
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE VERY COLD AT NIGHT
AND IN THE EARLY MORNING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY INLAND AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
BUSY MORNING WITH SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERNS. BACK EDGE OF THIS
IMPULSE SHOULD BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 1200 PST. MAIN TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT....THEN MOVES
EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RAISES CONCERN ABOUT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON NORTH SLOPES OF SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS AND WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF REMAINING
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE AROUND ISLANDS AND INSTABILITY OVER
WATER TONIGHT GENERATING CONVECTION OVER WATER THAT MOVES ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS. MAY BE UPPING
POPS IN THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE...THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...SNOW FLURRIES FOR MOUNTAINS AND ICE PELLETS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE OF OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING FORECAST...WIND CHILL AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. WIND SPEEDS/TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN FORECAST
GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -12 AND -25 DEGREES OVER SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 AM SATURDAY. MAY MAKE SOME
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
MIGHT SHORTEN THIS TIME SPAN. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS VALLEYS/DESERTS/AND COASTAL AREAS 1 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. STILL SORTING OUT WHICH AREAS WILL GET FREEZE WARNING AND
WHICH WILL GET FROST ADVISORY...BUT LEANING TOWARDS FREEZE WARNING
FOR INLAND EMPIRE/VALLEYS AND COACHELLA VALLEY AND FROST ADVISORY
COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS.
MAY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR INLAND VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY PORTION WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z NKX SOUNDING INDICATES THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 7000
FEET THIS MORNING. MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM DEPARTURES OUT OF
KSAN INDICATE THE INVERSION HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 6500 FEET BY
SUNRISE WITH A STRONGER INVERSION SHOWING UP AROUND 12000 FEET.
LAYERS OF STRATOCU OVER THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST SCATTERED LAYER
AROUND 3000 FEET MSL WITH ANOTHER BROKEN LAYER AROUND 4000 FEET AND
ANOTHER LAYER AROUND 6000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID
CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WHICH SHOULD WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS SCATTERING OUT BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AT AREA AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE/ROTOR ACTIVITY ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY NEAR KPSP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE/ROTOR
MOVING TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS NEAR KONT AND
KSBD SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR STRONG POST FRONTAL
WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. THE RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD WIND
SWELL (4-5 SECONDS) COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LONGER PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL (8-10 SECONDS) FROM 7 TO 9 FEET WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM...HIGH DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE ABOVE
2000 FEET...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM...SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SEE LAXWSWSGX.
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 8 PM. SEE
LAXNPWSGX.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT...SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS TO BE
ISSUED AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...COASTAL
SECTIONS...INLAND VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. SEE LAXCWFSGX.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX.
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWER DESERTS FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. SEE LAXNPWSGX.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...INLAND VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS...TO BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNON.
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
AFDLOT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007
.UPDATE...
WE UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WAS BASED
ON RADAR ECHOS. THE SOUNDING AT DVN THIS MORNING SUGGEST DRIZZLE AND
MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT IS DRY IN THE CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA.
THE ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD SHOWS DRIZZLE FOR NOW. BUT AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES IN THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL WE SEE HOW THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WHEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GO BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES...
500 AM CST
SHORT WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
IS NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHER ONTARIO ND A THIRD INTO MN. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW IN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OVERNIGHT AND
IS LOCATED FROM FAR SE WI INTO NORTHERN AND W CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHEAST TODAY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY BY 00Z SAT...THE COLD AIR WILL BE HELD
OFF FOR A WHILE AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH
WOODS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR STAYS
IN NORTHERN CANADA WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FROM THE WESTERN
U.S. TROF REACHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEVERAL FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CONCERNING PRECIP TYPES AND TIMING. SHALLOWER COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE FA THE COLD HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER S VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
COOL LOWER PORTION OF COLUMN TO SUPPORT SOME PL ACROSS THE NRN PARTS
OF THE FA TODAY. WITH BOUNDARY WELL S...SFC WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG IT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL KEEP MAIN PRECIP AREA ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL IL INTO MUCH OF IND...BUT WITH WSW FLO CONTINUING OVR
THE FA AHEAD OF THE H8 TROF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAY ENCROACH INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A RANGE FROM LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NW TRANSITIONING TO A
BAND OF MIXED RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...THEN JUST RAIN IN THE
FAR SE COUNTIES.
AS WESTERN UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OUT OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY MODELS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED H8 CIRCULATION TO TREK
FROM MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND TO SE LOWER MI BY 12Z MON. THIS PUTS
THE REGION AT RISK FOR A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DEPTH OF COLD AIR IN LO LEVELS AND
HOW MUCH WAA ADVECTION OCCURS ABOVE THIS COLD LAYER WILL DETERMINE
WHERE PRECIP TRANSITIONS FROM PURE SN TO MIXED SNOW AND SLEET. ATTM
THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FA AS MODELS
ONLY INDICATING WEAK H8 FLOW NWRD OVER THE COLD DOME. NECESSITY FOR
SOME SORT OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF FA BUT NEED TO HAVE
DETAILS MORE CLEARLY INDICATED FOR THAT.
FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK COLD BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF ORDINARY
FOR MID JAN...AT LEAST DURING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER. COLD DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE VERY LONG LIVED AS BY LATE WEEK TEMPS MODERATE ONCE
AGAIN WITH UPPER FLOW RETURNING TO OFF OF PACIFIC.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
1200 PM CST
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH FROM CURRENT
POSITION INVOF A ORD-PNT LINE. AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS THE VERY MOIST AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIFR
CIGS ARE RESULTING. SCT -SN/RA OVR SERN IA IS TRACKING NEWD AT 60KTS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AT CURRENT
PACE...THIS PRECIP SHOULD REACH RFD AROUND 19Z AND ORD/MDW/DPA
AROUND 20Z. LOW LEVEL TEMPS STILL ABV FREEZING BUT WILL BE DIPPING
BELOW THAT BY EVENING IN THE RFD AREA. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COOL
BELOW 0 DEG C AT THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING.
SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER BTWN THE SFC AND ~5KFT SHOULD ONLY BE
ABOUT -5 TO -8C AT ITS COLDEST POINT. THUS...SNOWFLAKE GENERATION
OVERNIGHT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO HAPPEN...LEAVING SUPERCOOLED LIQUID
(FZDZ) THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. CIGS SHOULD
CLIMB BACK INTO MVFR RANGE BY MORNING AS 1035-MB HIGH TO THE NW
NUDGES DRIER AIR DEEPER INTO OUR AREA.
HANDEL
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
AFDIWX 905 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIP THIS EVE. HAVE SEEN A
COUPLE WAVES OF DRIZZLE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND
THIS EVE AS WK TROFS MOVG THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT TO THE GENERAL OVER-RUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE. MORE SGFNT
PRECIP OVER WEST CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES NE THIS
EVE AND 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED
TODAY OVER OUR AREA. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVG THROUGH MO MAY
NOT REACH US UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. HWVR, WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALREADY MOVG THROUGH THE AREA, THINK IT`S LIKELY
THAT MORE OF THIS LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SO WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH ATTM APPEARS THE MOST SGFNT PRECIP DURING THIS ADVISORY MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
STNRY FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVE. SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
WAS OVER NRN INDIANA WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUING TO OVERRUN
FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WK TROF MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVE. SBN SHOULD STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WHILE EXPECTING TEMPS WILL DROP ENOUGH AT FWA WITH
DIURNAL COOLING AND WK LOW LEVEL CAA FOR DRIZZLE TO BEGIN FREEZE
THIS EVE. AREA OF A LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL AND MO
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP LIFTING NE
INTO SWRN MO. THIS PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH TAF SITES 07Z-09Z.
PRECIP SHOULD END AT SBN TOMORROW AFTN BUT LIKELY LINGER AT FWA
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND SFC WAVE MOVG
ALONG IT. EXPECT SLIGHT DIURNAL CLIMB IN TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CHANGE
FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN AT FWA BY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE 12Z NAM-WRF THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE THERMAL PROFILES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE
GFS AS SEEN BY MOST CURRENT TAMDAR DATA.
AT 19Z...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT.
MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED FROM ONTARIO WESTWARD
INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VLY. COLDER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FCST VIA SFC NE FLOW. THE FORECAST DILEMMA FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE AND
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT PCPN TYPE.
FOR TONIGHT...A TANDEM OF UPR LVL S/WVS WILL ROTATE NE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VLY REGION FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER
VLY. THESE S/WVS WILL PROVIDE UPR SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL LIFT. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM...MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT FROM THE S/WVS AND THE LIFT FROM MOIST...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE PCPN TO BREAK OUT FROM W TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA AND
WITH A WARM TONGUE OF AIR EXPECTED ALOFT...PCPN WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT...MEASURING 0.05 OF AN INCH
OR LESS. HOWEVER...ANY ICE WILL BE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL.
HENCE...WILL ISSUE WINTER WX AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
TONIGHT STARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BY AFTN AS AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS PIVOT OFF TO
THE NE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APCH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING...SPREADING
WIDESPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE REGION. KEEPING THIS IN MIND...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS. ANY FREEZING RAIN BY AFTN WILL PROBABLY NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
TO KEEP HEADLINES SOMEWHAT SIMPLISTIC WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY AS ICING WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS (ANOTHER 0.05 OF AN INCH). ALSO...THIS WILL MATCH UP WITH THE
LONG TERM FORECASTER/S PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME DUE TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
VERY CHALLENGING LONG TERM WITH THE FOCUS CONTINUING TO LIE WITH
POTENTIAL MAJOR MIXED PRECIP EVENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A WELL DEVELOPED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A DEEP PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH PWAT SOME 2-3 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR JAN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...ONLY
THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS ATTEMPTING TO
UNDERCUT THE CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.
SIMILAR TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE STRONGER AND
FARTHER NW SOLUTION OF THE NAM OVER THE FLATTER AND SUPPRESSED GFS
SOLUTION. THE NAM HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM
AND THE UKMET FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ON SUNDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF MEAN WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH EJECTION WITH AREA OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
LIFT SUN NGT INTO MON AM. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...FEEL ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL BE UNDER-FORECASTING QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR.
SIGNIFICANT QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.
NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. AGAIN...FAVORED THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES IN
FAVOR OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK...WHICH WOULD IMPLY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FAVORABLE FOR FZRA AND IP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH TENDENCY TOWARDS
MORE SLEET FARTHER NORTH WITH A DEEPER NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER. THE
ONLY PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW SUN NGT BASED ON
CURRENT 12Z NAM RUN WOULD BE THE FAR NW CORNER FROM NEAR MCY TO BEH.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MENTION IN
GRIDS AND INCREASED FZRA/IP MENTION. LEFT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA AS MAINLY RAIN SUN NGT...POSSIBLY SOME FZRA LATE AS TEMPS COOL
TO NEAR FREEZING. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN NGT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR A
COMBINATION OF FZRA AND SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MIX AS WELL IN
THE FAR NW. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SAME TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING
AND ALSO POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT TRACK AND SURFACE TEMPS...BUT IF THE EXPECTED GREATER QPF
VERIFIES COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATION FOR A
PORTION OF THE CWA.
ON MONDAY SLOWER/WARMER NAM STILL FAVORS A MIXED BAG IN THE
MORNING...THEN AS LOW/MID LEVEL CAA RAMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON ANY
REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. FROM LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUE NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. 12Z NAM BUFKIT ANALYSIS
SHOWING MODERATE COLLIER INDEX AND FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF AMBIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE BENEATH AN
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 7K FEET. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF...AND WITH FOCUS ON SYNOPTIC
EVENT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. FOR NOW
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SE OF THE LAKE WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CHANCE POPS IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER
OF FORECAST FROM TUE NGT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS JUST ABOUT STALLED OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC AND SURROUNDING RADARS INDICATE THAT PCPN
HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACRS THE FCST AREA...AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY. THEN...SVRL WEAK WX
DISTURBANCES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A RETURN TO ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
MOIST ADVECTION...WILL CAUSE PCPN TO FORM AFTER 06Z...WITH AREAL
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 12Z SUNDAY. COLDER AIR HAS FILTERED
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NRN INDIANA...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BULGE OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FZRA AND SLEET. AT THIS POINT...KSBN HAS
THE BEST CHC FOR SOME SLEET WHILE KFWA SHOULD ONLY SEE FZRA. CIGS
ARE IN THE IFR CATEGORY THIS AFTN...AND THEY WILL DROP INTO THE LIFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE ONSET OF PCPN. VSBYS TOO WILL DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PCPN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-
INZ033-INZ034.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ008-INZ009-INZ013-INZ015-
INZ016-INZ017-INZ018.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-
INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-INZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006- INZ007-INZ012-INZ014.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK
AVIATION/UPDATE...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
AFDIWX 650 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007
.AVIATION...
STNRY FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVE. SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
WAS OVER NRN INDIANA WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUING TO OVERRUN
FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WK TROF MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVE. SBN SHOULD STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WHILE EXPECTING TEMPS WILL DROP ENOUGH AT FWA WITH
DIURNAL COOLING AND WK LOW LEVEL CAA FOR DRIZZLE TO BEGIN FREEZE
THIS EVE. AREA OF A LITTLE HEAVIER RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL IL AND MO
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP LIFTING NE
INTO SWRN MO. THIS PRECIP EXPECTED TO REACH TAF SITES 07Z-09Z.
PRECIP SHOULD END AT SBN TOMORROW AFTN BUT LIKELY LINGER AT FWA
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND SFC WAVE MOVG
ALONG IT. EXPECT SLIGHT DIURNAL CLIMB IN TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CHANGE
FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN AT FWA BY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE 12Z NAM-WRF THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE THERMAL PROFILES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE
GFS AS SEEN BY MOST CURRENT TAMDAR DATA.
AT 19Z...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT.
MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED FROM ONTARIO WESTWARD
INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VLY. COLDER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FCST VIA SFC NE FLOW. THE FORECAST DILEMMA FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE AND
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT PCPN TYPE.
FOR TONIGHT...A TANDEM OF UPR LVL S/WVS WILL ROTATE NE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VLY REGION FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER
VLY. THESE S/WVS WILL PROVIDE UPR SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL LIFT. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM...MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT FROM THE S/WVS AND THE LIFT FROM MOIST...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE PCPN TO BREAK OUT FROM W TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA AND
WITH A WARM TONGUE OF AIR EXPECTED ALOFT...PCPN WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT...MEASURING 0.05 OF AN INCH
OR LESS. HOWEVER...ANY ICE WILL BE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL.
HENCE...WILL ISSUE WINTER WX AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
TONIGHT STARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BY AFTN AS AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS PIVOT OFF TO
THE NE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APCH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING...SPREADING
WIDESPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE REGION. KEEPING THIS IN MIND...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS. ANY FREEZING RAIN BY AFTN WILL PROBABLY NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
TO KEEP HEADLINES SOMEWHAT SIMPLISTIC WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY AS ICING WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS (ANOTHER 0.05 OF AN INCH). ALSO...THIS WILL MATCH UP WITH THE
LONG TERM FORECASTER/S PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME DUE TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
VERY CHALLENGING LONG TERM WITH THE FOCUS CONTINUING TO LIE WITH
POTENTIAL MAJOR MIXED PRECIP EVENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A WELL DEVELOPED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A DEEP PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH PWAT SOME 2-3 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR JAN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...ONLY
THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS ATTEMPTING TO
UNDERCUT THE CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.
SIMILAR TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE STRONGER AND
FARTHER NW SOLUTION OF THE NAM OVER THE FLATTER AND SUPPRESSED GFS
SOLUTION. THE NAM HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM
AND THE UKMET FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ON SUNDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF MEAN WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH EJECTION WITH AREA OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
LIFT SUN NGT INTO MON AM. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...FEEL ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL BE UNDER-FORECASTING QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR.
SIGNIFICANT QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.
NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. AGAIN...FAVORED THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES IN
FAVOR OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK...WHICH WOULD IMPLY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FAVORABLE FOR FZRA AND IP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH TENDENCY TOWARDS
MORE SLEET FARTHER NORTH WITH A DEEPER NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER. THE
ONLY PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW SUN NGT BASED ON
CURRENT 12Z NAM RUN WOULD BE THE FAR NW CORNER FROM NEAR MCY TO BEH.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MENTION IN
GRIDS AND INCREASED FZRA/IP MENTION. LEFT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA AS MAINLY RAIN SUN NGT...POSSIBLY SOME FZRA LATE AS TEMPS COOL
TO NEAR FREEZING. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN NGT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR A
COMBINATION OF FZRA AND SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MIX AS WELL IN
THE FAR NW. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SAME TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING
AND ALSO POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT TRACK AND SURFACE TEMPS...BUT IF THE EXPECTED GREATER QPF
VERIFIES COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATION FOR A
PORTION OF THE CWA.
ON MONDAY SLOWER/WARMER NAM STILL FAVORS A MIXED BAG IN THE
MORNING...THEN AS LOW/MID LEVEL CAA RAMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON ANY
REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. FROM LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUE NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. 12Z NAM BUFKIT ANALYSIS
SHOWING MODERATE COLLIER INDEX AND FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF AMBIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE BENEATH AN
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 7K FEET. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF...AND WITH FOCUS ON SYNOPTIC
EVENT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. FOR NOW
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SE OF THE LAKE WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CHANCE POPS IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER
OF FORECAST FROM TUE NGT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS JUST ABOUT STALLED OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC AND SURROUNDING RADARS INDICATE THAT PCPN
HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACRS THE FCST AREA...AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY. THEN...SVRL WEAK WX
DISTURBANCES ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A RETURN TO ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
MOIST ADVECTION...WILL CAUSE PCPN TO FORM AFTER 06Z...WITH AREAL
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 12Z SUNDAY. COLDER AIR HAS FILTERED
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NRN INDIANA...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM 06Z THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BULGE OF WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FZRA AND SLEET. AT THIS POINT...KSBN HAS
THE BEST CHC FOR SOME SLEET WHILE KFWA SHOULD ONLY SEE FZRA. CIGS
ARE IN THE IFR CATEGORY THIS AFTN...AND THEY WILL DROP INTO THE LIFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE ONSET OF PCPN. VSBYS TOO WILL DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PCPN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-
INZ033-INZ034.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR INZ008-INZ009-INZ013-INZ015-
INZ016-INZ017-INZ018.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-
INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-INZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT
TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006- INZ007-INZ012-INZ014.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
AFDICT 948 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
.UPDATE...
A VERY LIGHT FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED
INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS INTO THE
WICHITA AREA...AND SUPPORTED BY AREA SOUNDINGS. SO SENT A
QUICK UPDATE OUT.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/
UPDATE...
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS WE
WILL BE IN A LULL UNTIL MAIN UPPER TROF EJECTS NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID INCREASE IN POPS
AGAIN BY 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD SHOWN IN GRIDS/FORECAST. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WEATHER PROBLEMS FROM ANY PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE WAY HAS BEEN PAVED TO STAY WITH THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO AVOID CONFUSION...WITH MODEST EXPECTATIONS TO
REALIZE CRITERIA ON SUNDAY IN LAST 12 HOURS OF VALID TIME.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/
SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS OVER VALIDITY OF LATEST MODEL RUNS. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS DEARTH OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
US...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST AZ/UT. ACARS DATA AROUND
1200 UTC IS EVEN LACKING. GIVEN MOST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DRIVEN
BY WEAKER RIPPLES OVER HIGHLY BAROCLINIC LOW LEVELS... CONFIDENCE
IS GOING TO BE LOW. ALSO OF NOTE...WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGEST DECENT
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ABOUT TO ROUND THE CLOUD BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
WELL OFF GULF OF CA. HOW WELL THIS WILL BE HANDLED IS ALSO
SUSPECT. ON THE PLUS SIDE...LATEST RUNS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH AT LEAST MEANS NO BIG CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING.
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-SUN:
PLAN TO KEEP HEADLINES GOING...ALTHOUGH MAKING CRITERIA MAY BE
MARGINAL. FORCING WILL BE ON THE WANE TONIGHT ONCE CURRENT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35 MOVES OUT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME COMBO OF LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT ICE PELLETS/LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 1200 UTC...AND SPREAD NE DURING THE
DAY. MAIN CONCERN IS AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO
MCPHERSON...WHERE MARGINALLY DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENCE
OF LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. 1200 UTC RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
COUPLED UPPER JET SO WILL ALSO BE DECENT UPPER SUPPORT. JUST NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LAPSE RATES AND LIFT TO REALLY JUMP ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF FAIR AMOUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLEET.
MINIMUM WILL LIKELY BE AROUND ICT AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH. IN
SOUTHEAST KS PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. AGAIN SLIGHTLY LONGER PERSISTENCE WILL ADD
ACCUMULATION. WITH THERMAL PROFILE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT A COMBO OF TYPE THERE AS WELL.
SUN NIGHT-MON:
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE ON THE WANE BY MIDNIGHT. CAVEAT
MAY BE IF LAGGING UPPER WAVE DOES SLOW OVERALL PROGRESSION DOWN...
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MON. GOING CONSENSUS WAS TO NIX
PRECIPITATION.
TUE-SAT:
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
GOOD DIURNAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. HOW LONG/HOW PRONOUNCED THESE IMPACTS
WILL BE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GIVEN HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
ONGOING PATTERN CHANGE AND ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...OPTED NOT TO INTRO PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST
YET ON DAY 7. AT FACE VALUE...BOTH 0600 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL/00 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL WOULD SUGGEST SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON PER GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL OR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON OR EVENING PER EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL. THE LATTER IS 12 HOUR EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUN.
DEPTH...TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN US
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A MAJOR SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE OFFING WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE ORIENTATION OF WINDS AND
THERMAL GRADIENT. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 13 16 10 19 / 40 100 30 10
HUTCHINSON 11 15 9 18 / 40 100 40 10
NEWTON 12 16 9 18 / 30 100 40 10
ELDORADO 12 17 10 19 / 40 100 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 15 19 11 20 / 50 100 20 0
RUSSELL 10 15 7 16 / 40 100 60 10
GREAT BEND 11 15 8 16 / 50 100 50 10
SALINA 11 15 8 17 / 30 100 60 10
MCPHERSON 11 15 9 17 / 30 100 50 10
COFFEYVILLE 18 23 14 22 / 60 100 30 10
CHANUTE 16 21 13 21 / 60 100 30 10
IOLA 15 20 13 20 / 60 100 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 17 22 14 22 / 60 100 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
AFDTOP 907 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR THE
MOST PART...PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
ARE SOME SMALL BANDS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR. IT IS HARD
TO TELL IF THE PRECIP FALLING IS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY
SNOW NEEDLES...ITS THAT LIGHT. THE LATEST RUC FORECAST WAS SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THIS MAY BE
THE REASON FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SINCE LARGE SCALE
FORCING HAS LEFT THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. AM CONSIDERING REPLACING
THE WATCH WITH AN ADVISORY OF SOME SORT. THE 00Z NAM IS COMING IN
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE DAY TIME RUNS. AS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHER ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. WILL WAIT TO REPLACE THE WATCH AND PEEK AT THE 00Z GFS TO
SEE IF IT SHOWS SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLIER RUNS. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF MHK WITH AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALONG THE TURNPIKE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB THROUGH 21Z. WILL KEEP THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION WISE...EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE LIGHT PRECIP SEEN
ON RADAR WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM FOR AIRCRAFT. THIS SHOULD BE SPOTTY
THOUGH AND CONFINED TO AREAS BELOW 4000FT. SFC VIS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 4SM IN THESE LIGHT BANDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 800FT.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS AROUND
1000FT AS VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BREAKS DOWN.
&&
WOLTERS
.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/...
CURRENTLY...SLEET SHOWERS EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BEHIND. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH TO
LIFT ADVISORY ALL AREAS...AND WILL LET IT GO WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
ANTICIPATING A LULL IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS TODAYS SYSTEM
DEPARTS EAST AND UPPER TROF STILL LUMBERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
BASE OF THE MAIN TROF PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN NM BY
MORNING...EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THAT TIME
AS WELL. GFS STRONGER WITH THESE FEATURES...AND WHILE SEVERAL WAVES
ARE SEEN OVER THE SW US IN THE WATER VAPOR...STILL DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN WHICH WILL MAKE IT HERE AND WHEN. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT
BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS NOW MAINLY IN THE 15Z-0Z
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SNOW HAVE COME DOWN...AND NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IN THE COLUMN. BUT WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS...POT VORT
AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURING OVER OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP SOME ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF SLEET IN PLACES...AND WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THIS TOMORROW. WITH
PWS AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SNOW RATIOS LIKELY OVER 10/1 IN THE COLD
AIR...AM NOT READY TO DROP THE WATCH JUST YET...AND WILL TREND GRIDS
TOWARDS ADVISORY NUMBERS.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY EJECTS OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY SHOULD BE FROM LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH SOUTH TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD...SO WILL KEEP GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 12 DEGREE RANGE.
THE STRATUS ON MONDAY WILL THEN LINGER IN THE MORNING BUT START TO
BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON. STILL...WITH EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER...THIS
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE TEENS.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW/ICE COVER. WILL GO WITH MOST
TEMPS NEAR ZERO FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON SNOW/ICE DEPTHS...COULD
SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE RULE
ON TUESDAY...MIXING WILL BE WEAK FOLLOWING VERY COLD MORNING
LOWS...SO THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD THEN KEEP LOWS ABOVE ZERO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST DRY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR EAST WITH CUTOFF LOW
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SATURDAY.
EITHER WAY...WITH THE SNOW/ICE COVER WILL SEE A "GRADUAL" MODERATION
IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOME LOWER 40S SOUTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 06Z MONDAY FOR COFFEY...FRANKLIN AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES.
WINTER STORM WATCH 12Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
AFDICT 811 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
.UPDATE...
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS WE
WILL BE IN A LULL UNTIL MAIN UPPER TROF EJECTS NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID INCREASE IN POPS
AGAIN BY 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD SHOWN IN GRIDS/FORECAST. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WEATHER PROBLEMS FROM ANY PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE WAY HAS BEEN PAVED TO STAY WITH THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO AVOID CONFUSION...WITH MODEST EXPECTATIONS TO
REALIZE CRITERIA ON SUNDAY IN LAST 12 HOURS OF VALID TIME.
OTHERWISE...ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/
SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS OVER VALIDITY OF LATEST MODEL RUNS. OF
PARTICULAR NOTE IS DEARTH OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
US...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST AZ/UT. ACARS DATA AROUND
1200 UTC IS EVEN LACKING. GIVEN MOST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DRIVEN
BY WEAKER RIPPLES OVER HIGHLY BAROCLINIC LOW LEVELS... CONFIDENCE
IS GOING TO BE LOW. ALSO OF NOTE...WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGEST DECENT
AMOUNT OF ENERGY ABOUT TO ROUND THE CLOUD BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
WELL OFF GULF OF CA. HOW WELL THIS WILL BE HANDLED IS ALSO
SUSPECT. ON THE PLUS SIDE...LATEST RUNS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH AT LEAST MEANS NO BIG CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING.
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-SUN:
PLAN TO KEEP HEADLINES GOING...ALTHOUGH MAKING CRITERIA MAY BE
MARGINAL. FORCING WILL BE ON THE WANE TONIGHT ONCE CURRENT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35 MOVES OUT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME COMBO OF LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT ICE PELLETS/LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 1200 UTC...AND SPREAD NE DURING THE
DAY. MAIN CONCERN IS AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO
MCPHERSON...WHERE MARGINALLY DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENCE
OF LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. 1200 UTC RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
COUPLED UPPER JET SO WILL ALSO BE DECENT UPPER SUPPORT. JUST NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LAPSE RATES AND LIFT TO REALLY JUMP ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF FAIR AMOUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLEET.
MINIMUM WILL LIKELY BE AROUND ICT AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH. IN
SOUTHEAST KS PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE MORNING AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. AGAIN SLIGHTLY LONGER PERSISTENCE WILL ADD
ACCUMULATION. WITH THERMAL PROFILE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT A COMBO OF TYPE THERE AS WELL.
SUN NIGHT-MON:
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE ON THE WANE BY MIDNIGHT. CAVEAT
MAY BE IF LAGGING UPPER WAVE DOES SLOW OVERALL PROGRESSION DOWN...
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MON. GOING CONSENSUS WAS TO NIX
PRECIPITATION.
TUE-SAT:
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD MAIN CONCERN WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
GOOD DIURNAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. HOW LONG/HOW PRONOUNCED THESE IMPACTS
WILL BE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GIVEN HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
ONGOING PATTERN CHANGE AND ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...OPTED NOT TO INTRO PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST
YET ON DAY 7. AT FACE VALUE...BOTH 0600 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL/00 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL WOULD SUGGEST SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON PER GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL OR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON OR EVENING PER EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL. THE LATTER IS 12 HOUR EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUN.
DEPTH...TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN US
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL. AT THIS POINT...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A MAJOR SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE OFFING WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE ORIENTATION OF WINDS AND
THERMAL GRADIENT. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 13 16 10 19 / 40 100 30 10
HUTCHINSON 11 15 9 18 / 40 100 40 10
NEWTON 12 16 9 18 / 30 100 40 10
ELDORADO 12 17 10 19 / 40 100 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 15 19 11 20 / 50 100 20 0
RUSSELL 10 15 7 16 / 40 100 60 10
GREAT BEND 11 15 8 16 / 50 100 50 10
SALINA 11 15 8 17 / 30 100 60 10
MCPHERSON 11 15 9 17 / 30 100 50 10
COFFEYVILLE 18 23 14 22 / 60 100 30 10
CHANUTE 16 21 13 21 / 60 100 30 10
IOLA 15 20 13 20 / 60 100 30 10
PARSONS-KPPF 17 22 14 22 / 60 100 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
AFDLMK 230 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2006
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
EARLY MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM SDF INDICATED THE ATMOSPHERE WAS
STILL FAIRLY DRY BELOW 700MB. SURFACE DEPRESSIONS AT 07Z WERE ALSO
AROUND 20 DEGREES. WE WILL NEED TO SATURATE THIS LAYER BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN BEGINS TO FALL.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
100KT JET WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY AND WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION GENERATION OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A VERY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 06Z. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FRONT
WERE 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITH VERY COLD AIR IN THE TEENS NOTED IN IOWA.
NOT MUCH TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS MORNING WITH LACK OF LIFT WE EXPECT
MAINLY AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE LIFT FROM THE FORE MENTIONED JET
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 1
INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 50S. --JA
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WILL LEAD TO
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND A THREAT OF FLOODING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A SHEARED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WHOSE CENTER WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE FROM NEVADA TO COLORADO THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY AND WILL EFFICIENTLY TRANSPORT
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR REPEATED EPISODES OF RAIN AS IT SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND THEN STALLS SUNDAY.
TIMING INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND CORRESPONDING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAIN WILL BE CHALLENGING AS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE BROAD...AND NO
OBVIOUS DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW UNTIL THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.
THE NAM MODEL HINTS AT WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER EARLY SATURDAY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. BOTH GFS AND NAM
FORECAST HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE
SATURDAY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OPENS UP AND MOVES TOWARDS IOWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BY NOW STATIONARY FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER IN QPF AMOUNTS THEN THE NAM AND WILL FORECAST
AN AMOUNT IN BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND PERIOD INTO
MONDAY...STILL FEEL THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY...WITH THE BULK OF THIS FALLING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH BEING ONCE AGAIN LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT...STALLING IT
OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS PUSHES THE
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE BY THIS SAME TIME.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA IN THE
MID 40S SUNDAY...WHILE 60 MAY BE APPROACHED ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE PROBABLY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND KEEP DRY BUT COLD
WEATHER OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY.
JSD
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSING THIS SCENARIO. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN ON THE OTHER OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR
AFDLWX LESS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHARPEN UP AS THE
ROCKIES POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EASES EAST. THIS WILL SET UP A
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION AS COPIOUS MOIST INFLUX FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL AID IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS AN ANNAFRONTAL
SYNOPTIC SETUP...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THOUGHT MOS HIGHS MAY HAVE BEEN A FEW
DEGREES TOO OPTIMISTIC. SIMILARLY...THEY MAY BE TOO COOL TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED EVEN HIGHER. PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE. EXPECT WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION CLIPPING THE WEST
VIRGINIA PAN HANDLE TO BE IT THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
PRECIPITATION LARGELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE OHIO VALLEY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE...
00Z ETA MOS AT THOMAS POINT SUGGESTS 16KT SUSTAINED TODAY...AND 10KT
TONIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z GFS MOS SHOWS 10KT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
00Z NAM PROXIMITY LAND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
WIND GUST MOMENTUM OF UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGINIA
STATE LINE AND ALONG THE POTOMAC TODAY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS ALSO
INDICATES 20KT WIND GUSTS NEAR THE VIRGINIA WATERS. WILL THEREFORE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE POTOMAC/BAY MARINE ZONES
CLOSEST TO THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE.
POSITIONING OF BNDRY ON SUN WILL CONTROL THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS PRES GRAD SHOULD REALLY GET GOING BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE OH VLY. THINK BEST CHC WILL
BE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES FOR SCA WINDS...THEN
ALL ZONES ON TUESDAY ONCE NW FLOW KICKS UP.
TIDES...
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS. THE
LUNAR CYCLE IS WANING (43% FULL). A LONG DURATION SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE
RISING WATER LEVELS WHICH NEED TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THEY BEGIN TO
NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA.
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER-PREDICTED WATER LEVELS THUS FAR...AND MAINTAINS CURRENT
DEPARTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NOAA EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE
MODEL DID NOT THE CAPTURE DEPARTURE RISES.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BNDRY WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND HELP TO FEED WAVES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MOS POPS
VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN NW AND SE ZONES BUT HAVE INDICATE LESS
EXTREME DELINEATIONS SINCE EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
PRECIP AREAS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. BOTH DAYS WILL
HAVE 50-70 POPS ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MIDDLE RANGE CHC POPS FOR SAT
NGT THOUGH AS THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WEAK LOW PRES
WAVE ACTION ALONG THE BNDRY. SUN NGT AND MON WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE FAIRLY GOOD CHCS FOR RAINFALL AS ADDITIONAL LOW PRES WAVES
FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO KICK THROUGH ON
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVNG WITH A REALLY DECENT PUSH OF ARCTIC FROM
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...COLD AIRMASS SETTLES
OVER OUR REGION ALTHOUGH THERE PROBABLY WON`T BE ANY DECENT PRECIP
MAKERS SAVE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE
COLD NW FLOW AND SOME U/L VORT ENERGY. BEST CHC OF COURSE LATE MON
NGT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHEN SOME DECENT UPSLOPE
SNOW SHWRS COULD TAKE PLACE. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUE-THU WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE UPDATE...SAR
PREV DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/JB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
AFDGRB 1245 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007
.UPDATED AT 1245 PM...JET STREAK PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...SO NOT SURE WHETHER WE WILL GET ICING ON ROADS
OR NOT. IF WE START GETTING ICING REPORTS WE MAY ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FLAT RIDGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WITH POS TILTED TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE...FRONT NOW OVER SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA...MOVEMENT SLOWER
THAN MODELS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVER STATE ATTM WITH SATELLITE INDICATING SOME CLEARING OVER FAR
WESTERN WI. NOT MAKING GREAT HEADWAY EAST AT THIS TIME. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST WI ASSOCIATED WITH JET PULLING
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME LIGHT RETURNS SEEN ON AREA RADARS THIS
AREA...THOUGH NOTHING SEEN AT SURFACE.
THIS PERIOD TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON CLOUD FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH THROUGH TODAY...SOME DRYING FROM THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL STAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH CLOUDS THROUGH SAT NORTH AND WEST AS HIGH WORKS
IN. SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA EXPECTED TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AS WAVES RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH
OF STATE. STRONG CAA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY.
OTHER CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL. HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE AND POPS A
BIT. LOW LEVEL WINDS NEVER IDEAL WITH TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THEN BACK WEST BY SAT AM.
AVIATION...UPDATED AT 1245 PM. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM CWA AND ATW SHOW
LOTS OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BUT DRY ABOVE. TEMPERATURES ALL ABOVE -
10C...SO NOT MUCH CHANCE OF SNOW JUST FZDZ. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT THU. MAIN FCST FOCUS CENTERS AROUND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS NE WI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NXT WEEK. WL
ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH TEMPS THEREAFTER AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION.
AS THE UPR TROF DIGS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS RGN SAT NGT...A LEAD SHRTWV
IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE BETTER FORCING WL REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH...CANNOT RULE OUT THAT THE NRN EDGE OF ANY PCPN WOULD
APPROACH SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. PREFER TO ADD A SLGT CHC OF LGT
SNOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ISW-SUE LINE. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLDS
EXPECTED OVR THE REST OF NE WI WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. THE INITIAL SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHIFT EAST BY SUNDAY.
AS THE UPR TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN HI PRES
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS...SFC WNDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE
N-NE DURING THE DAY. 8H TEMPS RESIDING AROUND -14C OVR NRN LK MI AND
-20C OVR WRN LK SUPERIOR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHWRS TO MOV INTO
EXTREME ERN WI/NRN WI. EXACT WND DIR WL BE KEY WHETHER ANY SNOW SHWRS
AFFECT KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTIES OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. PREFER TO GO DRY
ESLEWHERE AS THERE IS NO OTHER TRIGGER PRESENT.
UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOV INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY NGT WITH THE SFC
LOW TO TRACK FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT THIS WAY...THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST WITH OUR SNOW MORE OF A RESULT OF THE DEFORMATION ZN. HIGHEST
POPS TO REMAIN OVR THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH A SHARP CUT-OFF TO ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. APRS NOW THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO PSBL SUNDAY NGT. INITIAL UPR TROF PUSHES INTO
THE GREAT LKS RGN ON MON AS ANOTHER UPR TROF DIGS TOWARD THE DESERT SW.
LINGERING CHCS OF LGT SNOW EXPECTED OVR CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF ADDL LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ADDING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE LKSHR COUNTIES. WL CONT THE LIKELY WORDING FOR DOOR...KEWAUNEE...
AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES. WL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS AS LACK OF NEW SNOW MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
NORTHERLY WNDS TO PERSIST RIGHT INTO TUE AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS. TRAJS WOULD CONT TO FAVOR A CHC OF LK EFFECT
SNOW SHWRS OVR VILAS CNTY WHILE AREAS NEAR LK MI APR TO BE ON THE
FRINGES OF SNOW SHWRS MOVG SOUTH OVR LK MI. PREFER TO ADD FLURRIES RIGHT
ALONG THE SHORELINE AS TRAJS SEEM TOO MUCH DUR NORTH TO BRING SNOW
INLAND. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A DEG OR TWO BASED AGAIN ON THE LACK OF
FRESH SNOW. HI PRES TO BE SITUATED OVR THE RGN ON WED USHERING IN DRIER
AIR AND BACKING WNDS. ANY LK EFFECT SNOW WOULD END...THUS HAVE KEPT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING FOR NE WI WED. COLDEST OF THE AIRMASS TO START SHIFTING
EWD BY WED SO AN UPTICK IN TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN.
SPLIT FLOW TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK WITH MDLS HINTING AT A
NRN STREAM SYSTEM TO DROP SE INTO THE GREAT LKS NXT THU. TIMING ISSUES
COME INTO PLAY HERE SO HAVE LEFT THU DRY FOR NOW. IF SUCCESSIVE MDL RUNS
CONT TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVG IN...POPS WOULD NEED TO BE ADDED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
RDM/ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY