Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 02/02/07

.SYNOPSIS...DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...THERE WAS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACARS SOUNDINGS HAD W TO NW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH 3-4 MB SAN-IPL.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE E OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY NW TO N FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THU FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AND ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF AND TEND TO BE CONFINED TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH THU MORNING. JUST SLIGHT WARMING THU. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME DRIER OUT OF THE N FRI WITH OFFSHORE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING FOR A LITTLE MORE WARMING AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST OFF THE W COAST AND THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SAT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMER DAY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MORE WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR GRADUAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING. EXPECT MULTIPLE CU AND STRATOCU LAYERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE LOWEST SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET WITH ADDITIONAL BROKEN LAYERS AROUND 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREAS FROM 2 AM THU THROUGH 2 AM SAT. SEE LAXCFWSGX.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...HORTON

.DISCUSSION... WINTER WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...

09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CO. A STNRY BNDRY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE E PLAINS OF NM. LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER SOCA PUSHING EAST TOWARD THE BAJA AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IR SAT IMG SHOWS STRONG CLOUD TOP COOLING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE INCR OVER SE CO AND NE NM. 400-200MB AIRCRAFT WINDS SHOW A 80-100 KNOT JET DIVING SOUTH BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND A 130 KNOT JET STNRY ACROSS TEXAS.

00Z MREF ALONG WITH 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET INDICATE THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PHASE OVER E AZ AND NM WED AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN INTO A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. EXPECTING NMRS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS. ACTIVITY WILL INCR IN INTENSITY TOWARD DUSK WITH H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORIES UNTIL 12Z THU FOR MOST AREAS WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SQUEEZE OUT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z NAM ALSO SUGGESTING AREA OF GOOD CSI TO SET UP ACROSS NE PLAINS OF NM AS STRONG COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CROSS SECTION INDICATES STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP BELOW LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV WITHIN A SATURATED COLUMN. WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR NM ZONES 5...6...AND 7 TO COVER SNOWFALL THERE THRU 12Z.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E PLAINS. WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SNOWPACK AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. BEYOND THE WEEKEND IT APPEARS A SLOW WARM UP TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 39 18 34 16 / 60 50 10 20 GALLUP.......................... 35 15 34 14 / 60 70 30 20 GRANTS.......................... 36 16 35 13 / 60 60 20 20 GLENWOOD........................ 43 29 46 26 / 50 60 40 20 CHAMA........................... 24 5 25 0 / 80 50 20 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 18 34 14 / 60 60 20 20 RED RIVER....................... 22 5 22 -3 / 80 70 20 30 TAOS............................ 33 12 29 7 / 70 60 20 30 SANTA FE........................ 32 19 30 16 / 50 60 20 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 20 32 18 / 50 50 20 20 ESPANOLA........................ 36 24 35 14 / 60 50 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 26 36 24 / 40 30 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 24 38 21 / 40 30 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 22 32 20 / 40 40 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 25 35 23 / 40 40 10 10 SOCORRO......................... 44 30 44 24 / 40 20 10 5 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 20 30 17 / 50 60 20 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 22 35 13 / 40 50 10 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 40 27 40 21 / 30 20 20 5 RUIDOSO......................... 35 24 33 23 / 40 40 30 20 RATON........................... 32 9 30 4 / 40 60 20 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 33 13 31 9 / 40 60 20 10 ROY............................. 32 14 30 13 / 30 60 20 10 CLAYTON......................... 28 11 25 10 / 30 60 20 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 41 22 40 22 / 30 50 20 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 37 19 36 17 / 30 60 30 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 39 24 43 21 / 20 50 20 5 CLOVIS.......................... 36 24 39 23 / 20 50 30 10 PORTALES........................ 38 25 41 22 / 20 40 30 10 ROSWELL......................... 44 29 40 29 / 20 20 10 5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ001>004-008-010-011-014-016-017-026.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ005>007.

SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ009.

&&

$$

GUYER

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 9.1 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ASTORIA AND THE DALLES. THE PORTLAND TO THE DALLES PRESSURE DIFFERENCE JUST INCREASED ABOVE THE TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES DIFFERENCE INDICATING THAT THE LEESIDE MESO LOW NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE GORGE HAS STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOW 40 KT EASTERLIES ABOVE THE PORTLAND AIRPORT WITH A CRITICAL LAYER AROUND 800 MB WHERE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO LIGHT NORTHERLY. WITH ALL THESE PIECES IN PLACE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING SURFACING MOUNTAIN WAVES LOOK LIKELY. I EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND TROUTDALE AREA TO SHIFT EAST TO AROUND THE PORTLAND AIRPORT AND I-250 BRIDGE AREA BY MID MORNING.

MODELS SHOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DECREASING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE I EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR MORE SLOWLY AND LATER IN THE DAY...THE TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS SLACKING THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND INTO THE ARE ON THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING FALLING TEMPERATURES. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GORGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. RUTHFORD.

.LONG TERM...GENERAL PATTERN TO REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME (SAT). MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG UPPER RIDGE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST. APPEARS THE MODELS ARE DELAYING ANY PATTERN CHANGE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY GFS RUNS SHOWED THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SUN. NOW...IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH SUN. ALL MAJOR MODELS (GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/NOGAPS ETC) KEEP THE RIDGE INTACT SUN. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW CHANCE-TYPE POPS SUN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AND WILL LIKELY TONE THOSE DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. HARD TO IMAGING THE RIDGE MOVING ANYWHERE WITH SUCH A STRONG HUDSON BAY LOW. EVENTUALLY...SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE AND MODELS DO INDICATE THE RIDGE WEAKENING MON. GFS AND ECMWF GRUDGINGLY SLIDE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST MON AS SOME SORT OF SYSTEM TRIES TO SLIDE IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...MAY GET AWAY WITH A DRY DAY MON AS WELL. BEYOND MON LOOKS LIKE A TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WOULD BE THE BEST BET. GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TUE GRADUALLY MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST. CONFIDENCE FOR DAYS 6-7 NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT BASED ON ENSEMBLE CHARTS. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS NEAR THE WEST END OF THE GORGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DECREASING EAST WINDS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THU. &&

.MARINE...GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 21 KT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 FT.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES .OR/WA...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS... AST 00000 PDX 00000 SLE 00000 EUG 00000 $$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST THIS WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST WINDS NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS. THE DRY WEATHER MAY NOT LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE DISPLACED BY THE WESTERLY JET STREAM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

PORTLAND-THE DALLES GRADIENT HOLDING STEADY AT ABOUT -7 MB BRINGING PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH NEAR THE WESTERN GORGE. 18Z AND 00Z WRF MODEL ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CLARK AND MULTNOMAH COUNTIES THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FOR STRONG INVERSION AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THAT MAY SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF RIDGE EVENTUALLY BEING UNDERCUT BY SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM FRONT MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE TRUNCATED RIDGE AND BRUSH WASH AND NW OREGON. WEATHER WILL STAY DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS DRY AGAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN MODELS HINT AT WESTERLIES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. A VERY STRONG 200 MB WINDS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC MAY BE HARBINGER FOR THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS BEING LOW CLOUDS EAST OF CASCADE LOCKS AND INCREASING EAST WINDS THROUGH AND JUST WEST OF THE GORGE.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH WED. SEAS NEAR 6 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES .OR/WA......NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT POPS... AST 001110 PDX 001110 SLE 0011100 EUG 001100 $$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... Http://weather.gov/portland

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... LOW CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION,..BUT EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR WITH THE MIXING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE THE TEXT TO REMOVE THE MORNING FORECAST. WILL ALSO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... LAPS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRONG. EXPECT INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...SO LOW IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW DUE TO DRIZZLE AND FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING MAY MIX OUT. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AFTER 00Z AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MESONET DATA SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME 33 TO 35 READINGS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO WATER REFREEZING ON ROADWAYS IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...LEAVING THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB.

GFS APPEARS A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING OUT CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL BE FAVORING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC WRF...THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL TODAY. THE EXTENDED CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT AND WENT WELL BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE A HIGH OF 57 AT CAE. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOMETIME LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MOISTURE AND THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA...WHERE BEFORE THEY WERE BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THOUGH...STAYING BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS...KEEPING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A BRIEF...REINFORCING SHOT OFF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... 06Z-12Z...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CAE CWA WITH WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AOB 5 HUNDRED FT AND VSBYS BELOW 3 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. 12Z-21Z...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL PULL FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS 1-2 THOUSAND FT. IFR VSBYS 2-3 MILES IN FOG TIL 16Z THEN VSBYS 7 MILES. 21Z-06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 3 THOUSAND FT AND VSBYS 7 MILES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA HAVE WARMED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LANCASTER COUNTY REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULL OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. BY MID EVENING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN AGAIN ENVELOPING THE MIDLANDS. FOR THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THE LEVELS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ENSURING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENTING THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 COLD ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WEST FLOW AND MIXING WILL PROBABLY CAUSE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAV MOS IS THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS AND COLD GROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY MELTED ICE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

EXPECT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOW H85 COLD ADVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. PLAN TO USE THE MAV MOS AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL ALSO USE THE MAV MOS TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD BECAUSE OF THE NEARBY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT AND AFFECTS OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF MOISTURE DOES ADVANCE FARTHER INLAND THAN FORECAST THEN WOULD EXPECT WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT A COLD AND DRY PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS REINFORCING DRY FRONTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GENERALLY USED THE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...05

.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... LAPS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRONG. EXPECT INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...SO LOW IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW DUE TO DRIZZLE AND FOG. SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18ZZ AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING MAY MIX OUT. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AFTER 00Z AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MESONET DATA SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME 33 TO 35 READINGS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...SO WATER REFREEZING ON ROADWAYS IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...LEAVING THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB.

GFS APPEARS A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING OUT CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING...AND WILL BE FAVORING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC WRF...THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL TODAY. THE EXTENDED CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT AND WENT WELL BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE A HIGH OF 57 AT CAE. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOMETIME LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS FIGURED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MOISTURE AND THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA...WHERE BEFORE THEY WERE BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THOUGH...STAYING BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS...KEEPING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A BRIEF...REINFORCING SHOT OFF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... 06Z-12Z...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CAE CWA WITH WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AOB 5 HUNDRED FT AND VSBYS BELOW 3 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. 12Z-21Z...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL PULL FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS 1-2 THOUSAND FT. IFR VSBYS 2-3 MILES IN FOG TIL 16Z THEN VSBYS 7 MILES. 21Z-06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 3 THOUSAND FT AND VSBYS 7 MILES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA HAVE WARMED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LANCASTER COUNTY REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL EXPECT RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULL OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. BY MID EVENING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN AGAIN ENVELOPING THE MIDLANDS. FOR THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THE LEVELS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ENSURING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENTING THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY. THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 COLD ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME. WEST FLOW AND MIXING WILL PROBABLY CAUSE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAV MOS IS THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS AND COLD GROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY MELTED ICE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

EXPECT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOW H85 COLD ADVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. PLAN TO USE THE MAV MOS AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WILL ALSO USE THE MAV MOS TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD BECAUSE OF THE NEARBY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT AND AFFECTS OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF MOISTURE DOES ADVANCE FARTHER INLAND THAN FORECAST THEN WOULD EXPECT WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT A COLD AND DRY PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS REINFORCING DRY FRONTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GENERALLY USED THE ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. &&

$$

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM... TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BRUSHED THE AREA WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WHILE STRONG DRYING AND WARMING TOOK PLACE BETWEEN 3000 AND 10000 FEET. MODELS MOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR CONTINUED DRYING AND WARMING TREND WITH PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW BELOW 15000 FEET. ABOVE THIS LEVEL MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW FLUCTUATIONS IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS LIKELY COMING FROM SHORT WAVES BUMPING INTO AND RIDING OVER THE RIDGE...SO NEXT FOUR DAYS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE BUT FAIR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN OF LATE AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM... MODELS UNDERCUT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AND ESTABLISH STORM TRACK ALONG 30-35N LATITUDE FROM THEN ON. ONLY ARGUMENT AGAINST THIS IS THAT THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT IS IN PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A PERSISTENT REX BLOCK IF LOW CENTERED OVER MEXICO IS NOT KICKED OUT. LEFT EXTENDED FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION... LATE MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 3000 FEET SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KOKB AND KCNO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND POOR NIGHT TIME RECOVERY WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS OF 10-14 MB FOR SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. HOWEVER ONLY THE LOCAL WIND PROGRAM RUN OFF THE 12Z NGM MODEL SUPPORTS THESE STRENGTHS...THE OTHER TWO MODELS SHOWED WIND GUSTS ABOUT HALF AS STRONG ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY WIND PRONE AREAS. THIS MIXED SIGNAL COUPLED WITH INPUT FROM GACC SOUTH OPS THAT THE RECENT RAINS SHOULD HAVE A DAMPENING EFFECT FOR ABOUT FIVE DAYS...INTO TUESDAY...WEIGHED IN FAVOR OF NOT ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER DID ISSUE AN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER ZONE FORECAST UPDATE TO INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE... THE OUTER BUOYS ARE SHOWING ABOUT A TWO FOOT DROP IN HEIGHTS SINCE THIS MORNING SO DECISION NOT TO REISSUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. INNER BUOYS STILL RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FEET AND EXPECT OCCASIONAL HIGHER BREAKERS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER REEFS AND AROUND POINTS DUE TO LOWER TIDE.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO