AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST TUE FEB 27 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY IN DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW. FAIR AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER WITH
MORE CLOUDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...
THE COLD FRONT BROUGHT MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS EARLIER
TODAY. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY STRONG WLY WINDS
ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 6 MB SAN-IPL AND 11 MB SAN-TPH
AND THERE WERE LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS.
SHOWERS THROUGH WED IN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
ISLAND EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICS. A SECONDARY VORT MAX COULD CAUSE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE SHOWERS TONIGHT TURNING TO SCT SHOWERS
AND GENERALLY TAPERING OFF WED. THE WINDS ALOFT AND ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE DESERTS. LOCAL REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE DESERTS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD RANGE FROM UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH AT THE COAST TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCH ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4500 TO A LITTLE BELOW 4000 FT WED MORNING
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DENSE FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS THU AND FRI FOR DECREASING CLOUDS AND
WINDS AND A LITTLE WARMER DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FRI AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND FOR FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER WITH LOCAL BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH AND BELOW
MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. A UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS
AND COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
272100Z...INITIAL COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE SCATTERED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THE DEEP MOIST LAYER AND INSTABILITY
OVER LAND HAS KEPT CLOUDS ON THE FOOTHILLS AND BACKED UP AGAINST THE
COASTAL SLOPES. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN W OF THE
FOOTHILLS UNTIL AFTER 08Z...THEN THICKEN AND LOWER WITH AREAS OF
CIGS BETWEEN 1.5K AND 3K FT MSL AND VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT AND PASSAGE OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN BACKED
UP ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES THROUGH WED OBSCURING THE TERRAIN...DUE
TO CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD DROP TO
FL040 AFTER 03Z.
WINDS WEST 15 TO 25 KT BELOW FL050...INCREASING TO 27040KT NEAR
FL100. THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN WAVE/ROTOR
ACTIVITY WITH STRONG UDDFS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE DESERTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACING WAVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CRESTS COULD
GENERATE SEVERE TURBULENCE WITH LOCAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KT...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
DESERTS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. SEE LAXNPWSGX.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. SEE LAXWSWSGX.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DVA
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
.UPDATE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN ENHANCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WAS BLOSSOMING OVER THE MIDDLE DELMARVA
REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THAT AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIQUID, SO WE`VE INCLUDED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN THE SNOW IN THE NORTH AND THE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH, WE`VE SIMPLY GONE WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH THE MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES AS WELL TO THE NORTH OF
PHL. RECENT ACARS DATA FROM THE PHL REGION INDICATED THAT THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS UP AROUND 2500 FEET AT 9:00 PM. WITH THE LIGHT
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP, IT SHOULD REACH THE GROUND AS LIQUID FOR
THE MOST PART.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT FEATURE SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, WE`VE
KEPT THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS A BIT. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIP MAY STILL FALL
AS LIQUID IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT THAT TIME, SO WE`VE WORDED
THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED, WE`VE RAISED THEM A FEW NOTCHES IN
THE GRIDS FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM. THE FORECAST MINIMA CONTINUED TO
SEEM REASONABLE.
$$
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
606 AM CST MON FEB 26 2007
.DISCUSSION...
313 AM CST
THE 1500 METER AGL WIND PLOT SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN SHEBOYGAN AND MILWAUKEE. THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER MILWAUKEE AT 08 UTC. THE ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD AT 0601
UTC SHOWS SOME VEERING BELOW 1.2 KILOMETERS. THERE IS STILL SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS THIS CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH. THIS CIRCULATION OR
UPPER AIR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND JOIN THE CIRCULATION OF
A 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. THAT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FROM THE SURFACE TO 1.2
KILOMETER ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY. THIS IS SEEN ON THE LOCAL
WRF ARW MODEL FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT THE SKY TO BE
OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS VERY WET SNOW AND WATER ON THE
GROUND WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE SKY WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF BRING A
500 MB RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
WESTERN MISSOURI. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. THERE WILL BE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO IOWA. THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SYNOPTIC TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
606 AM CST
DRIZZLE FALLING AT KMDW AND KGYY EXPECTED TO END IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS TREND UPSTREAM HAS BEEN IMPROVING VISIBILITY.
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
MN WHILE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBS PLOTS SHOW AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SW WI. 06Z GFS RUN
INITIALIZED THE CIRCULATION WELL AND INDICATES THAT THIS MINOR
DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN IL THIS
AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 00Z MODEL OUTPUT SHOWED. EXPECT SNOW OCCURING
UPSTREAM TO SPREAD ACROSS TERMINALS MID-LATE MORNING BUT DECREASING
IN INTENSITY. LIGHT SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON AS MINOR WAVE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
INVERSION TONIGHT SO EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING BASE OF INVERSION AROUND 3000FT AGL.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KMKE WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI BY 00Z TUE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN W TO WSW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THRUOUGH THE PERIOD.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
313 AM CST MON FEB 26 2007
.DISCUSSION...
THE 1500 METER AGL WIND PLOT SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN SHEBOYGAN AND MILWAUKEE. THE SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER MILWAUKEE AT 08 UTC. THE ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD AT 0601
UTC SHOWS SOME VEERING BELOW 1.2 KILOMETERS. THERE IS STILL SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS THIS CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH. THIS CIRCULATION OR
UPPER AIR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND JOIN THE CIRCULATION OF
A 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. THAT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FROM THE SURFACE TO 1.2
KILOMETER ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY. THIS IS SEEN ON THE LOCAL
WRF ARW MODEL FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT THE SKY TO BE
OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS VERY WET SNOW AND WATER ON THE
GROUND WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE SKY WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF BRING A
500 MB RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY
A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
WESTERN MISSOURI. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. THERE WILL BE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO IOWA. THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SYNOPTIC TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS...
1100 PM CST
SFC LOW OVER SRN WI CONTINUES FILLING AND MOVING TOWARD MIKE
OVERNIGHT. NEW BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING AND IS SWEEPING
EAST THRU COOK CNTY TO NW INDIANA. REMAINDER OF NIGHT SHUD HAVE MORE
MVFR TO VFR VSBY. HOWEVER IFR CIGS ADVECTING ACRS NRN IL FROM IA ON
WEST WINDS WRAPPING AROUND SFC LOW IN SRN WI. HOWEVER CIGS QUITE
VARIABLE FROM IFR TO HIGH MVFR AND DIFFICULT TO COVER ALL BASES OF
CIGS THRU NEXT 24 HRS. HAVE OPTED TO BRING CIGS UP TO MVFR BFR MRNG
AND REMAIN THERE THRU 06Z AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SLOW MOVING
SFC LOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THIS SFC LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ACRS SRN
LK MICH MON MRNG TO SWRN MICH BY EVENING...THEN TO CNTL LOWER MICH
BY 06Z MON NGT. FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PLAGUE TERMINALS
ALTHO VSBY SHUD NOT DROP TO IFR. WEST TO SW WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 12
KTS SHUD PREVAIL THRU 06Z.
RLB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1020 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007
.UPDATE...
TRANQUIL EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS FCST AREA UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. KMQT RADAR SUGGESTS THERE ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES
OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ALL
THERE WILL BE FOR PCPN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF FZDZ
IS THE MAIN FCST ISSUE JUST AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING TO JUST -11C...RAISING
CONCERN FOR FZDZ. MEANWHILE...PIREPS THIS EVENING FROM FLIGHTS OVER
KESC/KIMT INDICATE CLOUD TOPS IN THE 7-8.4KFT RANGE. THIS IS ROUGHLY
SIMILAR TO 18Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING. ACCORDING TO NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS...TEMPS SHOULD BE AS LOW AS -15C WITHIN THAT MOISTURE
DEPTH...AND THAT ACTUALLY MATCHES WELL WITH TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM
KSAW THIS EVENING. 18Z GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TOP OF THE
MOISTURE LAYER OVER THE SCNTRL/SW FCST AREA WILL THIN SOME DURING
THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TAKE MOISTURE DEPTH OUT OF THE
COLDER AIR TO AROUND -10C...SIMILAR TO 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. HOWEVER...
SINCE CIGS IN GENERAL HAVE RISEN DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING
(THERE ARE NO IFR CIGS ACROSS FCST AREA RIGHT NOW)...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY FZDZ MENTION. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ARE SHOWING UP
IN NRN WI AND ADJACENT UPPER MI...SO THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
RADIATION FOG DEVELOP OVER THE SW PART OF FCST AREA WHERE CLOUDS
BREAK FOR A TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL BUMP MINS UP SLIGHTLY IN
MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT SFC DWPT READINGS AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 430 PM EST)...
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SAT...
SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MN INTO LOWER MI...
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS...AND A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WAS A 150KT JET NEAR
200MB MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN
QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SOME OVER
WYOMING AND OTHERS IN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATER
THIS WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE
CWA WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRING PER OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
RADAR LOOP. THESE FLURRIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DYNAMICS AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LAST
NIGHT THERE WERE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN LOWER MI
WITH THE SATURATED LAYER UP TO -14C...IT APPEARS NOW THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH ACTIVATED ICE NUCLEI TO KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW...AS
NOTED BY OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY MVFR-VFR VARIETY...
COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...EXCEPT OVER NE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE DRIER NE FLOW HAS KEPT THEM
AT BAY. DESPITE ALL THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL
MANAGED TO REACH AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.
AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL OVER THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE PLAINS SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OFF TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITS UP NEAR HUDSON BAY AND
IT APPEARS IT WILL NOT BE MOVING ANYTIME SOON....WHICH WILL BE A
FACTOR IN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...
AS THE SAYING GOES...THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN DURING
THIS PERIOD...DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVING FARTHER INLAND. THUS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MN INTO LOWER MI IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK
DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES GOING ACROSS MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH WED MORNING. HAVE EVEN KEPT FLURRY
CHANCES GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON SINCE A STRATUS DECK REMAINS
PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH THE DYNAMICS LEAVING...THE AFTERNOON MAY END
UP MOSTLY DRY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SOME CHANCE POPS LATE
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THESE SINCE THE ADVECTION IS
SLOWER...HOWEVER THE GFS STILL DEPICTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE
ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ALONE
AS THEY SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. COOLEST
READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN LUCE COUNTY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW HOLES IN
THE CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SINCE THE AIRMASS ON WED LOOKS SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY...HAVE
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE TODAYS
READINGS.
LONG TERM(WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW/WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STORM MOVING
FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD
A MORE SRLY LOW TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST
BY 12Z FRI(WRN WI) WHILE THE UKMET IS FARTHEST SOUTH(ERN IA). MDLS
CONSENSUS SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN
GLOBAL WOULD BE OVER NE IA BY 00Z/FRI FAR SW WI BY 12Z AND TOWARD
CNTRL OR NRN LK MI BY 00Z/SAT. WITH THE LOW DEEPENING TO AROUND 980
MB VERY STRONG E OR ENE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SIMILAR TO THE LAST STORM...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL DURING A COUPLE OF SEPARATE SURGES. THE INITIAL BATCH OF
WAA AND STRONG 280K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE IN LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 4 G/KG AVBL. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SNOWFALL AS WITH DRY ERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE INTO E UPPER
MI. THE GOING WATCH WAS DELAYED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. WATCHES WERE ALSO ADDED FOR MOST OF
THE REST OF UPPER MI EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY THU MAY
ONLY FALL INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE CNTRL OR NORTH.
THU NIGHT...
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND EDGES TOWARD THE AREA...VERY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE TROWAL
REGION OF A STRONG OCCLUDED LOW. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARD A COLDER PROFILE WITH THE LOW TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...CANNOT
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER NEAR 800-700 MB
DEPICTED IN THE 06Z GFS AND HINTED AT BY THE ECMWF. SO...MENTION OF
SLEET OVER THE SE WAS RETAINED. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SO...WINTER STORM WATCH WAS POSTED
FOR EXPECTED HAZARDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH LCL VERY LOW VSBYS. GFS/NAM AND THE
NAM SHOW ERLY 950 WINDS AOA 50KT BY 00Z/FRI. GRADIENT SHOULD BE
TIGHT ENOUGH FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC
WITH GUSTS AOA 30KT EXPECTED IN FAVORED EXPOSED LOCATIONS TO EAST
WINDS.
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...IF THE LOW PATH IS NEAR THE UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN
VERIFIES...A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL INTO
N CNTRL UPR MI WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG ENE UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ADDIITONAL HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SAT-TUE...CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -14C SHOULD KEEP
LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW GOING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL TRANSISTION
TO PURE LES AND DIMINISH BY SUN AS AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV APPROACHES
FROM CNTRL CANADA AND HIGH PRES TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN. THE 12Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF BRING A SHRTWV AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON
WITH ADDITIONAL LES POTENTIAL FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS.
UNCERTAINTY...AS EXPECTED...IS HIGH BY TUE BUT MDLS SUGGEST THAT
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR POSSIBILITY OF A CLIPPER OR
WAA -SN DEVELOPING TUE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI AFTN MIZ009-012.
WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WED NIGHT THRU FRI EVENING
MIZ001>005-013-084.
WINTER STORM WATCH THU MORNING THRU FRI EVENING MIZ006-014-085.
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
$$
ROLFSON (UPDATE)
AJ (SHORT TERM)
JLB (LONG TERM)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1233 AM EST MON FEB 26 2007
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NEAR AVP. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS STRAIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AS THE CYCLONE CAUSING THE SNOW IS BEING FOLLOWED UP A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST. DJP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 957 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATION TRENDS WHICH SHOW
STEADIEST SNOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST OF KBGM ATTM WITH MORE
SHOWERY SNOW IN ITS WAKE. HAVE REMOVED MUCH OF THE MENTION OF
SLEET...WITH NONE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN PA
BORDER COUNTIES. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT ACARS
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS NAM/RUC BUFKIT PROFILES. IN ADDITION...HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF FZDZ...AS IN BETWEEN SHSN LATER TONIGHT...THE
SATURATED LAYER SINKS SOMEWHAT TO LIE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE 0 -
-10C ZONE...SUGGESTING FZDZ MAY PROVIDE A VERY LIGHT ICE COATING
OVERNIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 1 INCH. IMPRESSIVE
BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS YIELDED RIMED SNOW CRYSTALS HERE
AT KBGM...SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE LIFT IS BELOW THE BEST
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS..EVEN WITH THE MODELS GIVING US PRETTY
DECENT QPF OVERNIGHT...BELIEVE SNOW PRODUCTION WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT AND THEREFORE ACCUMS WILL SUFFER AS A
RESULT. A GENERAL 1-3 LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME 4 INCH AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
SULLIVAN/PIKE COUNTIES. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS
IS...AS THE AREA IT COVERS HAS THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOME
MIX...AND WILL ALSO BE THE CLOSEST TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW THAT
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THAT LOW FAILS TO
SEND APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED.
UPDATED CURRENT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AS WELL. -JMA
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 747 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT BAND OF LGT/MOD SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA ATTM. WILL UP POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO
CATEGORICAL WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO
ELIMINATED THE CHC FOR IP OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
ACARS SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH RUC SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO
ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THE COLUMN. AM THINKING THAT IP/ZR CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AS WELL...BUT THE BEST
CHC FOR A MIX REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. ALSO...AS THE PCP BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY LATER...FZDZ IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN SHOWERS OF
SN/IP...BUT NO MORE THAN A VERY LIGHT GLAZE IS EXPECTED. -JMA
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 700 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007/
AVIATION /260000Z - 270000Z/...
FOR KSYR AND KRME...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. WE EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY
AFTER 04Z AT KSYR...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KRME.
ONCE SNOW STARTS...IT WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE TIME...RIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...WITH PREVALENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA (KELM...KITH...KBGM...AND
KAVP)...IT WILL SNOW MUCH OF THE TIME...RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR EXPECTED (UNDER 1 MILE
VISIBILITY). THE SNOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL STILL LIKELY
BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PERIODIC IFR. -MJ
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 214 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVG UPR LOW OVER THE GTLAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT OVER
THE NXT 46-60 HRS. 2NDRY LOW DVLPS OVR THE MID ATLC CST TNGT, WITH
A SURGE OF PCPN XPCTD TO WORK NWD INTO NE PA, WITH HEAVIEST PCPN
SCRAPING OUR FAR SE ZONES. MDLS SUGGEST A WEAK SFC WAVE
TRANSLATING EWD ACRS CNTRL NY ON MONDAY. LEADING EDGE OF PCPN HAS
HAD A HARD TIME MOVG NEWD DUE TO LOW LVL DRY AIR, WITH A "SPLIT"
IN THE MAIN PCPN AREA OVER WRN PA. HOWEVER, XPCT THIS AREA TO FILL
IN LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG.
FAIRLY COMPLEX WX SCENARIO UNFOLDING FOR TNGT WITH MAIN CONCERNS
PCPN TYPE AND AMTS ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND NE PA, AND ALSO THE
NWD PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. GFS CLEARLY SHOWS THE BEST POTNL FOR
FZRA OVER THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND NE PA. LOCAL WRF MDL PROFILES MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE NAM PROFILES, WHICH SUGGEST SNOW AND SOME
SLEET...MAYBE SOME -FZRA ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA. WE ARE LEANING TWDS
THE COLDER SOLUTION, BUT EVNG CREW WILL HAVE TO MONITOR, AS FZRA
WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR THE CNTRL SRN TIER.
SNOW ACCUMS ARE NOT XPCTD TO REACH ADVISORY LVLS ACRS THIS AREA.
LATEST TRENDS ALSO INDICATE THE ADVISORY FOR NE PA MAY NOT PAN OUT
WITH MAIN PCPN SHIELD ASSCD WITH MID ATLC 2NDRY LOW REMAINING TO
OUR SE. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH ADVISORY FOR 2-5 INCHES (BEST
ACCUMS ACRS SRN SXNS OF THESE COUNTIES) AND MIX WITH SLEET, AND
ADD SULLIVAN COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY. BEST POTNL FOR ADVISORY SNOW
ACCUMS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A MSV-AVP LINE. FAR SRN
LUZERNE AND PIKE COUNTIES MIGHT SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC FOR SOME
-FZRA LATE TNGT. WE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR NRN ZONES (ONEIDA COUNTY)
AS MDLS NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD WILL REACH
THIS AREA.
WE WENT WITH CAT POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TMRW, GIVEN THE
SHEARED-OUT VORT LOBE AND WEAK SFC WAVE/TROF. PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE
SNOW, BUT SOME PROFILES FOR NE PA INDICATES POTNL FOR -FZDZ IN THE
MRNG. CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO TUES WITH PDS OF LGT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS, WITH ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES PSBL IN ANY 12-HR
PD, PRIMARILY ACRS UPSTATE NY. ACTIVITY NOT XPCTD TO BE AS WDSPRD
ON TUES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SPARK SOME LE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
LACKING AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW DIVES INTO MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING H5 RIDGE AND DRYING CONDS TO CWA THRU THE DAY.
YET ANOTHER SFC SYSTEM DEVELOPS WITH SFC WARM FRONT AND WAA GIVING
QUICK SHOT OF PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF ADVERTISES THIS SYSTEM
GOING WELL TO OUR WEST AS WAS THE CASE FOR THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. GFS
ALSO SHOWS THIS SOLN WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST. HAVE FOLLOWED ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A TAD EACH DAY GIVEN PRIOR HISTORY TO THESE SYSTEMS TO
HAVE A TOUCH COLDER AIR THAN EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED FOR A SLOWER/MORE
AMPLIFIED SCENARIO IN EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH UL LOW REMAINING OVER
CENTER OF NATION UNTIL NEXT KICKER DROPS DOWN INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
HIGH OVC DECK ARND 20KFT WILL GAVE WAY TO LOWERING CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FOUR SRN TERMINALS TO SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN BTWN 21Z-23Z WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE 2500FT. BY 00Z KELM/KAVP/KBGM WILL SEE 2SM
VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW...SPREADING TO KITH BY 02Z. VISIBILITIES WILL
OCNLY BE REDUCED TO BLO 1SM DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AT KELM...COULD SEE SNOW MIXING WITH -FZRA BTWN 04Z-08Z AND WITH
SLEET AT KAVP BTWN 07Z-11Z.
FURTHER NORTH AT KSYR/KRME...SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LEAST LIKELY SITE WILL BE KRME WITH VSBYS RESTRICTED TO
4SM ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF KRME WILL SEE
CIGS DROP BLO 1KFT AS LOW PRESSURE CTR APPROACHES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ062.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ044-047-048-072.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
845 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF ECHOES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON REGIONAL RADARS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER
NOT A LOT OF THIS PRECIP BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE QUITE YET...
WITH KABR/KOAX RAOBS AND RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KSUX ALL
SHOWING DEEP DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600-875MB. QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL
LIFT MOVING INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. INITIAL LIFT WILL HAVE
TO WORK TOWARD SATURATION...BUT QUICK RAMP-UP/EXPANSION OF POPS IN
06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME STILL LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP LOOKS LIKE THE CORRECT CHOICE FOR MISSOURI RIVER AREA AS
WELL...WITH KSUX TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARM LAYER AT ZERO TO +1C
AT 850MB. 00Z NAM LOOKS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS AREA PRETTY WELL...
BUT NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH ON THE BACK SIDE WHERE 00HR 850MB TEMPS AT
KUNR/KLBF ARE 2-3C TOO WARM. WILL TAKE A LITTLE CLOSER LOOK BEFORE
MAKING ANY CHANGES...BUT MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS EARLIER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
AREAS WHERE THEY DID NOT WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
THOUGH...AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS IDEA WELL HANDLED. NO UPDATES
TO ZFP NEEDED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY NEED TO
BRIEFLY MENTION SOME SLEET IN FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 06Z. UPDATED
GRIDS/PFM HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KHON/KFSD/KSUX AREAS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT INCREASES AND HELPS SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE BENEATH QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL FRONT. PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT KHON/KFSD AFTER 11Z...WITH VSBYS
ARND 1/2SM LKLY AT KHON 11Z-14Z...AND KFSD FROM 12Z-16Z. WARMER AIR
ALFT SHUD BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...INCLDUING
ARND KSUX AND TWB302...WITH ICING CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY FROM
11Z-17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
APOLOGIES FOR THE VERY LONG HEADLINE CODE BELOW...ONE OF THE HAZARDS
OF DEALING WITH TWO STORM EVENTS IN THE SHORTER TERM. FOR TONIGHT
AND WED MORNING...AM ANTICIPATING SOME STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER EVENING OR MIDNIGHT AS THE SE WINDS INCREASE. WE ARE STILL ON
TARGET WITH A TON OF WAA MOVG INTO THE FA LATER TONIGHT AND WED
ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W. A NW TO SE BAND OF SNOW WL DEVELOP ALONG A
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL FRONT. ONE
CAN ALREADY SEE ECHOES DEVELOPING IN WRN SD...WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT PLACES SUCH AS RAPID CITY AND CUSTER. THIS BAND IS
BEGINNING TO TIE INTO SOME LIGHT ECHOES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEB...
HOWEVER THE LOW LVLS ARE INTIALLY DRY IN OUR CWFA. IN ADDITION...WE
ARE UNSTABLE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH THIS WAVE. ABOVE THE MAX
FRONTOGENESIS AREA IS QUITE AN UNSTABLE AREA OF NEG EPV*. SOME LTG
IS NOTED ATTM IN ERN WY. SO THOUGHTS ARE...THAT THE SNOW BAND COULD
POUND PRETTY GOOD AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE FA...ESP SINCE WE DO
HAVE SOME DENDRITICITY TO WORK WITH. NAM THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW A
MIX OF PCPN IN THE FAR SRN CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND WED...EVEN AFTER
SUBTRACTING OFF 1 TO 2 DEGS CELSIUS OFF OF THE USUALLY TOO WARM NAM
WARM PROFILE. THEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVY FOR MIXED PCPN FM
KYKN TO KSLB. SNOW ADVYS OR WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE WARRANTED
NORTH OF THERE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA FOR THE BAND OF SNOW.
LEFT THE SW CWFA FREE OF HEADLINES AS FOR NOW...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DYNAMICS WL LIFT TOO FAR NEWD TOO FAST WED MORNING...LEAVING THAT
AREA DRY BY AFTERNOON.
BY WED AFTERNOON...NOT A HUGE REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED DUE TO
LOW CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND. LIGHT SNOW WL STILL BE LIKELY IN OUR
NE SECTOR WHERE MSTR REMAINS THE DEEPEST. HOWEVER MOVG SW OF THERE...
DRY AIR BEGINS TO POUR INTO THE MID LVLS. SO...IF ANY PCPN HAPPENS
WED AFTERNOON IN AREAS W OF SW MN...IT SHOULD BE DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. BUT WOULD BE EXTREMELY LIGHT.
NEXT VERY STRONG SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NEWD ON THU INTO THE ERN PLAINS.
OUR FAR SERN CWFA IN NW IA GETS SCRAPED BY SOME LOW TO MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING THE STRONG QPF IN
THAT AREA WED NIGHT PER THE GFS...AS THE GFS DEVELOPS A CONVECTIVE
LOOKING S/W NEAR SPENCER IA. MID LVLS PER BOTH MODELS ARE STILL
RATHER DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA...SO BELIEVE ONLY VERY LIGHT PCPN IS
WARRANTED OVER OUR NE HALF. THEN AS MENTIONED...THE STRONG UPPER
WAVE THEN LIFTS NEWD FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ERN PLAINS WHERE IT
BOMBS. VERY WINDY CONDS WILL PREVAIL...ESP BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR ERN FA BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. TROWALING IS STILL EVIDENT ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT IN ERN SD
KEEPING THINGS STIRRED UP IN THIS AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE
WINTER STORM WATCH WWD FM ABOUT SIOUX FALLS TO BROOKINGS ON FUTURE
SHIFTS BECAUSE THE WIND IS SO STRONG. BUT WERE STILL EXPECTING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN OUR FAR ERN CWFA ON
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY THU EVENING WHEN THE MID TO UPPER LOW IN IN NRN
IA.
IN THE EXTENDED...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 925 MB GRADUALLY DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT WOULD NOT EXPECT FLURRIES TO LAST BEYOND MIDDAY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON. EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CONSERVATIVE HIGHS DESPITE 925
MB RISING TO NEAR 0 C. WARMING TREND DOESN/T LAST TOO LONG
THOUGH...AS ARCTIC PUSH WORKS INTO UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM SOME OVER MONDAY/S COOL READINGS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ001-012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ020-031.
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ002-003-013-014.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-022-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ021-022-032.
MN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ098.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
SD...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ052-053-
059>062-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ065-068>071.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ040-
056.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ038-039-054-055.
&&
$$
JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
420 AM EST MON FEB 26 2007
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A MIDLEVEL
INVERSION IS RESULTING IN A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD DECK IS NOT VERY
THICK...ABOUT 1000-1500 FEET. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME MIDLEVEL DRY
ADVECTION WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE...SO EXPECT
THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE AROUND THAT TIME. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL US ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET
AND SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON...GIVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE VORT AXIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT PRODUCES NO LIFT...AND
MOISTURE IS LACKING OUTSIDE OF A THIN MIDLEVEL LAYER. WILL REMOVE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONT
APPROACHES ON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES IN WITH
IT. 50-6KT LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. FRONT LINGERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH MOISTURE DECREASING BEHIND IT. WITH UPPER LOW NEARBY...WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.
UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY DRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL KEEP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 37 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 35 60 33 62 / 0 10 0 0 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 56 34 58 32 61 / 0 10 0 0 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 32 57 30 59 / 0 10 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/GH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
910 PM PST SUN FEB 25 2007
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BRINGING COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE THREAT
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DE-JA-VU. THINGS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO WHEN I WAS
WRITING THE DISCUSSION 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWERS ROLLING NORTH UP
THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON
THE IR IMAGERY OFFSHORE...THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND INTO
OREGON. THIS FEATURE ROTATING NORTHWARD WHICH WILL HOLD THE SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. SHOWER WORDING
PRETTY MUCH BLANKETED ACROSS THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SO WE ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH THAT. RATHER WARM AT THE MOMENT WITH A FREEZING
LEVEL UP AROUND 3300 FEET OVER THE SOUND ACCORDING TO ACARS AND
AROUND 2900 FEET OVER KUIL...THEREFORE NEARLY ALL THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS. BUT WITH SOME COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE A BIT OF WET SNOW MIXED IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT ANY ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONTINUING AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOLER
OVERALL. THE SNOW WORD IS ALREADY SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
THOSE TIME PERIODS SO THAT ALSO LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH ELSE TO DEAL
WITH AT THE MOMENT. CERNIGLIA
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A DRYING TREND NOTED IN 18Z
RUN OF GFS AFTER LAST TROUGH EXITS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR SO.
THIS COULD MEAN A RELATIVELY DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN COOL
DRY NW FLOW. FORECAST STILL HAS HIGH POPS AS CONFIDENCE LOW. RAIN
DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS SUNDAY. SHOULD BE WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS GETTING
INTO THE LOW 50S...WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. BURKE
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE
LOW INTO OREGON...THEN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT...CEILINGS BETWEEN 3500 TO
5000 FEET LOWERING TO NEAR 2000 FEET WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
.KSEA...MOSTLY BROKEN LAYER 3500 TO 4500 FEET WITH ANOTHER LAYER
6000 TO 8000 FEET. CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR 2000 FEET WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FELTON
$$
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS STORM WILL BE MUCH LIKE THOSE OF THE 23-25FEB07
WEEKEND STORM. THEREFORE...FOCUS WAS CENTERED ON POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
MEDIA PARTNERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND AVIATION INTERESTS ARE
ADVISED TO ESPECIALLY KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION VIA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PART OF WI AND INTO NORTHERN MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED
VIGOROUS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER AIR
AND ACARS DATA INDICATED STRONG 300MB JET STREAM OF 120-150KT
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EVIDENT OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CONFIRMED BY COMMA SHAPE CLOUD IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
12Z 27FEB07 SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WERE INITIALIZED WELL.
CLUSTER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK
FROM OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND NAM/WRF SUPPORTED A TRACK
FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN GFS ENSEMBLES...WHICH STILL LENDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH LOW TRACK VERIFIES...CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINTER STORM WATCH WAS
EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER INTO CENTRAL WI...AS WELL AS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA.
IN SPITE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TRACK OF SYSTEM...
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SNOW RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE...A WINTRY MIX APPEARS
PROBABLE...WITH EVEN ALL RAIN FOR A TIME IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS SHOULD CUT OFF...AS MORE ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RESULT SHOULD BE A
BROAD AND EXPANDING SHIELD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE FUELED BY STRONG
850MB JET OF 50KTS...WHICH BRINGS 3-4G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES
NORTHWARD. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280K-290K LAYER SUPPORTS BURSTS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.
EXACT DETAILS OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE AND THUS
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK BASED ON
VARIABILITY IN MODELS TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. GFS STILL SUPPORTS MORE
SNOW...WHILE NAM/WRF SUGGESTS MORE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL.
AT THIS TIME...INCORPORATED A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DEPICT ALL RAIN IN SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR NOSING IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ROUND TWO OF THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT SHOULD MANIFEST ITSELF...AS MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM BRINGS
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. TROWAL SIGNATURE REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE...AS DOES AN INCREDIBLY CONSISTENT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SIGNAL ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED 300MB JET. DEEP LAYERED Q-G
CONVERGENCE ALSO SUGGESTS DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT A BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. CATEGORICAL VALUES
OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY MAINTAINED IN CURRENT DATA BASE ON
THURSDAY AND EXPANDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SNOW SHOULD BE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE IN EAST AND SOUTH
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED A RAIN OR
SNOW SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI. AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND DEPARTING STORM THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN FACT...MODEL
PROJECTION OF DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE RIDGETOPS OF
SOUTHWEST WI. INCORPORATED THESE WIND GUSTS INTO CURRENT DATA BASE.
THESE WIND SPEEDS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE HEAVY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL EXISTS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN
THE SHORT TERM...DAYS 6-7...WERE GIVEN A LOW PRIORITY. HOWEVER...
CURSORY LOOK AT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATED SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS...WHICH COULD AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER...
SPECIFICALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BESIDES CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING ON SATURDAY IN AFTERMATH
OF DEPARTING STORM...GFS INDICATED ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...ECMWF HAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL DIFFERENCES LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THUS FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINED DRY
WEATHER AS IN CURRENT DATA BASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ088-MNZ095-MNZ096.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ094.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ018-IAZ019.
&&
$$
THOMPSON
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