AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
AFDIWX 146 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE INCREASE TODAY...BUT JUST
ENOUGH FOR FWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE KEPT SBN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...SO HAVE INCLUDED FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN
THERE. NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE OUT OF THE IFR
CATEGORY AS THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIP THIS EVE. HAVE SEEN A
COUPLE WAVES OF DRIZZLE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND
THIS EVE AS WK TROFS MOVG THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT TO THE GENERAL OVER-RUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE. MORE SGFNT
PRECIP OVER WEST CENTRAL IL HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES NE THIS
EVE AND 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED
TODAY OVER OUR AREA. 00Z NAM SUGGESTS DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVG THROUGH MO MAY
NOT REACH US UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. HWVR, WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALREADY MOVG THROUGH THE AREA, THINK IT`S LIKELY
THAT MORE OF THIS LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SO WILL
HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH ATTM APPEARS THE MOST SGFNT PRECIP DURING THIS ADVISORY MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE 12Z NAM-WRF THAN THE 12Z GFS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE THERMAL PROFILES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE
GFS AS SEEN BY MOST CURRENT TAMDAR DATA.
AT 19Z...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL UNDULATE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NE ALONG IT.
MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED FROM ONTARIO WESTWARD
INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VLY. COLDER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FCST VIA SFC NE FLOW. THE FORECAST DILEMMA FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE AND
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT PCPN TYPE.
FOR TONIGHT...A TANDEM OF UPR LVL S/WVS WILL ROTATE NE INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VLY REGION FROM THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER
VLY. THESE S/WVS WILL PROVIDE UPR SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL LIFT. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM...MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIFT FROM THE S/WVS AND THE LIFT FROM MOIST...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE PCPN TO BREAK OUT FROM W TO EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACRS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA AND
WITH A WARM TONGUE OF AIR EXPECTED ALOFT...PCPN WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT...MEASURING 0.05 OF AN INCH
OR LESS. HOWEVER...ANY ICE WILL BE A HAZARD TO TRAVEL.
HENCE...WILL ISSUE WINTER WX AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
TONIGHT STARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BY AFTN AS AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS PIVOT OFF TO
THE NE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APCH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING...SPREADING
WIDESPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE REGION. KEEPING THIS IN MIND...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
MORNING LOWS. ANY FREEZING RAIN BY AFTN WILL PROBABLY NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.
TO KEEP HEADLINES SOMEWHAT SIMPLISTIC WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY AS ICING WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS (ANOTHER 0.05 OF AN INCH). ALSO...THIS WILL MATCH UP WITH THE
LONG TERM FORECASTER/S PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME DUE TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
VERY CHALLENGING LONG TERM WITH THE FOCUS CONTINUING TO LIE WITH
POTENTIAL MAJOR MIXED PRECIP EVENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A WELL DEVELOPED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
A DEEP PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN ADVANCE
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH PWAT SOME 2-3 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR JAN.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT...ONLY
THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS ATTEMPTING TO
UNDERCUT THE CONTINUED WARM/MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.
SIMILAR TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE STRONGER AND
FARTHER NW SOLUTION OF THE NAM OVER THE FLATTER AND SUPPRESSED GFS
SOLUTION. THE NAM HAS SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM
AND THE UKMET FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ON SUNDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF MEAN WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL SPAWN ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH
NAM/GFS SHOW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH EJECTION WITH AREA OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OVER THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
LIFT SUN NGT INTO MON AM. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS HIGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...FEEL ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL BE UNDER-FORECASTING QPF IN THE COLD SECTOR.
SIGNIFICANT QPF OF A HALF INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.
NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. AGAIN...FAVORED THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES IN
FAVOR OF A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK...WHICH WOULD IMPLY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS FAVORABLE FOR FZRA AND IP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH TENDENCY TOWARDS
MORE SLEET FARTHER NORTH WITH A DEEPER NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER. THE
ONLY PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW SUN NGT BASED ON
CURRENT 12Z NAM RUN WOULD BE THE FAR NW CORNER FROM NEAR MCY TO BEH.
FOLLOWING THIS TREND...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MENTION IN
GRIDS AND INCREASED FZRA/IP MENTION. LEFT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA AS MAINLY RAIN SUN NGT...POSSIBLY SOME FZRA LATE AS TEMPS COOL
TO NEAR FREEZING. HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN NGT
THROUGH MIDDAY MON FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA FOR A
COMBINATION OF FZRA AND SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW IN THE MIX AS WELL IN
THE FAR NW. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SAME TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING
AND ALSO POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT TRACK AND SURFACE TEMPS...BUT IF THE EXPECTED GREATER QPF
VERIFIES COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATION FOR A
PORTION OF THE CWA.
ON MONDAY SLOWER/WARMER NAM STILL FAVORS A MIXED BAG IN THE
MORNING...THEN AS LOW/MID LEVEL CAA RAMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON ANY
REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. FROM LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUE NW FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. 12Z NAM BUFKIT ANALYSIS
SHOWING MODERATE COLLIER INDEX AND FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF AMBIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE BENEATH AN
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 7K FEET. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
PATTERN RECOGNITION POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF...AND WITH FOCUS ON SYNOPTIC
EVENT STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. FOR NOW
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SE OF THE LAKE WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CHANCE POPS IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER
OF FORECAST FROM TUE NGT THROUGH SAT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-
INZ033-INZ034.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST FOR
INZ008-INZ009-INZ013-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-INZ018.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-
INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ017-INZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FOR
INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-INZ007-INZ012-INZ014.
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR
MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SKIPPER
UPDATE...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WWA SECTION
NWS TOPEKA KS
AFDTOP 1045 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED THE WATCH WITH ADVISORIES. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...WENT WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY RUFFLY FROM EMPORIA TO HIAWATHA. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...SO HAVE
ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS.
&&
WOLTERS
.PREV DISCUSSION /907 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR THE
MOST PART...PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
ARE SOME SMALL BANDS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR. IT IS HARD
TO TELL IF THE PRECIP FALLING IS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY
SNOW NEEDLES...ITS THAT LIGHT. THE LATEST RUC FORECAST WAS SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THIS MAY BE
THE REASON FOR THE LIGHT PRECIP. NEVERTHELESS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATING PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SINCE LARGE SCALE
FORCING HAS LEFT THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCH. AM CONSIDERING REPLACING
THE WATCH WITH AN ADVISORY OF SOME SORT. THE 00Z NAM IS COMING IN
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE DAY TIME RUNS. AS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHER ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. WILL WAIT TO REPLACE THE WATCH AND PEEK AT THE 00Z GFS TO
SEE IF IT SHOWS SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLIER RUNS. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF MHK WITH AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ALONG THE TURNPIKE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB THROUGH 21Z. WILL KEEP THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
DECENT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION WISE...EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE LIGHT PRECIP SEEN
ON RADAR WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM FOR AIRCRAFT. THIS SHOULD BE SPOTTY
THOUGH AND CONFINED TO AREAS BELOW 4000FT. SFC VIS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 4SM IN THESE LIGHT BANDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 800FT.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS AROUND
1000FT AS VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BREAKS DOWN.
&&
WOLTERS
.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007/...
CURRENTLY...SLEET SHOWERS EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BEHIND. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH TO
LIFT ADVISORY ALL AREAS...AND WILL LET IT GO WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
ANTICIPATING A LULL IN THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AS TODAYS SYSTEM
DEPARTS EAST AND UPPER TROF STILL LUMBERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
BASE OF THE MAIN TROF PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN NM BY
MORNING...EJECTING SHORTWAVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THAT TIME
AS WELL. GFS STRONGER WITH THESE FEATURES...AND WHILE SEVERAL WAVES
ARE SEEN OVER THE SW US IN THE WATER VAPOR...STILL DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN WHICH WILL MAKE IT HERE AND WHEN. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT
BEST WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS NOW MAINLY IN THE 15Z-0Z
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SNOW HAVE COME DOWN...AND NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IN THE COLUMN. BUT WITH SOME FRONTOGENESIS...POT VORT
AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL OCCURING OVER OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP SOME ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE WARNING IS IN EFFECT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF SLEET IN PLACES...AND WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THIS TOMORROW. WITH
PWS AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SNOW RATIOS LIKELY OVER 10/1 IN THE COLD
AIR...AM NOT READY TO DROP THE WATCH JUST YET...AND WILL TREND GRIDS
TOWARDS ADVISORY NUMBERS.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY EJECTS OUT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY SHOULD BE FROM LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH SOUTH TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD...SO WILL KEEP GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 12 DEGREE RANGE.
THE STRATUS ON MONDAY WILL THEN LINGER IN THE MORNING BUT START TO
BREAK UP BY AFTERNOON. STILL...WITH EXPECTED SNOW/ICE COVER...THIS
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE TEENS.
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW/ICE COVER. WILL GO WITH MOST
TEMPS NEAR ZERO FOR NOW...BUT DEPENDING ON SNOW/ICE DEPTHS...COULD
SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE RULE
ON TUESDAY...MIXING WILL BE WEAK FOLLOWING VERY COLD MORNING
LOWS...SO THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD THEN KEEP LOWS ABOVE ZERO
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST DRY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE GFS/ECMWF SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR EAST WITH CUTOFF LOW
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BY SATURDAY.
EITHER WAY...WITH THE SNOW/ICE COVER WILL SEE A "GRADUAL" MODERATION
IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SOME LOWER 40S SOUTHERN CWA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 06Z MONDAY FOR COFFEY...FRANKLIN AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 16Z SUNDAY UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR LYON...
MORRIS...WABAUNSEE...OSAGE...SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...JEFFERSON...JACKSON
AND BROWN COUNTIES.
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 16Z SUNDAY UNTIL 06Z MONDAY FOR ALL OTHER
COUNTIES.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
AFDLMK 910 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007
.UPDATE...
WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIP ARE MOVING THROUGH THE LMK CWA AS OF 2Z. BASED ON RECENT
ACARS SOUNDINGS AT SDF...AND MOST RECENT RUC MODEL...PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE LIQUID. ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVER
IL/IN...HEADING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. OVERNIGHT...PTYPE WILL BE
TRICKY. AS IS THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW...FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS/RUC SHOW ATMOSPHERE ABOVE -5C OR SO REMAINING FAIRLY DRY
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EVEN
AS THE NEAR SURFACE LEVELS COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE FCST TO ADD MENTION OF PATCHY -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE LMK CWA...ALSO
MENTIONING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-SHSN FOR ANY ISOLATED ELEMENTS
WHICH CAN SATURATE UP INTO THE -10C TO -20C LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
ROADWAY TEMPS RIGHT NOW ARE RELATIVELY WARM...UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO COOL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SRN IND AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF KY. EVEN JUST A LITTLE -FZDZ CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT.
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A PLUME OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM LAKE MICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SCT SHSN
INTO PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS AND NE KY. ONGOING FCST HAS THIS WELL IN
HAND...BUT HAVE UPPED POPS INTO 40% RANGE FOR OUR FAR NE MOST
COUNTIES BASED ON MOST RECENT DATA. SOME LOCALIZED MINOR ACCUMS
POSSIBLE THERE SHOULD THESE SHOWERS MATERIALIZE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS/CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
UPDATED FCST EXPECTED OUT BY 945 PM EST.
CS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EST MON JAN 15 2007/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)..
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINY WEATHER OF
LATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH. LARGE POST
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD
AND SHOULD EXIT THE LMK FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 400 AND 500 PM EST.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR STILL RESIDES WELL WEST OF THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S NOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. THE RUC SFC TEMP FCST HAS BEEN
DOING A BANG UP JOB WITH THIS AND WILL FOLLOW ITS FORECAST CLOSELY
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE RAIN COMING TO AN END...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 400 PM EST/300 PM CST.
FOR TONIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FCST PD. POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS
FCST TO BE WELL EAST OF THE FA BY 00Z TONIGHT. LATEST RUC AND WRF
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
EVENING THAT WOULD PROMOTE AREAS OF DRIZZLE INITIALLY THROUGH ABOUT
03Z. AFTER THAT...SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN COOLING WOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST. UPSTREAM RADARS
SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NW ILLINOIS
DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST. MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THIS AREA AND SHIFT
IT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CLOSELY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING AROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS LOOKS TO COOL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
TUESDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WITH BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH THE LAKES FAIRLY WARM
DUE TO RECENT MILD WEATHER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IS FORECAST TO
CRANK UP. BOTH WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW BEST LAPSE RATES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF OUR FA (BLUEGRASS REGION). THUS WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THAT AREA. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IS FCST TO CONTINUE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE VERY LOW 30S
LOOK LIKELY. GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS CLOSER TO RAW 2M SFC TEMPS
FROM OUR LOCAL HI-REZ WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
-MJ
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
WE WILL FINALLY SEE A GENERAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE ON LATE ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO
MUCH COLDER BUT MORE NORMAL TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WE WILL PRIMARILY BE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AT 500 MB
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE...INITIALLY FLATTENED BY A SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY
THEN REBUILDS INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE
OF SEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAKER SYSTEMS
DRIFTING BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE AND KEEP
THE COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME MIXED WINTERY PRECIPITATION LATER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL SETUP OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE THIS WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND THIS
SYSTEM OPEN AND TREK ENE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THAT DOES CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. --21
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
AFDMQT 430 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007
.SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC/LAPS ANALYSIS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT
COLDER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVR PLAINS INTO UPR LAKES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF UPR MI ATTM. WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
IN WAKE OF TROUGH. DESPITE LOW INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT PER MIDDAY
TAMDAR DATA AT CYQT AND KSAW...LK EFFECT HAS BEEN PROFICIENT WITH
SOME ACCUMS REPORTED BY SPOTTER IN MOHAWK IN HOUGHTON COUNTY. LATEST
RADAR AND VIS SAT EVEN SHOW ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BAND BTWN MQT AND
STDM4 OVR SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. TO THE SW OF UPR LAKES LARGE AREA OF
MOSTLY SNOW IS LIFTING NE ACROSS NEB AND WESTERN IA. THIS SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW IN CNTRL KS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS
SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO UPR MI LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS
AND HEADLINES ARE MAIN CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM.
NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WITH TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION AROUND -17C
WILL KEEP LK EFFECT GOING THROUGH EVENING. NOTED CONVERGENCE BAND
MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL BRIEFLY THIS EVENING OVR NCNTRL. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SNOW ARRIVES FM
THE SOUTH. HOW FAR NORTH WILL SHIELD OF DEEPER MOISTURE/UPR LEVEL
FORCING AND SYNOPTIC SNOW SURGE WAS MAIN QUESTION OF THE SHIFT.
UNLIKE YDY FOR THE MOST PART GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE
ALL ON SAME PAGE. BLEND OF QPF OUTPUT GIVES MOST AREAS A SOLID 0.20
TO 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID 00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE. USING BUFKIT COBB
SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND UWM ROEBBER SNOW RATIO FORECAST PAGE GIVES
HIGHER RATIO THAN TYPICAL SYNOPTIC EVENT...MORE IN LINE WITH 15-20
TO 1. IN GENERAL...THIS GIVES TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVR
SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH JUSTIFIES AN ADVY THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. COORD
THIS WITH DLH AND GRB.
BASED ON AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND WAY LK EFFECT HAS TURNED OUT LAST
FEW DAYS...EXPECT EVEN HIGHER RATIOS OVR PRONE LK EFFECT AREAS.
LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH H85 ON AVERAGE FM 360 DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH
NAM/CANADIAN GEM ARE A BIT MORE TOWARD 030. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
FAIRLY LOW...5-7KFT...BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT...AND TEMPS AT
TOP OF INVERSION TOWARD -18C...SIGNIFICANT LAKE CONTRIBUTION IS
EXPECTED. UPGRADED TO LK EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR FAR WEST AND NCNTRL
UPR MI. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FM THE
EVENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR OTHER ZONES NEAR LK
SUPERIOR...SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION TIPS SCALES
TOWARD ADVY FOR ALL BUT LUCE COUNTY AS NORTHEAST WINDS DO NOT
PRODUCE PROVIDE SUITABLE FETCH FOR LK INDUCED CONVECTION. ONE NOTE
ABOUT THE KEWEENAW. AIRMASS LURKING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS
QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS EVEN FM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SHARP CUTOFF TO DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS MAY IMPACT INTENSITY
OF INDIVIDUAL SNOW BANDS. STILL...SINCE LAKE IS SHOWING NO ICE ON IT
AND WATER TEMPS ARE RUNNING +3C TO +4C AND THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT...BELIEVE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN KEWEENAW AND TOWARD
ONTONAGON COUNTY COULD EEK INTO ADVY CRITERIA. ALL LK SUPERIOR
HEADLINES EXPIRE LATE MON EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
MON NIGHT...AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WITH THE QVECTOR CONV WITH
THE MID LVL TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THE SNOW OVER SOUTH
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE
LES INTENSITY NORTH WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...THE NAM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL CONV INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI (VCNTY MARQEUTTE) AND OVER THE WEST(NEAR KIWD) THROUGH 06Z.
TEMPS OF -18C NEAR THE TOP OF THE 4K FT INVERSION SHOULD STILL FAVOR
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LES. AS THE WINDS BACK TO NW OVERNIGHT
THE LES FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS FROM KP53 EASTWARD. THE SHORTER
FETCH INTO W UPR MI AND EVEN LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW
LES TO TAPER OFF TO JUST LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS AFT 06Z.
TUE...ALTHOUGH THE SFC RDG WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...LAKE INDUCED
TROUGHING WILL KEEP NW OR NW WINDS GOING WITH BEST LOW LVL CONV EAST
OF MARQEUTTE. BY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION BACKING WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL DRYING...WAA AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD BRING AN
END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT LES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR E CWA
WHERE LONGER FETCH AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING 850 MB
THERMAL TROF WILL KEEP LIGHT LES GOING.
WED INTO THU...GLBL MDLS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PATTERN WITH STRONG WAA
DEVELOPING AS THE SFC RDG SINKS SE AND A PLAINS SHRTWV AND SFC TROF
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO READINGS
AOA NORMAL WED. MODERATE QVECTOR CONV WITH THE PROMINENT 500 MB TROF
WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH LES CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATE THU AS CAA TAKES OVER BEHIND THE SFC FRONT/TROF
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -15C.
FRI THROUGH SUN...GOOD LES CHANCES CONTINUE IN GENERAL FOR NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS. NW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BRING A FEW CLIPPER
SHRTWVS THROUGH THE AREA BUT LESS CERTAINTY WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES AND IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ001>004-006-084-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ005-009.
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ013.
SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
MIZ010>012.
&&
$$
JLA(SHORT TERM)
JLB(LONG TERM)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 835 AM PST SUN JAN 14 2007
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COLD AIR HAS A GRIP OVER THE STATE AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE OFF THE SOUND AND UNFROZEN LAKES ARE RESULTING IN
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAKING SOME ROADS SLICK AND LOCALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR SO. THE FOG IS SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF
MIDDAY. REALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE PRES GRADIENTS COMBINED WITH A
ISOTHERMAL LAPSE RATE AT SEATTLE FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FT PER
ACARS SOUNDINGS...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND LOW MID JAN SUN
ANGLES ALL POINT TO TEMPERATURES TODAY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING. CI MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AT 132W WILL OCCASIONALLY SPILL
INTO THE AREA FILTERING THE AFTN SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD AGAIN...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2 DEG HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE ON MON BY A COUPLE DEGREES
THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE FILTERED BY A THICKENING LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS. AIR MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMIZED BY LIGHT
GRADIENTS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS TONIGHT AND MON.
STAGNATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THRU MON NIGHT WITH THE VERY
STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENTS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY THRU MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING.
THE NEXT PROBLEM IN THE FORECAST WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A SPLITTING FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TUE MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE LAYER FROM 1000 FT TO 3000 FT...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY
AND PRES GRADIENTS WITH THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE.
MODEL QPF WITH THE INCOMING FRONT IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.15-0.40
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA TUE...AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS ARE AROUND 1295
M. A QUICK LOOK AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING FORECASTS AS WELL AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OFF THE INCOMING GFS ALL POINT TO MOST AREAS IN THE
INTERIOR SEEING SNOW TUE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
2-4 INCH RANGE. PCPN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SEATTLE SOUTHWARD...BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
QUITE LOW...AND ANY POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LATE IN THE DAY INTO
EARLY WED MORNING COULD STILL CAUSE FROZEN PCPN ON HILLS N/E OF
SEATTLE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
GOES OUT. ALBRECHT.
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR MORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 00Z RUNS A LITTLE FASTER AND GIVEN THE
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE GIVEN THE RIDGES A LITTLE TOO MUCH STRENGTH IN
THE LAST FEW RUNS WILL GO AHEAD AND MOVE UP THE CHANCE POPS TIMING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE EXTENDED
AT THIS POINT. FELTON
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT
AREAS OF 1/4-1/2SM FZFG CIGS BKN001-003 TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY 20Z.
CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW.
KSEA...FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE AIRPORT COMPLEX.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY INTERIOR
LOWLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE.