AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN MOVED IN ON SCHEDULE. DID HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EARLY
OVER SOUTHERN NJ AND SE PA. COULD HAVE SOME MORE WITHIN THE NEXT
4 TO 6 HOURS. MODELS ARE MOVING THE HEAVY RAIN RAPIDLY OUT OF OUR
AREA BY MIDDAY...SO WILL CUT BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE FLOOD
WATCH TO 1 PM. IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SNOW PACK...
MAINLY POCONOS...ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM BREAKUPS
COULD CAUSE FLOODING LATER IN THE DAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT, IF
IT OCCURS WITH WARNINGS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO FAR, MAY BE PUSHING
ONE INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE ONLY AREA WARNED ATTM IS CHESTER
COUNTY IN PA...THE BRANDYWINE CREEK IN PARTICULAR. WITH THE MILD
AIR STREAMING INTO OUR AREA...WE HAVE LET OUR ADVISORY EXPIRE IN
THE NORTH. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, MOST READINGS HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE THAT
MARK. AND WHERE THEY ARE STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW, THEY SHOULD
RISE ABOVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA, RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRECEED
AND ACCOMPANY THIS COLD PUSH. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW SCATTERED
TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
INCREASES. AFTER ALL, THIS IS MARCH. A NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EAST COAST TROUGH HANGS AROUND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. ANOTHER, EVEN COLDER, SURGE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LATER IN PERIOD, THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL, BRINGING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AT 1230 AM, CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCHING LIFR. VSBYS WERE GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
MOS GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE WELL THE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PUSH OF
COASTAL FRONT...WITH SSE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NE
WINDS TO THE NORTH. 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PLAYED UP THIS WIND DIRECTION
DIFFERENCE AND BROUGHT COASTAL FRONT UP INTO VICINITY OF I95
CORRIDOR AIRPORTS (ILG...PHL...PNE...TTN).
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FROM NOW UNTIL AROUND 9:00 AM.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH MOST OF THAT PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SECTOR NORTH AND WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT. FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WE`VE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
(CB) TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG WITH THE
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR
REGION...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST ACARS DATA FROM PHL. MOVED
START TIME OF LLWS IN THE TAFS SOONER BY ABOUT AN HOUR BASED ON
ACARS DATA.
06Z NAM MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...EXPECTED NOW 16Z TO 19Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO WEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HEADLINES CONTINUE. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND
TIMING. SE FLOW OVER COLD WATER HAVING TROUBLE REACHING SPEEDS
ADVERTISED IN MODELS...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS.
NEW WAVEWATCH SUPPORTS PREVIOUS SEAS FORECAST SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THAT AREA EITHER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GALES WOULD HOLD
ON A BIT LONGER NORTH THAN SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST, AND
WE ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
&&
TIDES...
HAVE DROPPED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ATLANTIC COAST SECTIONS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AS WELL AS FOR MARYLAND PORTION OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. DEPARTURES ARE NOT RUNNING AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. HAVE LEFT ADVISORY UP FOR TIDAL DELAWARE AREA AS
STRONG SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO PUSH WATER UP INTO
THAT REGION AND ACHIEVE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS DURING HIGH
TIDE LATER TODAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-015-017>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016>019-021.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...GSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007
.UPDATE...
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
AT 1230 AM, CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCHING LIFR. VSBYS WERE GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
MOS GUIDANCE DID NOT CAPTURE WELL THE DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND PUSH OF
COASTAL FRONT...WITH SSE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NE
WINDS TO THE NORTH. 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PLAYED UP THIS WIND DIRECTION
DIFFERENCE AND BROUGHT COASTAL FRONT UP INTO VICINITY OF I95
CORRIDOR AIRPORTS (ILG...PHL...PNE...TTN).
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FROM NOW UNTIL AROUND 9:00
AM. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH MOST OF THAT PERIOD. FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WE`VE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS (CB) TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG WITH
THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET
OVER OUR REGION...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST ACARS DATA FROM
PHL. MOVED START TIME OF LLWS IN THE TAFS SOONER BY ABOUT AN HOUR
BASED ON ACARS DATA.
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IN 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND GUST TO 25 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REFLECTED IN TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 952 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007/
THE PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN REISSUED TO INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CARBON, MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES OF NEW JERSEY. WE HAVE
RECEIVED A FEW CALLS FROM SPOTTERS WITH REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THE WSW WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM...
BY THEN THE WARMER AIR WILL HAVE CAUSED THE MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE
TO ALL RAIN. AFTER THAT... THE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WORDING WILL
REMAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN ALL AREAS AND THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE REMAINDER OF OUR WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 650 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007/
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...
AT 6:45 PM, CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH MAINLY
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AT OUR EIGHT TAF SITES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN WAS ALREADY UP INTO EASTERN MARYLAND. AS A RESULT, WE`LL
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9:00
AM. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH MOST OF THAT PERIOD. FOR THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, WE`VE ALSO KEPT THE
MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS (CB) TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUR REGION. DURING THE HOURS RIGHT
AROUND DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE WITHIN 2000 FEET OF THE SURFACE AND SO
THE LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF
AROUND MID MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BEFORE RAPID
CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 329 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST COAST TROUGH HANGS AROUND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED.
LATER IN PERIOD FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. DRY QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MARINE...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE SCA HEADLINE AND GONE TO STRAIGHT GALES. THE WRF
IS LESS EMPHATIC ABOUT GALE FORCE WINDS/GUST OVER THE NRN WATERS
THAN THE GFS; THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
WE ARE LOOKING AT A SERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATER. HOWEVER, WE THINK
WE`LL GET TO GALES REGARDING GUSTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD WAVEWATCH
REGARDING THE SEAS, WHICH MEANS WE UPPED THEM A LTL IN THE
PRE-SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GALES WOULD HOLD ON A
BIT LONGER NORTH THAN SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST, AND WE
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WITH QPF IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL WILL BE QUICK SHOT WITH THE
BULK OF IT FALLING IN A 6 TO 12 HOUR TIME FRAME. LOCAL PROCEDURES
SHOW SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
REACHING MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS WITH THESE AMOUNTS. LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. AT PRESENT THE LARGE MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE
SCHUYLKILL...LEHIGH AND DELAWARE WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKS
RISES BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED.
TIDES...
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING ABOVE THE
SSE AND BELOW THE ECS GUIDANCE. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WOULD
HAVE AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG OUR MOST FLOOD-PRONE
LOCATIONS. THE CBOFS FORECAST FOR CAMBRIDGE IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE FORECAST FOR TOLCHESTER HAS BEEN TAKING IT ABOVE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR THE PAST TWO RUNS. HIGH TIDES OCCUR A FEW
HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK ON THE CHESAPEAKE, EARLIER SOUTH
THAN NORTH, AND THIS PUTS IT IN THE WINDOW FOR AN ADVISORY. ONE HAS
BEEN ISSUED. ELSEWHERE, HIGH TIDES OCCUR FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE LATE
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS, ADJACENT BACK BAYS,
RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE BAY. THESE ARE BEYOND THE ADVISORY WINDOW
AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR THEM. WE ALSO HAVE INCLUDED THE
TIDAL DELAWARE IN THAT SPS BECAUSE OF INDICATIONS FROM THE SSE, EVEN
THOUGH HIGH TIDES THERE RUN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WHEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PAST US.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
067>071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-
071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
062.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015-
017>019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ016>019-021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001-
002.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-
012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PO/SZATKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1045 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007
.UPDATE...FCST UPDATE IS FINALLY OUT. DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE ENTIRE
CWA TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND THE END TIME TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
DRY SLOT HAS PUSHED NORTH TO THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...CAUSING THE
PCPN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT POCKETS
OF SNOW ARE STILL FEEDING INTO FAR NE WI...BUT DON`T EXPECT ADDL ACCUMS
TO TOP 2 INCHES THERE. FARTHER SOUTH...PCPN HAS TAPERED OFF TO OCNL
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE FOX VALLEY
AND LKSHR AREAS. FELT THAT COMBINATION OF ADDL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY TONIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR NE IA...WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT A STEADY LIGHT SNOW
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER 2-3 INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WITH LOCAL 4 INCH AMOUNTS BY EVG.
GIVEN THE ADDL ACCUMULATION...FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...ALTHOUGH
OCNL GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. OVERALL...EXPECT
THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE...SO ANY THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
KIECKBUSCH
REST OF DISCUSSION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE
OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING MODERATE PCPN ACROSS CENTRAL WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN A VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES AS THIS AREA OF PCPN MOVES
NORTH INTO THE REGION. FARTHER TO THE S IN SRN WI...PCPN STARTED AS
RAIN. AS IT MOVED FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOVED INTO THE COLDER AIR...
BEGAN TO SEE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS QUICKLY RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. PRESENTLY SEE SOME SNOW AND SLEET REPORTS AROUND
MARSHFIELD...CLINTONVILLE...AND OSHKOSH. SPOTTERS IN THESE LOCATIONS
REPORTED INITIAL RAIN BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR SLEET.
PRETTY CONFIDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THIS CHANGE OVER...WITH 20Z CWA
TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWING LIMITED WARM AIR ALOFT...WITH VALUES ONLY RISING
TO 0.5C AT 825MB AND PLENTY OF BELOW FREEZING AIR BELOW THAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO ADD A LITTLE MORE FREEZING RAIN TO
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BEFORE TRANSITIONING IT TO ALL SNOW.
EXPECT THE PCPN INTENSITY TO CONTINUE AS THIS WAVE PUSHES NORTH ACROSS
NE WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. VERY GOOD LIFT SEEN WITH THIS STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A NW TO SE LINE ACROSS WI. WITH BEST
OMEGA AND FRONTOGENIC FORCING IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...EXPECT THE
EXISTING FORECAST OF HEAVY SNOW OVER FAR NE WI AND ACROSS NRN WI TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. SREF...NAM...AND GFS SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW IN THIS REGION...
WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES AN HOUR SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WI AND
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST...BUT HAVE LEFT IT MAINLY INTACT.
BEHIND THE SURGE OF PCPN THIS EVENING...MID LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE DRY
SLOT PUSHES ACROSS NE WI. EXPECT THIS TO DECREASE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. THINK ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH WEAKER FRONTOGENIC FORCING AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE...ONLY BELIEVE AND INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
BELIEVE STILL COULD SEE ANOTHER 2-4 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AN ADDITIONAL 6 HOURS TO
COMPENSATE FOR THAT SNOWFALL. ALSO...LEFT THE EXISTING MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER EAST CENTRAL WI AS MOISTURE LAYER IS BELOW 10KFT
AND SNOW GROWTH REGION IS AT THE VERY TOP OF THIS LAYER. WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NC WI...BELIEVE THAT PCPN WILL BE MAINLY SNOW.
.LONG TERM...FRI NGT THRU NXT THU. A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MEAN
FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK WHICH
WL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES
AS TO BOTH THE SPD OF THIS WARM-UP AND THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWVS RACING THRU THE MEAN FLOW FOR ANY PCPN CHCS WED OR THU.
INITIAL SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS E-NE INTO N-CNTRL LWR MI FRI NGT AND HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE NAM/NGM/CANADIAN. NE WI TO GET
INTO THE COLD CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE STORM WITH WNDS BACKING NORTH AND CAA
DEVELOPING ESP LTR FRI NGT. EXPECT LGT SNOW TO PERSIST AS VARIOUS
SHRTWVS ROTATE AROUND THE UPR LOW AND TRAILING DEFORMATION ZN STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE RGN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS PSBL AND WITH WNDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE NGT...SOME
DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED. WL CON TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUID FOR MIN TEMPS
AS COLDER AIR JUST PUSHING INTO WI BY 12Z SAT.
EVEN AS THE STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NE INTO SRN QUEBEC ON
SAT...INITIAL CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SCT LGT SNOW SHWRS GOING ACROSS NE
WI DURING THE MORNING HRS. AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SNOW SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT FLURRIES. AN EXCEPTION
TO THIS WL BE OVR VILAS CNTY WHERE NW WNDS AND COLD AIR MOVG OVR LK
SUPERIOR WL GENERATE ALL SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND CLD
CVR SHOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS...THUS HAVE KEPT READINGS
TOWARD THE COOLER GUID VALUES. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LGT SNOW SHWRS
OR FLURRIES ACROSS N-CNTRL WI SAT NGT...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WL
QUIET DOWN WEATHER-WISE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS AND DIMINISHING WNDS WL
BRING A COLD NGT TO THE RGN. PREFER THE COOLER GUID VALUES WHICH MATCHES
WHAT THE PREV SHIFT ALREADY HAD.
AN UPR RDG OVR THE ROCKIES AND AN UPR TROF OVR THE ERN U.S. PLACES NE WI
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. NO REAL WEATHER FEATURES (EITHER A THE SFC
OR ALOFT) TO DEAL WITH...THUS WL KEEP SUNDAY DRY. COLD START TO THE DAY
WL OFFSET THE EXPECTED MIXED SUNSHINE AND PREFER TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGS BLO THE MEX GUID. AS A STG UPR TROF/SHRWTV DIGS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO
SUNDAY NGT...A CDFNT IS FCST TO DROP THRU WI. WHILE THE BETTER UPR
DYNAMICS WL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA
BEHIND THE FNT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LGT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES. THE MORE PREVALENT SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST OVR N-CNTRL WI WHERE NW
WNDS WL COMBINE WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND -20C TO PRODUCE LK EFFECT SNOW.
THIS LK EFFECT POTENTIAL WL THEN CARRY OVR INTO MON AS TRAJS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. THE REST OF NE WI SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MON WITH
TEMPS ABT 3 TO 5 DEGS BLO NORMAL.
LRG CANADIAN HI PRES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LKS RGN MON NGT INTO TUE.
WHILE NW WNDS TO PERSIST INTO MON EVENING...WNDS EXPECTED TO BE BACKING
MORE EAST MON NGT. DO NOT SEE ENUF OF A FETCH TO WARRANT ANY LK EFFECT
SNOW AND WL KEEP FCST DRY. WE SHOULD SEE CLDS THICKEN ON TUE AS WARMER
AIR OVR THE PLAINS BEGINS TO MAKE A MOV TO THE EAST. THE FCST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK IS QUITE MUDDLED AS THE MEAN FLOW TURNS ZONAL ACROSS
THE LWR 48. DIFFICULT TO TIME WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU THIS FAST FLOW...
AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA AND AMT OF MSTR PRESENT. WHILE SOME
KIND OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FCSTS...PREFER TO WAIT AND TRY TO
PIN DOWN A TIME FRAME. MDLS ARE ALL OVR THE PLACE WHICH DOES NOT HELP
MUCH. THEREFORE...WL LEAVE WED AND THU DRY FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT BEING
THAT THIS IS A SHAKY DRY FCST.
AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ICING EARLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY
WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050-
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074-
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY
|