AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST MON MAR 5 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER MID WEEK WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND SOME
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH ABOUT 3 MBS OFFSHORE BETWEEK KTPH
AND KSAN AND 1.5 MBS OFFSHORE BETWEEN KIPL AND KSAN. TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COAST IS WEAKING AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
HAS MOVED TO OFF THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS BRINGING SOME COOLING ALONG WITH
A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE THIS
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS
RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING ALONG WITH A WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
052100Z...ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS WILL FOG DEVELOP THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS/IMMEDIATE COAST. DEWPOINTS
ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SHOW BIG JUMPS ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THERE IS 25-30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WATER AND A FEW MILES INLAND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE
SEA BREEZE THROUGH AT LEAST 1600 PST/0000 UTC BUT INLAND PROGRESS
AND VERTICAL EXTENT OF MARINE AIR WILL BE LIMITED. ACARS AND
FOOTHILL/MOUNTAIN OBSERVATIONS SHOW THERE ARE STILL EAST WINDS 10-15
KT BETWEEN FL015-FL050. ASSUMING THE DEWPOINTS DO MAKE IT INTO THE
50S BELOW FL007 THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO LEAD TO SATURATION AS OPAQUE ALTO/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 2200 PST/0600 UTC. FINALLY
IF FOG DOES FORM IT SHOULD NOT LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS AS AFTER 0400 PST/1200 UTC...WEAK EASTERLY LAND
BREEZES EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND ERODE/PUSH ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP BACK OFFSHORE.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HORTON
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
214 AM CST SUN MAR 4 2007
.DAYS 1-2...
UPPER RIDGE REMIAINS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST AND BACKING WINDS WILL
ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
PROGGING 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 8-12C BY 00Z TUESDAY AND WITH THIS IN
MIND CURRENTLY SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY...MINUS NEAR THE SNOWPACK. OVERALL THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE
50S TODAY AND 60S ON MONDAY.
.DAYS 3-7...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONSET OF OUR NEXT SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME DISORGANIZED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY.
THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT DOWNSLOPING WINDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARMER
ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER FOR FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ONSET OF
DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THEN EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AT ABOUT
15KTS AFTER 15Z.
THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT TO AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AS VFR VSBYS AND
UNLIMITED CEILING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 25 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 55 25 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 55 30 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 57 27 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 54 23 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
P28 58 27 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN18/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2007
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ELONGATING FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PLAINS. ACARS 400-250MB WIND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 160-190KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET FROM THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. A 1034MB
ANTICYCLONE DOMINATED TEXAS AND THE PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
HAVE ALLOWED THE SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO EXPIRE. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH A LOSS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z KIAD RAOB AND MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SEVERAL INVERSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WHICH HAS TRAPPED
STRATO-CU EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE MID MORNING MIXING MAY
PRODUCE A FEW MORE CUMULUS...EXPECT THE SEE A DRYING TREND PROGRESS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE WANES TO THE
WEST.
MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO FAIRLY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH WARMING DURING THE DAY...INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 25-30KT WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN AS WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN STEM FORECAST POINTS ARE ALL UNDER FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS UNDER SCT-BKN CUMULUS.
&&
.MARINE...
00Z ETA/06Z GFS MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20KT TODAY. 06Z NAM/GFS PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 KNOTS TODAY.
&&
.TIDES...
CURRENT TIDAL DEPARTURES LESS THAN A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
PREDICTIONS. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS AT A FULL MOON (100 PERCENT FULL).
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM INDICATES WATER
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS THROUGH TODAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY/AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...ROGOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
120 PM EST MON MAR 5 2007
.SHORT TERM UPADTE(THIS AFTERNOON)
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
QUICK UP DATE TO LOWER CHANCES OF SNOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
AND BLOWING SNOW STILL A PROBELM OVER THE SNOWBELT AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES (MFD CAK) SOON.
SOME OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND CLE MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTRN AS
COLDER AIR AT H8 BEGINS TO CROSS THE LAKE BUT THINK THAT SHALLOW
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT YNG FOR LONGER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT AS LAKE HURON ALSO
CONTRIBUTES. LOOKS AS IF FETCH AND TRAJECTORY AS WELL AS ICE COVER
WILL ALSO LIMIT LAKE EFFECT AT ERIE ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE MID/LATE AFTRN. VFR ELSEWHERE AS DRY AND COLD ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. GUSTY WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH BY DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE(THIS AFTERNOON)....
COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. TAMDAR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA... WITH WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ONCE COLD FRONT GOES BY THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-TUESDAY)...
BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT
BUT TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOWERING INVERSION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT SNOW FALL BUT NE OH AND NW PA
SHOULD SEE LOCALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. WINDS PICKING UP EVEN THIS MORNING
WILL BE GUITE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. DONT BELIEVE
WIDESPREAD VSBY 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL OCCUR NEEDED FOR A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW REMOVAL
ESPECIALLY AREAS RECIEVING HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TONIGHT. STILL LOCALLY AN INCH OR 2 NE AREA. TEMPERTURES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES. HAVE WIND CHILL TEMPS NEAR -10
IN E. FEW LINGER SNOW FLURRIES NE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER BEFORE ALBERTA CLIPPER BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A REENFORCEMENT OF
COLD AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CLIPPER SYSTEM TUE NGT INTO WEDNESDAY ROUNDING INTO SHAPE AND
LOOKING HEALTHIER. SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
SYSTEM I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WE CAN GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT TRACK WILL STILL DETERMINE WHO GETS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT DECENT DYNAMICS AND IF
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN A LITTLE BIT UNSTABLE ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME
LOCATIONS WHICH WILL AT LEAST SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OH
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO EVENT. REINFORCING PUSH
OF COLDER AIR BEHIND CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY AND IF THERE IS FRESH SNOW
ON THE GROUND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH SUBREEZING
TEMPS.
RETURN FLOW DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SO
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY TEMPERATURES START TO REALLY REBOUND. GFS
SEEMS A BIT COLD BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN SEEM A BIT TOO WARM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. GFS ENSMEBLE MAX/MIN TEMPS HAVE A HUGE RANGE BY LATE
WEEK AS MODEL STRUGGLES TO PIN DOWN COLD AIR VS WARM AIR SO RATHER
THAN BEING AS WARM AS I WAS YESTERDAY WILL COMPROMISE MORE WITH
COLDER SOLUTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SO IT SEEMS AS IF THE
REAL WARM UP WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ALL
MODELS A BIT FASTER WITH COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY SO THE WARMEST AIR
MAY GET CUT OFF BEFORE REACHING THE FCST AREA BY SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
EVEN BEHIND FRONT THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN SO SHOULD STILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY AT SOME POINT FRI
NGT INTO SATURDAY. BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND A FEW FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS TROUGH
ALOFT EXITS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SCIOTO RIVER AT
PROSPECT.
GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PA...GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EST MON MAR 5 2007
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN MOST TAF SITES (MFD CAK) SOON.
SOME OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND CLE MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTRN AS
COLDER AIR AT H8 BEGINS TO CROSS THE LAKE BUT THINK THAT SHALLOW
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH LAKE EFFECT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT YNG FOR LONGER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT AS LAKE HURON ALSO
CONTRIBUTES. LOOKS AS IF FETCH AND TRAJECTORY AS WELL AS ICE COVER
WILL ALSO LIMIT LAKE EFFECT AT ERIE ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE MID/LATE AFTRN. VFR ELSEWHERE AS DRY AND COLD ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES. GUSTY WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH BY DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE(THIS AFTERNOON)....
COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. TAMDAR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA... WITH WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ONCE COLD FRONT GOES BY THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-TUESDAY)...
BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR FOR THE 1ST PART OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT
BUT TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOWERING INVERSION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT SNOW FALL BUT NE OH AND NW PA
SHOULD SEE LOCALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. WINDS PICKING UP EVEN THIS MORNING
WILL BE GUITE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. DONT BELIEVE
WIDESPREAD VSBY 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL OCCUR NEEDED FOR A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR SNOW REMOVAL
ESPECIALLY AREAS RECIEVING HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TONIGHT. STILL LOCALLY AN INCH OR 2 NE AREA. TEMPERTURES
WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES. HAVE WIND CHILL TEMPS NEAR -10
IN E. FEW LINGER SNOW FLURRIES NE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER BEFORE ALBERTA CLIPPER BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A REENFORCEMENT OF
COLD AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CLIPPER SYSTEM TUE NGT INTO WEDNESDAY ROUNDING INTO SHAPE AND
LOOKING HEALTHIER. SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF
SYSTEM I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WE CAN GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT TRACK WILL STILL DETERMINE WHO GETS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BUT DECENT DYNAMICS AND IF
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN A LITTLE BIT UNSTABLE ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME
LOCATIONS WHICH WILL AT LEAST SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OH
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO EVENT. REINFORCING PUSH
OF COLDER AIR BEHIND CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY AND IF THERE IS FRESH SNOW
ON THE GROUND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH SUBREEZING
TEMPS.
RETURN FLOW DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SO
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY TEMPERATURES START TO REALLY REBOUND. GFS
SEEMS A BIT COLD BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN SEEM A BIT TOO WARM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. GFS ENSMEBLE MAX/MIN TEMPS HAVE A HUGE RANGE BY LATE
WEEK AS MODEL STRUGGLES TO PIN DOWN COLD AIR VS WARM AIR SO RATHER
THAN BEING AS WARM AS I WAS YESTERDAY WILL COMPROMISE MORE WITH
COLDER SOLUTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SO IT SEEMS AS IF THE
REAL WARM UP WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ALL
MODELS A BIT FASTER WITH COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY SO THE WARMEST AIR
MAY GET CUT OFF BEFORE REACHING THE FCST AREA BY SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
EVEN BEHIND FRONT THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN SO SHOULD STILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY SATURDAY. SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY AT SOME POINT FRI
NGT INTO SATURDAY. BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND A FEW FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS TROUGH
ALOFT EXITS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SCIOTO RIVER AT
PROSPECT.
GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PA...GALE WARNING LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
|