Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/10/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST THU MAR 8 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR WITH A LITTLE COOLER DAY FRIDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALLY WINDY THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SLOW COOLING AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)... THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...MANLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDING HAD INCREASING NW WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL. A WEAK SHORT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE WRN SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS. THERE COULD BE DENSE FOG NEAR THE INLAND EDGE OF THE STRATUS AND ON HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HIGH CLOUDS FRI INTO SAT MORNING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. PATCHY...IF ANY...MARINE LAYER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS SUN...MAINLY INLAND. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES...STARTING SAT AND BECOMING STRONGER SUN. LOCAL WINDS COULD GET NEAR ADVISORY STRENGTH IN THE FAVORED AREAS BELOW PASSES IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THE WARM DRY WEATHER AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD SUN TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUN. && .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... CONTINUED WARMING INTO MON UNDER THE HIGH ALOFT WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW RECORD MAX TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN MON AND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MON. GRADUALLY COOLER TUE THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES PAST TO THE N AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REDEVELOP AROUND THU. && AVIATION... 082120Z...STRATUS SHOULD REFORM A BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYER BY 01 OVER WATER...PUSHING INLAND BETWEEN 03Z-06Z TO COASTAL AIRPORTS WITH BASES FL010-FL012 TOPS FL020...REACHING ABOUT 25 MILES INLAND BY 12Z...ERODING AFTER 17Z FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER BASES SHOULD PRECLUDE LOW VISIBILITY PROBLEMS...EXCEPT AT ONTARIO/OTHER INLAND AIRPORTS WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN FL010-FL020. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD SCOUR OUT MARINE LAYER. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...BALFOUR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
355 AM PST THU MAR 8 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST INLAND TO THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. SLOW COOLING AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS THINNED OUT CONSIDERABLY. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY HAS BROUGHT A RETURN OF STRATUS TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST. LATE EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERSION BASE NEAR 1000 FEET. EXPECT STRATUS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE... EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS THE MESAS. A WEAK EDDY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ENOUGH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER TO ALLOW STRATUS TO EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. MOST AREAS SAW SOME COOLING YESTERDAY...GREATEST NEAR THE COAST. COOLING TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL EXTEND FARTHER INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS. MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL SEE ONLY MINOR COOLING. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE BRIEF STRATUS EPISODE WITH WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BRING A RETURN OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLOW COOLING. THE MARINE LAYER MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... 081150Z...STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VIS AND ISOLDATED IFR NEAR THE COAST. BASES ABOUT 1000 FT MSL WITH LOCAL BASES NEAR 500 FT MSL. STRATUS WILL EVAPORATE BY 16-18Z WITH SOME MVFR VIS DUE TO HAZE NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AT ABOUT THE SAME BASES AND VIS ABOUT 6-8Z. WINDS AT 5K FT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KT...BECOMING WEST 5-10 KT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 10K FT... NORTHWEST 15-20 KT...BECOMING WEST 10-15 KT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MARTIN AVIATION/MARINE...WHITLOW NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PST WED MAR 7 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...LOCAL GUSTY NORTH CANYON WINDS WERE NOTED ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS THIS EVENING OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WX OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AS THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH THERE IS NEAR 1300 FT DEEP. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE. S OF PT CONCEPTION...A WEAK EDDY OF FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE COAST OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL DENSE FOG WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WELL AS THE LATEST LAX ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER THERE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW AT LESS THAN 500 FT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A BROAD WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN CA THRU THU ALONG WITH SLOWLY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W TO WNW THRU FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD INTO SRN CA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU SAT OVER THE REGION. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU AND FRI THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS FOR SAT. ...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT CANYONS WINDS AS UPPER/THERMAL SUPPORT IS NOT GREAT. HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY NICE WARMUP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE A WARM DAY AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO PASS BY TO OUR EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. SO...WILL EXPECT DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION... 08/0527Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU...EXCEPT FOR KSMX AND KSBP...WHERE REDUCED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. EXPECTING MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO STAY N OF KSBA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR/IFR CATS FORMING OVER KOXR KLAX AND KLGB AFTER 10Z...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR MIST FORMING WITHOUT A DEFINITIVE CIG. KLAX WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THU...ALTHO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FOG CREEPING IN 13Z-17Z...BUT MVFR MIST IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT FORMS OVERNIGHT AND SEE JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET WITH A BREAK FROM THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...SIRARD/SWEET AVIATION...SIRARD WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1218 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2007 .AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WILL GO AHEAD AND HAVE SCT 15-25KFT CLOUDS MENTIONED AT SDF AND BWG...AND WILL HOLD OFF AT LEX UNTIL 20Z. AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS/PERHAPS DOWN TO 5KFT WILL FILTER INTO THE TAF SITES OF SDF AND BWG ROUGHLY AFTER 06Z...MAINLY TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. THOUGH FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES...WILL NOT CARRY ANY PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO THE 16-18Z TIME- FRAME. IN ADDITION...925MB WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 40 KTS OR SO ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WITH SFC WINDS OF ONLY 10 KTS...MAYBE 15 KTS...WILL LIKELY INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS (ESPECIALLY AT LEX) FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z. AL && .PREV DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING UPDATE... HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH IT WAS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. LARGE INVERSION STILL EVIDENT FROM SDF ACARS SOUNDING DATA IS CREATING A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS SRN KY AND E-CNTRL KY HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 60S AT LEAST...WHILE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING NRN LOCATIONS FROM MIXING STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. FOR EXAMPLE...LEXINGTON IS GUSTING TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO 61 DEGREES LAST HOUR! HIGHER ELEVATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE HELPING WITH THIS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE INVERSION COMPLETELY MIXES...HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN EVERYWHERE...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OR SO AND TEMPS REACHING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN OUR INDIANA COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS CIRRUS SHIELD IS CLOSING IN ON CWA...THOUGH THIS SHOULD NOT INHIBIT SUNSHINE OR WARM-UP TOO MUCH. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. AL SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE PERIOD...WV IMAGERY SHOWS INTERESTING MID LEVEL VORT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH LITTLE BUT A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLC COASTLINE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SURFACE LOW STILL GATHERING ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE BLENDED THE RUC WITH THE GFS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUD COVER LOOKS OVERDONE THE FIRST PERIOD...HAVE LOWERED TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS CLOUD SHIELD STILL BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF 3 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS (WAA) WILL INCREASE AS THE HEATING ALLOWS THE 20-25KT WINDS AT 2 TO 3K FT TO MIX DOWN SOME...GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE A FASTER BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION THIS MORNING VIA MIXING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UNDERPLAYED BY THE MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY WHEN SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED...BELIEVE THIS TREND MAY BE VALID AGAIN TODAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF MOS AS WINTER EQUATIONS IN THE MODELS TEND TO DISCOUNT THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF MID MARCH AND H850 TEMPS WILL BE NEAR +7 OR +8C. THEREFORE MANY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE TODAY SOUTH OF I-64...UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH. WENT SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND HAVE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...ADDED FACTOR OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY HELP WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALIGNED FROM CHICAGO TO STL TO DALLAS AT 00Z SAT...MOVING TO DETROIT TO INDY TO PADUCAH AROUND DAYBREAK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 06Z FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEST LIFT AND MOISTURE GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF A HIGH PROBABILITY/LOW QPF EVENT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MARCH...CLOSE TO 50 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE CLOUDS. --SCHOTT LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A MILD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO DEAL WITH FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR POOL TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH AND EAST HAS SHIFTED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION AS THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL CHARACTERIZED BY AOA NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...A SORT OF SPRING PREVIEW. THE CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS NOW TRENDING TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MAY NOT BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION. THIS TREND IF REALIZED...COULD AFFECT OUR PCPN CHANCES ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWARD AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COLDER AIR TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A LITTLE BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. --21 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007 .AVIATION DISCUSSION (06Z TAFS)... VERY LITTLE TO DISCUSS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ENE WINDS. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL START TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AFTER 00Z. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...THIN CIRRUS ABOVE 20K FT MAY BRUSH THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SCHOTT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM EST WED MAR 7 2007/ EVENING UPDATE (OVERNIGHT)... COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOWING ABOUT A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM COVINGTON DOWN TO BOWLING GREEN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AIRCRAFT CONTRAILS OUT THERE. CURRENT IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM...THEREFORE WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS AND GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINS SLIGHTLY. OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 930 PM EST. -MJ SHORT LONG TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)... A WARM FRONT MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S...GIVING A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FRONT TRACKED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ACROSS LOUISVILLE AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW PASSED TO THE EAST...THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT BEGAN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST REACHED HIGHS AROUND 18Z. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PERIODS WILL BE HOW FAST THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THIS EVENING AND HOW MUCH COOLER READINGS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS EXTENDING INTO INDIANA THAT IS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWS INCREASE IN RH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT ONLY SCATTER CLOUDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SCHOLZ LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL KEEP US DRY INTO FRIDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUR WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY...LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING....TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AND WILL LET POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR SMALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE SIT BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY PARTICULAR RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...REFINEMENTS CAN BE MADE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. 13 .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
905 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2007 .UPDATE... BAND OF -SHRASN IN COMMA TAIL OF SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACKING ACRS ONTARIO HAS CLRD ISQ-ERY AS OF 02Z WITH AREA OF CLRG IN THE WAKE OF BAND NOW OVER THE CNTRL ZNS. ANOTHER AREA OF CLD COVER IN ADVANCE OF TRAILING SHRTWV MOVING THRU MN NOW PUSHING INTO THE W. 00Z INL RAOB/RECENT NEARBY TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW INVERTED V SUB INVRN LYR WITH DRY NR SFC AIR...DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 5 TO 10F. ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MOIST LYR WITH LOWEST TEMP ABV -10C AS DEPICTED ON THE INL RAOB ARND INVRN BASE JUST ABV H85 MIGHT SUPPORT FZDZ...THE DRY LLVLS/UNSTABLE THERMAL PROFILE WOULD NOT. SO REMOVED MENTION OF FZDZ FM FCST. OTRW... BEEFED UP WINDS A BIT ON THE LK SUP FCST AS 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS WNW WINDS TO 35 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LYR AOB H85. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HI STABILITY SO FAR OVER WRN LK SUP (H85 TEMPS JUST FALLING BLO 0C OVER THE WRN LK AS OF 01Z PER RUC ANALYSIS) HAS PREVENTED THIS MOMENTUM FM MIXING TO THE SFC...FCST RELATIVELY SHARP COOLING LATER TNGT INTO SAT PER LATEST GFS/UKMET SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING PROCESS. TRENDED A BIT HIER FOR WINDS ON SAT AS WELL WITH THERMAL TROF LINGERING OVER LK SUP THRU MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE EXITING W-E LATE. KC .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 350 PM)... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF 500 MB WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS OVER ERN KS AND HAS BEEN KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN KS AND MISSOURI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND THIS WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN MT THAT IS HEADED THIS WAY AND THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. RIDGING THEN HEADS IN FOR SAT. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH PCPN CHANCES WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES. NAM SHOWING WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT TONIGHT AND IS BEING REPLACED BY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS BISECTING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE. PROBLEM IS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 900 MB REMAINING SATURATED WITH THE LEVELS FROM 900MB-700MB DRYING OUT AND LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW SHOWS IT DRY IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH CONFIRMS ISENTROPIC SURFACE MOISTURE ANALYSIS. ALSO SEEMS LIKE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA FOR TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN THE WEST SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 850 MB IN A SATURATED LAYER FROM -3C TO -10C AND THINK PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT THIS IN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. LOOKED AT POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT AND THIS LOOKS MINIMAL EVEN IN THE EAST. GFS IS COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10C WHICH IS A BIAS OF THE GFS WITH TOO COLD TEMPERATURES. NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN TO -8C WHICH IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON SAT MORNING AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS NAM BUFKIT FOR KERY SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHT UP TO 3000 FEET AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ADJMAV LOOKED GOOD AND WENT CLOSE TO IT WHICH WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF OF GOING FORECAST. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) IN A NUTSHELL...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MILD TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING OVR NCNTRL CONUS INTO GREAT LAKES BY THU. THIS TROUGHING AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL MESSY. MIXING HEIGHT BLO H9 SUN...BUT EVEN SO...UPR 30S-LWR 40S SEEM LIKELY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WARM FRONT SLIDES TOWARD UPR MI SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS SFC LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. SHORTWAVE IS WELL AGREED UPON NOW TO COME IN FM PAC NW THIS WEEKEND AND DIVE ESE ACROSS UPR MI LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PRESENSE OF SFC BOUNDARY...SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 2D-FRONTOGENESIS ALL SUPPORT MODELS FCST OF LGT QPF ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/UPR MI AFT 06Z MON. ADDED POPS INTO SUN NIGHT FCST AND KEPT THE SMALL POPS RIGHT INTO MON NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF UPR MI...BUT STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME PCPN. PTYPE FOR SUN NIGHT MAY BE AN ISSUE AS COOLER AIR NEAR SFC IS SUPPLEMENTED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT H9-H85. GFS/UKMET/NAM SHOWED H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MON NEAR +2C WHILE ECMWF WAS AROUND ZERO. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT CMX/MQT/IMT HINTED AT SFC LAYER STAYING BLO ZERO. ALTHOUGH TEMPS OF SNOWPACK ARE STILL WELL BLO FREEZING ACCORDING TO LATEST NOHRSC DATA...SW WINDS AT SFC AND A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY ARGUE FOR RAIN TO BE PROMINANT PTYPE. FOR NOW...USED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MENTIONED SNOW (IN CASE COOLER ECMWF VERIFIES). RAISED MIN TEMPS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING. ANY MIXED PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN QUICKLY ON MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF UPR MI. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND INCOMING COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING PCPN CHANCES LATE MON THROUGH TUE. GOING WITH THE MORE CLOUDY SCENARIO AND CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUE PROHIBITS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN MON. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED THOUGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT (H85 TEMPS ABOVE +10C FM ECMWF) MOST AREAS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S. OF COURSE...ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG RESULTING FM SNOW MELT COULD KEEP LID ON TEMPS EASILY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD END BY WED AS FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN FACT...ECMWF CONTINUES EARLIER TREND OF GFS IN SHOWING TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW BY WED NIGHT. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR EARLY SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS BRIEF. EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO UPR LAKES THU/FRI BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL BLO -13C THU NIGHT INTO FRI THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCT N/NW FLOW LES. NOT A SEVERE COLD SHOT...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS THU/FRI WILL FALL BLO NORMAL VALUES. COORD WITH APX/LOT/GRB/DLH...THANKS. SHORT TERM...MICHELS LONG TERM...JLA && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF 500 MB WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS OVER ERN KS AND HAS BEEN KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN KS AND MISSOURI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND THIS WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN MT THAT IS HEADED THIS WAY AND THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. RIDGING THEN HEADS IN FOR SAT. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH PCPN CHANCES WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES. NAM SHOWING WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT TONIGHT AND IS BEING REPLACED BY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IS BISECTING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE. PROBLEM IS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 900 MB REMAINING SATURATED WITH THE LEVELS FROM 900MB-700MB DRYING OUT AND LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW SHOWS IT DRY IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH CONFIRMS ISENTROPIC SURFACE MOISTURE ANALYSIS. ALSO SEEMS LIKE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA FOR TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN THE WEST SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 850 MB IN A SATURATED LAYER FROM -3C TO -10C AND THINK PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT THIS IN THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. LOOKED AT POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT AND THIS LOOKS MINIMAL EVEN IN THE EAST. GFS IS COLDEST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10C WHICH IS A BIAS OF THE GFS WITH TOO COLD TEMPERATURES. NAM SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN TO -8C WHICH IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON SAT MORNING AND KEPT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS NAM BUFKIT FOR KERY SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHT UP TO 3000 FEET AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ADJMAV LOOKED GOOD AND WENT CLOSE TO IT WHICH WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF OF GOING FORECAST. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) IN A NUTSHELL...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH MILD TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO TROUGHING OVR NCNTRL CONUS INTO GREAT LAKES BY THU. THIS TROUGHING AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL MESSY. MIXING HEIGHT BLO H9 SUN...BUT EVEN SO...UPR 30S-LWR 40S SEEM LIKELY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WARM FRONT SLIDES TOWARD UPR MI SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS SFC LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. SHORTWAVE IS WELL AGREED UPON NOW TO COME IN FM PAC NW THIS WEEKEND AND DIVE ESE ACROSS UPR MI LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. PRESENSE OF SFC BOUNDARY...SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 2D-FRONTOGENESIS ALL SUPPORT MODELS FCST OF LGT QPF ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/UPR MI AFT 06Z MON. ADDED POPS INTO SUN NIGHT FCST AND KEPT THE SMALL POPS RIGHT INTO MON NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF UPR MI...BUT STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME PCPN. PTYPE FOR SUN NIGHT MAY BE AN ISSUE AS COOLER AIR NEAR SFC IS SUPPLEMENTED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT H9-H85. GFS/UKMET/NAM SHOWED H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MON NEAR +2C WHILE ECMWF WAS AROUND ZERO. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS AT CMX/MQT/IMT HINTED AT SFC LAYER STAYING BLO ZERO. ALTHOUGH TEMPS OF SNOWPACK ARE STILL WELL BLO FREEZING ACCORDING TO LATEST NOHRSC DATA...SW WINDS AT SFC AND A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY ARGUE FOR RAIN TO BE PROMINANT PTYPE. FOR NOW...USED RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN MENTIONED SNOW (IN CASE COOLER ECMWF VERIFIES). RAISED MIN TEMPS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING. ANY MIXED PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN QUICKLY ON MON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF UPR MI. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND INCOMING COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING PCPN CHANCES LATE MON THROUGH TUE. GOING WITH THE MORE CLOUDY SCENARIO AND CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUE PROHIBITS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN MON. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED THOUGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT (H85 TEMPS ABOVE +10C FM ECMWF) MOST AREAS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S. OF COURSE...ANY LOW STRATUS AND FOG RESULTING FM SNOW MELT COULD KEEP LID ON TEMPS EASILY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD END BY WED AS FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN FACT...ECMWF CONTINUES EARLIER TREND OF GFS IN SHOWING TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW BY WED NIGHT. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE OUR EARLY SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS BRIEF. EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO UPR LAKES THU/FRI BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. AS H85 TEMPS FALL BLO -13C THU NIGHT INTO FRI THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCT N/NW FLOW LES. NOT A SEVERE COLD SHOT...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPS THU/FRI WILL FALL BLO NORMAL VALUES. COORD WITH APX/LOT/GRB/DLH...THANKS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MICHELS LONG TERM...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1026 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007 .UPDATE...BACKDOOR ARCTIC FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WHITEFISH POINT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON...CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHEARED DPVA LOBE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST. COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...PER MONTREAL RIVER CANADA AND KMQT RADARS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVER THE NORTHERN LOWER...WITH SOLID SHEET OF 5-6KFT OVERCAST COVERING ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA TO STANDISH. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CENTER ON LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES WITH APPROACH OF ARCTIC FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS/12 NAM-WRF GUIDANCE SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOW ITS SOUTHWEST DRIFT. STILL EXPECTING IT TO EVENTUALLY BRUSH NORTHEAST LOWER LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DECAYING IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS FROM MONTREAL RIVER STILL SHOWS DISTINCT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (ALBEIT LIGHT) AFFECTING NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NORTHERN LOWER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANEMIC LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS (RECENT ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF ALPENA SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UP AROUND 3.7KFT) SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES. EXPECT THESE FLURRIES TO SPREAD UP INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD SHIELD HALTING ITS SOUTHEAST ADVANCE. TEMPERATURES/WINDS APPEAR ON TARGET WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/NEARSHORES OUT SHORTLY. MSB && .AVIATION...ISSUED 634 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007 GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO WORK INTO APN AND PLN AROUND MIDDAY (18Z). ONLY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...AS CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS WEAK...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOKING TOO WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT TO RESULT IN ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL...A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 408 AM EST THU MAR 8 2007 SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS WHILE RIDGING WAS SEEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE WORKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH THE FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND. SFC BACKDOOR...AND NEARLY STATIONARY...ARCTIC FRONT WAS POSITIONED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE SAULT AND LAKE ERIE WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. IN NRN MI...-12 TO -14C H8 AIR AND 15KT WNW FLOW WAS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF 2500FT STRATO CU AND FLURRIES. LOOKING UPSTREAM...WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN ALBERTA CANADA. CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-10KFT WERE TRYING TO PUSH SE TOWARD NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS UNDER 2KFT WERE SNEAKING EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST CONCERNS...CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME TYPE CONCERNS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO... TEMPERATURES ARE A FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AS MODERATING/WARMING AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY...SHORTWAVE DIGS SSE THROUGH NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH DOES ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER MORE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH TO THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY POISED JUST TO OUR NE. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A BRIEF TIME THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO...BUT NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS IDEA. AT THE SAME TIME...4-10KFT MOISTURE SEEN WORKING IT`S WAY TOWARD CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WELL NORTH OF WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST...WILL TRY AND PHASE IN WITH THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LES REGIME WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3-3.5KFT AND WARMING H8 TEMPS FROM -8C (GTV BAY) TO -14C (SSM/APN) AT 12Z...TO -6C (GTV BAY) AND -14C SSM/APN) BY 00Z (VERY SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE). 1000-850MB W/WNW WINDS OF 15KTS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WEAKEN INTO MIDDAY...THEN BECOME SE AT 10KTS BY 00Z...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES TO >80% IN BOTH THE H9-H7 AND H8-H5 LAYERS. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING (THROUGH 15Z) ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WHERE COOLEST H8 AIR AND SUFFICIENT STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN RESULT IN INLAND TRANSPORT OF HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX FROM OFF THE BAY. JUST A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN NRN LOWER DUE TO CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. AS WINDS TURN SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON... TEMPS WILL ONLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SNEAKING INTO EASTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES (MOST LIKELY DRUMMOND ISLAND)...PER ONGOING FORECAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE NE WITH LOW-MID 20S WHILE LOWER 30S SEEN NEAR GTV BAY. TONIGHT...POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF FLURRIES HANGING ON NEAR DRUMMOND ISLAND EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WARM FURTHER. H8 TEMPS RISE TO 0C (GTV BAY) TO -4C (SSM) BY DAYBREAK AS WARM FRONT TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE AFOREMENTIONED SUB 2.5KFT CEILINGS FROM OUT OVER MN/FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY UP INTO EASTERN UPPER/FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEADS TO CDP`S BELOW 20MB ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...OR WHETHER THE INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE. WITH THE ENTIRE SOUNDING COLDER THAN 0C...AND THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE DANGLING AROUND -10C...WILL JUST GO WITH A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. FRIDAY...SAME QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE HOLD FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SHALLOW SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SFC COOL FRONT FOR BETTER LIFT...WHICH WOULD MORE LIKELY LEAD TO A NON-DRIZZLE PRECIP TYPE. AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER STILL APPEARS TO REMAIN ENTIRELY COLDER THAN 0C...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER...SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT EXTENDING THROUGH 850-800MB...LEADS TO MORE OF A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH SOME EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN EASTERN UPPER WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS. FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ONE WERE TO BUY OFF ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERE WOULD BE NO PRECIP AS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR COMES IN...ALONG WITH INVERSIONS DOWN TO 850-900MB. WITH A SECONDARY...AND ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP ATTM...ESPECIALLY WHEN THROWING IN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE COOL FRONT ITSELF. MORE MILD LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 20S. SATURDAY ONWARD...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED. 925-850MB TEMPS DANCING AROUND 32F...AND WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO EASILY TAP INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 30S. INCREASED MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 40F OR EVEN THE LOWER 40S. THE DECENT MELTING THAT WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND...WOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES. SMD APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
245 PM MST FRI MAR 9 2007 .DISCUSSION... 21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1013MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER E CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NE PLAINS OF NM. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTIFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS A 90-110 KNOT JET DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SE CORNER SATURDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TEMPS WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH IN THE NE CORNER AS MOUNTAIN WAVE INDUCED HIGH CLOUDS REDUCE INSOLATION. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND SATURDAY HOWEVER DISAGREEMENT IS DECREASING SINCE YESTERDAY. 12Z MREF CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE SPREAD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER NE NM LATE SATURDAY. 09Z SREF SHOWS MUCH LESS SPREAD AND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET WITH DIVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NM AND INTO WEST TX THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL REFLECT INCREASING POPS TO NEAR HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NE CORNER BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL PUSH 8-9C/KM WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AHEAD OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH. ON THE WINTRY SIDE OF THINGS...SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 8-9K FEET SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TOPS AND RIDGES. SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DEVELOPS A STRONG FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT ANY REMNANT UPPER LOW ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER E NM AND TEXAS TO PUSH EAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO NM. TEMPS WILL WARM 10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE STATEWIDE WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND EVEN A FEW 80S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 35 64 31 63 / 0 0 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 23 65 24 65 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 25 66 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 43 78 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 20 50 16 49 / 0 10 20 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 60 27 58 / 0 0 5 0 RED RIVER....................... 22 46 17 45 / 0 10 20 0 TAOS............................ 24 59 25 56 / 0 0 10 0 SANTA FE........................ 30 62 31 59 / 0 0 5 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 64 33 61 / 0 0 5 0 ESPANOLA........................ 37 68 34 64 / 0 0 5 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 71 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 74 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 72 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 43 75 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 64 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 32 67 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 39 73 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 38 65 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 24 61 30 55 / 0 5 30 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 29 63 30 56 / 0 0 5 5 ROY............................. 38 65 35 57 / 0 0 20 10 CLAYTON......................... 37 66 35 57 / 0 0 30 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 40 73 40 62 / 0 0 10 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 38 73 40 60 / 0 0 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 41 79 42 64 / 0 0 10 10 CLOVIS.......................... 39 78 41 60 / 0 0 20 20 PORTALES........................ 34 79 39 63 / 0 0 20 30 ROSWELL......................... 40 81 46 71 / 0 0 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
920 AM CST THU MAR 8 2007 .UPDATE... EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS ONE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IN OUR FAR NW...AND TEMPS MAY BE WARMER HERE. ELSEWHERE...WITH VERY STEEP INVERSION PER BIS/ABR AND TAMDAR SOUNDINGS TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL EXTEND THIS MENTION THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO WARM WITH FOG AND DEEP SNOW PACK...BUT WE SHOULD APPROACH 30 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD WARM A BIT MORE...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SUN ANYWHERE. THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC TROUGH AND WEAKENING WINDS...SO THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. UPDATE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED BY 1030 AM TO ADDRESS ABOVE CONCERNS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
851 PM CST WED MAR 7 2007 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES/PHASE TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT OVER FA AT 12Z AND FROM WATER VAPOR SEEMS TO BE SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE THAN MODELS DEPICT. STEADY WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REACHES FA BY EVENING. MVFR/IFR STRATUS EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND HAS COVERED ENTIRE FA. WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST FLUX IN RETURN FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TODAY. MOIST LAYER LOW AND VERY SHALLOW...1K FROM TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPER UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER ANY LIFT IN WARM ADVECTION LIKELY WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FZDZ OR FLURRIES. WITH MIXING...CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO HOLD STEADY REMAINDER OF NIGHT. IN SPITE OF APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE CLOUDS...SNOW PACK AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW VS WARMER SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TOO FAR INTO THE 30S. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF UNDERCUTTING NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. BETTER LIFT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES FA. DEEP LAYERED RH STILL LOOKS LIMITED AS FEATURE PASSES SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. BASED ON SURFACE AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT PHASE POTENTIAL. COLUMN COOLS SOMEWHAT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE FRIDAY HOWEVER WITH COLUMN DRYING WE SHOULD HAVE SOME MARCH SOLAR TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BASED ON DEEP AND RELATIVELY FRESH SNOWPACK. RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH WEEKEND. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL FORCING SUNDAY TO OUR SOUTH SO OVERALL LOOKS DRY. THERMAL PROFILE SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING DAY. WILL NOT RAISE TEMPERATURES DURING PERIOD AS WITH MELTING OF EXISTING SNOW PACK AND WEAK FLOW COULD SEE BR DEVELOPMENT AT NIGHT AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS MAY TEMPER HEATING. .AVIATION... MVFR/IFR CIGS TO PERSIST TODAY WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER VSBY IN BR. NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON VSBY DURING DAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PST FRI MAR 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS THIS SUNDAY AT 2 AM. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING AND EVENING ACARS DATA SHOWED THE INVERSION NEAR 1800 FEET. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE BIG WEATHER STORY TONIGHT IS THE UNSEASONABLE ARRIVAL AND PERSISTENT STAYING POWER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO 26C SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BE TWO VERY WARM/HOT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS BUT INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE BUCKLES SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ZERO. FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR VERY LOW HUMIDITIES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WIND. && .AVIATION... 100430Z...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 1300 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN W SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. STRATUS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT IN COASTAL AND VALLEY SECTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT SOMEWHAT MORE PATCHY OVER ORANGE COUNTY. STRATUS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND MAINLY APPEAR IN THE FAR SOUTH. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE COMBINED WITH OBSCURED TERRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 800-1300 FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL RANGE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SATURDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEE LAXRFWSGX. && $$ CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION PUBLIC...MOEDE AVIATION...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST FRI MAR 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS THIS SUNDAY AT 2 AM. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING AND EVENING ACARS DATA SHOWED THE INVERSION NEAR 1800 FEET. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE BIG WEATHER STORY TONIGHT IS THE UNSEASONABLE ARRIVAL AND PERSISTENT STAYING POWER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO 26C SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BE TWO VERY WARM/HOT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS BUT INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE BUCKLES SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ZERO. FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR VERY LOW HUMIDITIES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WIND. && .AVIATION... 092130Z...SCATTERED STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME BROKEN-OVERCAST AFTER 00Z AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. BASES INITIALLY AROUND FL015 LOWERING AFTER 06Z TO FL007 WITH TOPS TO FL015. AIRPORTS WITH ELEVATIONS IN THIS RANGE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. EARLIER CLEARING INLAND SATURDAY MORNING...CLOSER TO 16Z. FOR SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...BELOW FL006...MAY RESULT IN DENSE FOG AT COASTAL AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT/PUSHED OFFSHORE BY INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEE LAXRFWSGX. && $$ PUBLIC...MOEDE AVIATION...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
445 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA FROM SRN ONT S THRU ERN LWR MI TO THE OH AND TENN VLLY ATTM. THE ACVTY WAS MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER N TWD ONT. THIS PRECIP HAS FORMED IN ASSCTN WITH AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT THAT WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE ERN LAKE AND ERN OH VLLY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS A LL SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING A SIGNFCT AMNT OF MOISTURE NE TWD WRN NY/WRN PA. LIFTG AT MID- LVL/S ASSCTD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR WAVE WAS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENUF ABV THIS MOIST LAYER TO TRIGGER SHRA. THE SHRA WERE MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER N WHERE THE LIFTG WAS DEEPER. THIS IS SEEN WELL IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE TERM ON THE 290K SFC LATER TODAY. IN ADDTN WITH A SWRLY FLO...THERE WILL BE PREFERENTIAL LL ADVTN N AND W OF THE APPLACNS THRU THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE PLAIN WHICH WILL INCREASE CHC/S OF SHRA LATER THIS MORNING THERE FIRST. THE PRECIP WONT ARRIVE FARTHER S AND E IN C NY AND NE PA UNTIL THE COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH THE LIFTG FROM THE UPR LVL WAVE ABV THE INCREASING LL MOISTURE. I SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP FOR SC NY/CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS AFTERN INTO EVE. SO WILL HV LIKELY POPS FIRST IN NW CWA AND LATER TODAY/EVE IN THE SERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT...A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO MOVG THRU NY/PA ON BOTH GFS AND NAM WHICH LOOKS RSBL GIVEN THE DEEPING OF THE UPR LVL TROF AND INCRSG SUBSDC. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP SAT NGT AND ERLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPR LVL PV LOBE AND ASSCTD COLD CORE ALOFT THAT FOLLOWS THIS FIRST UPR LVL FEATURE FOR TODAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS PV LOBE AND TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND SW- AND SW-- ON SUNDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING IN AFTRN. THE NAM IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER N AND E. THE GFS HAS -10C AT 850 MB ACRS MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY 18Z WITH SOME LES POSSIBLY...(MINOR). THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME AM FLURRIES TO NC NY FOR NOW AND NOT BITE OFF ON THIS JUST YET. SUNDAY SHUD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS W/ AM FLURRIES NC NY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CU/SC. REST OF CWA...SCT CU GIVING WAY TO FEW-SKC BY AFTRN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /10Z-06Z/... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE LLWS OVR RME AND SYR. THESE LOCATIONS CONT TO BE N OF A WRM FRNTL BNDRY WHICH ACTUALLY IS STATIONARY. COLD DENSE AIR NR THE SFC APPEARS TO BE STUCK N OF THE APPLCNS AND IN THE MOHAWK. ALOFT WARMER AIR CONTS TO STREAM IN AND CREATE A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. VWP AND ESP THE TAMADAR DATA CONTS TO SHOW A SWRLY FLO JUST BELOW 2000 FEET AGL UP TO 35 KTS WITH A LAYER BELOW THAT WHERE THE WINDS PICK UP MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP LLWS IN BOTH OF THE TAFS THRU 12Z. DON/T FEEL REST OF TAFS ARE HAVING AS MUCH SHEAR AS THE LL FLO IN THESE PLACES HAS BEEN MORE SRLY AND THEY ARE S OF THIS BNDRY/TERRAIN FEATURE. POTENTIAL IS THERE SO WILL MONITOR TAMDARS AND 88D VWPS CLOSELY FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...SCT-BKN CI CLDS WERE ADVECTING INTO UPSTATE NY SW TO WRN PA AND WRN NY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLLY. THIS CI WILL CONT TO ADVECT IN OVRNGT BUT IT REMAINS THIN AS PER SATL AND METARS. THE CI WILL THICKEN UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER TWD 12Z AS THE UPR LVL LIFTG...LWR LVL WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN TIME OVRNGT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 12Z. AFTER 12Z AS THE UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD INCREASING LL FLO MOVS INTO THE REGION...CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP WORKS INTO NY AND NRN PA. NEPANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FM LWR MI SW INTO IL THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN SOME PLACES IN IL THERE WAS EVEN VLIFR. NOT SURE WE WILL DROP THAT LO SINCE THE LL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIONS ON SW FLO IS IMPEDED BY THE APPLACHIANS A BIT...SO I CUD SEE THIS LOWER MOISTURE RIDING ABV THE MTNS LEADG TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN FOG LATER TODAY. INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP RAISE CIGS A BIT TOO. THIS PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH OUR TAFS SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z AND LAST THRU 00Z...EXCEPT AVP WHERE IT WILL LINGER LONGER. AFTER 00Z...SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLDS AND MOISTURE WILL HANG ARND WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TWD 06Z SUN. SEE IFR/MVFR AFTER 00Z BUT POTENTIALLY IMPROVING THRU 06Z. WILL BE FRESHENING UP TAFS SOON AT 10Z. && .HYDROLOGY... SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO 3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...DJN HYDROLOGY...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... SCT-BKN CI CLDS WERE ADVECTING INTO UPSTATE NY SW TO WRN PA AND WRN NY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLLY. THIS CI WILL CONT TO ADVECT IN OVRNGT BUT IT REMAINS THIN AS PER SATL AND METARS. THE CI WILL THICKEN UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER TWD 12Z AS THE UPR LVL LIFTG...LWR LVL WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN TIME OVRNGT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 12Z. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OVR RME AND SYR. ITH APPEARS TO BE MIXING OUT ENUF IN THE LL/S AS THE WINDS ARE SRLY UP TO 14 KTS UP CAYUGA LAKE. FOR RME AND SYR THE LL FLO WAS MAINLY ERLY AND FAIRLY LIGHT AS COLD DENSE AIR IS STUCK NR THE SFC N OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN C NY...A TYPICAL SCENARIO. ALOFT WARMER AIR CONTS TO STREAM IN AND CREATE A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. VWP AND ESP THE TAMADAR DATA IS SHOWG A SWRLY FLO JUST BELOW 2000 FEET AGL UP TO 35 KTS WITH A LAYER BELOW THAT THE WINDS PICK UP MARKEDLY. PUT LLWS IN BOTH OF THE TAFS THRU 12Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS LATER ON THIS SHIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. DON/T FEEL REST OF TAFS ARE HAVING AS MUCH SHEAR AS THE LL FLO IN THESE PLACES HAS BEEN MORE SRLY. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE SO WILL MONITOR TAMDARS AND 88D VWPS CLOSELY. AFTER 12Z AS THE UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD INCREASING LL FLO MOVS INTO THE REGION...CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP WORKS INTO NY AND NRN PA. NEPANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FM LWR MI SW INTO IL THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN SOME PLACES IN IL THERE WAS EVEN VLIFR. NOT SURE WE WILL DROP THAT LO SINCE THE LL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIONS ON SW FLO IS IMPEDED BY THE APPLACHIANS A BIT...SO I CUD SEE THIS LOWER MOISTURE RIDING ABV THE MTNS LEADG TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN FOG LATER TODAY. INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP RAISE CIGS A BIT TOO. THIS PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH OUR TAFS SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z AND LAST THRU 00Z...EXCEPT AVP WHERE IT WILL LINGER LONGER. AFTER 00Z...SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLDS AND MOISTURE WILL HANG ARND WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TWD 06Z SUN. SEE IFR/MVFR AFTER 00Z BUT POTENTIALLY IMPROVING THRU 06Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SUNNY SKIES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ERN NY MOVG EAST. PRESSURE GRAIENT TIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C TONIGHT SO ANY PRECIP SAT MORNING COULD FREEZE ON THE COLD GROUND. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF ANYTHING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP MIXING THE AIR AND BRINGING WARMTH FROM S. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE PRECIP CENTERED FROM 18Z TO 03Z MOVG FROM NW TO SE IN A NARROW BAND AHEAD AND WITH FRONT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN INCH DO NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MANY HYDRO CONCERNS. QUICK SPEED OF FRONT AND WEAK DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO BE BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. AS THE RAIN ENDS IT COULD MIX WITH SOME SNOW. SAT NGT GFS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW. SOME COLD AIR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE INSTABILITY. PUT IN A LOW CHC POP TO COVER A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER FAR N. SUNDAY WAA ALREADY OCCURING BEHIND THE WEAK UL TROF. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR. THE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL. RRM HYDROLOGY... SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO 3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...DJN
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
348 AM PST SAT MAR 10 2007 ...DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME BEGINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... ...POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY... .SHORT TERM...NLY PRES GRADS HAVE INCREASED...AND WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. EXCEPT FOR ISOLD GUSTS IN THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS THIS MORNING. NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME LOW CLDS/LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO BANK UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MTNS...THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS... THE CUYAMA VALLEY AND SERN SLO COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID OR LATE MORNING. W OF THE MTNS...LOW CLOUDS WERE LESS WDSPRD THIS MORNING...THANKS TO OFFSHR TRENDS OF THE W-E PRES GRADS. CLOUDS WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CST OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...BUT MAY EXPAND INLAND A BIT BY MORNING. MARINE LAYER IS STILL JUST BARELY DEEP ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...BUT XPCT LITTLE PENETRATION INTO THE VLYS THIS MORNING. PROFILERS WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONT TODAY...WITH WARMING SPREADING INTO LOWER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. XPCT CONSIDERABLE WARMING IN THE VLYS TODAY...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MARINE INFLUENCE TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM RISING TOO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT INTERIOR SXNS SHOULD STILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM FRIDAY. XPCT SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS. UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO CA TONIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BUILD WWD INTO CA. ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...GRADS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTY NELY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE VLYS AND LOCALLY INTO THE CSTL SXNS OF L.A. COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...XPCT WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LVLS...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE IN THE MTNS. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SIGNIFICANT RISES IN HGTS/THICKNESSES AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A WARM UP IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING HUGE WARMING TO ALL IMDT BEACH AREAS...BUT ACROSS INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CSTL PLAIN AND IN THE VLYS...XPCT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING IN MANY LOCATIONS. MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY...AND IT COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ACRS INTERIOR SXNS OF THE L.A. COUNTY CSTL PLAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS AS WELL. XPCT SOME RECORD TO BE TIED OR BROKEN ACRS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. LOW LVL GRADS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS AGAIN IN THE MTNS...VLYS AND SOME CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WHERE IT REMAINS WINDS...WITH TEMPS PROBABLY STAYING ABOVE 70 IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...MAKING FOR A VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM MID MARCH DAY IN MOST AREAS. WARMER VLY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ON MONDAY. TEMPS ACRS INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CSTL PLAIN FROM SLO COUNTY THROUGH L.A. COUNTY WILL LIKELY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE ACRS INTERIOR L.A. AND VTU COUNTY CSTL AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS ABOUT 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. MANY DAILY RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT...VERY DRY CONDITIONS...SOME GUSTY WINDS...AND THE LACK OF RAIN THIS WINTER WILL LIKELY CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONDS TO APCH CRITICAL LVLS IN THE VLYS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MTNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN THE MTNS OF L.A....VTU AND SBA COUNTIES...THE DRYING WILL START EARLIER...SO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT THROUGH MONDAY. .LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUE AND WED...SO XPCT GRADUAL COOLING EACH DAY...QUICKEST ACRS THE CSTL PLAIN AS OFFSHORE GRADS TURN ONSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH 90 IN THE WARMER VLYS ON TUE...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT DO SO ON WED. THEN... XPCT MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN TEMPS THU AND FRI... WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS NO THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. && .AVIATION... 10/1135Z LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS VERY PATCHY...BUT ANNOYINGLY PLACED...MARINE LAYER ON EITHER SIDE OF KLAX/KLGB...NEAR KSMX....AND NEAR KSBA. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1500 FT. FOR TAF SITES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION... VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY....ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG TO MOVE INTO KSMX. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WITH CLEAR FORECAST FOR KSMX. FOR COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY. WILL EXPECT SOME SLIGHT VSBYS RESTRICTIONS FOR KSBA/KOXR...4-6 MILES...BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. FOR KLAX/KLGB...WILL INDICATE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AND VSBYS BETWEEN 3-5 MILES BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z AS STRATUS POISED TO SURGE NORTH FROM ORANGE COUNTY. AFTER STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE MORNING... CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON 6-10 KNOT SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED. FOR KBUR/KVNY...WILL GO WITH CLEAR FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SAID FORECAST IS MODERATE AT BEST. WITH MARINE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FEET STRATUS/FOG COULD GET INTO THE VALLEY TAFS WITH A GOOD PUSH. IF THE MARINE LAYER DOES GET INTO THE VALLEY TAFS...WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS BELOW 800 FEET AND VSBYS BETWEEN 2-4 MILES. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GO WITH CLEAR FORECAST AS STRATUS DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT PUSH AT THIS TIME. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...BRUNO AVIATION...THOMPSON WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1107 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING, BUMP MAX TEMPS UP 2 TO 4 DEGREES AND DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA BY THREE HOURS. SYR HAD A TRACE AMOUNT OF FZRA THEN TEMPS ROSE QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING, AT RME TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED YET. RRM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INTO THE ZONES AND HWO. RADAR INDICATED THAT A BAND OF PRECIP ASSCTD WITH THE INCREASED SWRLY LL ISEN FLO WAS ENHANCING...INSTEAD OF FALLING APART...REVERSING A TREND SEEN EARLIER THIS AM. LL BNDRY ACRS NC NY APPARENTLY HAS ENUF LIFT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP. GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPS ARE WELL BLO FRZG THINK A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR NC AND NE ZONES. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG ENUF OR BE WIDESPREAD ENUF FOR AN ADVY AND WILL BE OUT OF NC NY SHORTLY. AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... ADDED A TEMPO FOR -FZRA FOR SYR...WILL WAIT AND SEE IF BAND OF PRECIP REMAINS TOGETHER FOR FZRA FOR KRME. AFTER THIS BAND OF FZRA PASSES...MAINLY MID CLDS AND A FEW LIGHT VFR-TYPE SHRA UNTIL THE SFC FRNT APPRCHES. AS THE FRNT APPRCHES LL MOISTURE INCREASES AND COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE ENUF TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR. THIS WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST NEPANALYSIS. FROM THE SFC BNDRY IN THE OH VLLY AND POINTS JUST TO THE W...CIGS/VSBYS DROP MARKEDLY. AS THE FRNT SLICES THRU THE REGION...WE SHUD SEE THE SAME AND HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS ACCORDINGLY TO MVFR AND IFR LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. ONCE THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS LATER TONIGHT...SEE AN MVFR-VFR SCT- BKN SC DEC. KEPT LLWS IN KRME AND KSYR GIVEN THAT THEY ARE STILL N OF A LL BNDRY AND HAVE ERLY FLO AT THE SFC. AMDARS DATA SHOWG WINDS OF 240 DEGREES 35 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK IN NC NY. SO LLWS WILL CONT UNTIL WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE S AT THESE SITES BY 15Z OR SO. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA FROM SRN ONT S THRU ERN LWR MI TO THE OH AND TENN VLLY ATTM. THE ACVTY WAS MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER N TWD ONT. THIS PRECIP HAS FORMED IN ASSCTN WITH AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT THAT WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE ERN LAKE AND ERN OH VLLY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS A LL SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING A SIGNFCT AMNT OF MOISTURE NE TWD WRN NY/WRN PA. LIFTG AT MID- LVL/S ASSCTD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR WAVE WAS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENUF ABV THIS MOIST LAYER TO TRIGGER SHRA. THE SHRA WERE MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER N WHERE THE LIFTG WAS DEEPER. THIS IS SEEN WELL IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE TERM ON THE 290K SFC LATER TODAY. IN ADDTN WITH A SWRLY FLO...THERE WILL BE PREFERENTIAL LL ADVTN N AND W OF THE APPLACNS THRU THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE PLAIN WHICH WILL INCREASE CHC/S OF SHRA LATER THIS MORNING THERE FIRST. THE PRECIP WONT ARRIVE FARTHER S AND E IN C NY AND NE PA UNTIL THE COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH THE LIFTG FROM THE UPR LVL WAVE ABV THE INCREASING LL MOISTURE. I SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP FOR SC NY/CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS AFTERN INTO EVE. SO WILL HV LIKELY POPS FIRST IN NW CWA AND LATER TODAY/EVE IN THE SERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT...A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO MOVG THRU NY/PA ON BOTH GFS AND NAM WHICH LOOKS RSBL GIVEN THE DEEPING OF THE UPR LVL TROF AND INCRSG SUBSDC. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP SAT NGT AND ERLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPR LVL PV LOBE AND ASSCTD COLD CORE ALOFT THAT FOLLOWS THIS FIRST UPR LVL FEATURE FOR TODAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS PV LOBE AND TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND SW- AND SW-- ON SUNDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING IN AFTRN. THE NAM IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER N AND E. THE GFS HAS -10C AT 850 MB ACRS MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY 18Z WITH SOME LES POSSIBLY...(MINOR). THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME AM FLURRIES TO NC NY FOR NOW AND NOT BITE OFF ON THIS JUST YET. SUNDAY SHUD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS W/ AM FLURRIES NC NY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CU/SC. REST OF CWA...SCT CU GIVING WAY TO FEW-SKC BY AFTRN. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL. HYDROLOGY... SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO 3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
706 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INTO THE ZONES AND HWO. RADAR INDICATED THAT A BAND OF PRECIP ASSCTD WITH THE INCREASED SWRLY LL ISEN FLO WAS ENHANCING...INSTEAD OF FALLING APART...REVERSING A TREND SEEN EARLIER THIS AM. LL BNDRY ACRS NC NY APPARENTLY HAS ENUF LIFT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP. GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPS ARE WELL BLO FRZG THINK A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR NC AND NE ZONES. IT WILL NOT LAST LONG ENUF OR BE WIDESPREAD ENUF FOR AN ADVY AND WILL BE OUT OF NC NY SHORTLY. && .AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... ADDED A TEMPO FOR -FZRA FOR SYR...WILL WAIT AND SEE IF BAND OF PRECIP REMAINS TOGETHER FOR FZRA FOR KRME. AFTER THIS BAND OF FZRA PASSES...MAINLY MID CLDS AND A FEW LIGHT VFR-TYPE SHRA UNTIL THE SFC FRNT APPRCHES. AS THE FRNT APPRCHES LL MOISTURE INCREASES AND COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE ENUF TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR. THIS WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST NEPANALYSIS. FROM THE SFC BNDRY IN THE OH VLLY AND POINTS JUST TO THE W...CIGS/VSBYS DROP MARKEDLY. AS THE FRNT SLICES THRU THE REGION...WE SHUD SEE THE SAME AND HAVE LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS ACCORDINGLY TO MVFR AND IFR LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. ONCE THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS LATER TONIGHT...SEE AN MVFR-VFR SCT- BKN SC DEC. KEPT LLWS IN KRME AND KSYR GIVEN THAT THEY ARE STILL N OF A LL BNDRY AND HAVE ERLY FLO AT THE SFC. AMDARS DATA SHOWG WINDS OF 240 DEGREES 35 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK IN NC NY. SO LLWS WILL CONT UNTIL WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE S AT THESE SITES BY 15Z OR SO. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA FROM SRN ONT S THRU ERN LWR MI TO THE OH AND TENN VLLY ATTM. THE ACVTY WAS MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER N TWD ONT. THIS PRECIP HAS FORMED IN ASSCTN WITH AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT THAT WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE ERN LAKE AND ERN OH VLLY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS A LL SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING A SIGNFCT AMNT OF MOISTURE NE TWD WRN NY/WRN PA. LIFTG AT MID- LVL/S ASSCTD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR WAVE WAS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENUF ABV THIS MOIST LAYER TO TRIGGER SHRA. THE SHRA WERE MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER N WHERE THE LIFTG WAS DEEPER. THIS IS SEEN WELL IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE TERM ON THE 290K SFC LATER TODAY. IN ADDTN WITH A SWRLY FLO...THERE WILL BE PREFERENTIAL LL ADVTN N AND W OF THE APPLACNS THRU THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE PLAIN WHICH WILL INCREASE CHC/S OF SHRA LATER THIS MORNING THERE FIRST. THE PRECIP WONT ARRIVE FARTHER S AND E IN C NY AND NE PA UNTIL THE COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH THE LIFTG FROM THE UPR LVL WAVE ABV THE INCREASING LL MOISTURE. I SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP FOR SC NY/CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS AFTERN INTO EVE. SO WILL HV LIKELY POPS FIRST IN NW CWA AND LATER TODAY/EVE IN THE SERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT...A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO MOVG THRU NY/PA ON BOTH GFS AND NAM WHICH LOOKS RSBL GIVEN THE DEEPING OF THE UPR LVL TROF AND INCRSG SUBSDC. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP SAT NGT AND ERLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPR LVL PV LOBE AND ASSCTD COLD CORE ALOFT THAT FOLLOWS THIS FIRST UPR LVL FEATURE FOR TODAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS PV LOBE AND TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND SW- AND SW-- ON SUNDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING IN AFTRN. THE NAM IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER N AND E. THE GFS HAS -10C AT 850 MB ACRS MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY 18Z WITH SOME LES POSSIBLY...(MINOR). THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE. HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME AM FLURRIES TO NC NY FOR NOW AND NOT BITE OFF ON THIS JUST YET. SUNDAY SHUD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS W/ AM FLURRIES NC NY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CU/SC. REST OF CWA...SCT CU GIVING WAY TO FEW-SKC BY AFTRN. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL. AVIATION /10Z-06Z/... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE LLWS OVR RME AND SYR. THESE LOCATIONS CONT TO BE N OF A WRM FRNTL BNDRY WHICH ACTUALLY IS STATIONARY. COLD DENSE AIR NR THE SFC APPEARS TO BE STUCK N OF THE APPLCNS AND IN THE MOHAWK. ALOFT WARMER AIR CONTS TO STREAM IN AND CREATE A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. VWP AND ESP THE TAMADAR DATA CONTS TO SHOW A SWRLY FLO JUST BELOW 2000 FEET AGL UP TO 35 KTS WITH A LAYER BELOW THAT WHERE THE WINDS PICK UP MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP LLWS IN BOTH OF THE TAFS THRU 12Z. DON/T FEEL REST OF TAFS ARE HAVING AS MUCH SHEAR AS THE LL FLO IN THESE PLACES HAS BEEN MORE SRLY AND THEY ARE S OF THIS BNDRY/TERRAIN FEATURE. POTENTIAL IS THERE SO WILL MONITOR TAMDARS AND 88D VWPS CLOSELY FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...SCT-BKN CI CLDS WERE ADVECTING INTO UPSTATE NY SW TO WRN PA AND WRN NY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLLY. THIS CI WILL CONT TO ADVECT IN OVRNGT BUT IT REMAINS THIN AS PER SATL AND METARS. THE CI WILL THICKEN UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER TWD 12Z AS THE UPR LVL LIFTG...LWR LVL WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN TIME OVRNGT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 12Z. AFTER 12Z AS THE UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD INCREASING LL FLO MOVS INTO THE REGION...CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP WORKS INTO NY AND NRN PA. NEPANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FM LWR MI SW INTO IL THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN SOME PLACES IN IL THERE WAS EVEN VLIFR. NOT SURE WE WILL DROP THAT LO SINCE THE LL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIONS ON SW FLO IS IMPEDED BY THE APPLACHIANS A BIT...SO I CUD SEE THIS LOWER MOISTURE RIDING ABV THE MTNS LEADG TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN FOG LATER TODAY. INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP RAISE CIGS A BIT TOO. THIS PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH OUR TAFS SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z AND LAST THRU 00Z...EXCEPT AVP WHERE IT WILL LINGER LONGER. AFTER 00Z...SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLDS AND MOISTURE WILL HANG ARND WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TWD 06Z SUN. SEE IFR/MVFR AFTER 00Z BUT POTENTIALLY IMPROVING THRU 06Z. WILL BE FRESHENING UP TAFS SOON AT 10Z. HYDROLOGY... SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO 3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJN AVIATION...DJN