Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 02/14/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS UPTON NY
1025 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... COASTAL LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS S CAROLINA THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY BEGINS TO FILL AS IT RUNS INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO CANADA ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS KEEPING THE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOCKING IN A SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS. EASTERN EDGE OF INITIAL BAND OF FRONTOGENIC FORCING HAS DEVELOPED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT AT THE SAME TIME A STRENGTHENING S/SE MID-LEVEL FLOW HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 750-850 HPA LEVEL ALREADY RISING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL NJ AND INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS HAS CAUSED A TRANSITION OF LIGHT SNOW TO SLEET AND -FZRA IN RESPONSE. THINK THAT AS THIS INITIAL BAND OF FRONTOGENIC FORCING PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND SOUTHERLY 850 HPA JET INCREASES THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE FROM S TO N ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING OF THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE FREEZING RAIN AN SLEET THAN ORIGINALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...(ALREADY BEING SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NY/NJ METRO)...CONTINUING TO WORK UP THROUGH NY/NJ METRO AND LI THROUGH AROUND 04Z...INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN POSSIBLY EVEN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COASTAL CONN BY AROUND 09Z. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS WILL BE THE SURFACE BASED COLD LAYER LOCKED IN BY A N/NE FLOW. AS A RESULT...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE FREEZING RAIN UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z ACROSS LONG ISLAND...14Z OR SO NEW YORK CITY AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...AND 15-16Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE NORTH AND WEST SUBURBS OF NEW YORK CITY...UNTIL WHEN WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY AND BRING WARMER AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN. THIS EARLIER TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BUT 1/4" TO 1/2" OF SLEET AND ICE MAY BE MORE OF THE ISSUE...WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS WORKING INTO NE NEW JERSEY...MANHATTAN...BRONX...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CONNECTICUT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE FROM SW TO NE IN INTENSITY TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WHICH BE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AT THAT TIME. BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SIGNAL FOR STRONG DEEP LAYERED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. HOWEVER...LUCKILY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO FIGHT OFF ADDITIONAL COOLING PROVIDED BY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL AND URBAN TYPE FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT THE LOCATIONS OF RIVER AND STREAM BASINS ARE ACROSS AREAS THAT SHOULD RECEIVE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THEIR PRECIPITATION IN A FROZEN FORMAT...SO NOT EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN TERMS OF FINAL SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTING A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...STILL LOOKING FOR 10-18 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THIS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY A SNOW EVENT ON TUESDAY AND. REST OF THE REGION I HAVE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO WITH 5-9" ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO 2 TO 5" OVER THE NEARBY SUBURBS...BRONX AND MANHATTAN TO 1 TO 3" ACROSS QUEENS...BROOKLYN AND STATEN ISLAND. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 3 TO 6" ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY RANGING DOWN TO 1 TO 2" ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND. BUT WILL EAVE CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS IS AS THERE WILL BE AN ADDED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE COUPLED WITH THESE SNOW AMOUNTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ANY SCENARIO THAT INVOLVES SEVERAL P-TYPES AND SUCH A LARGE GRADIENT OF FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. FINALLY...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE BUFKIT IS SHOWING (DEPENDING ON MODEL) BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS AT 500-700 FEET. THIS WILL OCCUR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW PULLS NE OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SYSTEMS IMPACTS (OTHER THAN WIND) WILL BE DONE BY THURSDAY...WITH COLD AIR BUILDING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... QUIET WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HELP WARM UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAX ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE COLDER NORTHERN ZONES AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION... CIGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LAST FEW HOURS AS LIGHT PRECIP HAS MOVED IN. ACARS PROFILES INDICATE SOME WARMING ALOFT...AND WITH LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIP...HAVE SEEN A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. I EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. ATMOSPHERE FINALLY SATURATES TOWARD 12Z WHEN CEILINGS COME DOWN TO IFR. AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO POSITION ITSELF JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. BY 12Z...MOST COASTAL TERMINALS WILL CHANGE TO RA/FZRA DEPENDING OF SURFACE TEMPS. I STILL DO EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WHERE MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH BEST FORCING. LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND COLDER AIR WILL RUSH BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY MIXED PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW AFTER 21Z/22Z. WINDS AFTER 00Z THU WILL GUST WELL INTO THE 30S AND CLOSE TO 40 KTS AS SNOW WINDS DOWN. && .MARINE... DIRECT EFFECT OF A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO NEAR SCA ON THE OCEAN...SO WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INCREASING AND REACHING GALE FORCE TONIGHT...SOUND AND HARBOR EARLY WED MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE LOW WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MORNING AND DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL STORM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING ON WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KT APPEAR LIKELY WED INTO THU...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS WED NIGHT INTO THU ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND ALL OCEAN WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WED AND WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE...WHILE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP PUSHING WATER INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE HEIGHT AND TIMING OF THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HELPFUL FOR PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. ASTRO TIDES ARE QUITE LOW RIGHT NOW WITH THE RECENT FIRST QUARTER MOON. THUS WE WILL REQUIRE 2-3 FT DEPARTURES TO REACH MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS...AND 3 TO 4.5 FT TO REACH MODERATE. ALSO THE GREATEST DEPARTURES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON WED...WHICH IS AROUND THE TIME OF ASTRO LOW TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL JUST BE STARTING TO BUILD UP AT THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND IN NY HARBOR WED MORNING. THEREFORE AT THIS POINT LOOKING FOR ONLY LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS EVENT...WITH WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOW WATER PROBLEMS ON THU. WEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF FROM THE STORM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO IMPACTS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NOT BE IMMEDIATE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CONNECTICUT WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN AND RURAL FLOODING. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES HAS ALLOWED ICE TO FORM AND THICKEN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN RIVERS AND STREAMS. RIVER AND STREAMS FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS EVENT. THE GROUND HAS ALSO BECOME FROZEN ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE ANY LIQUID FORM PRECIPITATION WE GET WILL RESULT IN RUNOFF. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ007>012. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007-008-011-012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005-006. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071>081. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ077>081. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006- 011. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002>005. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330. GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 .MARINE UPDATE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WAS DROPPED IN FAVOR OF A GALE WARNING, AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE MARINE COMMUNITY THE NECESSARY ADVANCE WARNING FOR INCREASING WINDS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060>062- 067>069. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ069>071. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ070-071. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070- 071. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ007>010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ014- 020>022-026-027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-016>027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ023>025. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ012-013-015>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012- 013-015>019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ015- 019-020. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008- 012. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && .UPDATE... LOOKING AT THE OBS AND THE 18Z WRF BUFKIT, WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WE RETOOLED THE PRODUCTS TO HIT THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ABOVE THE SNOW FROM AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH. WE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ATLANTIC, ALL OF CAPE MAY AND INLAND SUSSEX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES AT TIME, OTHER THAN TO CLEAN UP SOME ACCUMULATION TOTALS NORTHWEST. PREV AFD IS BELOW. && $$ MPD ********************************************************************* .OVERVIEW... CAN`T STRESS ENOUGH THE SIGNIFICANCE OF MAKING SURE YOUR WEATHER ALERT RADIO IS WORKING PROPERLY AND YOU HAVE BATTERIES. SOME ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED OR CHANGED LATER TONIGHT WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE. FOR PARTS OF THE CWA, STORM REMINDS ME OF THE WINTER OF 93-94 WITH FREQUENT ICE/SNOWFALL EVENTS. WE`RE GONNA RUN THE GAMBIT FROM SNOW TO RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, FLOOD WATCH AND PSBLY A TSTM AND WIND BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FRIGHTENING WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROZEN GROUND. THE POTNL FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ICE IS GOING TO BE THE TOUGHEST CALL WITH THIS FORECAST. SNOW TOTAL WILL BE RAISED UP NORTH BECAUSE OF THOSE QPF AMNTS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE A GOOD TIME TO BE TRAVELING ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY. ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS JUST ABOUT OVER, A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES BORDERING THE DELAWARE RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GROUND IS FROZEN SO THE RUNOFF WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT OF WHAT FALLS. && .SHORT TERM/ TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING THE INGREDIENTS FOR A VERY NASTY NIGHT ACROSS A WIDE AREA. THE LOW FINALLY TRANSFERS ENERGY TO THE COAST WITH HEIGHT FALLS 20 DAM BY 12Z WED AND 26 DAM BY 18Z . THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE (AROUND 2.0 INCHES). THE LATEST NAM HAS A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 1.22 INCHES. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS FAR AS THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SNOW AND COMBINATION OF WINTRY WX...HAVE KEPT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREAS BUT TRIMMED BACK THE TIME FOR ENDING THEM ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MIX WITH THE WARMER AIR RIDING OVER THE COLD GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA TO LONG BEACH ISLAND NJ BY 18Z AND CAPE COD BY 7 PM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ASIDE FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT CONTINUED COLD. && .AVIATION... CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CWA AND TERMINALS, A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS EXIST. VFR TO IFR CAN BE OBSERVED. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THESE IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW AND LEAST AMOUNT OF MIX, WHILE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONES WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REFORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE DEPICTS A ONE-TWO PUNCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. FIRST A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A PERSISTENT AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. WE CURRENTLY TOP THINGS OUT AT 40 KT INTO THURSDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SOME STRONGER GUSTS. && TIDES... WE`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 400 AM THROUGH 100 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AND BACKBAYS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, THE DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, AND NEW JERSEY`S RARITAN BAYSHORE. TIDAL DEPARTURES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WHILE HIGH TIDES AT PHILADELPHIA WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. && $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...EBERWINE LONG TERM...IOVINO MARINE/AVIATION...KRUZDLO MARINE UPDATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
809 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 LOOKING AT THE OBS AND THE 18Z WRF BUFKIT, WHICH SEEMS TO LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WE RETOOLED THE PRODUCTS TO HIT THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ABOVE THE SNOW FROM AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH. WE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ATLANTIC, ALL OF CAPE MAY AND INLAND SUSSEX COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. NO OTHER SIG CHANGES AT TIME, OTHER THAN TO CLEAN UP SOME ACCUMULATION TOTALS NORTHWEST. PREV AFD IS BELOW. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055- 060>062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ067>069. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ069>071. FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ070-071. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070- 071. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007- 008. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012- 013-015>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ014- 020>022-026-027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ023>025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-016>027. FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ012-013-015>019. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001- 002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ003. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004. FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ015- 019-020. FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008- 012. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 452>455. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ MPD ********************************************************************* .OVERVIEW... CAN`T STRESS ENOUGH THE SIGNIFICANCE OF MAKING SURE YOUR WEATHER ALERT RADIO IS WORKING PROPERLY AND YOU HAVE BATTERIES. SOME ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED OR CHANGED LATER TONIGHT WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE. FOR PARTS OF THE CWA, STORM REMINDS ME OF THE WINTER OF 93-94 WITH FREQUENT ICE/SNOWFALL EVENTS. WE`RE GONNA RUN THE GAMBIT FROM SNOW TO RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, FLOOD WATCH AND PSBLY A TSTM AND WIND BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FRIGHTENING WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROZEN GROUND. THE POTNL FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ICE IS GOING TO BE THE TOUGHEST CALL WITH THIS FORECAST. SNOW TOTAL WILL BE RAISED UP NORTH BECAUSE OF THOSE QPF AMNTS. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE A GOOD TIME TO BE TRAVELING ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY. ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS JUST ABOUT OVER, A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES BORDERING THE DELAWARE RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GROUND IS FROZEN SO THE RUNOFF WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT OF WHAT FALLS. && .SHORT TERM/ TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING THE INGREDIENTS FOR A VERY NASTY NIGHT ACROSS A WIDE AREA. THE LOW FINALLY TRANSFERS ENERGY TO THE COAST WITH HEIGHT FALLS 20 DAM BY 12Z WED AND 26 DAM BY 18Z . THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE (AROUND 2.0 INCHES). THE LATEST NAM HAS A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 1.22 INCHES. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS FAR AS THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR SNOW AND COMBINATION OF WINTRY WX...HAVE KEPT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREAS BUT TRIMMED BACK THE TIME FOR ENDING THEM ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE MIX WITH THE WARMER AIR RIDING OVER THE COLD GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA TO LONG BEACH ISLAND NJ BY 18Z AND CAPE COD BY 7 PM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ASIDE FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT CONTINUED COLD. && .AVIATION... CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CWA AND TERMINALS, A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS EXIST. VFR TO IFR CAN BE OBSERVED. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALL TERMINALS WILL FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THESE IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW AND LEAST AMOUNT OF MIX, WHILE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONES WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REFORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THE SECOND LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE DEPICTS A ONE-TWO PUNCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. FIRST A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A PERSISTENT AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. WE CURRENTLY TOP THINGS OUT AT 40 KT INTO THURSDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SOME STRONGER GUSTS. && TIDES... WE`VE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 400 AM THROUGH 100 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AND BACKBAYS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, THE DELAWARE BAY, THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, AND NEW JERSEY`S RARITAN BAYSHORE. TIDAL DEPARTURES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WHILE HIGH TIDES AT PHILADELPHIA WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK. && $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...EBERWINE LONG TERM...IOVINO MARINE/AVIATION...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
344 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007 ...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY EXTREME SE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT... ...POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER EVENT LATE THIS WEEK... && .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO PLACE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM EAST OF THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS...AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W TROUGH JUST DUE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE TO ITS EAST NORTHEAST ALOFT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND WHEREBY THE AXIS OF THE S/W IS BECOMING LESS NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ONE WOULD EXPECT UPR LVL DIV TO DECREASE WITH THAT IF THAT TREND CONTINUES. FOR THE TIME BEING HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION...EVEN STRONG CONVECTION LIKE IT IS HAPPENING ACROSS THE KEYS. HOWEVER...WHEN LOOKING AT THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ONE CAN SEE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 1000) WITH TEMP PROFILES THAT LOOK VERY CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS NOW FROM THIS POINT ON. GFS40 HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH NAM12...RUC...AND LOCAL WRF SOLUTIONS. THIS MEANS TROUGH...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE KEYS SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL MOVEMENT NORTH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCENARIO STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE TREND HAS NOT SHOWN A DEFINITE START. BUT AT LEAST GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION. ALBEIT WEAKER THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE S/W AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT TO SUPPORT TSTMS. HOWEVER...CAPE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER LIMITED AND IS BEST AS YOU WOULD EXPECT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IS BEST WHICH IS ALONG EXTREME SE COAST AND THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS. 88D TRENDS SHOWS PCPN SHIELD DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT YIELDING BEST CHC OF RAIN ALONG EXTREME SE COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF ANY STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM I THINK IS CONFINED AT THIS TIME TO THAT AREA TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILES AS BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH COULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. IN FACT...LOOKING AT THE W/V LOOP SEQUENCE I THINK THAT IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE FOR THE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY ALSO...ALBEIT REMOTE. SO HAVING SAID THAT...WILL FORECAST SHOWERS WITH A CHC OF TSTMS SE COAST AND THE ADJACENT WATERS WITH RAIN CHC OR LIKELY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS WHERE MOST PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STRATIFORM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THOSE AREAS TOO. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW. AS THE EVENING EVOLVES WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE HWO AS THREATS EVOLVE PARTICULARLY IF IT WHERE TO INCREASE BEYOND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. FOR TOMORROW...UPR LVL S/W CURRENTLY ACROSS NW GULF BEHIND PRIMARY ONE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY AND BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF BOTH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HOWEVER...BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF CWA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE SECONDARY UPR LVL S/W MOVES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW CHC OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC INDUCED RAIN POSSIBLE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A CANADIAN 1040 HIGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS FL. AT THIS TIME THICKNESS VALUES FOR THE 1000-850 MB LAYER LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NW INTERIOR PARTICULARLY WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH DROPPING ALL THE WAY OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS KIND OF FORECAST IS HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETTING IS THAT OF A POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER EVENT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAFS DURING THE EVENING CAUSING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AT TMB, MIA, AND FLL, BUT THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT PBI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT APF. VCSH/VCTS HAS BEEN LEFT IN ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE THE AREA WILL NOT LIKELY DRY OUT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... OTHER THAT SCEC WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT NO MAIN CONCERNS UNTIL MIDDLE TO LATE IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT AND SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 7 FEET OR HIGHER MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY STRONG. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH SUSTAINED PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY AFFECTING METRO MIAMI DADE AND PORTIONS OF BROWARD...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS AT THIS TIME. BUT NO MAJOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IF HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WERE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA ACROSS THE METRO AREAS...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 68 80 64 81 / 90 50 30 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 70 81 67 82 / 90 40 30 10 MIAMI 68 81 66 83 / 90 30 30 10 NAPLES 65 77 69 77 / 70 40 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...52/PS SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION AT 15Z ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK GOOD...DESPITE CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. NO UPDATES TO ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE PLANNED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007/ SHORT TERM (TODAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE HUDSON BAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 100-140KT JET FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A SECOND 100-140KT JET FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST PHASING WITH THE FIRST JET OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC (WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 170 KNOTS). A 140-160KT JET EXTENDED FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1028MB CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND A 1027MB ANTICYCLONE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST (SEPARATED BY A LEE TROUGH). SEVERAL WARM FRONTS WERE DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A 1008MB CYCLONE IN WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE STRENGTHENING PHASED JET ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM ADVECTION WILL SERVE TO THICKEN AND LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS. THERMAL STRUCTURE AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH. CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-285K SURFACES APPEARS TOO WEAK TO COUNTERACT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WITH +1C OF WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 800-950MB ALREADY BETWEEN THE 0440Z DESCENT KIAD ACARS SOUNDING AND THE 00Z KIAD RAOB...FORECAST HIGHS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IF ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. MEDIUM TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH IMPACT STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THIS WARMER SOLUTION...A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY OCCUR OVER OUR CWA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INITIALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ALLOWING FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY IN THE EVENING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENING WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER GFS AND NAM ISENTROPIC/OMEGA FIELDS. GIVEN THE PREFERRED GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES...BELIEVE P-TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN THIS AREA...GFS ALSO INDICATES WEAK H7-H5 VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAY RESULT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE COOLED BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...A NOSE OF WARM AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND WILL MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS TREND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TILTING NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS A S/SE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WONT MOVE MUCH ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING PER GFS (AND MET) MOS GUIDANCE. SREFS HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE BALDWIN ALGORITHM FAVORS MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...YET THE CZYS ALGORITHM INDICATES MOST OF OUR CWA WOULD BE AFFECTED BY FREEZING RAIN. CONCEPTUALLY...THE CZYS SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY...AND WHEN THE DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS COMBINED WITH MODEL QPF...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE COULD RESULT. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...WHERE BOTH ALGORITHMS AND OPERATIONAL GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TAKING ALL OF INTO ACCOUNT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT ACCENTUATE THE FACT THAT THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THIS STORM WILL HAVE PRIMARILY MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT. WOULD SURMISE THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO ISSUE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW HAS FORMED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL BEGIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. RIDGING LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE WEEKEND. THE MOST DIFFICULT PERIOD FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WAS THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SWITCH BACK OVER THE ALL SNOW EARLY...WHILE THE CENTRAL CWFA SWITCHES OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE BY MID MORNING...WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAY....WHILE ALL RAIN CONTINUES OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXPECT AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE WEATHER/POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND FOR PTYPE. IN ADDITION...HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ICE/SNOW ON THE GROUND. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE A FACTOR...AND HAVE INCREASED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE...DIDN`T REALLY DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE AND MADE NO CHANGES PAST THURSDAY. AVIATION... WARM ADVECTION STRATUS WHICH IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6KFT ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. TREND AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD BE A HALT TO SOUTHERN PROGRESS AND PROBABLY DISSIPATION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE DUE TO WARMING AND DIURNAL MIXING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BUILDING DOWN AND THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CONTINUED SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF SNOW (RAIN/SNOW NEAR KCHO) DEVELOPING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MARINE... 12Z MET/MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS 5KT OR LESS TODAY. WITH A COL IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY IS CLOSE TO 7-8 TENTHS. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE REGION. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS. HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON THE BAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS PROBABLY SAW THE MOST EDITING AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT GALES GUSTS ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. SINCE WINDS ARE TYPICALLY UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 35 KT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IS STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT FOR A HEADLINE...WILL ONLY HAVE MENTION IN THE SYNOPSIS. TIDES... CURRENT TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WANING TO A QUARTER MOON (32 PERCENT FULL). BOTH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND NOAA EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODELS HAVE MISSED THE OBSERVED POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY...ENCOURAGING TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE FURTHER. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWEST FOR THE MONTH...TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057. WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537. && $$ SHORT TERM...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
405 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE HUDSON BAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 100-140KT JET FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A SECOND 100-140KT JET FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST PHASING WITH THE FIRST JET OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC (WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 170 KNOTS). A 140-160KT JET EXTENDED FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1028MB CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND A 1027MB ANTICYCLONE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST (SEPARATED BY A LEE TROUGH). SEVERAL WARM FRONTS WERE DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A 1008MB CYCLONE IN WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE STRENGTHENING PHASED JET ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM ADVECTION WILL SERVE TO THICKEN AND LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS. THERMAL STRUCTURE AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH. CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-285K SURFACES APPEARS TOO WEAK TO COUNTERACT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WITH +1C OF WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 800-950MB ALREADY BETWEEN THE 0440Z DESCENT KIAD ACARS SOUNDING AND THE 00Z KIAD RAOB...FORECAST HIGHS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. IF ENOUGH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. && .MEDIUM TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH IMPACT STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH THIS WARMER SOLUTION...A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY OCCUR OVER OUR CWA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INITIALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ALLOWING FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY IN THE EVENING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENING WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER GFS AND NAM ISENTROPIC/OMEGA FIELDS. GIVEN THE PREFERRED GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES...BELIEVE P-TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN THIS AREA...GFS ALSO INDICATES WEAK H7-H5 VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW MAY RESULT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE COOLED BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...A NOSE OF WARM AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND WILL MAKE IT INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS TREND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TILTING NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS A S/SE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WONT MOVE MUCH ON TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING PER GFS (AND MET) MOS GUIDANCE. SREFS HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE BALDWIN ALGORITHM FAVORS MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN...YET THE CZYS ALGORITHM INDICATES MOST OF OUR CWA WOULD BE AFFECTED BY FREEZING RAIN. CONCEPTUALLY...THE CZYS SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY...AND WHEN THE DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS COMBINED WITH MODEL QPF...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE COULD RESULT. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...WHERE BOTH ALGORITHMS AND OPERATIONAL GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. TAKING ALL OF INTO ACCOUNT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT ACCENTUATE THE FACT THAT THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THIS STORM WILL HAVE PRIMARILY MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT. WOULD SURMISE THIS WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO ISSUE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... 500MB TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA AND MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW HAS FORMED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE SNOWS WILL BEGIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE UPSLOPE PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. RIDGING LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE WEEKEND. THE MOST DIFFICULT PERIOD FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WAS THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SWITCH BACK OVER THE ALL SNOW EARLY...WHILE THE CENTRAL CWFA SWITCHES OVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE BY MID MORNING...WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAY....WHILE ALL RAIN CONTINUES OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. EXPECT AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE WEATHER/POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND FOR PTYPE. IN ADDITION...HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ICE/SNOW ON THE GROUND. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE A FACTOR...AND HAVE INCREASED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. OTHERWISE...DIDN`T REALLY DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE AND MADE NO CHANGES PAST THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... WARM ADVECTION STRATUS WHICH IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY ANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6KFT ON THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. TREND AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD BE A HALT TO SOUTHERN PROGRESS AND PROBABLY DISSIPATION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE DUE TO WARMING AND DIURNAL MIXING. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BUILDING DOWN AND THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CONTINUED SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING...WITH AREAS OF SNOW (RAIN/SNOW NEAR KCHO) DEVELOPING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. && .MARINE... 12Z MET/MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS 5KT OR LESS TODAY. WITH A COL IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS. ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY IS CLOSE TO 7-8 TENTHS. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE REGION. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS. HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON THE BAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS PROBABLY SAW THE MOST EDITING AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT GALES GUSTS ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. SINCE WINDS ARE TYPICALLY UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 35 KT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. SINCE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IS STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT FOR A HEADLINE...WILL ONLY HAVE MENTION IN THE SYNOPSIS. && .TIDES... CURRENT TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WANING TO A QUARTER MOON (32 PERCENT FULL). BOTH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND NOAA EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODELS HAVE MISSED THE OBSERVED POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY...ENCOURAGING TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE FURTHER. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOWEST FOR THE MONTH...TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057. WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ050>055-501>504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TIDES...ROGOWSKI MEDIUM TERM...PELOQUIN LONG TERM...NWL MARINE...ROGOWSKI/NWL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
629 PM MST TUE FEB 13 2007 .UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION...215 PM MST TUE FEB 13 2007... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NM. THIS SEPARATES VERY COLD AIR OVER THE E PLAINS FROM MILD AIR TO THE WEST. LATEST WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH AXIS ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ AND NM WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. LATEST 400-200MB AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS A WEST TO EAST 140-160 KNOT JET OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW OVER SW NM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. 12Z MREF AND 15Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWING EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN AND INTERMODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL 500MB...SURFACE...AND PRECIP PATTERN WITH THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. SIDED WITH HPC ON THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SANDIA AND MANZANOS...SACRAMENTOS... AS WELL AS THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA. MODEL SOLNS INDICATE THAT THE VORTICITY AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500/700MB OPEN WAVES PUSH EAST WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET. NAM/GFS SHOWING LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8C/KM OVERNIGHT WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR -1C OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. EAST WINDS ACROSS THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THE CITY THIS EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL SATURATED EPV WILL COUPLE WITH MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE JEMEZ...SANDIA AND MANZANOS...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES OVERNIGHT. SINCE MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY FALL OVERNIGHT HAVE SIDED WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA. THINK MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE E CENTRAL PLAINS SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL A LITTLE HIGH THERE. GOING WITH ADVISORIES FOR THE GILA... LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE E PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO TEXAS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CHILLY TEMPS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL WORK INTO THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>013-016-017-026. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ014-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ018>021. && $$ 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ABOUT TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. COLD AIR HOLDING TOUGH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING AT KPHL RECENTLY. DECIDED TO RAISE ICE STORM WARNING FLAG...AS A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET APPEAR IMMINENT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIKELY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ067>071. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ069>071. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054- 055. NJ...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ008>010- 012-013-015>019. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-016>027. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-013-015>019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ007. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001. DE...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015- 019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... FOR KPHL, WE`VE KEPT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, PERHAPS TO 1000 OR 1500 FEET FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. VSBY VALUES SHOULD BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS PRECIP RATES VARY. THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT 06Z FOR KPHL, AS WELL AS FOR KILG, KPNE AND KTTN, IT TO KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT. THE MESSAGE FROM MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL NOT MIX OUT OF THOSE LOCATIONS. RECENT ACARS DATA INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 3500 FEET AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER KPHL AND VCNTY. QUITE A DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR TO ERODE WHILE FIGHTING A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND THAT IS REINFORCING THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. MORE OF A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED FOR KABE AND KRDG FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. MEANWHILE, KMIV AND KACY WILL BENEFIT FROM A LITTLE WARMING AND THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. BASED ON RADAR DATA AND GUIDANCE, WE`RE EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AT OUR EIGHT TAF SITES TO FALL MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062- 067>069. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ069>071. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070- 071. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054- 055. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ007>010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014- 020>022-026-027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-016>027. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-013-015>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012- 013-015>019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015- 019-020. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008- 012. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ AVIATION UPDATE...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND MEDIA SECTIONS.
NWS UPTON NY
915 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .MEDIA...ICE STORM WARNING BEING EXPANDED IN COASTAL CT. SEE NYCWSWOKX / WWUS41 KOKX COMING OUT SHORTLY. SEE NYCRR8OKX / SRUS81 KOKX FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. PUBLIC INFO STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS WE CATCH UP. .EQUIPMENT... ATTENTION ALL USERS...POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS ON THE NWS UPTON WEBPAGE ARE NOT UPDATING AT THIS TIME. OUR REGIONAL HQ HAS BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL BE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. THIS PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING NEIGHBORING WFOS INCLUDING BOX/ALY/BGM/PHI AT THIS TIME. USERS CAN FIND UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION BY CLICKING ON THE /LOCAL WEATHER/ LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE MAIN WFO UPTON HOMEPAGE...THEN SELECTING THE TEXT PRODUCT OF INTEREST. THE LATEST ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND BY SELECTING THE INDICATED LINK BELOW THE POINT AND CLICK MAP. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... MORE WARM AIR HAS WORKED IN ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH OKX 6Z SOUNDING SHOWING A 100MB LAYER UP TO 3C ABOVE FREEZING FROM 840 TO 740 MB...AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT PHI SHOWING A DEEP LAYER ABOVE 3000 FEET OF UP TO 5C. THAT AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT HAVE HAD TO SWITCH THE FOCUS TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL EASTERN CONNECTICUT...AND LIKELY TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE (INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK CITY). SUMMARY OF CHANGES AS FOLLOWS: HAVE ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NYC (MANHATTAN AND THE BRONX) AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION THERE TO SWITCH TO PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN (WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES) DURING THE MORNING RUSH...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING BACK OVER TO SNOW. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/2-3/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION THERE WITH 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET. RAIN COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY IN EARLY AFTERNOON IN NYC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MANHATTAN. CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR REMAINDER OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC) AND INTERIOR WESTERN CT...BUT REDUCED SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES (7-15 ORANGE COUNTY) WITH A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE. NW ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...WITH MORE ICE IN SE PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...FOR EASTERN CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY ZONES EXPECT 1-2 INCHES SNOW/SLEET AND UP TO .1 ICE AS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN THERE BY AROUND MIDDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LONG ISLAND (INCLUDING QUEENS AND BROOKLYN)...STATEN ISLAND...AND COASTAL WESTERN CT EXPECT THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE TO HANG IN LONGER (PER 3HR TEMP TRENDS IN ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS ONLY SHOWING LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE L-M20S ON LONG ISLAND...AND TEENS IN CT WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEENS TO AROUND 20...SHOWING COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. AS A RESULT EXPECT FROM 1/10-1/4 INCH OF ICE IN THAT GROUP BEFORE RAIN MIXES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BRIEF COMMENT ON THE MODELS...PREFER SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE AND QUICKER GFS OVER THE NAM (OUTLIER IN ITS SLOWNESS). GFS HAD GOOD SUPPORT FORM THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. NO MODEL HAS PROPERLY DIAGNOSED THE WARM AIR ALOFT...SO BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON SLEET VICE FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY MID EVENING. COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF UP TO 2 INCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD CROSS THE AREA...GIVING SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THIS. HAVE EXPANDED EXISTING WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL CT AND NYC. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 KT AT TIMES THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AROUND NYC...WHILE AREAS FURTHER EAST COULD EVEN SEE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE WIND ADV CRITERIA. EVEN GREATER RISK OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. BUFKIT AND OTHER MODEL DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 50 KT GUSTS...SO FEEL THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE RATHER THAN HIGH WIND WARNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOUGH. FOR TEMPERATURES OPTED FOR THE COLDEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS WHERE BLENDED THE TWO WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. THINGS THEN GET COLD QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH ANY LIQUID ON NON-TREATED ROADWAYS FREEZING...COULD MAKE THE END OF THE EVENING COMMUTE TREACHEROUS. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS N/W OF NYC METRO. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO IN COASTAL SECTIONS AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF COLDER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL AND FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM APPEARS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. LONG TERM SECTION FROM PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS: QUIET WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HELP WARM UP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAX ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE COLDER NORTHERN ZONES AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(UPDATED!) NOR`EASTER MOVING NORTHEAST LOCATED OF THE DELAWARE COAST WILL PASS OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL FRONT BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LONG ISLAND. NYC METRO AND KISP TAF WERE AMENDED. MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWEST EARLIER IN COLLABORATION WITH ZNY. FAA CC BRIEFED ON CHANGES. P-TYPE MAINLY FZRA IN NYC METRO THEN SN MIXES BACK WITH MORE PL THIS AFTERNOON. KJFK COULD GO TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A PERIOD AROUND 15-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THINKING IS KFRG GET TO RA...BUT NOT KJFK - CLOSE CALL. WIND SHEAR ADDED INITIALLY...BUT THIS LIFTS SOON. COMPRESSION PROBLEMS POSSIBLE. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG NW AT 20-30G35-40KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WIND IMPACTS AT KEWR. && .MARINE... COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 KT AT 08Z AT THE OCEAN BUOYS...AND EXPECT THE HARBOR AND SOUND TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS TRACK WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WHICH TAKES THE LOW JUST EAST OF MONTAUK POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KT LIKELY. COULD SEE AN OCNL/ISOLATED GUST TO 50 KT...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE TO BE COMMON AND WILL NOT POST STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AS THE LOW PASSES BY...WITH GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING. GUSTS OF 35-45 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURS MORNING. AGAIN COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 KT...BUT EXPECTING THESE TO BE ISOLATED. THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THURS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WRN SOUND AND HARBOR BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING OUT THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTS OF 35-40 KT WILL CONTINUE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE...WHILE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND. WW3 GUIDANCE REFLECTED THIS SCENARIO AND WAS FOLLOWED. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...A LONG ENE WILL PUSH WATER INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE HEIGHT AND TIMING OF THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HELPFUL FOR PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. ASTRO TIDES ARE QUITE LOW RIGHT NOW WITH THE RECENT FIRST QUARTER MOON. THUS WE WILL REQUIRE 2-3 FT DEPARTURES TO REACH MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS...AND 3 TO 4.5 FT TO REACH MODERATE. ALSO THE GREATEST DEPARTURES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY...WHICH IS AROUND THE TIME OF ASTRO LOW TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL JUST BE STARTING TO BUILD UP DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND IN NY HARBOR WED MORNING. THEREFORE AT THIS POINT LOOKING FOR ONLY ISOLATED/LOCAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS EVENT...WITH WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. WITH AIR TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND THURS...ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A CONCERN ON THE OCEAN AND IN LI SOUND. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOW WATER PROBLEMS ON THU. WEST WINDS REMAIN STRONG AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. MRPSSE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES DROPPING TO 2-3 FT BELOW NORMAL THU. WITH ALL OF THE OTHER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL NOT ISSUE LOW WATER ADVISORY YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO CONSIDER IT. && .HYDROLOGY... STILL LOOKING AT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FROZEN/FREEZING FORM...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND...MINOR URBAN/RURAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR...WITH AROUND 1/2 OF THE QPF BEING PLAIN RAIN ON TOP OF A COATING OF SNOW AND ICE...PROMOTING MAINLY A RUNOFF FLOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO OTHER THAN SLIGHT RISES CAUSED BY MELTING OF ANY FROZEN WATER EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT RIVERS TO SLOWLY FALL...EXCEPT FOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO AREAS OF ICE FORMATION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ007>012. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005- 006. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075>081. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>081. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>070. ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>073. NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002. ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ003>006- 011. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ AVIATION...TONGUE SHORT TERM...PFM LONG TERM...PFM MARINE...CJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .UPDATE... SURFACE LOW JUST OFF BUOY 44409 AND MOVING SLOWLY NNE HUGGING THE NJ COAST. BY 00Z LOW WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DELAWARMA AND MOST OF DELAWARE INTO EXTRME SNJ. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES UPPER 40S ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE TEENS NW OF PHL. WILL BE UPDATING SOME PUBLIC PRODUCTS AND CANCELLING SEVERAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. GOOD MIXTURE CONTINUES IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WINDS ON THE SRN DEL COAST AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, SO WE`LL BE SAYING GOODBY TO THE NEAR 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. .AVIATION UPDATE... WIDE AREA OF IFR ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A POCKET OF VFR WX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, SOME CLEARING MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PA BUT WITH A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION, SOME LOWER CLOUDS RETURN IF WE GET THE BREAK AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SHORTLY. && .MARINE...UPDATE MARINE SENT BUT ONLY TO END SOME PCPN THIS MORNING. && EBERWINE .AVIATION UPDATE /12Z-12Z/... THE 6:00 AM TEMP AT KPHL WAS 29 DEGREES, WHICH MIGHT BE THE HIGH FOR THE DAY THERE AS THE WIND CONTINUES TO BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. CONDITIONS REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM AT KMIV AND KACY, AND THEY SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT`S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT KPHL, KILG, KPNE AND KTTN WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. MEANWHILE, KABE AND KRDG SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 20S TODAY. WITH NOT MUCH AIR TRAFFIC INTO OR OUT OF KPHL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WE WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY RECENT ACARS DATA. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDIX, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COLD AIR REMAINS ABOUT 3000 FEET THICK OVER KPHL AND VCNTY. QUITE A DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR TO ERODE WHILE FIGHTING A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND THAT IS REINFORCING THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPS, AND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF WARM AIR ALOFT, THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE SNOW AND SLEET WITH A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT KRDG AND KABE, AND FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT KMIV AND KACY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AND SLEET AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FOR ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES. WE`VE KEPT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, PERHAPS TO 1000 OR 1500 FEET FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. VSBY VALUES SHOULD BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS PRECIP RATES VARY. BASED ON RADAR DATA AND GUIDANCE, WE`RE CONTINUING TO EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP THROUGH ABOUT 1500 UTC. THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO OVER TO SCATTERED UNTIL TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ UPDATE... UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS ISSUED TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN CANCELED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A 995 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY WITH THE LOW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANY THE LOW, SO A WEALTH OF WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION TODAY. AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND UP INTO NE NJ. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH AS A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF WARM AIR HAS ARRIVED ALOFT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS 1/2 OF INCH OF SLEET AS WELL. THIS WEATHER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TRAVEL, ONLY IF NECESSARY AND PLAN ON A MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL JOURNEY. IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT IN THESE AREAS. THE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TONIGHT, BUT BRISK WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO 0 TO -10 TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AREAS OF MD, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE LINGERED NEAR FREEZING. I EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THAT SHORTLY AS TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO THE SOUTH. THE ADVISORY IN OTHER AREAS WAS DROPPED EARLIER, AS THE EAST WIND OFF THE OCEAN HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE BRISK CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED, EXCEPT SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE MORNING ISSUANCE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MARINE... WE HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 3:00 AM, THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IT WILL ZIP TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE ON TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. THE STRONG FLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WILL CONTINUE TO NECESSITATE A GALE WARNING. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON ON THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ067>071. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054- 055. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062. NJ...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ008>010- 012-013-015>019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-013-015>019. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ007. DE...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...OHARA AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... QUITE THE STORM...XTNSV PNS LISTING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA RECENTLY ISSUED. THX TO ALL WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THIS PRODUCT. I`LL BE PULLING THE WINT STORM WRNG FOR ALL XCPT NERN MD...WL LV THAT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. 12Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS STRNG PRES GRAD TO OUR W WHICH WL BE MOVG INTO RGN THIS AFTN. STILL XPCTG GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY DO ADTNL DAMAGE. I`LL BE LOOKING AT NEED FOR SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCT FOR THE AFTN HRS. WOODY! && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ SHORT TERM (TODAY)... ..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE WINTER STORM IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH A SHORT WAVE TRAILING BEHIND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 100-140KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A 120-160KT WESTERLY JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1000MB PRIMARY CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECONDARY 1002MB CYCLONE HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORFOLK AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 06Z KIAD RAOB INDICATES COOLING LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO 0445Z KIAD ACARS SOUNDING. THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED FUNNELING OF COLD AIR FROM NEW ENGLAND AS PRESSURE FALLS OF 9MB IN 3HR ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA. OVERALL...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT ICING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS...WITH AN INCH AND A HALF OF ICE...AND DOWNED LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES. WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ENDING IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE SUNRISE...AND BALTIMORE DURING THE MID MORNING...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ADJUSTED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE. SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY TODAY. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE CURRENT COLD WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING MAY OCCUR INTO THE THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION SETS IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PRESSURE RISES OF 3-6MB PER 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE BEGINNING OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE SUGGESTS MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY AS 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED WIND GUSTS ONLY BARELY GETTING TO 40KT. EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS TO GO A FEW KNOTS BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE LEVEL OF SURFACE FRICTION. HOWEVER...ANY ICE BEARING TREES WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FALLING. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL REEVALUATE THE WIND ISSUE WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A MID LEVEL VORT LOBE SWINGING EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING NVA TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. NVA WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS...AND END ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE FAVORED WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. GFS 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST 40-50 KT...AND WITH COLD ADVECTION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO COME DOWN IN GUSTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES AOB -5 DEG F IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS MEETS WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SINCE THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE SECOND PERIOD AND SINCE WE HAVE OTHER WINTER HEADLINES ONGOING...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS W/NW WINDS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WHICH WOULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF EXHIBIT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CONTINUITY HIGHLIGHTING 20-30 POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY YET CONTINUED BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION... IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO WNW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT AT 2KFT WILL PRESENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL SURFACE WINDS SWING TO NORTHWEST. MARINE... 00Z MET/MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. PROXIMITY NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO A 40KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY IS CLOSE TO 7-9 TENTHS. GALE CRITERIA IN GUSTS WILL BE MET TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT CALIBER SPEEDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-018. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ005>007-010-011-014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>537. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>537. && $$ SHORT TERM...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 PM MST WED FEB 14 2007 CORRECTION TO REMOVE ZONES 8 AND 9 FROM WINTER STORM WARNING .DISCUSSION... 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A 1040MB HIGH PRES AREA BUILDING DOWN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE E PLAINS OF NM. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHEARED TROUGH AXIS OVER NM TRANSLATING EASTWARD AS A 150-170 KNOT JET SCREAMS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY 400-200MB AIRCRAFT WINDS. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. 12Z MREF/15Z SREF GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN ON THE TIMING OF THE EXITING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM/GFS INDICATING SNOWFALL WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS EVENING BUT LINGER OVER THE SANGRES...ESTANCIA VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF SNOW BLOSSOMING OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THIS EVENING AND PRESSING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOES INDEED SHOW CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. HPC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SANGRES AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. DECIDED TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU 4AM THURSDAY EXCEPT THE FAR NE CORNER. 12Z NAM CROSS SECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOWS DECENT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL VELOCITY ABOVE WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG IN VALLEY AREAS. BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE MAINLY CLOUDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 19 42 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 10 40 13 46 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 9 39 11 43 / 5 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 25 53 25 59 / 5 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 1 30 -2 38 / 20 20 20 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 10 34 15 42 / 20 0 0 5 RED RIVER....................... -1 24 -5 34 / 60 20 20 10 TAOS............................ 6 35 10 41 / 50 5 5 5 SANTA FE........................ 13 36 18 42 / 30 0 0 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 15 37 19 43 / 20 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 17 40 22 48 / 20 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 18 39 21 43 / 10 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 14 40 16 46 / 10 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 16 37 18 40 / 10 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 17 38 20 43 / 10 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 26 50 28 55 / 10 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 11 34 21 40 / 50 0 0 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 15 36 18 43 / 60 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 24 43 23 52 / 40 5 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 18 36 20 45 / 60 20 0 0 RATON........................... 6 33 11 49 / 40 5 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 7 35 16 46 / 60 0 0 5 ROY............................. 8 33 22 50 / 40 10 0 5 CLAYTON......................... 5 27 20 51 / 40 20 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 14 38 23 52 / 60 20 0 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 12 35 22 52 / 50 20 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 18 37 19 54 / 60 20 0 5 CLOVIS.......................... 16 37 23 53 / 60 20 0 0 PORTALES........................ 17 38 22 54 / 60 20 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 22 42 27 58 / 70 20 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002-003. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ004-005-010>013-016-017-026. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ018>021. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ014-015. && $$ GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1226 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... CLASSIC NOREASTER CONTS TO WIND UP OFF THE NJ CST. XPCT CONT PDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR CONDS ALL STATIONS THRU ABOUT 00Z. THIS WILL BE FLWD BY PDS OF LGTR SNOW THROUGH ABT 06Z WITH SOMEWHAT HIER CIGS AND VSBYS. MOST STATIONS WILL GO VFR BY 06Z AS THE LOW CONTS TO PULL NE. LES WILL BRING SCT SNOW SHWRS BACK INTO THE REGION...ESP NEAR THE END OF THE PD AS THE FLOW ALIGNS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON ACCUM AND STORM TOTALS. SFC LOW PRES CURRENTLY DEEPENING RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SE FA WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AS COASTAL DEEPENS AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N/NE. BEST BANDING SIGNATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH PARTS OF THE SUSQU REGION, NRN TIER OF PA AND INTO THE POCONOS. RRM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAJOR WINTER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE LOW WINDS UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA CAPES. MODEL GUIDANCE...OVERALL...IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM EVOLUTION...AS NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ULTIMATELY CLOSES OFF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY AFTERNOON OVER NJ OR SOUTHEAST PA. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM...AND WITH VERY STRONG FORCED ASCENT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO THE ABOVE REFERENCED SYSTEMS...WE DON`T HAVE A PROBLEM BUYING OFF ON MODEL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF 1.5-2.5" LIQUID BY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE EXCELLENT SIGNALS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. IN-HOUSE RESEARCH SUGGESTS THESE PARTICULAR PARAMETERS MATCH QUITE WELL WITH PAST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS MORNING IS THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...THAT HAS MADE IT UP INTO NY`S SOUTHERN TIER. THE RUC CAUGHT ONTO THIS POTENTIAL THE BEST...WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS DURING THE NIGHT AND SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWING THE ELEVATED WARY LAYER QUITE WELL. BUT EVEN THE RUC SUGGESTS ANY SLEET WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED OVER THE TWIN TIERS...AS COLDER AIR AND VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS...BUT WE ANTICIPATE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...AS WELL...BY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...AND OTHER THAN SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS...WE`RE CONTINUING TO RUN WITH THEM. FINAL AMOUNTS MAY YET ECLIPSE 2` FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S NORTHERN TIER...WITH SLIGHTLY "LOWER" TOTALS OF ABOUT 15" FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL CREATE MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS BY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WE THINK THAT BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MET. THUS...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WARNING TYPES AS THEY ARE. IN THIS SAME VEIN...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE`LL LET THE MAIN STORM GET OUT OF THE WAY FIRST...BEFORE WE ADD SUCH HEADLINES. BESIDES THE BITTER COLD...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT BY LATER THURSDAY...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER...WE`LL LET THE PRESENT STORM CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES. -MJ && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062. PA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-039. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040- 043-044-047-048-072. && $$ AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1144 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON ACCUM AND STORM TOTALS. SFC LOW PRES CURRENTLY DEEPENING RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SE FA WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AS COASTAL DEEPENS AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N/NE. BEST BANDING SIGNATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH PARTS OF THE SUSQU REGION, NRN TIER OF PA AND INTO THE POCONOS. RRM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAJOR WINTER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE LOW WINDS UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA CAPES. MODEL GUIDANCE...OVERALL...IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM EVOLUTION...AS NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ULTIMATELY CLOSES OFF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY AFTERNOON OVER NJ OR SOUTHEAST PA. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM...AND WITH VERY STRONG FORCED ASCENT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO THE ABOVE REFERENCED SYSTEMS...WE DON`T HAVE A PROBLEM BUYING OFF ON MODEL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF 1.5-2.5" LIQUID BY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE EXCELLENT SIGNALS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD. IN-HOUSE RESEARCH SUGGESTS THESE PARTICULAR PARAMETERS MATCH QUITE WELL WITH PAST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS ACROSS NY AND PA. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS MORNING IS THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...THAT HAS MADE IT UP INTO NY`S SOUTHERN TIER. THE RUC CAUGHT ONTO THIS POTENTIAL THE BEST...WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS DURING THE NIGHT AND SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWING THE ELEVATED WARY LAYER QUITE WELL. BUT EVEN THE RUC SUGGESTS ANY SLEET WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED OVER THE TWIN TIERS...AS COLDER AIR AND VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS...BUT WE ANTICIPATE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...AS WELL...BY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...AND OTHER THAN SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS...WE`RE CONTINUING TO RUN WITH THEM. FINAL AMOUNTS MAY YET ECLIPSE 2` FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S NORTHERN TIER...WITH SLIGHTLY "LOWER" TOTALS OF ABOUT 15" FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL CREATE MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS BY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WE THINK THAT BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MET. THUS...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WARNING TYPES AS THEY ARE. IN THIS SAME VEIN...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE`LL LET THE MAIN STORM GET OUT OF THE WAY FIRST...BEFORE WE ADD SUCH HEADLINES. BESIDES THE BITTER COLD...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT BY LATER THURSDAY...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER...WE`LL LET THE PRESENT STORM CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES. -MJ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/ AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7-10 KTS, AND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST TOMORROW TO AROUND 15 KTS. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO AVP THE LAST HOUR, AND THIS COULD SPREAD CLOSE TO BGM OVER NEXT 4 HOURS. -DJP PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... WINTER STORM MOVED IN A FEW HOURS LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT HAS ARRIVED NONETHELESS. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NRN PA AND OHIO AND HEADED FOR NY. DOMINANT SFC LOW PAST 12 HOURS HEADING INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT LOW OVER SC IS BEGINNING TO GET THE UPPER HAND. THIS LOW WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH THE NEXT 10-12 HRS AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN BY MORNING. EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE IMPACTED BY BANDING AND HEAVIEST SNOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE SWATH WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHEST TOTALS. FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED. AREA OF SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO NEPA AT THIS TIME. THUS FAR...HAVE SEEN 1-2 INCHES OVER NEPA AND ARND ONE INCH OVER SRN TIER. GENERALLY 0.5-1.00 INCH PER HOUR SINCE SNOW HAS STARTED. SLEET/FZRA LINE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AT PRESENT. BASED ON LATEST 00Z MODELS...THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL/ERN PA THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND UP INTO NEPA CTYS BY DAYBREAK. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST SLEET MAY MIX IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME EARLY MORNING FROM BROOME/SUSQUEHANNA CTY EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LAST APPROX 3 HRS BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS. SOME BANDING STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS SRN TIER/SUSQUEHANNA AREA AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE STORM FOR THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMS COMING RIGHT ARND THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO NOT PLAN ON MANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RE-ISSUED HEADLINES AND DROPPED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT OVER CNY TO THE 8-12 INCH RANGE. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL LEAVE THINGS ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ONCE IT INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST...MAY NEED TO EXTEND WARNING INTO EVENING HOURS. AVIATION /00Z-00Z/... SNOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE START OF SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY FALL LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW HOURS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED 15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HUGE STORM HEADING OUR WAY FOR TONIGHT INTO WED NGT. SNOW IN PA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS AGAINST THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO EVEN INTO PA. SNOW NOW TO ELZ SO WILL START MOVG INTO TWIN TIERS AND NE PA NEXT 3 HOURS THEN GET INTO NE CWA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. COUPLED NRN JET OVER SE CANADA AND SOUTHERN JET IN SE US WILL PROVIDE MUCH UL DIVERGENCE. SFC LOW IN KY WILL TRANSFER TO THE COAST AND SLOW. A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS ALONG COAST STARTING TO FORM. THE UL TROF AND LOW IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES BECOMES NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT DIGS SE TOWARDS BGM. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60 KTS AS THE LOW BOMBS ON THE COAST BRINGING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. FOR NOW GULF OPEN AT MID LEVELS BRINGING IN MORE MODELS. EACH MODEL RUN HAS PUT MORE QPF IN THE CWA AND NOW HAS A GOOD 2 INCHES. AT A CONSERVATIVE 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO THIS IS 20 INCHES. ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND LESS WARM AIR ALOFT AMOUNTS COULD GET CLOSE TO 3 FEET. ALSO ACROSS NY BANDING SIGNATURES AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND. IN THE FAR SE SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER WHICH WILL CAUSE SLEET THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTN. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON THE SNOW TOTALS SO...ONLY 10 TO 20 INCHES. THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS OUT LATE WED AFTN AND WED EVE. COULD BE SEVERAL MORE INCHES IN THE NE. ALSO WED AFTN AND NGT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO N THEN W AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. SNOW WILL BE DRIFTING WHILE WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING AROUND OUR EXTREME N COULD STAY IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO THU WHEN THE STORM WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY. ON THU THE LAKE EFFECT GETS GOING AGAIN AS 850 TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVG ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL BRING THE DYNAMICS FOR ANOTHER CHC OF HEAVY LES. FOR NOW NOT HITTING IT HARD. WILL ALSO WAIT ON LES WATCH UNTIL SYNOPTIC STORM CLEARS THE AREA. NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AGAIN IN THE BEST AREA FOR A SINGLE BAND. LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BEHIND COASTAL UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNTIL THE END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. OCCASIONAL H5 SHORT WAVES WILL REINFORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD AIR THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION AND RISING HEIGHTS BEGINS ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT NRN CWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FRIDAY NIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS T85 WARMS AND FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, INCLUDED CHC POPS ENTIRE FA AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA AND ANOTHER MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. -RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009- 015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062. PA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-039. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040- 043-044-047-048-072. && $$