AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND MEDIA SECTIONS.
NWS UPTON NY
915 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.MEDIA...ICE STORM WARNING BEING EXPANDED IN COASTAL CT. SEE
NYCWSWOKX / WWUS41 KOKX COMING OUT SHORTLY.
SEE NYCRR8OKX / SRUS81 KOKX FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. PUBLIC INFO
STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS WE CATCH UP.
.EQUIPMENT...
ATTENTION ALL USERS...POINT AND CLICK FORECASTS ON THE NWS UPTON
WEBPAGE ARE NOT UPDATING AT THIS TIME. OUR REGIONAL HQ HAS BEEN
NOTIFIED AND WILL BE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. THIS PROBLEM
APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING NEIGHBORING WFOS INCLUDING BOX/ALY/BGM/PHI
AT THIS TIME. USERS CAN FIND UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION BY CLICKING
ON THE /LOCAL WEATHER/ LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE MAIN WFO
UPTON HOMEPAGE...THEN SELECTING THE TEXT PRODUCT OF INTEREST. THE
LATEST ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND BY SELECTING THE INDICATED
LINK BELOW THE POINT AND CLICK MAP.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
MORE WARM AIR HAS WORKED IN ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH
OKX 6Z SOUNDING SHOWING A 100MB LAYER UP TO 3C ABOVE FREEZING
FROM 840 TO 740 MB...AND AMDAR SOUNDINGS AT PHI SHOWING A DEEP
LAYER ABOVE 3000 FEET OF UP TO 5C. THAT AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT HAVE HAD TO SWITCH THE FOCUS TO
FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT...AND HAVE CUT BACK
ON SNOW AMOUNTS AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL EASTERN
CONNECTICUT...AND LIKELY TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORE (INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK CITY).
SUMMARY OF CHANGES AS FOLLOWS:
HAVE ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NYC (MANHATTAN AND THE BRONX) AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION THERE TO SWITCH TO
PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN (WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES) DURING THE
MORNING RUSH...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK OVER TO SNOW. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/2-3/4 OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCRETION THERE WITH 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET. RAIN COULD MIX IN
BRIEFLY IN EARLY AFTERNOON IN NYC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANHATTAN.
CONTINUED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR REMAINDER OF LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC) AND INTERIOR
WESTERN CT...BUT REDUCED SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES
(7-15 ORANGE COUNTY) WITH A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE. NW ORANGE
COUNTY SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...WITH MORE ICE IN SE
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.
CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE...FOR EASTERN CT AND
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY ZONES EXPECT 1-2 INCHES SNOW/SLEET AND UP
TO .1 ICE AS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN THERE
BY AROUND MIDDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LONG ISLAND (INCLUDING
QUEENS AND BROOKLYN)...STATEN ISLAND...AND COASTAL WESTERN CT
EXPECT THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE TO HANG IN LONGER (PER 3HR TEMP
TRENDS IN ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ONLY SHOWING LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE L-M20S ON LONG ISLAND...AND TEENS IN CT WITH DEWPOINTS
FROM THE TEENS TO AROUND 20...SHOWING COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT EXPECT FROM 1/10-1/4 INCH OF ICE IN THAT GROUP BEFORE
RAIN MIXES IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF COMMENT ON THE MODELS...PREFER SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE AND
QUICKER GFS OVER THE NAM (OUTLIER IN ITS SLOWNESS). GFS HAD GOOD
SUPPORT FORM THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. NO MODEL HAS PROPERLY
DIAGNOSED THE WARM AIR ALOFT...SO BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WERE PUTTING TOO
MUCH EMPHASIS ON SLEET VICE FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS
COLD AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY MID
EVENING. COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF UP TO 2 INCHES DEPENDING ON
LOCATION...AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD CROSS THE AREA...GIVING
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THIS.
HAVE EXPANDED EXISTING WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
COASTAL CT AND NYC. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 KT AT TIMES THIS
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AROUND NYC...WHILE AREAS FURTHER EAST
COULD EVEN SEE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE WIND ADV CRITERIA. EVEN
GREATER RISK OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. BUFKIT AND OTHER MODEL DATA DOES NOT
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 50 KT GUSTS...SO FEEL THAT WIND ADVISORY WILL
SUFFICE RATHER THAN HIGH WIND WARNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THOUGH.
FOR TEMPERATURES OPTED FOR THE COLDEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS WHERE BLENDED THE TWO WARMER GUIDANCE
VALUES. THINGS THEN GET COLD QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH ANY LIQUID ON
NON-TREATED ROADWAYS FREEZING...COULD MAKE THE END OF THE EVENING
COMMUTE TREACHEROUS. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE
DIGITS N/W OF NYC METRO. GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND
ZERO IN COASTAL SECTIONS AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF COLDER GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL
BELOW NORMAL AND FREEZING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM APPEARS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. LONG TERM
SECTION FROM PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS:
QUIET WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HELP WARM UP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS MAX ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS
TO AROUND 20. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE COLDER NORTHERN ZONES AND A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(UPDATED!)
NOR`EASTER MOVING NORTHEAST LOCATED OF THE DELAWARE COAST WILL PASS
OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL FRONT BEING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
NYC METRO AND KISP TAF WERE AMENDED. MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
FORECAST BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWEST EARLIER IN COLLABORATION WITH
ZNY. FAA CC BRIEFED ON CHANGES.
P-TYPE MAINLY FZRA IN NYC METRO THEN SN MIXES BACK WITH MORE PL THIS
AFTERNOON. KJFK COULD GO TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A PERIOD AROUND
15-16Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THINKING IS KFRG GET TO RA...BUT
NOT KJFK - CLOSE CALL.
WIND SHEAR ADDED INITIALLY...BUT THIS LIFTS SOON. COMPRESSION
PROBLEMS POSSIBLE.
LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG NW AT 20-30G35-40KT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WIND IMPACTS AT KEWR.
&&
.MARINE...
COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE
NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 KT AT 08Z AT
THE OCEAN BUOYS...AND EXPECT THE HARBOR AND SOUND TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS TRACK
WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WHICH
TAKES THE LOW JUST EAST OF MONTAUK POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 KT LIKELY.
COULD SEE AN OCNL/ISOLATED GUST TO 50 KT...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE
TO BE COMMON AND WILL NOT POST STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AS THE LOW PASSES BY...WITH GALE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. GUSTS OF 35-45 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURS MORNING. AGAIN COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50
KT...BUT EXPECTING THESE TO BE ISOLATED. THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
ON THURS AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WRN SOUND AND HARBOR BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT
GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED THE
GALE WARNING OUT THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GUSTS OF 35-40 KT WILL
CONTINUE.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 10
TO 15 FT RANGE...WHILE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND. WW3
GUIDANCE REFLECTED THIS SCENARIO AND WAS FOLLOWED.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...A LONG ENE WILL PUSH WATER INTO
LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE HEIGHT AND TIMING OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HELPFUL FOR PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. ASTRO TIDES ARE QUITE LOW
RIGHT NOW WITH THE RECENT FIRST QUARTER MOON. THUS WE WILL REQUIRE
2-3 FT DEPARTURES TO REACH MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS...AND 3 TO 4.5
FT TO REACH MODERATE. ALSO THE GREATEST DEPARTURES WILL OCCUR DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY...WHICH IS AROUND THE
TIME OF ASTRO LOW TIDE. DEPARTURES WILL JUST BE STARTING TO BUILD UP
DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO
2 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND 1 TO 1
1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND IN NY
HARBOR WED MORNING. THEREFORE AT THIS POINT LOOKING FOR ONLY
ISOLATED/LOCAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS EVENT...WITH
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL.
WITH AIR TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND THURS...ALONG
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A
CONCERN ON THE OCEAN AND IN LI SOUND.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOW WATER PROBLEMS ON THU. WEST
WINDS REMAIN STRONG AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. MRPSSE GUIDANCE
SHOWS TIDES DROPPING TO 2-3 FT BELOW NORMAL THU. WITH ALL OF THE
OTHER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL NOT ISSUE LOW
WATER ADVISORY YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
CONSIDER IT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STILL LOOKING AT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
FROZEN/FREEZING FORM...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND...MINOR
URBAN/RURAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR...WITH AROUND 1/2 OF THE QPF
BEING PLAIN RAIN ON TOP OF A COATING OF SNOW AND ICE...PROMOTING
MAINLY A RUNOFF FLOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT QPF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SO OTHER THAN SLIGHT RISES CAUSED BY MELTING OF ANY
FROZEN WATER EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT RIVERS TO SLOWLY FALL...EXCEPT
FOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO AREAS OF ICE FORMATION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ007>012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
CTZ007>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005-
006.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ075>081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ071>081.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ067>070.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071>073.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NJZ006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ003>006-
011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
AVIATION...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
MARINE...CJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF BUOY 44409 AND MOVING SLOWLY NNE HUGGING THE NJ
COAST. BY 00Z LOW WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DELAWARMA AND MOST OF DELAWARE
INTO EXTRME SNJ. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES UPPER 40S ALONG
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE TEENS NW OF PHL. WILL BE UPDATING SOME PUBLIC
PRODUCTS AND CANCELLING SEVERAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. GOOD MIXTURE
CONTINUES IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. WINDS ON THE SRN DEL COAST AROUND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST, SO WE`LL BE SAYING GOODBY TO THE NEAR 50 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION UPDATE...
WIDE AREA OF IFR ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A POCKET OF VFR WX IN
NORTHERN VIRGINIA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, SOME
CLEARING MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PA BUT WITH A RETURN TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION, SOME LOWER CLOUDS RETURN IF WE GET THE BREAK AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK SHORTLY.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATE
MARINE SENT BUT ONLY TO END SOME PCPN THIS MORNING.
&&
EBERWINE
.AVIATION UPDATE /12Z-12Z/...
THE 6:00 AM TEMP AT KPHL WAS 29 DEGREES, WHICH MIGHT BE THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY THERE AS THE WIND CONTINUES TO BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. CONDITIONS REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM AT KMIV AND KACY,
AND THEY SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT`S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT KPHL, KILG, KPNE AND
KTTN WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. MEANWHILE, KABE AND KRDG SHOULD
NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 20S TODAY.
WITH NOT MUCH AIR TRAFFIC INTO OR OUT OF KPHL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, WE WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY RECENT ACARS DATA. HOWEVER,
LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDIX, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLD AIR REMAINS ABOUT 3000 FEET THICK OVER KPHL AND VCNTY. QUITE A
DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR TO ERODE WHILE FIGHTING A NORTHEAST SURFACE
WIND THAT IS REINFORCING THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.
AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPS, AND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
WARM AIR ALOFT, THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE SNOW AND SLEET WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT KRDG AND KABE, AND FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME
SLEET AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT
KMIV AND KACY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AND
SLEET AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FOR ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES.
WE`VE KEPT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, PERHAPS TO 1000 OR 1500 FEET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. VSBY
VALUES SHOULD BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS PRECIP RATES VARY.
BASED ON RADAR DATA AND GUIDANCE, WE`RE CONTINUING TO EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP THROUGH ABOUT 1500 UTC.
THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO OVER TO SCATTERED UNTIL
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 518 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS ISSUED TO DROP THE ADVISORY FOR MARYLANDS
EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
CANCELED.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 417 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A 995 MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY WITH THE LOW AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY ALONG THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANY THE LOW, SO A WEALTH OF WEATHER
PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY AND UP INTO NE NJ. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS NOT CHANGING
TOO MUCH AS A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH OF WARM AIR HAS ARRIVED ALOFT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS 1/2 OF INCH
OF SLEET AS WELL. THIS WEATHER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TRAVEL, ONLY IF NECESSARY AND PLAN
ON A MUCH LONGER THAN NORMAL JOURNEY.
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NJ, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FOOT IN THESE AREAS.
THE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TONIGHT, BUT BRISK WINDS MAY CAUSE
SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO 0 TO
-10 TONIGHT.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AREAS OF MD, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
LINGERED NEAR FREEZING. I EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THAT SHORTLY
AS TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TO THE SOUTH. THE
ADVISORY IN OTHER AREAS WAS DROPPED EARLIER, AS THE EAST WIND OFF
THE OCEAN HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH IT.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FLOWS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. THE BRISK CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED, EXCEPT SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE MORNING
ISSUANCE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...
WE HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3:00 AM, THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. IT WILL ZIP TO THE NORTHEAST, PASSING OVER OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE ON TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
EVENING.
THE STRONG FLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WILL
CONTINUE TO NECESSITATE A GALE WARNING. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING UNTIL NOON ON THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE
BAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERHAPS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ067>071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
055.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ008>010-
012-013-015>019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-013-015>019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ007.
DE...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ABOUT TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. COLD AIR HOLDING TOUGH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING AT KPHL
RECENTLY. DECIDED TO RAISE ICE STORM WARNING FLAG...AS A
SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET APPEAR IMMINENT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH LIKELY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ067>071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ069>071.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ070-071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ008>010-
012-013-015>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-016>027.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ012-013-015>019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR DEZ001.
MD...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
FOR KPHL, WE`VE KEPT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, PERHAPS TO
1000 OR 1500 FEET FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WIND BACKS
TO THE NORTHWEST. VSBY VALUES SHOULD BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR AT
LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS PRECIP RATES VARY.
THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT 06Z FOR KPHL, AS WELL AS
FOR KILG, KPNE AND KTTN, IT TO KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT. THE MESSAGE FROM MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL NOT MIX OUT OF THOSE LOCATIONS.
RECENT ACARS DATA INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 3500
FEET AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER KPHL AND VCNTY. QUITE A DEEP LAYER OF
COLD AIR TO ERODE WHILE FIGHTING A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND THAT IS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE.
MORE OF A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED FOR KABE AND KRDG FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT. MEANWHILE, KMIV AND KACY WILL BENEFIT FROM A
LITTLE WARMING AND THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH A
CHANGE TO SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAIL END OF THE
EVENT.
BASED ON RADAR DATA AND GUIDANCE, WE`RE EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP AT OUR EIGHT TAF SITES TO FALL MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ060>062-
067>069.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ069>071.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-
071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ007>010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-
020>022-026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-016>027.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ012-013-015>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-
013-015>019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR DEZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
019-020.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-
012.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
AVIATION UPDATE...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
640 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007
.AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST OF SBN
AND FWA AND WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE
MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THE CORE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND BORDERING AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
PER ACARS/TAMDAR OBS...NAM/WRF HAS INITIALIZED THE UPSTREAM CORE WELL
WITH 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -18C AND -19C...WHICH WAS EVEN COLDER
THAN THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHEN FWA...DFI AND GUS
DROPPED TO BETWEEN -8F AND -12F. SNOW DEPTHS STILL 8 INCHES TO
CLOSE TO 2 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 6...AND SUFFICIENT FOR EVEN RECORD COLD LOWS IF CONDITIONS
ARE RIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BETWEEN -20F AND -25F TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. NCEP GFS/MAV AND NGM/FWC MOS NOT HANDLING LOWS VERY
WELL...POSTING A LARGE WARM BIAS OF AS MUCH AS 17F. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CUT MOS TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUST BEGINNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPR LVL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA WILL
UNDERGO A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD POLAR
VORTEX LOCATED OVER SE CANADA AND PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THERE WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH IN THE
IMMEDIATE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN ITS WAKE.
PREFER THE 12Z GFS VERSUS THE NAM-WRF IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND WILL THUS USE CLOSELY. MID LVL S/WV WAS PUSHING
ONSHORE ACRS BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE
RAPIDLY SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN IT WILL HEAD
TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING A SWATH OF SNOW
TO THE REGION...BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT WITH THE
UPR LVL S/WV...AIDING IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THE MODIFIED
GARCIA METHOD AND MODEL QPF INDICATE THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS
THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE SE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NON DIURNAL AS WAA AND WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE SLOWLY TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING. THUS...WILL GO WITH AN EARLY EVENING LOW IN THE MID TEENS
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE S/WV WILL DIVE SE
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THE COLD AIR
MOVING ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CURRENT FORECAST FETCH OF 300 TO
320 IS EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT HIGH CHC POPS IN THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE EXTENDED
THE HIGH CHC INTO SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AS STATED BEFORE...A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN THE OFFING FOR NEXT WEEK.
S/WV ACTIVITY WILL COME ONSHORE ACRS THE WEST COAST...AND WILL TAKE
A SRN TRAJECTORY ACRS THE SRN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...SOME S/WV
ENERGY IN THE NRN JET STREAM (A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN) WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY...OSCILLATING ITS
POSITION FROM RUN TO RUN. THE PATTERN THIS WINTER HAS BEEN TO TAKE
THESE SRN STREAM S/WVS END FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...SO WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS ONE PANS
OUT. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL JUST FOCUS ON THE NRN STREAM S/WV AND
ASSOCD COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE WILL BE A
CONCERN AS TEMPS WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL
GO WITH A CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW ON TUESDAY...WITH A CHC OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST SETTLE ACRS THE FCST REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL FCST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR INZ008-009-012>018-020-
022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIPPER
LONG TERM....HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1000 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007
.UPDATE...
MID/UPR LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING SEWD
INTO NRN AR ATTM...PUSHING SCT MID/HI LEVEL CLDS PRIMARILY OVER
DOWNSTATE KY. ACRS THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA...EXPECT JUST SOME CI
OVRNGT...SO MOCLR N TO PCLDY SKIES S WILL PREVAIL. NAM HAS BACKED
OFF LO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IT WAS SHOWING WITH THE 18Z RUN...AS
INDICATED BY ITS FCST 00Z SOUNDINGS.
DID NOT CHG TEMPS MUCH OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAVE WIND CHILLS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO WITH THE COMBO OF TEMPS/WINDS NOT QUITE AS
COLD PER WIND CHILLS AS PRVS FCST...AROUND -5 FAR N AND +5 FAR
S...BOTTOMING OUT ARND 10Z.
DK
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. RADAR
SHOWING SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD FLURRY OR -SHSN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM
ROUGHLY HOP-SDF-CVG AS OF 18Z. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP ON LATEST
ACARS SOUNDINGS AT SDF (THROUGH THE -15C LEVEL)...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY. BEST CHANCES FOR -SHSN WILL BE ALONG RELATIVE MAX IN SFC
DEWPOINTS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM WRN KY UP INTO THE
SDF-CVG CORRIDOR. GFS LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS PICK UP ON THIS ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AT THE 900/925MB LEVELS...AND TRANSLATE FEATURE SE INTO
OUR ERN COUNTIES BY 22-00Z THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WILL INCLUDE A "LATE AFTERNOON" PERIOD IN THE ZONES FOR
ISLTD -SHSN. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS OTHER THAN TRACE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL PRESENT A CHALLENGE...WITH NAM DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WHILE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER IN THE LOW
LEVELS. FEEL THAT NAM IS OVERDEVELOPING LOW STRATUS THIS AFTN OVER
THE SNOW FIELDS NORTH OF THE CWA...WHICH IS SEEN IN THE 6-9HR
VERIFICATIONS OF THE 12Z RUN...SO WILL SIDE WITH GFS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST 30% CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH BANDS OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD OVER
THE N 1/3 OF THE DISTRICT...MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10F RANGE BY DAYBREAK...SO WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HAZ WX OUTLOOK SINCE IT IS BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OVER SRN KY...WCI VALUES SHOULD BE WARMER (~ZERO TO 5
ABOVE).
SIG WX NIL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD LATE AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLIPPER. SIGNIFICANT THERMAL TROF REMAINS OVER THE CWA...AND EVEN
WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
CS
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
...CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEEKENDS CLIPPER SYSTEM. 12Z NAM-WRF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH AS THE SFC LOW GETS
HERE...IT WILL BE WEAKENING. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE NAM TAKING THE LOW NORTH OF
THE RIVER WITH THE GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TIMING IS
FASTER THAN THE NAM WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND OVERALL PROFILES
SUGGEST SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE WHAT WILL BE THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. SO FAR THIS SEASON...THE NAM HAS OUTPERFORMED THE GFS
SOLUTION HANDS DOWN. THE QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN MORE REALISTIC AS
WELL AS THE THERMAL PROFILES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TENDED TO BE COLDER
AND MORE WET IN TERMS OF QPF. AT THIS TIME...I THINK THE BEST
APPROACH WOULD BE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS BUT CLOSER TO
THE NAM SOLUTION. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES AND WITH EXPECTED WARMTH IN THE PBL DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO WHICH IS 12:1.
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS 2-4 INCHES. FOR NOW WILL PLAN ON A GENERAL 1-3...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE 1-2 INCHES. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER
NORTH...LESS SNOW IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL START OFF
COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. STUCK
CLOSER THE THE 2M GFS NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32.
AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FA. FOR THAT REASON HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW COVER. SINCE WE FEEL WE`LL
HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND...LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH MID TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY ALLOWING DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. COMBINATION OF DEEP SW
FLOW COMING OFF THE GULF SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY. INITIAL PRECIP MAY BE MIXED OR SNOW...BUT
WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPS WARM. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.
LATEST 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SFC CYCLONE GOING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE 06Z
GFS RUN. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GENERALLY
PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGE FOR THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLE PACKAGE IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW GOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NET RESULT IS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
THU. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP ON WED WILL BE RAIN AS OVERALL
ARCTIC PATTERN LOOSES ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
-MJ
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)...
VFR THRU THE PD. LIGHT NLY FLO WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLO
FRI AS A RIDGE OF HI PRES MOVES ACRS OUR FA TNGT AND EARLY FRI. BY
LATE IN THE PD...RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ACRS FAR EKY RESULTING IN
A SW RETURN FLO. CIGS ARND 040 IN THE LEX VCNTY WILL BECOME SCT BY
03Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
625 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)...
VFR THRU THE PD. LIGHT NLY FLO WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLO
FRI AS A RIDGE OF HI PRES MOVES ACRS OUR FA TNGT AND EARLY FRI. BY
LATE IN THE PD...RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ACRS FAR EKY RESULTING IN
A SW RETURN FLO. CIGS ARND 040 IN THE LEX VCNTY WILL BECOME SCT BY
03Z.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. RADAR
SHOWING SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD FLURRY OR -SHSN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM
ROUGHLY HOP-SDF-CVG AS OF 18Z. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP ON LATEST
ACARS SOUNDINGS AT SDF (THROUGH THE -15C LEVEL)...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY. BEST CHANCES FOR -SHSN WILL BE ALONG RELATIVE MAX IN SFC
DEWPOINTS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM WRN KY UP INTO THE
SDF-CVG CORRIDOR. GFS LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS PICK UP ON THIS ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AT THE 900/925MB LEVELS...AND TRANSLATE FEATURE SE INTO
OUR ERN COUNTIES BY 22-00Z THIS EVENING...AND OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WILL INCLUDE A "LATE AFTERNOON" PERIOD IN THE ZONES FOR
ISLTD -SHSN. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS OTHER THAN TRACE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL PRESENT A CHALLENGE...WITH NAM DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WHILE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER IN THE LOW
LEVELS. FEEL THAT NAM IS OVERDEVELOPING LOW STRATUS THIS AFTN OVER
THE SNOW FIELDS NORTH OF THE CWA...WHICH IS SEEN IN THE 6-9HR
VERIFICATIONS OF THE 12Z RUN...SO WILL SIDE WITH GFS. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST 30% CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH BANDS OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD OVER
THE N 1/3 OF THE DISTRICT...MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10F RANGE BY DAYBREAK...SO WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN HAZ WX OUTLOOK SINCE IT IS BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OVER SRN KY...WCI VALUES SHOULD BE WARMER (~ZERO TO 5
ABOVE).
SIG WX NIL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD LATE AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLIPPER. SIGNIFICANT THERMAL TROF REMAINS OVER THE CWA...AND EVEN
WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
CS
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
...CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS WEEKENDS CLIPPER SYSTEM. 12Z NAM-WRF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH AS THE SFC LOW GETS
HERE...IT WILL BE WEAKENING. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE NAM TAKING THE LOW NORTH OF
THE RIVER WITH THE GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS TIMING IS
FASTER THAN THE NAM WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND OVERALL PROFILES
SUGGEST SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE WHAT WILL BE THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. SO FAR THIS SEASON...THE NAM HAS OUTPERFORMED THE GFS
SOLUTION HANDS DOWN. THE QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN MORE REALISTIC AS
WELL AS THE THERMAL PROFILES. THE GFS HAS ALSO TENDED TO BE COLDER
AND MORE WET IN TERMS OF QPF. AT THIS TIME...I THINK THE BEST
APPROACH WOULD BE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS BUT CLOSER TO
THE NAM SOLUTION. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES AND WITH EXPECTED WARMTH IN THE PBL DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO WHICH IS 12:1.
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS 2-4 INCHES. FOR NOW WILL PLAN ON A GENERAL 1-3...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE 1-2 INCHES. IF THE SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER
NORTH...LESS SNOW IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL START OFF
COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. STUCK
CLOSER THE THE 2M GFS NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 32.
AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FA. FOR THAT REASON HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST HERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW COVER. SINCE WE FEEL WE`LL
HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND...LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH MID TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY ALLOWING DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. COMBINATION OF DEEP SW
FLOW COMING OFF THE GULF SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY. INITIAL PRECIP MAY BE MIXED OR SNOW...BUT
WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPS WARM. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.
LATEST 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SFC CYCLONE GOING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE 06Z
GFS RUN. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GENERALLY
PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGE FOR THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLE PACKAGE IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW GOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NET RESULT IS A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
THU. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST PRECIP ON WED WILL BE RAIN AS OVERALL
ARCTIC PATTERN LOOSES ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
-MJ
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
QUITE THE STORM...XTNSV PNS LISTING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA RECENTLY ISSUED.
THX TO ALL WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THIS PRODUCT.
I`LL BE PULLING THE WINT STORM WRNG FOR ALL XCPT NERN MD...WL LV
THAT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
12Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS STRNG PRES GRAD TO OUR W WHICH WL BE MOVG INTO
RGN THIS AFTN. STILL XPCTG GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY DO ADTNL DAMAGE.
I`LL BE LOOKING AT NEED FOR SOME SORT OF WIND PRODUCT FOR THE AFTN
HRS.
WOODY!
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE WINTER
STORM IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WITH A SHORT WAVE TRAILING BEHIND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 100-140KT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A 120-160KT
WESTERLY JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1000MB PRIMARY CYCLONE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SECONDARY 1002MB CYCLONE HAD
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORFOLK AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN OCCURRING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
06Z KIAD RAOB INDICATES COOLING LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO 0445Z KIAD
ACARS SOUNDING. THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED FUNNELING OF COLD AIR FROM
NEW ENGLAND AS PRESSURE FALLS OF 9MB IN 3HR ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN VIRGINIA. OVERALL...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MORE SLEET THAN
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT ICING
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS...WITH AN INCH
AND A HALF OF ICE...AND DOWNED LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES. WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION ENDING IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND BALTIMORE DURING THE MID MORNING...THE WINTER STORM
WARNING WAS ADJUSTED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.
WHILE THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE. SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY TODAY. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE
CURRENT COLD WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS
THAT MIXING MAY OCCUR INTO THE THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...BEFORE
COLD ADVECTION SETS IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE.
PRESSURE RISES OF 3-6MB PER 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH
THE BEGINNING OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE
SUGGESTS MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. HELD OFF ON A
WIND ADVISORY AS 00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED
WIND GUSTS ONLY BARELY GETTING TO 40KT. EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS TO GO A
FEW KNOTS BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE LEVEL OF SURFACE FRICTION.
HOWEVER...ANY ICE BEARING TREES WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
FALLING. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL REEVALUATE THE WIND ISSUE WITH THE
EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A MID LEVEL VORT LOBE
SWINGING EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING NVA TO BUILD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. NVA WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS...AND END ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE FAVORED WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. GFS 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST 40-50 KT...AND
WITH COLD ADVECTION...A FAIR AMOUNT OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO COME
DOWN IN GUSTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES AOB -5 DEG F IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THIS MEETS WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SINCE THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE SECOND PERIOD AND SINCE WE HAVE OTHER WINTER HEADLINES
ONGOING...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ATTM.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...AS W/NW WINDS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WHICH WOULD OCCUR IN THE FORM
OF SNOW...IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF EXHIBIT SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CONTINUITY HIGHLIGHTING
20-30 POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY YET CONTINUED BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS OCCURRING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD ADVECTION.
THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO WNW AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH GUSTS OF 35KTS EXPECTED.
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT AT 2KFT WILL PRESENT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR UNTIL SURFACE WINDS SWING TO NORTHWEST.
MARINE...
00Z MET/MAV MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. PROXIMITY NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO A 40KT WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY IS CLOSE TO 7-9 TENTHS.
GALE CRITERIA IN GUSTS WILL BE MET TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT
CALIBER SPEEDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ017-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ005>007-010-011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ530>537.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
900 PM MST THU FEB 15 2007
.UPDATE...
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TO ZNS 19 AND 26 BUT
DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH IN ANY ONE AREA
TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ADJUSTED WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MST THU FEB 15 2007
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LAST VESTIGES OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA. A DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. 400-250MB
AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS A 90-110 KNOT JET OVER UTAH TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO CALIFORNIA.
ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY. 12Z NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT LAS VEGAS
INDICATES ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AS THE 90-110 KNOT OVER UTAH TRANSLATES TO THE
EAST OF NEW MEXICO. NOT THINKING WINDS WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD
WITH PROFILES INDICATING A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION CLOSE NEAR THE
SURFACE...INHIBITING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...THIS
BEARS WATCHING AS 12Z METMOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL HOURS OF 25-35
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT CLINES CORNERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY SNOW COVER PRESENT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BEYOND FRIDAY...12Z MREF/15Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
CRESTING OVER NEW MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 12Z GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA WILL
TRANSLATE ENERGY NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AND SHEAR
APART AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE SUNDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND UPPER GILA REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY SHEARS NORTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO
AND HELPS SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO
THE STATE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 20 52 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 14 51 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 53 17 53 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... -1 40 4 41 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 15 46 16 45 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... -3 37 8 37 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 6 44 9 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 12 47 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 12 48 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 50 20 50 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 53 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 19 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 58 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 15 45 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 4 47 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 23 56 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 20 49 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 12 52 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 15 50 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 53 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 15 51 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 20 57 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 17 54 27 54 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 20 59 29 57 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 18 58 29 54 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 16 60 27 55 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 23 62 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 PM MST WED FEB 14 2007
CORRECTION TO REMOVE ZONES 8 AND 9 FROM WINTER STORM WARNING
.DISCUSSION...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH TO
NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A 1040MB HIGH PRES AREA
BUILDING DOWN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE E PLAINS OF NM.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHEARED TROUGH
AXIS OVER NM TRANSLATING EASTWARD AS A 150-170 KNOT JET SCREAMS
EASTWARD INTO TEXAS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY
400-200MB AIRCRAFT WINDS. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE.
12Z MREF/15Z SREF GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT
PATTERN ON THE TIMING OF THE EXITING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM/GFS INDICATING SNOWFALL WILL EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS EVENING BUT
LINGER OVER THE SANGRES...ESTANCIA VALLEY...AND ESPECIALLY THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF SNOW BLOSSOMING OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS THIS EVENING AND PRESSING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
DOES INDEED SHOW CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
HPC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE E PLAINS
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SANGRES AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. DECIDED TO
EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU 4AM THURSDAY EXCEPT
THE FAR NE CORNER. 12Z NAM CROSS SECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
SHOWS DECENT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL VELOCITY ABOVE WEAK LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS WITH VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG IN VALLEY
AREAS. BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW CONUS. ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TRIES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY...BUT
THIS MAY BE MAINLY CLOUDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 19 42 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 10 40 13 46 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 9 39 11 43 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 53 25 59 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 1 30 -2 38 / 20 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 10 34 15 42 / 20 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... -1 24 -5 34 / 60 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 6 35 10 41 / 50 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 13 36 18 42 / 30 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 15 37 19 43 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 40 22 48 / 20 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 18 39 21 43 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 14 40 16 46 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 16 37 18 40 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 17 38 20 43 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 50 28 55 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 11 34 21 40 / 50 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 15 36 18 43 / 60 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 24 43 23 52 / 40 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 18 36 20 45 / 60 20 0 0
RATON........................... 6 33 11 49 / 40 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 7 35 16 46 / 60 0 0 5
ROY............................. 8 33 22 50 / 40 10 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 5 27 20 51 / 40 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 14 38 23 52 / 60 20 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 12 35 22 52 / 50 20 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 18 37 19 54 / 60 20 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 16 37 23 53 / 60 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 17 38 22 54 / 60 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 22 42 27 58 / 70 20 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004-005-010>013-016-017-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ018>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ014-015.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1226 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
CLASSIC NOREASTER CONTS TO WIND UP OFF THE NJ CST. XPCT CONT PDS
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR CONDS ALL STATIONS THRU ABOUT 00Z. THIS
WILL BE FLWD BY PDS OF LGTR SNOW THROUGH ABT 06Z WITH SOMEWHAT
HIER CIGS AND VSBYS. MOST STATIONS WILL GO VFR BY 06Z AS THE LOW
CONTS TO PULL NE. LES WILL BRING SCT SNOW SHWRS BACK INTO THE
REGION...ESP NEAR THE END OF THE PD AS THE FLOW ALIGNS. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON ACCUM AND STORM TOTALS. SFC LOW PRES CURRENTLY DEEPENING
RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SE
FA WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AS COASTAL DEEPENS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N/NE. BEST BANDING SIGNATURES EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
PARTS OF THE SUSQU REGION, NRN TIER OF PA AND INTO THE POCONOS.
RRM
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR WINTER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
SURFACE LOW WINDS UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA CAPES. MODEL
GUIDANCE...OVERALL...IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM
EVOLUTION...AS NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ULTIMATELY CLOSES OFF A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY AFTERNOON OVER NJ OR SOUTHEAST PA. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AS IT HEADS UP THE
COAST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM...AND WITH VERY STRONG FORCED ASCENT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO
THE ABOVE REFERENCED SYSTEMS...WE DON`T HAVE A PROBLEM BUYING OFF ON
MODEL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF 1.5-2.5" LIQUID BY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE EXCELLENT SIGNALS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.
IN-HOUSE RESEARCH SUGGESTS THESE PARTICULAR PARAMETERS MATCH QUITE
WELL WITH PAST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS ACROSS NY AND PA.
THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS MORNING IS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION...THAT HAS MADE IT UP INTO NY`S SOUTHERN TIER. THE RUC
CAUGHT ONTO THIS POTENTIAL THE BEST...WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS DURING
THE NIGHT AND SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWING THE
ELEVATED WARY LAYER QUITE WELL. BUT EVEN THE RUC SUGGESTS ANY SLEET
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED OVER THE TWIN TIERS...AS COLDER AIR AND
VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND THE POCONOS...BUT WE ANTICIPATE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THESE AREAS...AS WELL...BY AFTERNOON.
ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK PRETTY
GOOD...AND OTHER THAN SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS...WE`RE
CONTINUING TO RUN WITH THEM. FINAL AMOUNTS MAY YET ECLIPSE 2` FOR
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S NORTHERN TIER...WITH SLIGHTLY
"LOWER" TOTALS OF ABOUT 15" FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL CREATE MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS BY
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WE THINK THAT BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL
GENERALLY NOT BE MET. THUS...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WARNING TYPES AS THEY ARE. IN THIS
SAME VEIN...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE`LL LET THE MAIN STORM GET OUT OF THE
WAY FIRST...BEFORE WE ADD SUCH HEADLINES.
BESIDES THE BITTER COLD...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT BY LATER THURSDAY...LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER...WE`LL LET THE PRESENT STORM CLEAR THE AREA
BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES. -MJ
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
PA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
043-044-047-048-072.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1144 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTERNOON ACCUM AND STORM TOTALS. SFC LOW PRES CURRENTLY DEEPENING
RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. MIXED PRECIP ACROSS SE
FA WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AS COASTAL DEEPENS AND
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N/NE. BEST BANDING SIGNATURES EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
PARTS OF THE SUSQU REGION, NRN TIER OF PA AND INTO THE POCONOS.
RRM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR WINTER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS
SURFACE LOW WINDS UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA CAPES. MODEL
GUIDANCE...OVERALL...IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM
EVOLUTION...AS NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ULTIMATELY CLOSES OFF A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY AFTERNOON OVER NJ OR SOUTHEAST PA. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AS IT HEADS UP THE
COAST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
UPSTREAM...AND WITH VERY STRONG FORCED ASCENT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO
THE ABOVE REFERENCED SYSTEMS...WE DON`T HAVE A PROBLEM BUYING OFF ON
MODEL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF 1.5-2.5" LIQUID BY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE EXCELLENT SIGNALS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD.
IN-HOUSE RESEARCH SUGGESTS THESE PARTICULAR PARAMETERS MATCH QUITE
WELL WITH PAST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS ACROSS NY AND PA.
THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS MORNING IS THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION...THAT HAS MADE IT UP INTO NY`S SOUTHERN TIER. THE RUC
CAUGHT ONTO THIS POTENTIAL THE BEST...WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS DURING
THE NIGHT AND SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWING THE
ELEVATED WARY LAYER QUITE WELL. BUT EVEN THE RUC SUGGESTS ANY SLEET
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED OVER THE TWIN TIERS...AS COLDER AIR AND
VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING. SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND THE POCONOS...BUT WE ANTICIPATE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW FOR
THESE AREAS...AS WELL...BY AFTERNOON.
ALL IN ALL...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED STORM TOTALS STILL LOOK PRETTY
GOOD...AND OTHER THAN SOME RELATIVELY MINOR TWEAKS...WE`RE
CONTINUING TO RUN WITH THEM. FINAL AMOUNTS MAY YET ECLIPSE 2` FOR
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL NY AND PA`S NORTHERN TIER...WITH SLIGHTLY
"LOWER" TOTALS OF ABOUT 15" FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL CREATE MUCH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS BY
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WE THINK THAT BLIZZARD CRITERIA WILL
GENERALLY NOT BE MET. THUS...WE THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WARNING TYPES AS THEY ARE. IN THIS
SAME VEIN...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE`LL LET THE MAIN STORM GET OUT OF THE
WAY FIRST...BEFORE WE ADD SUCH HEADLINES.
BESIDES THE BITTER COLD...THE OTHER CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT BY LATER THURSDAY...LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
ONCE AGAIN...HOWEVER...WE`LL LET THE PRESENT STORM CLEAR THE AREA
BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES. -MJ
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007/
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7-10 KTS, AND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TOMORROW TO AROUND 15 KTS.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO AVP THE LAST
HOUR, AND THIS COULD SPREAD CLOSE TO BGM OVER NEXT 4 HOURS.
-DJP
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 924 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
WINTER STORM MOVED IN A FEW HOURS LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT HAS
ARRIVED NONETHELESS. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NRN
PA AND OHIO AND HEADED FOR NY. DOMINANT SFC LOW PAST 12 HOURS
HEADING INTO THE OH VALLEY...BUT LOW OVER SC IS BEGINNING TO GET
THE UPPER HAND. THIS LOW WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH THE NEXT 10-12
HRS AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND BEGINS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN BY
MORNING. EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE MOST LIKELY
AREA TO BE IMPACTED BY BANDING AND HEAVIEST SNOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE
SWATH WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE
HIGHEST TOTALS.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED. AREA
OF SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW MOVING INTO NEPA AT THIS TIME. THUS FAR...HAVE SEEN 1-2
INCHES OVER NEPA AND ARND ONE INCH OVER SRN TIER. GENERALLY
0.5-1.00 INCH PER HOUR SINCE SNOW HAS STARTED. SLEET/FZRA LINE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AT PRESENT. BASED ON LATEST 00Z
MODELS...THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL/ERN PA THRU THE
OVERNIGHT AND UP INTO NEPA CTYS BY DAYBREAK.
LATEST RUNS SUGGEST SLEET MAY MIX IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
EARLY MORNING FROM BROOME/SUSQUEHANNA CTY EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
LAST APPROX 3 HRS BEFORE COLD AIR RETURNS. SOME BANDING STILL
LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS SRN TIER/SUSQUEHANNA AREA AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BE THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE STORM FOR
THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMS COMING RIGHT ARND THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
ALL IN ALL...CURRENT FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO NOT PLAN ON
MANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HAVE RE-ISSUED HEADLINES AND DROPPED
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT OVER CNY TO THE 8-12 INCH RANGE. OTHER
THAN THAT...WILL LEAVE THINGS ON TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ONCE IT INTENSIFIES OFF THE
COAST...MAY NEED TO EXTEND WARNING INTO EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z-00Z/...
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS MAJOR WINTER
STORM IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE START OF SNOW. WIDESPREAD
IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MAY FALL LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW HOURS OF VLIFR ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 405 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HUGE STORM HEADING OUR WAY FOR TONIGHT INTO WED NGT. SNOW IN PA
HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS AGAINST THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. DEWPOINTS
BELOW ZERO EVEN INTO PA. SNOW NOW TO ELZ SO WILL START MOVG INTO
TWIN TIERS AND NE PA NEXT 3 HOURS THEN GET INTO NE CWA TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT.
DYNAMICS ARE ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF LIFT
AND MOISTURE. COUPLED NRN JET OVER SE CANADA AND SOUTHERN JET IN
SE US WILL PROVIDE MUCH UL DIVERGENCE. SFC LOW IN KY WILL TRANSFER
TO THE COAST AND SLOW. A SECOND AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS ALONG COAST
STARTING TO FORM. THE UL TROF AND LOW IN THE WRN GREAT LAKES BECOMES
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT DIGS SE TOWARDS BGM. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
TO 60 KTS AS THE LOW BOMBS ON THE COAST BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. FOR NOW GULF OPEN AT MID LEVELS BRINGING IN MORE MODELS.
EACH MODEL RUN HAS PUT MORE QPF IN THE CWA AND NOW HAS A GOOD 2
INCHES. AT A CONSERVATIVE 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO THIS IS 20 INCHES.
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND LESS WARM AIR
ALOFT AMOUNTS COULD GET CLOSE TO 3 FEET. ALSO ACROSS NY BANDING
SIGNATURES AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND. IN THE
FAR SE SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER WHICH WILL CAUSE SLEET THERE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTN. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON THE SNOW TOTALS
SO...ONLY 10 TO 20 INCHES.
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS OUT LATE WED AFTN AND WED EVE. COULD BE
SEVERAL MORE INCHES IN THE NE. ALSO WED AFTN AND NGT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO N THEN W AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. SNOW
WILL BE DRIFTING WHILE WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING AROUND OUR EXTREME N COULD STAY IN LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW INTO THU WHEN THE STORM WILL FINALLY BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY.
ON THU THE LAKE EFFECT GETS GOING AGAIN AS 850 TEMPS FALL BELOW
-20C. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVG ACROSS SRN ONTARIO WILL BRING THE
DYNAMICS FOR ANOTHER CHC OF HEAVY LES. FOR NOW NOT HITTING IT
HARD. WILL ALSO WAIT ON LES WATCH UNTIL SYNOPTIC STORM CLEARS THE
AREA. NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AGAIN IN THE BEST AREA FOR A SINGLE BAND.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND COASTAL UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNTIL THE END OF EXTENDED PERIOD. OCCASIONAL H5 SHORT WAVES WILL
REINFORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD AIR THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
SOME MODERATION AND RISING HEIGHTS BEGINS ON TUESDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT
NRN CWA WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FRIDAY NIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS T85 WARMS AND FLOW BACKS IN
ADVANCE OF SFC LOW MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY,
INCLUDED CHC POPS ENTIRE FA AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND ANOTHER MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. -RRM
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
PA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
043-044-047-048-072.
&&
$$
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