AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 935 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007
.EVENING UPDATE...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FCST. FCST MIN TEMPS IN AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST GDNC... OBS AND 00Z DULLES SOUNDING. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SNOW STILL LOOKS RSNBL FOR LATE TUESDAY GIVEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING ESE FROM THE GRT LKS. THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN
OUR NORTHERN CWFA...SUCH AS NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND CLOSER TO THE
BETTER LAPSE RATES PRODUCED BY UPPER TROUGH. MARINE WINDS ABOUT 10
KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
JB
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AS THE
NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ACARS 400-250MB
WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A NORTHWESTERLY 120-160KT JET FROM THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FROM A 1000MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA
EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A 1028MB
ANTICYCLONE DOMINATED THE GULF STATES. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE ROTATES EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ON NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKY DURING THE
EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL EFFICIENTLY WITH DECOUPLING
IN THE DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE SHEARING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THEREFORE WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WESTERLY FLOW TO INDUCE SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY. 12Z
NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS WASHINGTON DC...AND FLURRIES INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z GFS MODEL COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EUROPEAN MODEL IN RESPECT
TO TIMING AND TRACK OF COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
THU-THU NIGHT. LATEST ENSEMBLE PLOT ALSO SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING
WITH THIS LOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A WINTER PRECIP EVENT
ACROSS THE AREA THU-THU NIGHT. THIS IS ABOUT 24 HRS FASTER THAN
RUNS FROM 24 HRS AGO. TREND IN THE MODELS IS ALSO FOR A FURTHER
EAST TRACK AND TO HOLD THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC LONGER RESULTING IN
A MOSTLY FROZEN PRECIP EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GENERIC
RAIN/SNOW WORDING AS THIS EVENT IS STILL MORE THAN 72 HRS AWAY AND
THERE IS STILL PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z
FRI.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...CONTINUED COLD PATTERN AND MAINLY DRY AS
SVRL SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO STREAM IN FOR PERIODS
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TUESDAY
WITH MIXING.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING.
12Z ETA/MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS FALL BELOW
10KT THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE TO 15KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z
NAM/GFS PROXIMITY BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF UP TO 25KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT BELOW
ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WAXING TOWARD A FULL MOON
IN EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE NOAA
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST TIDAL DEPARTURES
GRADUALLY RETURN TO ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TUESDAY TO 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM...ROSA
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI
MARINE...ROGOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 244 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
...POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT AND
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ACARS
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 100-120KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND A 130-150KT SOUTHWESTERLY
JET FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 11Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE...THEN EAST ACROSS THE DELMARVA. A 1029MB
ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. BAYARD AND MOUNT STORM CHECKED IN WITH 1-1.5" ALREADY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING
ABOUT A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND THE
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO HAVE BEEN CLUSTERED BETWEEN 0.5-0.7" FOR
THE PAST FEW RUNS AT KEKN. THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS ALSO
WITHIN THE VERTICAL MOTION FORCED BY THE TERRAIN. WITH REPORTS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF UNSTABLE AIR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST 3
COUNTIES...AND A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON
COUNTIES.
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT APPEAR INTERESTING WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS VERY APPARENT WITH 7-9C/KM
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 700MB. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING WITH THE INSTABILITY.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOS DO NOT PRESENT MUCH QPF OR PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THIS IS A CASE FOR GOING WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE. IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. IT COULD
SNOW HEAVILY FOR A BIT IN SOME PLACES AS THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
LAYER IS WITHIN THE UNSTABLE 900-700MB LAYER.
APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION ARE ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95...WHERE THE INCOMING INSTABILITY WILL INTERSECT
REMAINING SHEAR AXIS ALOFT. TO NARROW IT DOWN FURTHER...THE
BALTIMORE METRO AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF AN INCH OR GREATER. FOR
NOW HAVE MENTIONED AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW ADVISORY AS INSTABILITY
COMES IN TO SEE HOW MUCH OF A PLAYER THE SHEAR AXIS IS FOR FOCUSING
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR HIGH IMPACT SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE.
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A CYCLONE QUICKLY DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE
AND THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO BUILD IN...CAUSING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ALBEIT
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. WENT
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH PRESENCE OF STRONG
COLD ADVECTION AND SOME AREAS OF ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED...UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS
PRETTY MUCH WILL BE STATUS QUO UNTIL THURSDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVEL EAST WITHIN THE FLOW...WITH TWO NOTABLE
SHORTWAVES...ONE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER ON THURSDAY.
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST LATER THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN MONDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMES TROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED TO WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DID NOT REALLY DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...JUST
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WINTRY MIX
ON FRIDAY W OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND WILL HAVE RN/SN MIX FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE NIGHT. LIFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...UNTIL THE GRADIENT RELAXES
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE 20KTS.
12Z ETA/MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO
20KT LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. 12Z NAM/GFS PROXIMITY BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASE TO JUST OVER
30KT LATE TONIGHT. WITH STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AS A CYCLONE QUICKLY
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND STRONG DYNAMICS PASSING
OVERHEAD...WILL GO SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE AND RAISE
A GALE WARNING FOR 35KT WIND GUSTS THROUGH 10AM.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS
OVER THE WATERS...SOME 20KT MAY SHOW UP IN THE BAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW TRAVELS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.TIDES...
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A HALF FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMIC
PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WAXING TOWARD A FULL MOON IN EARLY
FEBRUARY (79% FULL).
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE NOAA
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN
AT CURRENT DEPARTURES OR GRADUALLY RETURN TO ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ021.
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ021.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ054-501-503.
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TIDES...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM...LISTEMAA
MARINE...ROGOWSKI/LISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
AFDLWX 1040 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007
.SHORT TERM...
...SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
...POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT AND
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ACARS
400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 100-120KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND A 130-150KT SOUTHWESTERLY
JET FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. 11Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE...THEN EAST ACROSS THE DELMARVA. A 1029MB
ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ON THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST
AFFECTING MAINLY LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WERE RECORDED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS...WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH.
A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. BAYARD AND MOUNT STORM CHECKED IN WITH 1-1.5" ALREADY
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT MOUNT STORM OF 0.07"
(20 TO 1 SNOW RATIO). THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
INDICATING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO HAVE BEEN CLUSTERED
BETWEEN 0.5-0.7" FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS AT KEKN. THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH LAYER IS ALSO WITHIN THE VERTICAL MOTION FORCED BY THE
TERRAIN. WITH REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF UNSTABLE AIR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST 3 COUNTIES...AND ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS
HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES.
IN BETWEEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW AND SHEAR AXIS RAIN...NOT SEEING MUCH
FORCING SO HAVE REMOVED POPS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT APPEAR INTERESTING WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. INSTABILITY IS VERY APPARENT WITH 7-9C/KM
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 700MB. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING WITH THE
INSTABILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOS DO NOT PRESENT MUCH QPF OR
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THIS IS A CASE FOR GOING
WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR NOW AND WILL LOOK AT
FURTHER OBSERVATIONS FOR POSSIBLY INCREASING THEM FURTHER AND
INCLUDING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IT COULD SNOW HEAVILY FOR A BIT IN
SOME PLACES AS THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE 900-700MB LAYER.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS BACK FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL
OFF THE EAST COAST (AND MAY BEGIN TO GUST AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES). SHEAR AXIS SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VFR VISBY
WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METRO TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT SCT-BKN040 TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
ARE BETWEEN 15-20KTS. OBSERVED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE MIX LAYER ARE
20KT ON THE 12Z KIAD RAOB.
00Z ETA/06Z MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
8-12KTS TODAY. 06Z NAM/GFS PROXIMITY BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 15-20KTS. WITH STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT THIS EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH 20KT WIND GUSTS.
&&
.TIDES...
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN A HALF FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMIC
PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WAXING TOWARD A FULL MOON IN EARLY
FEBRUARY.
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE NOAA
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN
AT CURRENT DEPARTURES OR GRADUALLY RETURN TO ASTRONOMIC PREDICTIONS
THROUGH THIS TONIGHT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ021.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ054.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...ROGOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
AFDMQT 940 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007
.UPDATE...
RADAR INDICATED A PROMINENT LES BAND FROM THE LEELANAU PENINSULA TO
SE UPPER MI. MESO-LOW CHARACTER TO THE BAND INTO THE AREA FROM
KESC-KISQ WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. 00Z AREA TAMDAR SNDGS SHOWED 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR -17C WITH MOIST PROFILE OR NO INVERSION TO 700 MB(KPLN). THE
00Z NAM WAS CATCHING ON TO THIS FEATURE WHILE THE 18Z RUC13 HAD BEST
GRASP OF THE LES SCENARIO. THE SHRTWV OVER NE WI IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SE HELPING TO DRAG THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ALONG. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A STRONG ENOUGH NRLY FLOW TO PUSH THE BAND OUT OF THE CWA BY
06Z-09Z. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE
BAND(PER REPORT NEAR PT AUX BARQUES)...EXPECT LCL AMOUNTS INTO THE
4-8 INCH RANGE. SO...LES WARNING WAS POSTED FOR DELTA-SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES.
FARTHER NORTH...LES WAS ALSO INCREASING JUST OFFSHORE FROM MARQUETTE
AND WERE MOVING INLAND AS NE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE RUC13
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST LOW LVL CONV WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FORM
KP59-STANNARD ROCK VCNTY SOUTHWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT LES INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS MORE LIMITED...GIVEN UNORGANIZED LOOK OF THE LES ON
RADAR. SO...WILL ONLY MODERATELY BOOST GOING SNOWFALL AMOUNT FCST
INTO THIS AREA.
&&
JLB
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007.
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO MOVE INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN ON FRI...
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RDG
OVER THE ERN PAC AND NW NOAM WHILE DOWNSTREAM A BROAD TROF IS NOTED
MUCH OF CANADA EXTENDING INTO GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. THIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR POLAR VORTEX TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPR GREAT
LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING JUST TO OUR S HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TODAY TO MUCH OF WI AND
SOME FLURRIES TO SW UPR MI. WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE N-NE THIS
EVENING BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LES BACK ONSHORE
TONIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUE)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS LES FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE.
SFC/MARINE OBS SHOWS WINDS ALREADY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO NE
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN LINE WITH FCST OF RUC AND LOCAL MESOSCALE
MODELS. MID-LAKE LES CONVERGENCE BAND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TO
COME ONSHORE THIS EVENING INTO WRN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES AS WINDS
SHIFT TO N-NE BEHIND CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW DIVING S. EXPECT A BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW AS CONVERGENCE BAND COMES THROUGH AND THEN LOOK FOR
SOME WIND-PARALLEL BANDS SETTING UP BEHIND IT INTO TUE.
WEAK ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING FROM MID-LVL TROF PASSAGE COULD BOOST
SNOW AMTS SOME...BUT SHIFTING WINDS WILL NOT FOCUS HEAVY BANDS OVER
ANY ONE AREA FOR TOO LONG. BEST CONVERGENCE WITH N-NE FLOW WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR MQT COUNTY WHERE MESOSCALE MODEL QPF AROUND .10-.15
INCH COULD BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES AT SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTY...GENERALLY EXPECT 1-2". DID BUMP POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH GOOD CYCLONIC
FLOW AND POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROF.
LOOKS LIKE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END QUICKLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
MIDDAY TUE AS FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND BACKS MORE WRLY WITH
BUILDING SFC RDG FROM THE NRN PLAINS. LEFT HIGHER POPS OVER ERN
COUNTIES DUE TO LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW TO W FLOW.
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON)...
TUE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHRTWV OVER THE NE PORTION OF NUNAVUT
MOVING SSE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE NAM BRINGS THIS SHRTWV MUCH CLOSER TO
THE CWA THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS (NEAR WAWA BY 06Z)...BUT BELIEVE
THIS IS TOO CLOSE GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO MONTANA. THEREFORE WILL
FOLLOW THE GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN AND OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS...WHICH
KEEP THE SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE NE. BASICALLY...AS THIS SHRTWV MOVES
DOWN...VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DPVA HELP TO PRODUCE A MID
CLOUD DECK WHICH MOVES OVER THE CWA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...A
CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND LOOKS LIKELY...AIDED BY LAND BREEZES.
RIGHT NOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
LUCE COUNTY AND EASTERN ALGER COUNTY...WHERE OUR LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF-ARW RUN PRINTS OUT UP TO 0.40 OF AN INCH OF QPF
BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH...BUT GIVEN A FAVORABLE LAKE
ENHANCED SETUP WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND IN THE HIGH QPF AREA SINCE THESE CONTINUE TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
EVENT IN CASE IT AMOUNTS TO MORE. GOING FORECAST TEMPS SEEM
REASONABLE.
WED...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER MONTANA IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO NEBRASKA BY
00Z WHILE A WEAKER EXTENSION OF THIS SHRTWV EXTENDS UP INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE TROUGH WILL BE TO SWITCH THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MORE WSW...THEREFORE ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT
BAND OVER THE NE CWA TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KEWEENAW AREA THOUGH...GIVEN THAT THE WIND
FLOW IS STILL NOT TRUE SW...THEREFORE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHRTWV AND STILL
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...FEEL IT IS STILL PRUDENT TO
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. HOWEVER ANY SYNOPTIC SNOW RIGHT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG DEAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR THAT THEY
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO TUE AS SW FLOW ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO ABOUT 3-5C HIGHER.
WED NIGHT AND THU...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV TROUGH IS SHOWN BY THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF TO DROP S THROUGH CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THU EVENING (MORE MENTIONED ABOUT THIS SHRTWV IN THE NEXT PERIOD
DISCUSSION). THIS SHRTWV WILL CAUSE THE PREVIOUS WEAKER SHRTWV
TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE EVENING. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND -16C BEHIND THE
SHRTWV...AND WITH A LIGHT TO NEARLY LAND-BREEZE CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CHANCES REMAINS FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WED
NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE CWA DRY...WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. BECAUSE
OF THE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS...DROPPED LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
ON THU...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH
THE CWA...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT AS THE POPS STATE...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT. HAVE ALSO
KEPT 30 POPS IN FOR THE SAME LAKE EFFECT AREA MENTIONED WED
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE 950MB AND SURFACE WINDS TURNING TRUE SW AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW...THINK MUCH OF THE SNOW MAY END UP BEING IN THE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WED GIVEN
SIMILAR 850MB READINGS AND SOME PARTIAL SUN IN THE MORNING TO HELP
OUT.
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...THE WORD FOR THIS PERIOD IS COLD.
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE THE THEME THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OF SUGGESTING THAT THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY SITUATED
NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN...DUE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO EASTERN ALASKA AND
A STRONG SHRTWV NORTH OF ALASKA RIDING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS SHRTWV MAY RESULT IN AN INTERESTING FRI FOR THE CWA AS
MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT BOTH IT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW (THE
ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA ON THU) ARE
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT. THEN ON FRI AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS UPPER MI...THE
COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID -20S C
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE CWA ON STRONG NW WINDS...POSSIBLY EVEN
GALES ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...LAKE EFFECT
THAT THE DOES FORM ONCE THE COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN WILL LIKELY
CONSIST OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES...AND WITH THE WIND...BLOWING SNOW WITH
VERY LOW VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME A CONCERN. COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE CWA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE POLAR
VORTEX HEADS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF THAT THE VORTEX WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOME
POINT ON SUN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C. IF WINDS CAN
BACK TO THE WEST AT NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR AND DIMINISH TO
LIGHT...AND SKIES CAN CLEAR...-20S F TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON ALL THREE PARAMETERS AT
THIS POINT AND RESULTS IN GOING NOW LOWER THAN -15F AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE...WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE WEEKEND
GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN U.P.. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE VORTEX WILL
STAY AROUND...WITH THE 06Z/12Z GFS MUCH QUICKER ON EXITING IT (SUN
NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH STILL HAS IT NEAR WAWA MON
EVENING. PREFER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO HPC PROGS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING COLD IN THE HWO. ON A FINAL
NOTE...THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THE ARCTIC AIR MIGHT HANG AROUND
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AFTER MON...RAISING SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL
FOR PIPES UNDERGROUND FREEZING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EXIST ON THE
GROUND. WILL WAIT AND SEE ON THIS...BUT AT A MINIMUM...EVERYONE
SHOULD TRY TO MAKE SURE ANY EXPOSED PIPES ARE INSULATED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10Z FOR MIZ013-014.
&&
$$
AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
AFDAPX 1100 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007
.UPDATE...NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING DOMINATED BY COLD NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
IMPRESSIVE OVER WATER INSTABILITY (DELTA T VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
20C) AND REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE KICKING OFF NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. RECENT CALLS
TO SPOTTERS IN WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS SHOWS ABOUT 5 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW OVER PARTS OF LEELANAU COUNTY WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SOME LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS IS STEADILY DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ATTENTION THIS MORNING REMAINS CENTERED ON LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND
ASSOCIATED LAKE SNOW HEADLINES.
REST OF TODAY...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND MOISTURE QUICKLY ROTATES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORTWAVE RACES
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. WESTERN LAKES SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. SOME
EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH LAKE SUPERIOR BANDS ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS 1000MB-850MB WINDS
BACK AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO SHOWING
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH MORNING ACARS
SOUNDINGS OUT OF SAWYER IN THE CENTRAL U.P AND RHINELANDER IN NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS AT ONLY 850MB (ABOUT
4.5KFT). EXPECT NORTHERN MICHIGAN WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...DIRECTING BANDS ONCE AGAIN FARTHER
INLAND. OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...DESPITE
EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY...WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
850MB-700MB MOISTURE DROPPING TO <40 PERCENT. BASED OFF CALLS AND
EXPECTED TRANSIENT AND WEAKENING NATURE OF BANDS...WILL DROP
MANISTEE COUNTY (ONLY HAD ABOUT AN INCH SO FAR) AND DOWNGRADE BENZIE
AND GRAND TRAVERSE TO AN ADVISORY. COULD SEE LOCALIZED WARNING
CRITERIA AMOUNT JUST WEST OF THE WEST ARM OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
WHERE BETTER BANDING HAS SET UP THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXTREME
LOCALIZED NATURE OF EVENT DOES NOT WARRANT A WARNING. WILL LEAVE
LEELANAU COUNTY AS IS WITH RECENT 5 INCH REPORT AND SEVERAL BANDS
YET TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOWER THREAT WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 OVER THE NORTHERN
LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REMNANT BANDS PROPAGATE
FARTHER INLAND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. LAKE
HURON BANDS WILL HANG ON A COUPLE HOURS MORE UNTIL THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION. ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...COLD NORTHEAST DRAINAGE FLOW HAS KEPT BANDS WELL
WEST OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. MUCH LIKE THE NORTHERN LOWER...BANDS WILL
MOVE BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BACKING WINDS. COULD SEE
UP TO AN INCH NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WITH LONGER LAKE SUPERIOR FETCH
PARTIALLY OVERCOMING OTHER NEGATIVE PARAMETERS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DRAINAGE FLOW HAS SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER EASTERN SECTION OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
AND NEAR THE TIP OF THE MIT. HENCE...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.
UPDATED WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS/GRIDS/ZONES/NEARSHORES OUT SHORTLY.
MSB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007
IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SHORT WAVE CENTER AND AREA
OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HEADING
TOWARD ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC... TROUGH/BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN NOW
ROUGHLY ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR WHILE LAST BIT OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
ALSO SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HEAVIEST LAKE
EFFECT BANDING HAS SHIFTED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AREA AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. BUT
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE MESO-LOW FEATURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE SHARP TROUGH NOW SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH GRAND
TRAVERSE/KALKASKA COUNTIES. SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE BANDING NOTED
COMING OFF LAKE HURON INTO PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY AND INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND DISPOSITION OF ONGOING
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
TODAY...FIRST OFF...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHER POPS OVER MUCH OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS LAST BIT OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
(AND MESO-LOW FEATURE) SLIDES SOUTH WITH THE SHARP SFC TROUGH...
COUPLED WITH NNE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON PRODUCING DECENT LIGHT SNOW
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS DONE FOR THE SO CALLED "BIG 5
COUNTIES" AND WILL ALLOW HEADLINES TO EXPIRE WITH MORNING FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT EVENT AS MEAN 1000-850
MB FLOW TURNS ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH AND COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO NRN
MICHIGAN. FROM A LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT...CONDITIONS LOOKING GOOD
FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LAKE-850 MB DELTA T/S AROUND 20C/WEAK OR NON EXISTENT INVERSIONS/
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ONLY
HINDRANCE WILL BE THE MEAN FLOW WHICH CURRENT LAPS DATA SHOWS IS
VEERING BEHIND THE TROUGH TO ~020/030 DEGREES ON THE MICHIGAN SIDE
THIS MORNING...AND SUGGESTS LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTIES GET THE BULK OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TO ~360
DEGREES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON PULLING SNOW BANDS BACK TOWARD GRAND
TRAVERS COUNTY. AT THIS POINT WILL LET ONGOING WARNINGS/ADVISORY FOR
GRAND TRAVERSE/LEELANAU/BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES RIDE...AND LET THE
EVENT PLAY OUT FOR AWHILE. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED:
BASED ON THE PARAMETERS WE CERTAINLY SHOULD SEE INCH PER HOUR TYPE
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON PRODUCING OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS (AGAIN
LEELANAU/BENZIE COUNTIES) AND LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. WILL OPEN THE RANGE A BIT MORE FOR GRAND TRAVERSE
COUNTY (2-6) GIVEN THE EARLY NNE FLOW TARGETING HIGHEST ACCUMS OVER
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG
DRYING ALOFT STILL INDICATED WITH 850-700 MEAN RH LOWERING TO <50
PERCENT AS HIGH PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOSES INTO THE NRN
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKING TO BACK TOWARD NNW OR NW BY EARLY
EVENING WHICH WILL PULL REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS BACK TOWARD THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE GREAT OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY...THE OTHER MENTIONED FACTORS SHOULD TEMPER SNOW SHOWER
INTENSITIES BY THAT POINT. THUS DO NOT FORESEE ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEYOND THE CURRENT ONES.
LAKE HURON SIDE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE NNE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO PRESQUE ISLE AND ALPENA
COUNTIES EARLY ON...BUT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST (OR
OFFSHORE) AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHERLY. FURTHER BACKING OF THE WIND
TOWARD IN THE AFTERNOON MAY ESTABLISH A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION
WITH SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS SKIRTING ALONG THE SHORELINE STRETCH
OF PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. BUT OVERALL...WITH THE SHIFTING WIND PATTERN
WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN.
FINALLY...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NE FLOW PRETTY MUCH KEEPING
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN OUT OF THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARD NORTH WHICH WOULD PULL SOME SNOW
SHOWERS BACK TOWARD WHITEFISH POINT...AND EVENTUALLY TO NW THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...DRYING ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE OVERSPREADING LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND SHOULD KEEP OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY
(2 OR 3 INCHES AT BEST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT).
TONIGHT...FURTHER DRYING CONTINUES WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM NW IN
THE EVENING AROUND TO ROUGHLY WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. INTERESTING TO
NOTE HOWEVER...LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING FORECAST TO REDEVELOP FROM
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE LAKES. SO ALTHOUGH
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS...LAKE TROUGHING
MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY ESPECIALLY THE WHITEFISH POINT AREA. FOR
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE INLAND AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT...WITH AN
INCH OR TWO TOTAL ACCUMULATION IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS.
MONDAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRAVERSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GENERATING
SOME SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...NAM/GFS
DISAGREE OVER TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NAM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
KEEPING ANY SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL OUT OF NRN MICHIGAN ALTOGETHER. GFS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET (WHICH IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH) SUGGEST
SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN WITH THIS SYSTEM
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ONGOING GIVEN THE OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY...AND IF FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF UPCOMING SYSTEM IS
CORRECT WOULD EXPECT SOME SORT OF UP TICK IN LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA FOR NOW IF FOR NO
OTHER REASON THAN MODEL CONSENSUS BUT STILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCY
CATEGORY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...BUT NO
CHANGES IN THE ONGOING COLD PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. BLOCKING RIDGE
PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ONLY STRENGTHENS...WHILE DOWNSTREAM
LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NAOM DEEPENS. WITHIN
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN...SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME REINFORCING THE COLD AIR
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BRINING PERIODS OF ENHANCED SNOW/LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO THE REGION. FIRST WAVE/SFC LOW SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS IT STANDS...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A ROUND OF SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL (PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES)
PRIMARILY TO LOWER MICHIGAN FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONCERNS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF REPRIEVE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
(STILL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT) AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PASS
THROUGH. ANOTHER WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING
THE SAME CONCERNS AS TUESDAY. THIS GENERAL IDEA ALREADY PORTRAYED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH FINER DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENTS. THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
ADAM
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ020.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ025-026.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
AFDGRR 1004 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007
.UPDATED...
AS OF 10 AM THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND HAS MOVED OFF SHORE FOR MOST OF
THE GRR CWA. THERE IS A MESO-LOW JUST OFF SHORE OF HOLLAND MOVING
DUE SOUTH. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM WEST MICHIGAN SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST OR EVEN EAST BELOW 10000 FT. THERE IS SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. AT 10 AM IT WAS NEAR
INTERSTATE 96. OVERALL DUE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
TROUGH THROUGH 800 MB MOST OF TODAY... THE HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL
REMAIN OFF SHORE. EXTREME EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY MAY SEE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THE MESO LOW NEAR HOLLAND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING TOOLS SHOW THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 11 AM AND
NOON. AS A RESULT OF THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND STAYING OFF SHORE AND
ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH... I PLAN
ON DROPPING MOST OF OUR HEADLINES AROUND 11 AM. I MAY LEAVE VAN
BUREN IN A WARNING TILL 1 PM...ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW THE MESO LOW
FEATURE TO MOVE THROUGH.
I DO EXPECT THE LAKE CONVERGENCE BAND TO MOVE ON SHORE THIS EVENING
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BUT BY THEN THE INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL HAVE CRASHED AND THE FEATURE WILL BE FALLING APART. SO I SEE NO
HEADLINE ISSUES THERE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OTTAWA...ALLEGAN...VAN BUREN...
KALAMAZOO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MASON...OCEANA...AND MUSKEGON COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
$$
WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
AFDABQ 1046 AM MST SUN JAN 28 2007
.UPDATE...IMPROVED SKY COVER MANY W AND N ZONES FOR THIS PM. KEPT
MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVER EC AND SE ZONES THROUGH
EARLY TO MID PM AND ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST SUN JAN 28 2007...
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
SAN FRANCISCO ELONGATING EAST TO WEST BETWEEN AN ARCTIC SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROPICAL PLUME MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE E PACIFIC. LATEST 400-200MB AIRCRAFT WINDS
SHOWS A 80-110 KNOT JET STREAKING ACROSS THE DESERT SW IN THE BASE
OF THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
00Z MREF/03Z SREF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLN OF THE H5
PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM. 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ALSO ON BOARD
IN THE SHORT TERM THAT WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NM THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SPELLS PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING IN
THE E PLAINS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE EAST
AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS SW WINDS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO LOW TO MID
40S IN MOST AREAS...STILL 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. MODELS THEN
INDICATE A COLD FRONT TO SWING SW THRU THE NE PLAINS AND CONTINUE
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING EAST
CANYON WINDS TO DEVELOP USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY FROM CENTRAL VALLEYS EASTWARD. RAISED POPS ACROSS THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANCE AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS
MOISTENING 700-500MB SW WINDS THUS ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO WASH OUT LATE TUES INTO WED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
MODELS SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLN OF THE STORM SYSTEM
SLATED FOR WED AND THURS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO DIVE MORE TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ALLOW
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM THURS.
THIS BRINGS US INTO THE NEXT PERIOD OF ENHANCED POPS WED OR THURS.
UNDERCUT MET/MAV GUIDANCE SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER SNOW STORM ACROSS NM HOWEVER IF
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO TREND TO THE EAST WILL HAVE MORE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ANY EVENT...MODELS SHOW UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND STATEWIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 22 44 23 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 43 15 41 19 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 46 14 44 19 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 55 29 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 0 35 7 / 5 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 14 39 13 / 5 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 35 5 32 9 / 5 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 40 9 39 12 / 5 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 41 19 40 21 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 20 38 22 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 46 19 44 21 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 22 48 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 25 44 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 52 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 20 41 22 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 22 43 24 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 23 50 28 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 46 25 45 24 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 40 13 39 16 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 18 40 19 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 42 24 39 17 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 40 23 36 16 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 27 44 25 / 0 0 0 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 24 45 24 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 43 26 43 25 / 0 0 0 20
PORTALES........................ 46 25 45 24 / 5 0 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 48 27 50 29 / 5 0 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
AFDABQ 300 AM MST SUN JAN 28 2007
.DISCUSSION...
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
SAN FRANCISCO ELONGATING EAST TO WEST BETWEEN AN ARCTIC SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROPICAL PLUME MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE E PACIFIC. LATEST 400-200MB AIRCRAFT WINDS
SHOWS A 80-110 KNOT JET STREAKING ACROSS THE DESERT SW IN THE BASE
OF THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
00Z MREF/03Z SREF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLN OF THE H5
PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM. 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ALSO ON BOARD
IN THE SHORT TERM THAT WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NM THRU MON NIGHT. THIS SPELLS PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING IN
THE E PLAINS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE EAST
AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS SW WINDS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO LOW TO MID
40S IN MOST AREAS...STILL 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. MODELS THEN
INDICATE A COLD FRONT TO SWING SW THRU THE NE PLAINS AND CONTINUE
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING EAST
CANYON WINDS TO DEVELOP USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY FROM CENTRAL VALLEYS EASTWARD. RAISED POPS ACROSS THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT TO CHANCE AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS
MOISTENING 700-500MB SW WINDS THUS ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO WASH OUT LATE TUES INTO WED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
MODELS SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLN OF THE STORM SYSTEM
SLATED FOR WED AND THURS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO DIVE MORE TO THE EAST OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ALLOW
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM THURS.
THIS BRINGS US INTO THE NEXT PERIOD OF ENHANCED POPS WED OR THURS.
UNDERCUT MET/MAV GUIDANCE SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BE TALKING ABOUT ANOTHER SNOW STORM ACROSS NM HOWEVER IF
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO TREND TO THE EAST WILL HAVE MORE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN ANY EVENT...MODELS SHOW UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND STATEWIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 22 44 23 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 43 15 41 19 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 46 14 44 19 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 55 29 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 0 35 7 / 5 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 14 39 13 / 5 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 35 5 32 9 / 5 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 40 9 39 12 / 5 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 41 19 40 21 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 20 38 22 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 46 19 44 21 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 26 46 29 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 22 48 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 25 44 28 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 52 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 20 41 22 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 22 43 24 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 23 50 28 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 46 25 45 24 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 40 13 39 16 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 18 40 19 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 42 24 39 17 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 40 23 36 16 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 27 44 25 / 0 0 0 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 24 41 25 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 24 45 24 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 43 26 43 25 / 0 0 0 20
PORTALES........................ 46 25 45 24 / 5 0 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 48 27 50 29 / 5 0 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER