Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 02/19/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... WIDESPREAD BANDS OF -SN CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. PREVAILING VSBYS SHOULD BE IN THE 3-5SM RANGE...BUT WITHIN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW THEY COULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...CIGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LOW...GENERALLY NO LESS THAN 1KFT AGL. BASED ON LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...FEEL THAT CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1-2KFT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TAFS WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION WINDS WILL TURN MORE W/NW AND GUST TO NEAR 25KTS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SOME P6SM -SHSN TOMORROW...AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR -SHSN...ESPECIALLY OVER SDF/LEX TAF SITES. CS && .MESO UPDATE... ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE: BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA...A LOT OF THE SNOW IS MELTING ON ROADWAYS...BUT STICKING TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ROOFTOPS. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING PLUS TREATMENTS BY HIGHWAY DEPTS ARE HELPING MELT SNOW ON PRIMARY ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY BUT HAVE MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN THE ZONES THAT MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS. EVEN SO...HEAVY SNOW BURSTS COULD STILL RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS...SOMETHING TO WATCH. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A HEALTHY BATCH OF SNOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST INTENSITIES FROM ROUGHLY I-65 WEST INTO WRN KY/SRN IL/SW IN AS OF 1545Z. BANDS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUICK ACCUMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO BELOW ONE HALF MILE BASED ON SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS. CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS INDICATE A WIDESPREAD 2" SNOWFALL THUS FAR ROUGHLY WEST OF A BWG-HARDINSBURG-ENGLISH LINE...WITH A RAPID DROP OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO EARLIER DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR SPECIFIC REPORTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS... THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY/BANDED IN NATURE. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE PRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH FAR WRN KY...THAT ON EARLIER RADAR IMAGES COULD BE CALLED A "SQUALL LINE OF SNOW"...JUST HAD THAT LOOK TO IT. THIS WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTN. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z RUC MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS AFTN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...EARLIER ACARS SOUNDINGS AT MEMPHIS SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT RUC IS A TOUCH TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE MENTION THAT RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTN OVER SRN KY. REGARDING AMOUNTS...BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP... WILL INCREASE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2-3" RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. DUE TO BANDED/SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIP...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY VARY A LOT OVER SHORT DISTANCES...AND THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL ALSO COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN SOME RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING 40DBZ...HANDLING THIS WITH SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. TWO AREAS THAT MAY SEE LESS ARE THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (NEAR MADISON) BASED SOLELY ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF A RELATIVE MIN IN PRECIP COVERAGE...AND ALONG THE KY/TN LINE WHERE A RA/SN MIX MAY OCCUR. WILL SIMPLY MENTION THESE POSSIBILITIES IN THE WSW...LEAVING THE ALIGNMENT/TIMES THE SAME AS THEY ARE NOW. I DID INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER MO/IL. IT`S NOW SNOWING PRETTY GOOD HERE AT THE WFO WITH DECENT SIZED FLAKES. UPDATED FCST/HEADLINES SHOULD BE OUT BY 1130 AM EST. CS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AT 06Z WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY...OPENING UP INTO A TROF BY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS THAT ARE READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD. THE FIRST IMPULSE WAS LOCATED NEAR PADUCAH AT 06Z. THE SECOND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WAS JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY. THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BUT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY LAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FIRST AREA OF SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD FROM THE RECENT CHILLY WEATHER THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM STICKING SO SOME SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AFTER A BREAK IN THE SNOW LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. MOS TEMPERATURES AT 06Z WERE ALMOST ALL RUNNING TOO COOL... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. LOOKING AT POSSIBLE AFTERNOON HIGHS...IT SEEMS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS THERE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SNOW LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN THE BLUE GRASS (LEXINGTON) AREA TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AROUND 2 TO AS MUCH AS 2 AND A HALF INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HPC THINKING WHICH INDICATES AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE TONIGHT. 13 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY-FRIDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE EAST LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THUS MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION...HOW COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND SETS IN OVER THE AREA...AND THEN PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AT MID WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER THE AREA BY 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH LOWER CLOUDS PERSISTING CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET... BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SLOWING THE COOLING. HAVE RAISED MINS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS REASON. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 30S. EXPECT TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WEST HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH TO TURN THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCHOLZ && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ FOR KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082. IN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1145 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007 .MESO UPDATE... ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE: BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA...A LOT OF THE SNOW IS MELTING ON ROADWAYS...BUT STICKING TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ROOFTOPS. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING PLUS TREATMENTS BY HIGHWAY DEPTS ARE HELPING MELT SNOW ON PRIMARY ROADWAYS. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY BUT HAVE MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY IN THE ZONES THAT MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS. EVEN SO...HEAVY SNOW BURSTS COULD STILL RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS...SOMETHING TO WATCH. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW: REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A HEALTHY BATCH OF SNOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST INTENSITIES FROM ROUGHLY I-65 WEST INTO WRN KY/SRN IL/SW IN AS OF 1545Z. BANDS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUICK ACCUMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO BELOW ONE HALF MILE BASED ON SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS. CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS INDICATE A WIDESPREAD 2" SNOWFALL THUS FAR ROUGHLY WEST OF A BWG-HARDINSBURG-ENGLISH LINE...WITH A RAPID DROP OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO EARLIER DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR SPECIFIC REPORTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS... THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY/BANDED IN NATURE. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE PRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH FAR WRN KY...THAT ON EARLIER RADAR IMAGES COULD BE CALLED A "SQUALL LINE OF SNOW"...JUST HAD THAT LOOK TO IT. THIS WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTN. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z RUC MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS AFTN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...EARLIER ACARS SOUNDINGS AT MEMPHIS SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT RUC IS A TOUCH TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE MENTION THAT RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTN OVER SRN KY. REGARDING AMOUNTS...BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP... WILL INCREASE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2-3" RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. DUE TO BANDED/SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIP...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY VARY A LOT OVER SHORT DISTANCES...AND THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL ALSO COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN SOME RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING 40DBZ...HANDLING THIS WITH SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. TWO AREAS THAT MAY SEE LESS ARE THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (NEAR MADISON) BASED SOLELY ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF A RELATIVE MIN IN PRECIP COVERAGE...AND ALONG THE KY/TN LINE WHERE A RA/SN MIX MAY OCCUR. WILL SIMPLY MENTION THESE POSSIBILITIES IN THE WSW...LEAVING THE ALIGNMENT/TIMES THE SAME AS THEY ARE NOW. I DID INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER MO/IL. IT`S NOW SNOWING PRETTY GOOD HERE AT THE WFO WITH DECENT SIZED FLAKES. UPDATED FCST/HEADLINES SHOULD BE OUT BY 1130 AM EST. CS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AT 06Z WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY...OPENING UP INTO A TROF BY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS THAT ARE READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD. THE FIRST IMPULSE WAS LOCATED NEAR PADUCAH AT 06Z. THE SECOND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WAS JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY. THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BUT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY LAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FIRST AREA OF SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD FROM THE RECENT CHILLY WEATHER THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM STICKING SO SOME SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AFTER A BREAK IN THE SNOW LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. MOS TEMPERATURES AT 06Z WERE ALMOST ALL RUNNING TOO COOL... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. LOOKING AT POSSIBLE AFTERNOON HIGHS...IT SEEMS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS THERE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SNOW LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN THE BLUE GRASS (LEXINGTON) AREA TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AROUND 2 TO AS MUCH AS 2 AND A HALF INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HPC THINKING WHICH INDICATES AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE TONIGHT. 13 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY-FRIDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE EAST LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THUS MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION...HOW COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND SETS IN OVER THE AREA...AND THEN PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AT MID WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER THE AREA BY 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH LOWER CLOUDS PERSISTING CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET... BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SLOWING THE COOLING. HAVE RAISED MINS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS REASON. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 30S. EXPECT TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WEST HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH TO TURN THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCHOLZ && .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TODAY...TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT TODAY...GOING BACK AND FORTH FROM VFR BETWEEN PATCHES OF SNOW TO BRIEFLY IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. FOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS KEPT THE TAFS GENERALLY MVFR. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE BWG AND POSSIBLY SDF SHOULD LOSE THEIR LOW CEILING OVERNIGHT...MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG IN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT LEX. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ FOR KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082. IN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1105 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007 .MESO UPDATE... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A HEALTHY BATCH OF SNOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ASSOC WITH INCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM...BEST COVERAGE AND HIGHEST INTENSITIES FROM ROUGHLY I-65 WEST INTO WRN KY/SRN IL/SW IN AS OF 1545Z. BANDS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN PRODUCING QUICK ACCUMS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO BELOW ONE HALF MILE BASED ON SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS. CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS INDICATE A WIDESPREAD 2" SNOWFALL THUS FAR ROUGHLY WEST OF A BWG-HARDINSBURG-ENGLISH LINE...WITH A RAPID DROP OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO EARLIER DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR SPECIFIC REPORTS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS... THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY/BANDED IN NATURE. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE PRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH FAR WRN KY...THAT ON EARLIER RADAR IMAGES COULD BE CALLED A "SQUALL LINE OF SNOW"...JUST HAD THAT LOOK TO IT. THIS WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTN. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z RUC MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS AFTN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...EARLIER ACARS SOUNDINGS AT MEMPHIS SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT RUC IS A TOUCH TOO COOL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE MENTION THAT RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH SNOW AT TIMES THIS AFTN OVER SRN KY. REGARDING AMOUNTS...BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP... WILL INCREASE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2-3" RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA. DUE TO BANDED/SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIP...AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY VARY A LOT OVER SHORT DISTANCES...AND THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL ALSO COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN SOME RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING 40DBZ...HANDLING THIS WITH SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. TWO AREAS THAT MAY SEE LESS ARE THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (NEAR MADISON) BASED SOLELY ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF A RELATIVE MIN IN PRECIP COVERAGE...AND ALONG THE KY/TN LINE WHERE A RA/SN MIX MAY OCCUR. WILL SIMPLY MENTION THESE POSSIBILITIES IN THE WSW...LEAVING THE ALIGNMENT/TIMES THE SAME AS THEY ARE NOW. I DID INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS TONIGHT INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER MO/IL. IT`S NOW SNOWING PRETTY GOOD HERE AT THE WFO WITH DECENT SIZED FLAKES. UPDATED FCST/HEADLINES SHOULD BE OUT BY 1130 AM EST. CS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AT 06Z WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY...OPENING UP INTO A TROF BY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS THAT ARE READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD. THE FIRST IMPULSE WAS LOCATED NEAR PADUCAH AT 06Z. THE SECOND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WAS JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY. THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BUT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY LAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FIRST AREA OF SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD FROM THE RECENT CHILLY WEATHER THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM STICKING SO SOME SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AFTER A BREAK IN THE SNOW LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. MOS TEMPERATURES AT 06Z WERE ALMOST ALL RUNNING TOO COOL... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. LOOKING AT POSSIBLE AFTERNOON HIGHS...IT SEEMS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS THERE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SNOW LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN THE BLUE GRASS (LEXINGTON) AREA TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AROUND 2 TO AS MUCH AS 2 AND A HALF INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HPC THINKING WHICH INDICATES AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE TONIGHT. 13 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY-FRIDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE EAST LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THUS MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION...HOW COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND SETS IN OVER THE AREA...AND THEN PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AT MID WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER THE AREA BY 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH LOWER CLOUDS PERSISTING CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET... BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SLOWING THE COOLING. HAVE RAISED MINS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS REASON. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 30S. EXPECT TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WEST HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH TO TURN THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCHOLZ && .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TODAY...TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT TODAY...GOING BACK AND FORTH FROM VFR BETWEEN PATCHES OF SNOW TO BRIEFLY IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. FOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS KEPT THE TAFS GENERALLY MVFR. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE BWG AND POSSIBLY SDF SHOULD LOSE THEIR LOW CEILING OVERNIGHT...MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG IN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT LEX. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ FOR KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082. IN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
850 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007 .MESO UPDATE... CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. BANDS OF -SN TRANSLATING SE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOME VSBYS OVER WRN KY/SRN IL/SW IN COMING IN NEAR 1SM. GENERIC RULE OF THUMB IS THAT ANYTHING BELOW 3SM WILL ACCUMULATE. SNOW IS FINALLY GETTING INTO LEX AREA...BEING DELAYED DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVELS EAST OF I-65. YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THE TIGHT CIRCULATION IN RADAR DATA OVER SE MO ASSOC WITH 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. 12Z RUC PICKS UP CURRENT PRECIP DISTRIBUTION WELL AND SWINGS PRECIP THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE BANDS COULD PIVOT AROUND SUCH THAT LOCALIZED ACCUMS ABOVE 2" ARE POSSIBLE...BUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONE CONCERN WITH DECENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PRECIP TYPE. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS ARE A TOUCH TOO COOL WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT ACARS AT MEMPHIS. THEREFORE FEEL THAT CURRENT FCST OF A RASN MIX IN SRN KY THIS AFTN IS REASONABLE. FOR THE MOST PART PTYPE ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH TEMPS NEARING 30F IN MANY LOCATIONS. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. CS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AT 06Z WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY...OPENING UP INTO A TROF BY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS THAT ARE READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD. THE FIRST IMPULSE WAS LOCATED NEAR PADUCAH AT 06Z. THE SECOND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WAS JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY. THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BATCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BUT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WOULD ONLY LAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FIRST AREA OF SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD FROM THE RECENT CHILLY WEATHER THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM STICKING SO SOME SLICK ROADS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AFTER A BREAK IN THE SNOW LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS NEXT BATCH OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. MOS TEMPERATURES AT 06Z WERE ALMOST ALL RUNNING TOO COOL... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. LOOKING AT POSSIBLE AFTERNOON HIGHS...IT SEEMS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS THERE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE SNOW LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN THE BLUE GRASS (LEXINGTON) AREA TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AROUND 2 TO AS MUCH AS 2 AND A HALF INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HPC THINKING WHICH INDICATES AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS THIS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE TONIGHT. 13 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY-FRIDAY)... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE EAST LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THUS MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION...HOW COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND SETS IN OVER THE AREA...AND THEN PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AT MID WEEK. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER THE AREA BY 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH LOWER CLOUDS PERSISTING CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET... BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SLOWING THE COOLING. HAVE RAISED MINS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS REASON. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S. WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH ADVANCING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE MID 30S. EXPECT TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE WEST HALF BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH TO TURN THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCHOLZ && .AVIATION (12Z TAFS)... A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE TAF SITES TODAY...TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL VARY QUITE A BIT TODAY...GOING BACK AND FORTH FROM VFR BETWEEN PATCHES OF SNOW TO BRIEFLY IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. FOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS KEPT THE TAFS GENERALLY MVFR. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE BWG AND POSSIBLY SDF SHOULD LOSE THEIR LOW CEILING OVERNIGHT...MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG IN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT LEX. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074. SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TO 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ FOR KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082. IN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST SAT FEB 17 2007 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE COOLING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THIS LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FAIR AND BRIEFLY WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)... IT WAS VERY WARM TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED ELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASING TO ABOUT 25 KT AT 10 KFT AND WLY WINDS ALOFT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT -10 MB SAN-TPH AND THERE WERE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. THE MAINLY GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY STRONG BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...MAINLY IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND SUN AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS. DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES E. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOCAL LARGER AMOUNTS NEAR W FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE 7000 FT BUT WILL LOWER TO 5000-6000 FT MON THEN LOWERING A BIT MORE MON NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MUCH COOLER SUN AND MON. DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND WARMER TUE AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W AND BRIEF WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)... CONTINUED FAIR WED WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP CHANGES FROM TUE AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER PAC TROUGH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...COOLING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU INTO FRI. HOWEVER...THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND A LITTLE WARMING SAT AS THE LOW MOVES E. && .AVIATION... SEA BREEZE WILL BE AFFECTING ELEVATIONS BELOW FL010 UNTIL 1700 PST/0100 UTC. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE TURBULENCE OVER AND WEST OF MOUNTAINS UNTIL 2200 PST/0600 UTC DUE TO CONTINUING EAST WINDS 15-25 KT IN THE FL010-FL050 LAYER AND MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KT. AFTER 2200 PST/0600 UTC UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS BELOW FL100 TO BACK TO SOUTHEAST 10-15 KT. REGION SHOULD REMAIN CLOUD FREE BELOW FL140...HOWEVER ABOVE THIS LAYER THERE WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRO/ALTOSTRATUS LEADING TO LIGHT ICING IN CLOUDS BETWEEN FL150-FL200 IS POSSIBLE AFTER 0400 PST/1200 UTC SUNDAY. && .MARINE... A LARGE WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND BE ACCOMPANIED WITH VERY CHOPPY SEAS DUE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. SPRING TIDES ARE MODERATING AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM ENCINITAS SOUTHWARD TO IMPERIAL BEACH DURING THE HIGH TIDES. ALREADY ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY. NEXT SIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. SEE LAXNPWSGX. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES SUN AND MON. SEE LAXSRFSGX HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SAN DIEGO BEACHES FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM PST TUESDAY. SEE LAXCFWSGX. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS BRINGING MUCH MILDER AIR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TODAY. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM MSP/MCI/RFD SHOW AS MUCH AS 55 KNOTS BETWEEN 850 AND 925MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE 30S IN WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS OF 330 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY AND THERE HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN SO FAR. WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH AS THE AIR MOISTENS FURTHER TODAY. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS IS DIFFICULT...AS LOW LEVELS QUITE DRY TO OUR SOUTH OVER ILLINOIS. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TO TEMPER THE WARM UP... WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TRENDED DOWNWARD A LITTLE IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING STORM THIS WEEKEND WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE CANADIAN/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. WITH CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SLOW THAN WHAT THE GFS IS SUGGEST. AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT...GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF RUN LAST NIGHT. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW EVERYWHERE THEN BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THE 00Z GFS TONIGHT TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND LOOKED MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF FROM THE LAST NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF TONIGHT SHIFTED THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER WEST AND IS NOW WEST OF GREEN BAY ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE... CURRENT GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS WILL SUFFICE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. DID LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS QPF/SNOW FIELDS AND THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS... THE GFS QPF TOTALS ARE DOWN RIGHT SCARY. THE GFS WAS GIVING CLOSE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF AT RHINELANDER...WHICH WOULD POSSIBLY MEAN OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ALTHOUGH SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. AT GREEN BAY... THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATED OVER AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH UNTIL THE WRF MODEL CAN CATCH ONTO SYSTEM FOR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES. STAY TUNED! && .AVIATION...ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5000 TO 6000 FT CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT EARLY...BUT THEN INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN PCPN FORECAST...BOTH TYPE AND CHANCES...DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE TAFS IS RELATIVELY LOW. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ RDM/ECKBERG WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS UPTON NY
1005 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007 .NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)... TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUTTING DOWN SOON AS RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY. IN FACT...EXPECT RIDGE AXIS OVER AREA BY THIS EVENING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS ON W/SW RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO CUT WITH THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...I DO EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...ALONG WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON (MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A BIT OF INSTABILITY STRATO-CU GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF RIDGING). GUSTY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AS MENTIONED EARLIER. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY RADIATE WELL TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF CWA...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BEFORE CIRRUS THICKENS. BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW AND WAA LATE TONIGHT AND THICKENING CIRRUS SHOULD HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CITY/COAST. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS TO ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. && .SHORT TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... NEAR ZONAL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY RIDGED ON EAST COAST AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF GETS SHEARED FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH LEAVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SW STATES...LEADING TO A DRIER AND QUICKER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LESS PROGRESSIVE AND WETTER ECMWF/CANREG/GFS/UKMET SOLUTION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN AND SCATTERED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. WITH FORCING WEAK EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT BUT TAPPING ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTRIBUTION TO HAVE A WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE EVENT. SREF IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THINKING AND OPERATIONAL SUITE...DEPICTING HIGH LIKELY CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST .05" QPF. SO WILL GO INCREASING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. MODELS INITIALLY SUPPORT SNOW/SLEET EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...BUT THEN CHANGING TO RAIN FROM S TO N WITH CONTINUED WAA IN THE AFTERNOON. WAA FLOW RAISES 950 HPA TEMPS TO 2 TO 3 C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WITH FULL MIXING TO THAT LEVEL WOULD MEAN MID TO UPPER 40S. BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GO MORE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40 RANGE. A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY EVENING...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SUFFICIENT COLUMN COOLING ACROSS INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THEN INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE LIFT/MOISTURE AXIS SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD GENERALLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN HAVE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES MIX IN ALL THE WAY TO THE CITY/COAST...WITH NO ACCUM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT IS OF PAC ORIGIN...AND WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (LOW TO MID 40S). && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER COULD COME LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. && .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING TOWARD TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. UNLIMITED VISIBILITY TODAY AND SCATTERED STRATO CUMULUS (RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS). WINDS REMAIN THE IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE UPSTREAM HIGH. WINDS DO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE REGION AND THE DIRECTION BACKS TO THE WEST. THIS FAVORS THE 22`S AT KEWR. EXPECT LOW LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBC FOR THE GA FOLKS - CHECK FOR AWC AIRMETS. ACARS AND MORNING OFFICE SOUNDING INDICATE 50 KTS UP A FEW THOUSAND FEET. OUTLOOK...TOMORROW REMAINS VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 050 WITH SOUTHWEST (230) FLOW GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR PERHAPS SOME IFR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALES FOR ALL WATERS AT THIS TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES UNTIL WINDS RELAX BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE...WHICH IS MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OCEAN AND NY HARBOR ZONES...AND EARLY EVENING FOR WESTERN LI SOUND. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY (SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS)...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (AROUND THE HIGH) AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. APPROACHING LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT...BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL TUE/TUES NIGHT...WHEN ONE TO TWO TENTHS QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. PART OF THAT MAY BE IN FORM OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONN. WITH ICE ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...STAGE LEVELS MAY FLUCTUATE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ338- 355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338- 350-353-355. LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1058 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007 .UPDATE...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON...THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. LIGHT SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE NOW PUSHING NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BAND INTO WESTERN INDIANA. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE SEEN WITH THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. JUST SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...NOW LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON STILL REVOLVE AROUND DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. SO FAR THIS MORNING...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST ARE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY DRIZZLE. MATTER OF FACT...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE NOWHERE TO BE SEEN. THERE ARE SOME LOWER CEILINGS...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. DULUTH...WHERE LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OCCURING...IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH...AS ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE ONLY UP TO AROUND 900MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS GET THE MOISTURE UP TO AROUND 800MB. THUS...MODEL DATA IS NOT REALLY AGREEING WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WITH THIS ALL SAID...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FORCING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE COMING THROUGH. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER IN THE NORTH AS WELL...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE DLH AND MQT AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST... TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. KAS && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 443 AM EST MON FEB 19 DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND CONTINUING TO SLIDE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC...WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED QUICK FLOW EMERGING OVER NOAM. SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHILE ASSOCIATED SHARP SFC RIDGE AXIS ALREADY EAST OF THE STATE. UPSTREAM...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SFC LOW CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WELL AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAMPING UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER NOW ACROSS MICHIGAN AND BAND OF MAINLY MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS (TELLTALE RING AROUND THE RADAR LOOK) OVER THE CWA. PER SFC OBS NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR BUT BEST POSSIBILITIES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LOOKING TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REVOLVE AROUND SNOW CHANCES WITH THE WARM ADVECTION FORCING TODAY...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES LATER IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKING TO BE ENTIRELY ON THE FRONT END WITH WARM ADVECTION SURGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OR SO. HOWEVER... GIVEN WEDGE OF DRY AIR BLO 800 MB DURING THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE SNOW. BEST SHOT LOOKING TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL COME TOGETHER. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITIES. WITHIN THE DEVELOPING STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS REMAIN ADAMANT SATURATING THE LOWER LAYERS BLO 800 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH A THERMAL PROFILE WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST DATA CERTAINLY HAS A FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOK ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH LOOKING UPSTREAM NO REAL SIGN OF THIS AS OF YET. A COLDER PROFILE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS AS SNOW. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION. STILL JUST COLD ENOUGH (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS AROUND IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED A MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BEFORE FLOW RE-AMPLIFICATION TAKES SHAPE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A STRONG SRN STREAM STORM UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SLATED TO PASS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO THE UPPER PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS WARM ADVECTION PRECIP (IN ADVANCE OF WEEKEND STORM) MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THIS FAR OUT MODELS ARE USUALLY FAST WITH SYSTEMS LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS AND HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD. ADAM && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF LOW PRES/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES. BASED ON BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING IN HWO. CONSENSUS OF 12Z NAM/GFS/RUC OUTPUT INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP TONIGHT ASSOC WITH STRONG LLJ (50-60KTS BETWEEN 800-900MB). THIS WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING WITH SUNSET...BUT THEN STEADYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY TOWARD 12Z/TUE AS FRONT APPROACHES. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ASSOC WITH LIFT FROM COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PCPN AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S SOLUTIONS...AND THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP SOLUTIONS TUESDAY IN THE VARIOUS MODELS...WITH GFS EVEN PRODUCING SOME -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE REGION WITHIN STRONG WAA. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA OVERNIGHT GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GFS PRODUCES A STREAK OF QPF OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE CWA TUE AFTN...WHILE NAM PRODUCES THAT SAME FEATURE OVER SRN KY...AND MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BLEND THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH YIELDS 70-80% POPS OVER NEARLY THE WHOLE CWA TUESDAY (MAINLY AFTER 15Z)...WITH PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING RAPIDLY FROM NW-SE AFTER 3Z TUES EVENING. AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SRN KY TUES AFTN/EVE...AS BOTH NAM/GFS BRING INSTABILITY INTO THE CWA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM BRINGS A PLUME OF SUB-ZERO 850MB LI`S ACROSS DOWNSTATE KY...WHILE GFS EVEN HAS SFC-LI ZERO LINE NEAR BWG AT 0Z/WED. THEREFORE WILL FCST THUNDER CHANCES OVER SRN KY TUES AFTN/EVE...AND MENTION SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS/SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SPC DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK IS JUST ACROSS THE BORDER INTO WRN/CNTRL TENN. CS .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... DECENT CONSISTENCY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND HAVE NOT CLOSED ANY...ALSO SOME MINOR CHANGES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA HAVING SOME INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. WITH MANY DETAILS STILL BLURRED BY THE MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WILL TRY TO FOCUS THEM BY USING A CONSISTENT GFS MODEL THROUGH THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME THEN THE MREF MEAN MAINLY INTO NEXT WEEK...IT HAS SOLID SUPPORT FROM THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE UKMET. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH TROUGH STARTING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS...AND WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVES INTO THE FAR NE STATES. RIDGING STARTS TO DRIFT EAST AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES ONSHORE. WAA LOOKS TO START TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AS THE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE STEADY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY WARM FRIDAY. EACH DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGHOUT...SO HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE SLOWER MOISTURE RETURN AND SLOWER H500 LOW EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD FALLS WITHIN THESE TWO DAYS...STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW LOOKS TO TRACK FROM NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF OK TO NEAR NW MO/SW IA BY EVENING AND ON TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY SUN LATE AFTERNOON...DEEPENING AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS SHOWS GRADIENT WINDS NEARING 20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY FOR HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS WELL AS RAISING DEWPOINTS WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY. PWATS NEAR 1 TO 1.1 INCHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A LIKELY SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS/FORECAST HOLDS...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL SURPASS .75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST...STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CLOSE TO 60 OR 70 KTS WILL BE PRESENT BY EARLY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. SO DYNAMICS ARE THERE...WILL BE JUST NEEDING SOME INSTABILITY AS MODELS ARE ONLY HINTING AT THE SLIGHTEST OF CAPES/MARGINAL LIS ALONG A THIN LINE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME PRECEDENT FOR THIS TO CREATE DECENT WINDS...A VERY SIMILAR LOOKING CASE ON 10 NOV 1998. THAT EVENT LOOKED JUST THE SAME WITH SLIGHT INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...DEEP SFC LOW AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOME CURRENT DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE 98 CASE...AND H850 TEMPS REACHED JUST ABOVE 12C IN 98... CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT 10 TO 12C. THE 10 NOV 98 CASE PRODUCED 45 TO 60 KT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A THIN SQUALL LINE...22 STRONG WIND REPORTS IN KENTUCKY WITH 69 STRONG WIND REPORTS IN INDIANA. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON HOW THIS STORM SYSTEM TRENDS. MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK... COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH DRAMATIC DROP IN H850 TEMPS FROM 10 TO 12 C TO AROUND -1 OR -2C BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CREATES A SLIGHT BLOCK TO THE CLOSED LOW TRYING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. HOLDING IT TEMPORARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BLOCKING RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN WITH SE RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND RETURN OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS LIKELY. SOME STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE INDICES...THE NAO IS TRENDING POSITIVE...THE PNA REMAINS NEGATIVE AND THE EPO POSITIVE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MARCH. SCHOTT && .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BUMPY RIDE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS AS OF 17Z...AND BASED ON RECENT NAM/RUC BUFKIT PROFILES EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-28KTS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL JET FCST TO INCREASE THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO TONIGHT...IN FACT 1655Z ACARS SOUNDING AT SDF ALREADY SHOWING CLOSE TO 50KTS AT 3500FT MSL. LLJ WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50KTS LIKELY DOWN TO 2KFT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. GFS IS QUICKER IN DEVELOPING PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM DELAYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/TUE. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING PREVAILING -RA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9-12Z. CS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1210 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007 COR TIMESTAMP .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BUMPY RIDE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS AS OF 17Z...AND BASED ON RECENT NAM/RUC BUFKIT PROFILES EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-28KTS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL JET FCST TO INCREASE THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO TONIGHT...IN FACT 1655Z ACARS SOUNDING AT SDF ALREADY SHOWING CLOSE TO 50KTS AT 3500FT MSL. LLJ WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50KTS LIKELY DOWN TO 2KFT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. GFS IS QUICKER IN DEVELOPING PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM DELAYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/TUE. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING PREVAILING -RA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9-12Z. CS && .UPDATE... PRIMARY WX IMPACT OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES OVER UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS FROM NAM/RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH TODAY IN OUR CWA. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE ZFP/HWO. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NOT ENOUGH SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND TO REALLY AFFECT TEMPS...WHICH ARE FCST TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN THIS WARM SINCE JANUARY 27TH...23 DAYS AGO. UPDATED FCST OUT BY 1030 AM EST. CS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE US WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS. REMAINING SNOW COVER IS SHALLOW AND PATCHY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS FROM YESTERDAY SHOW SNOWFIELD DISAPPEARING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEST OF THE BLUE GRASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GOOD SUN TODAY THE SNOW PACK SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RISING TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP THE BLUE GRASS AND SOME OF SOUTHERN INDIANA IN THE MIDDLE 40S BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. TONIGHT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL STRETCH FROM DETROIT TO SAINT LOUIS TO AMARILLO. A FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT BY FAR THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. 13 .LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)... SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND RETREATING HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS THAT BEGIN OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO BECOME LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS IS INDICATING GOOD LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. SPC INDICATED THUNDER ONLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. NAM IS QUICKEST BRINGING FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY GFS THEN ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FRONT REACHING OHIO RIVER CLOSE TO 00Z. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN DAY BEFORE WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS REACHING LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY ENDED BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WITH ZONAL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS HAS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO LATER PART OF FORECAST FOR NOW. SCHOLZ && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1210 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A BUMPY RIDE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS AS OF 17Z...AND BASED ON RECENT NAM/RUC BUFKIT PROFILES EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-28KTS THIS AFTN AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL JET FCST TO INCREASE THIS AFTN...LASTING INTO TONIGHT...IN FACT 1655Z ACARS SOUNDING AT SDF ALREADY SHOWING CLOSE TO 50KTS AT 3500FT MSL. LLJ WIND SPEEDS OF 40-50KTS LIKELY DOWN TO 2KFT AGL THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. GFS IS QUICKER IN DEVELOPING PRECIP OVERNIGHT...WHILE NAM DELAYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z/TUE. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING PREVAILING -RA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9-12Z. CS && .UPDATE... PRIMARY WX IMPACT OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES OVER UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST BUFKIT DIAGNOSTICS FROM NAM/RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH TODAY IN OUR CWA. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE ZFP/HWO. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NOT ENOUGH SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND TO REALLY AFFECT TEMPS...WHICH ARE FCST TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN THIS WARM SINCE JANUARY 27TH...23 DAYS AGO. UPDATED FCST OUT BY 1030 AM EST. CS && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY WILL PROVIDE US WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS. REMAINING SNOW COVER IS SHALLOW AND PATCHY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS FROM YESTERDAY SHOW SNOWFIELD DISAPPEARING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEST OF THE BLUE GRASS...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GOOD SUN TODAY THE SNOW PACK SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR HINDRANCE TO RISING TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP THE BLUE GRASS AND SOME OF SOUTHERN INDIANA IN THE MIDDLE 40S BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. TONIGHT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL STRETCH FROM DETROIT TO SAINT LOUIS TO AMARILLO. A FEW SMALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT BY FAR THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. 13 .LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)... SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND RETREATING HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS THAT BEGIN OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO BECOME LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS IS INDICATING GOOD LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. SPC INDICATED THUNDER ONLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. NAM IS QUICKEST BRINGING FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY GFS THEN ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FRONT REACHING OHIO RIVER CLOSE TO 00Z. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS ENTIRE AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN DAY BEFORE WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS REACHING LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY ENDED BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WITH ZONAL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS HAS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO LATER PART OF FORECAST FOR NOW. SCHOLZ && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW PRESENT ALOFT SUPPORTS QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES AND SFC LOWS TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN UPR GREAT LAKES. AT LEAST THAT IS THE THEME THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPR AIR PATTERN DEVELOPS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS DEEP TROUGH PRESENTLY OVR GULF OF ALASKA (00Z AIRCRAFT REPORT OF 200KT AT H3) DIGS TOWARD FAR SW CONUS FRI AND LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON PCPN TYPE...BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST LARGE SCALE PCPN EVENT OVR UPR LAKES IN QUITE A WHILE. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM LATER. SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM IS MOVING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ATTM WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVR FAR NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE A FAIRLY LOW PRES OF 29.3 INCHES OR 994MB...NOT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN TODAY OVR UPR MI. WIDESPREAD PCPN STAYED WELL TO NORTH OVR MANITOBA AND ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT. EVEN A COUPLE OF 1/4SM +SN REPORTS EARLY AFTN JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. TO THE SOUTH IN THE WARM SECTOR OVR UPR MI... DRY AIR BLO H9 AND ABOVE H85 HAS RESULTED IN A PERSISTENT BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK. A FEW LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOTED CLOSE TO LK MI WITH THE S/SW WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY. GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO ECLIPSE THE FREEZING MARK AT A FEW SOUTH CENTRAL UPR MI SITES...INCLUDING 36 DEGREES THUS FAR AT MENOMINEE. CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT COOLER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HAS KEPT THE ERN PORTION OF UPR MI STUCK IN THE LWR 20S. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)... GENERALLY TRANQUIL WX EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. LOW PRES PRESSES STEADILY INTO QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR PUSHING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON W-NW WINDS. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT CMX/STDM4 SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEARING 850MB BY 12Z WITH TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP AROUND -10C. PRETTY MARGINAL FOR LES. NO HELP FM ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING EITHER AS THERE IS ONLY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB. EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE OVR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGE FM YDY AFTN SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT LES. IN REALITY...ABOUT THE ONLY THING GOING FOR LES IS FAIRLY MOIST MIXED LAYER AS UNLIKE THE LAST MONTH...THIS IS DEFINETELY NOT DRY/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE LAKE. HAVE ONLY FLURRIES OVR NW CWA DUE TO LIMITING FACTORS BUT DID KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN GRIDS OVR NORTHEAST CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS NW WINDS ALLOW FOR LONGER OVER WATER AND LESS ICE COVERED FETCH. MARGINAL SETUP AND POOR SNOW GROWTH RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM. SHORTWAVE OVR SW SASKATCHEWAN MAKES RUN AT UPR LAKES LATE TUE. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SYNOPTIC PCPN DESPITE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IF IT WAS A BIT COOLER AT H9-H85 LES WOULD LIKELY GET A BOOST OVR NW. BUT SINCE IT IS ACTUALLY WARM ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL JUST KEEP FLURRIES NORTHWEST AND LIGHT LES IN THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN EVERYWHERE...AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BLO INVERSION NEAR H85. WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS PREFERRED TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK AND UPSTREAM TEMPS IN WAKE OF LOW PRES ARE STILL IN THE 20S/30S. H9 TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE OVR MAJORITY OF AREA ON TUE SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF READINGS SEEN THIS AFTN. && .LONG TERM...(TUE NIGHT THROUGH MON) MAIN FCST CONCERNS TURN FROM NEXT CLIPPER SKIMMING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO STORM SYSTEM FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. TUE NIGHT INTO WED... 12Z NAM/GFS PROGS SHOW AN ININITAL WEAK SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 850-700 MB TROF MOVING THROUGH THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PPODUCE ANY MORE THAN FLURRIES. THEN...INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD ACRS THE CWA BTWN 06Z-18Z. WITH ONLY MODERATE LIFT AND SINCE THE 280K LEVEL (900-800 MB LAYER) REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...POPS WERE TAPERED FROM 40 TO 20 FROM NE TO SW. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATONS WILL REMAIN IN THE INCH OR LESS RANGE. WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 40 POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...PER 12Z NAM. WED NIGHT INTO THU... MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV COULD ALSO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING. COLD AIR FOR LES OVERNIGHT INTO THU WILL BE MARGINAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS FCST INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z/THU. HOWEVER...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...SOME LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE EAST WITH THE LONGER FETCH IN FLOW VEERING FROM WNW TO NNW. SHARP PRES RISE OF 10-12 MB/6 HRS...PER GFS ALSO POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE LAKE AND STRONG WINDS FOR EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN(KEWEENAW PENSINULA) AND SHORELINE AREAS. FRI-MON... THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SHRTWV EMERGING FROM THE SW CONUS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS THAT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IN EARLIER RUNS...SIGNFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE FCST WILL TOWARD A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z/12Z/19 ECMWF IN LINE WITH THE HPC PREFERENCE. THE 12Z/19 GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND BACKED AWAY FROM THE 06Z/19 FARTHER W SFC LOW TRACK AND STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AIR BY SUN. THE INTITIAL WAA SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH 290K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SW CWA BY LATE FRI AND SPREAD ACRS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. THE SECOND AND STRONGER BATCH OF DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD SUN AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS MODEL FCST SNDGS SHOW THE TEMP PROFILE BLO 0C...SUPPORTING SNOW...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND/OR ENOUGH SFC WARMING WILL MOVE MOVE IN BY SUN FOR FZRZ/RA/PL CHANCES SUN AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS ALSO OFTEN UNDERPLAYS THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN SUCH PATTERNS. HOWEVER...IF 12Z MODEL TRENDS HOLD UP...THE BULD OF RAIN OR MIXED PCPN WOULD LIKELY OCCUR S OF UPPER MI OR IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA(SHORT TERM) JLB(LONG TERM)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
845 AM PST MON FEB 19 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN COOL MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION HAS PRETTY MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITHOUT ANY RAIN IS THE REGION DOWNWIND OF THE OLYMPICS WHICH AT THE MOMENT IS THE AREA FROM PORT ANGELES AROUND THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PENINSULA AND SOUTH NEARLY TO BREMERTON. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES BY...THIS AREA WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE OLYMPICS AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE WESTERLY RATHER THAN SOUTHWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIRLY STEADY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHTER NEAR THE OLYMPIC HOLE AND HEAVIER OUTSIDE THIS REGION. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SO FAR THE MAIN MOUNTAIN GAGES ARE PICKING UP AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR BUT THIS RATE WILL PICK UP LATER TODAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STEADY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUNCH OUT 2-3 INCHES LIQUID FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE RUNS INDICATING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR STORM TOTALS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT AND FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS ALSO PLENTY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. THUS THE CURRENT WARNING AND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH THE IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET DEPENDING ON LOCATION (MORE NORTH) AND EXPOSURE (MORE WITH WESTERLY EXPOSURE). CURRENT SNOW LEVELS BASED ON ACARS DATA STILL SHOWS ABOUT 2500 FEET AND THIS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN THE CASCADES AND MAYBE TO AROUND 3500 FEET IN THE OLYMPICS. THIS HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR SOME NASTY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THERE IS ALSO THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AVALANCHES AS THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW ON TOP OF WHAT BASICALLY AMOUNTS TO A HARD SLAB OF SNOW/ICE THAT IS ALREADY THERE. FOR MORE ON THIS PLEASE REFER TO THE AVALANCHE CENTER FORECAST AT HTTP://NWAC.US AT LEAST WE WILL BE ADDING TO THE SUMMER WATER SNOWPACK. AS OF THE 15TH THE SNOW PACK WAS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...BUT TRENDING UNDER THE NORMAL LINE OVERALL. THIS WEEKS SNOWFALL WILL HELP THAT SITUATION. FORECAST LOOKS GREAT AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO FOOL WITH IT. NO UPDATES PLANNED. CERNIGLIA .LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DIGGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND CONDITIONS REMAINING COOL AND UNSETTLED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF MOSTLY DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT OF LATE WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS LOOKING COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ANOTHER COLD TROUGH OVER THE REGION. 27 && .AVIATION...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA BY 21Z THIS AFTN WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE AREA 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME TUE. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIGHT N OF KSEA. GUSTY S WINDS ON THE COAST WITH BARRIER JET AND IN THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS AS MESOLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NE OF OLYMPICS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE MORNING. CIGS GENERALLY 010-015 THRU THE PERIOD...BUT LOCALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AT KSEA...STEADY -RA WITH CIGS DROPPING TO BKN015 22Z-00Z THIS AFTN. LOWEST VIS 06Z-14Z TIME FRAME AHEAD OF INCOMING CDFNT. WIND AT KSEA 19012KT...INCRG TO 19018G25KT 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME...THEN DROPPING OFF TO 20010KT BEHIND CDFNT. ALBRECHT $$ .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .GALE WARNING COAST. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING WATERS. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS. .WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OLYMPICS AND THE CASCADES. $$ WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE