AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
AFDPHI 550 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007
RADAR IS SHOWING, AND OBSERVATION HERE AT MT HOLLY IS CONFIRMING,
THAT SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BROKEN OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO MOST OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. NO OTHER
CHANGES. PREV AFD IS BELOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
MPD
********************************************************************
.OVERVIEW...
WINTER IS HERE AND WILL HANG AROUND FOR AWHILE.
.SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLENTY OF DANK AND DREARY LOOKING CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION WHICH
WILL STAY AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND
BUT WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S, DOESN`T TAKE MUCH TO COOL YOU
DOWN EVEN MORE. SO WHEN IS THE NEXT TIME FOR PRECIPITATION? THE
NORTHERN BRANCH WILL PREVAIL OVER A GOOD PART OF THE WORKWEEK. SOME
OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A
-18C AT 80H. JUST UP THE ROAD A SHORT DISTANCE A -26C IS OVER NEW
YORK STATE. THE LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO US ON SUNDAY IS OFF THE
COAST AND PULLING DOWN SOME COLD AIR, BUT ITS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
OVER JAMES BAY THAT IS GOING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND BRING THE
REINFORCED COLD. ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW OR A PASSING SNOW SHOWER AND THAT COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME
WITH NO ORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO SET ANYTHING OFF EXCEPT OFF THE GREAT
LAKES. SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, CLOSED LOW OVER
OLD MEXICO WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHERN IN THE TAIL END OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.
.LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE CONTINUE IN THE SAME PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND IT IS
EVEN COLDER THAN THE SHORT TERM. A NICE PIPE LINE OF REINFORCED COLD
AIR SETS UP FROM EDMONTON DOWN THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH COLD, THIS PATTERN WILL NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MAJOR STORM. THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR. ABOUT THE THE ONLY THING WE CAN HOPE FOR IN
THE WAY OF SNOW IS A CLIPPER OR TWO TO DROP ABOUT 4 TO 5 INCHES IN A
FELLED SWOOP OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR EXTENDED PERIOD FOR 27 JAN
THROUGH FEB 4 IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS PATTERN DOES DO IN THE LONG TERM IS SET THE
STAGE, WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND THEN TRACK UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS WITH
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. BUT THAT IS NOT IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE OF THE MODELS. JUST ENJOY THE SEASONABLE COLD,
STAY WARM AND FOR THOSE HOPING FOR SNOW, IT WILL HAPPEN.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE IFR TO MVFR
RANGE, HOWEVER SOME IMPROVEMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN. SOME PILOT REPORTS
THOUGH INDICATE MODERATE TO SEVERE ICING IN THE KABE VICINITY AT
6,000-8,000 FEET. EARLIER ACARS DATA AT PHILADELPHIA SHOWED A FAIRLY
SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION AND THE 12Z LWX RAOB INDICATED THE
MOISTURE WAS MOSTLY BELOW 5,000 FEET. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER, SOME BREAKS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE EXTENT OF ANY LOW-LEVEL DRYING TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOT MUCH MIXING WITHIN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. IT APPEARS THE EXTENT OF THE MOIST LAYER HAS DECREASED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL AREAS SEEING CEILINGS COME UP. ORGINALLY
THOUGHT MOISTURE WOULD HANG TOUGH, WHICH IT HAS BUT CEILINGS ARE NOW
RESPONDING IN THE UPSWING DIRECTION AT MANY LOCATIONS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT, THEREFORE DID NOT WANT TO
BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. GENERALLY HELD ONTO IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS A SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CRUISE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT, KEEPING CLOUDS IN PLACE. AREAS THAT SEE CEILINGS
LIFTING SOME THIS AFTERNOON, MAY TEND TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT RESPOND MUCH. WE
IMPROVED THINGS THOUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS BETTER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
IN THE KABE AND KRDG VICINITY, WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLY DOWN TO A
KTTN-KILG LINE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER DID NOT
CARRY ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS 2
FEET OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ABOUT A FOOT ON DELAWARE
BAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS SO FAR. LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST THEN NORTHEAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP SOME OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WE WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS AND HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH
SHOULD DIMINISH THE WINDS A BIT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY, THEN SWEEP ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. STRONG CAA COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREA. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE 30-KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR DROPS
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, PLENTY OF WIND ALOFT COUPLED WITH
COLD AIR POURING OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD WATER COULD PRODUCE GALE
FORCE GUSTS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WAVEWATCH INDICATING 7
FOOT SEAS AT BUOY 44009. WITH THE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE, WE
WILL TOP THE SEAS AT ABOUT 5-6 FEET.
&&
$$
OVERVIEW/SHORT/LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION/MARINE...GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
AFDLOT 1145 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007
.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST
RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELD AND 700 TO 500 MB LAYER Q VECTOR
FIELD SHOW THE MAXIMUM LIFT AROUND 15 UTC. THIS IS FROM THE LOCALLY
RUN WRF ARW MODEL. THE 00 UTC SOUNDINGS AT ILX AND DVN WERE DRY FROM
955 TO 584 MB. BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE INCREASE MOISTURE IN THAT LAYER
BY 09 UTC THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS SHOW THE MAXIMUM DEPTH OF SATURATION FROM 5 AM TO 7 AM THIS
MORNING. THEN THE DRIER AIR ABOVE 500 MB MOVES IN AFTER 11 AM. SNOW
PRODUCTION IS STILL SEEN THROUGH 6 PM CST. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
FOR SNOW UNTIL 6 PM CST. A CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON THE 700 MB
PROFILER DATA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO AT 07
UTC. THIS CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
00 UTC MONDAY. THE ACARS WIND SPEED SHOWS THE JET OVER ILLINOIS TO
NORTHERN OHIO AT 945 UTC. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS ON
PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WISCONSIN MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THAT
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
1145 AM CST
FOR 18Z TAFS...DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION BAND MAINLY ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MI ATTM...EXITING FAR NORTHERN IL. ANOTHER PATCH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL
ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX. VORT MAX BEST SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOP AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY NE OVER NW IL. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS OVER NE IL/NW IN LATE THIS MORNING IS A
MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SUPPORTED BY 12Z
SOUNDING FROM DVN WHICH WAS MOIST UP TO ABOUT 12K FT BUT TEMPERATURE
OF THE MOIST COLUMN WAS AROUND -8C WHICH IS ON THE THRESHOLD OF ICE
CRYSTALS VERSUS SUPERCOOLED WATER. WILL KEEP INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING FOR A FEW HOURS AND END ALL PRECIP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN BUT DONT EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENT UNTIL SURFACE WAVE
PASSES AND WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
ALLSOPP
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
AFDLOT 545 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007
.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST
RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELD AND 700 TO 500 MB LAYER Q VECTOR
FIELD SHOW THE MAXIMUM LIFT AROUND 15 UTC. THIS IS FROM THE LOCALLY
RUN WRF ARW MODEL. THE 00 UTC SOUNDINGS AT ILX AND DVN WERE DRY FROM
955 TO 584 MB. BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE INCREASE MOISTURE IN THAT LAYER
BY 09 UTC THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS SHOW THE MAXIMUM DEPTH OF SATURATION FROM 5 AM TO 7 AM THIS
MORNING. THEN THE DRIER AIR ABOVE 500 MB MOVES IN AFTER 11 AM. SNOW
PRODUCTION IS STILL SEEN THROUGH 6 PM CST. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
FOR SNOW UNTIL 6 PM CST. A CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON THE 700 MB
PROFILER DATA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO AT 07
UTC. THIS CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
00 UTC MONDAY. THE ACARS WIND SPEED SHOWS THE JET OVER ILLINOIS TO
NORTHERN OHIO AT 945 UTC. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS ON
PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WISCONSIN MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THAT
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
545 AM CST
12Z TAFS...DRY SLOT SLICING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN IL
CAUSING A SPLIT IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN THRUST OF
THE DEEP MOIST LIFT PUSHING OFF ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE
LOWER LAKES. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEB WITH DEFORMATION
ZONE SNOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CIRCULATION IS MOVING FM IA AND
SOUTHERN MN INTO SRN WI.
BRIEF SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW QUICKLY COMMING TO AN END BEFORE
DAYBREAK. UVV CONTINUES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN KS MOVS INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGH
END IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SN. AS VORT MAX
MOVS ACROSS NORTHERN IL LATER AFTERNOON MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE
VIGEROUS SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS...ENDING AROUND 00Z. E TO SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES INTO NORTHERN IND EARLY THIS
EVE...THEN WILL BACK AROUND THRU NE TO NW. WITH WEAK FLOW THRU THE
NIGHT EXPECT MVFR STRATOCU CIGS TO HOLD ACROSS REGION TIL AFT
12Z.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...SNOW ADVZY 3AM TO 6PM SUNDAY.
.IN...SNOW ADVZY 3AM TO 6PM SUNDAY.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
AFDLOT 345 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THE 700 MB OMEGA FIELD AND 700 TO 500 MB LAYER Q VECTOR
FIELD SHOW THE MAXIMUM LIFT AROUND 15 UTC. THIS IS FROM THE LOCALLY
RUN WRF ARW MODEL. THE 00 UTC SOUNDINGS AT ILX AND DVN WERE DRY FROM
955 TO 584 MB. BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE INCREASE MOISTURE IN THAT LAYER
BY 09 UTC THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS SHOW THE MAXIMUM DEPTH OF SATURATION FROM 5 AM TO 7 AM THIS
MORNING. THEN THE DRIER AIR ABOVE 500 MB MOVES IN AFTER 11 AM. SNOW
PRODUCTION IS STILL SEEN THROUGH 6 PM CST. WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
FOR SNOW UNTIL 6 PM CST. A CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON THE 700 MB
PROFILER DATA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO AT 07
UTC. THIS CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
00 UTC MONDAY. THE ACARS WIND SPEED SHOWS THE JET OVER ILLINOIS TO
NORTHERN OHIO AT 945 UTC. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS ON
PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WISCONSIN MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THAT
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...STILL HOLDING ONTO TIMETABLE FOR UPCOMING SNOW EVENT.
THIS SHORTWAVE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEFORE DAWN. CI OVERHEAD
NOW...LOWERING TO AC AFT MIDNGT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRE-DAWN ENTRY
INTO NRN IL FOR SNOWFALL. SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TOWARD MID MRNG WITH BEST VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY TO IFR TO REFLECT
THIS HEAVY PERIOD. CUD BE PDS OF LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AROUND THE NOON
HOUR BUT HAVE NOT REFLECTED THIS IN TERMINAL FCSTS FOR ITS SHUTDOWN
CAPABILITY. SNOW LESSENING AFT 2PM AND SHUD SEE VSBY LIFTING TO MVFR
AFT THEN...ALTHO CIGS STILL IFR THRU 06Z IN CAA WRAPAROUND. WINDS
GENERALLY SE TONGHT BACKING TO EAST IN THE LT MRNG AND SHUD BACK TO
NORTHEAST TO NORTH AFT DARK SUNDAY EVENING.
RLB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...SNOW ADVZY 3AM TO 6PM SUNDAY.
.IN...SNOW ADVZY 3AM TO 6PM SUNDAY.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
AFDLMK 930 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007
.EVENING UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO TAKE OUT EVENING WORDING. LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF CWA TO REFLECT LATEST OBS.
EARLIER...SOME LIGHT SLEET WAS REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
STRAY FLURRIES OR AN ICE PELLET...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE WEST ALL THE WAY THROUGH
ILLINOIS. ANY CLEARING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT
THE EARLIEST.
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 5SM THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AND VARY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 THOUSAND FEET OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
LOWER CLOSER TO ONE THOUSAND FEET AT LEX...DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
HIGHER ELEVATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT..WITH 15-20 MPH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FEET.
DUE TO STRONG INVERSION AT 5000 FEET...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE...BUT MAY BECOME SCATTERED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JSD
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION HAS LED TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS TODAY...IN THE MID-UPPER 30S MOST PLACES AS OF 19Z. SCT PRECIP
ON RADAR...AND BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS COUPLED WITH ACARS DATA...
PTYPE IS A MIX OF -RA/-SN/-PL...BUT INTENSITIES ARE VERY LIGHT.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN HOURS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH LIFT FROM PASSING UPPER TROF WILL
HELP CONTINUE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING...WILL WORD AS
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...HOWEVER AIRMASS ABOVE 800MB (ICE
CRYSTAL LEVELS) IS FCST TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...SO PRECIP AMTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WE MAY END UP SEEING MORE OF A PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FLURRY TYPE DEAL. WILL MENTION ISLTD SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 6Z AS UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF
TO THE EAST...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY PER NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS. BOTH SHOW CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE W/SW...WHICH IS OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
OVER AR/OK ATTM. HOWEVER THAT MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO VERY STRONG
INVERSION SEEN AROUND 850MB. OVERALL WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING IN THE AFTN TUESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...USED A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH YIELDED
MIDDLE 20S MOST LOCATIONS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.
CS
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAINLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
NW. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTEND FROM
HUDSON BAY SW TO SRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE SFC
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES MAY STAY TO OUR NE FOR THE MOST
PART...AND ONLY BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA WED MORNING.
HOWEVER TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS OUR NE FROM THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM 06-12Z...EXTENDING INTO THE -5 TO
-15 DEGREE C RANGE. THINK THAT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WOULD
OCCUR (IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES) SO MAY INSERT THIS INTO THE GRIDS.
THINK A BETTER CHANCE RESIDES WITH THE UPPER PLAINS` SHORTWAVE
DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT. THIS MAY HELP SPARK A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NERN
CWA. THINK SLT CHC SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DO THE TRICK. ANY PRECIP
WOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE.
THU-FRI...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. STILL A NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS OUR NE THU MORN. WOULD BE A MINIMAL SHOT
SO WILL NOT INSERT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL DOWNPLAYING THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR.
STILL...THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 30S FOR
THU UNDER THE NW FLOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE). TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRI...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SAT-MON...
THIS PERIOD POSES THE MOST UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...UPPER FLOW ALOFT IS STILL A WNW
FLOW...WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS FINALLY EJECTING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. MODERATING TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SWRLY SFC WINDS AND
SLT RIDGING OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT MORN...WITH SWWD EXTENDING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LOW
EJECTING INTO PLAINS TRAVELS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A COMBINATION OF
THESE POSES A SLT PRECIP THREAT FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS POINT SINCE OUR CWA RESIDES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TWO NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WILL JUST CARRY SLT CHC POPS...AND
WOULD LIKELY START OFF AS LIQUID. SAT NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH
TO -SHSN AS TEMPS AT 850MB DROP TO AROUND -12 DEGREES C. UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND NRN STREAM FRONT TRIES TO BRING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION...HOWEVER TREND IS TO LIGHTEN THE PUNCH...WITH THE NE CONUS
REALLY EXPERIENCING THE WORST OF THE ARCTIC AIR. COULD HAVE A CHC OF
FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN VERY DRY ATMS
WILL NOT INSERT INTO THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OUR
NE...ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW TEMPS 1 STD DEV BELOW NORM SUN-MON...SO
WILL TREND TOWARD ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THESE DAYS.
AL
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 5SM THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AND VARY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 THOUSAND FEET OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
LOWER CLOSER TO ONE THOUSAND FEET AT LEX...DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
HIGHER ELEVATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT..WITH 15-20 MPH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FEET.
DUE TO STRONG INVERSION AT 5000 FEET...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE...BUT MAY BECOME SCATTERED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JSD
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
AFDLMK 610 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007
.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 5SM THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
AND VARY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 THOUSAND FEET OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS
LOWER CLOSER TO ONE THOUSAND FEET AT LEX...DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
HIGHER ELEVATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVERNIGHT..WITH 15-20 MPH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FEET.
DUE TO STRONG INVERSION AT 5000 FEET...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE...BUT MAY BECOME SCATTERED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JSD
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION HAS LED TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS TODAY...IN THE MID-UPPER 30S MOST PLACES AS OF 19Z. SCT PRECIP
ON RADAR...AND BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS COUPLED WITH ACARS DATA...
PTYPE IS A MIX OF -RA/-SN/-PL...BUT INTENSITIES ARE VERY LIGHT.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN HOURS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH LIFT FROM PASSING UPPER TROF WILL
HELP CONTINUE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING...WILL WORD AS
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...HOWEVER AIRMASS ABOVE 800MB (ICE
CRYSTAL LEVELS) IS FCST TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...SO PRECIP AMTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WE MAY END UP SEEING MORE OF A PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FLURRY TYPE DEAL. WILL MENTION ISLTD SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 6Z AS UPPER WAVE PASSES OFF
TO THE EAST...BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY PER NAM/GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS. BOTH SHOW CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE W/SW...WHICH IS OBSERVED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
OVER AR/OK ATTM. HOWEVER THAT MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO VERY STRONG
INVERSION SEEN AROUND 850MB. OVERALL WILL TREND TOWARD PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING IN THE AFTN TUESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...USED A 50/50 BLEND OF NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH YIELDED
MIDDLE 20S MOST LOCATIONS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.
CS
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAINLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
NW. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTEND FROM
HUDSON BAY SW TO SRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE SFC
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES MAY STAY TO OUR NE FOR THE MOST
PART...AND ONLY BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA WED MORNING.
HOWEVER TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS OUR NE FROM THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM 06-12Z...EXTENDING INTO THE -5 TO
-15 DEGREE C RANGE. THINK THAT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WOULD
OCCUR (IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES) SO MAY INSERT THIS INTO THE GRIDS.
THINK A BETTER CHANCE RESIDES WITH THE UPPER PLAINS` SHORTWAVE
DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CWA WED NIGHT. THIS MAY HELP SPARK A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NERN
CWA. THINK SLT CHC SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DO THE TRICK. ANY PRECIP
WOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE.
THU-FRI...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. STILL A NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS OUR NE THU MORN. WOULD BE A MINIMAL SHOT
SO WILL NOT INSERT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL DOWNPLAYING THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR.
STILL...THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 30S FOR
THU UNDER THE NW FLOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE). TEMPS SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRI...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SAT-MON...
THIS PERIOD POSES THE MOST UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...UPPER FLOW ALOFT IS STILL A WNW
FLOW...WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS FINALLY EJECTING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. MODERATING TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SWRLY SFC WINDS AND
SLT RIDGING OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT MORN...WITH SWWD EXTENDING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LOW
EJECTING INTO PLAINS TRAVELS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A COMBINATION OF
THESE POSES A SLT PRECIP THREAT FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS POINT SINCE OUR CWA RESIDES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TWO NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WILL JUST CARRY SLT CHC POPS...AND
WOULD LIKELY START OFF AS LIQUID. SAT NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH
TO -SHSN AS TEMPS AT 850MB DROP TO AROUND -12 DEGREES C. UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND NRN STREAM FRONT TRIES TO BRING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION...HOWEVER TREND IS TO LIGHTEN THE PUNCH...WITH THE NE CONUS
REALLY EXPERIENCING THE WORST OF THE ARCTIC AIR. COULD HAVE A CHC OF
FLURRIES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN VERY DRY ATMS
WILL NOT INSERT INTO THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OUR
NE...ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW TEMPS 1 STD DEV BELOW NORM SUN-MON...SO
WILL TREND TOWARD ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THESE DAYS.
AL
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORECAST PROBLEM FOR
AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HRS.
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS...
EXPECT SCT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/-SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS. THESE WILL LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO AROUND 700FT/1SM
RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 0Z...WITH VSBYS IN THE VFR RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN 6SM -DZ
BR AS PREVAILING AT SDF/LEX/BWG.
INTO THIS EVENING LOWER LEVELS COOL SUCH THAT A FEW FLURRIES OR
-SHSN MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THAT CIGS MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS THEN
INDICATE THAT CIGS MAY BECOME QUITE LOW (LIFR) AFTER 6Z
(ESPECIALLY AT LEX) WHILE MOS GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC. WILL
GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE TIME BEING.
WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WESTERLY AND LIGHT...AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
CS
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
AFDABQ 202 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007
.DISCUSSION...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL CO WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED SW THROUGH NW NM INTO SOUTHERN AZ. 1022MB HIGH
PRES AREA IS NOSING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EAST OF DENVER
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NE NM. WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH THRU AZ WITH A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL CO EXTENDING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LATEST
400-200MB AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES A 110-130 KNOT JET OVER EASTERN NV
DIVING SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
SN BREAKING OUT OVER EASTERN AZ AS WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SE
CO.
12Z MREF H5 HEIGHT PATTERN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 15Z SREF THAT 3-4
SIGMA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THRU MON AFT TO A
POSITION OVER FAR NE SONORA...WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NM. SIDED WITH 12Z GFS ON MODEL
DETAILS WITH HPC COLLABORATION AND WWD SNOW AMOUNT GRAPHICS. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NM AS
THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT OVER SE CO WILL ALSO
ADVANCE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AFTER DARK. THIS WILL ALLOW A DECENT CANYON WIND TO AFFECT USUAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS ABQ AND SET UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MTNS AND GILA REGION...MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL
YIELD AVERAGE OF 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HENCE WILL UPGRADE
ZONE 8 AND 14 TO WARNING AND BUFFER WITH A SNOW ADV FOR ZONES
15-16-17-26. ABQ SITS IN A UNIQUE LOCATION AS EAST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BLOW SNOW BEYOND WEST MESA HOWEVER WEAK OVERTOPPING MAY
DEPOSIT SOME SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS. LEFT SANDIA...MANZANOS...AND
ABQ OUT OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE SNOWFALL
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN CIBOLA AND WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTIES.
MODEL SOLNS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND TUESDAY WITH POSITION OF
UPPER LOW. GFS TAKES STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH INTO CHIHUAHUA WHILE
NAM SPINS UPPER LOW ALONG NM/MEXICO BORDER. BOTH MODELS LIFT SYSTEM
NORTHWARD THRU NM LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER
STORM. TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
EXTENDED AND KEPT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 17 36 10 39 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 15 30 -2 35 / 60 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 31 2 37 / 70 30 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 36 17 43 / 90 60 20 5
CHAMA........................... -1 26 -9 32 / 20 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 10 32 6 35 / 50 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... -3 22 -12 31 / 30 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 6 31 2 38 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 14 31 9 35 / 40 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 15 33 11 37 / 40 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 15 36 12 41 / 30 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 36 19 39 / 50 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 24 37 13 41 / 50 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 23 35 16 37 / 50 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 24 36 18 39 / 50 20 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 24 36 16 41 / 60 40 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 18 32 14 34 / 60 20 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 32 8 36 / 50 20 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 22 32 18 37 / 50 50 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 18 27 15 33 / 60 60 30 10
RATON........................... 8 32 3 40 / 30 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 10 31 8 40 / 50 10 0 0
ROY............................. 12 31 17 41 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 13 32 13 39 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 33 16 44 / 20 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 18 33 15 41 / 10 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 35 13 43 / 20 10 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 21 34 16 42 / 10 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 21 35 14 43 / 10 10 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 24 34 22 39 / 30 40 10 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ008-014.
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ015>017-026.
&&
$$
GUYER