Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/11/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PST FRI MAR 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS THIS SUNDAY AT 2 AM. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE IN TO THE WRN INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. EARLY AFTERNOON ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE INVERSION BASE HAS LOWERED TO ABOUT 1500 FT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO SAT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE SHALLOWER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING AND WILL CLEAR EARLIER SAT...ESPECIALLY FROM ORANGE COUNTY AS GRADIENTS START TO TURN OFFSHORE FROM THE N. THERE COULD BE PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND ON HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND DEVELOPING WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON WITH SOME RECORD HIGH MAX TEMPS LIKELY INLAND. MON SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PEAK SUN MORNING BUT MOST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH. FIRE WEATHER...THE THE WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR VERY LOW HUMIDITIES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WIND. && .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... THE HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID WEEK FOR A LITTLE COOLING...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR RENEWED WARMING. && .AVIATION... 092130Z...SCATTERED STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME BROKEN-OVERCAST AFTER 00Z AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. BASES INITIALLY AROUND FL015 LOWERING AFTER 06Z TO FL007 WITH TOPS TO FL015. AIRPORTS WITH ELEVATIONS IN THIS RANGE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. EARLIER CLEARING INLAND SATURDAY MORNING...CLOSER TO 16Z. FOR SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...BELOW FL006...MAY RESULT IN DENSE FOG AT COASTAL AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IT IS COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT/PUSHED OFFSHORE BY INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEE LAXRFWSGX. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...BALFOUR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1131 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007 .LATE MORNING UPDATE... HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH IT WAS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. LARGE INVERSION STILL EVIDENT FROM SDF ACARS SOUNDING DATA IS CREATING A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOCATIONS ACROSS SRN KY AND E-CNTRL KY HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 60S AT LEAST...WHILE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. THE INVERSION IS KEEPING NRN LOCATIONS FROM MIXING STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC. FOR EXAMPLE...LEXINGTON IS GUSTING TO 25 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO 61 DEGREES LAST HOUR! HIGHER ELEVATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE HELPING WITH THIS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED WIND GUSTS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE INVERSION COMPLETELY MIXES...HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN EVERYWHERE...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OR SO AND TEMPS REACHING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN OUR INDIANA COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS CIRRUS SHIELD IS CLOSING IN ON CWA...THOUGH THIS SHOULD NOT INHIBIT SUNSHINE OR WARM-UP TOO MUCH. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. AL && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... QUIET PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE PERIOD...WV IMAGERY SHOWS INTERESTING MID LEVEL VORT MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH LITTLE BUT A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLC COASTLINE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SURFACE LOW STILL GATHERING ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE BLENDED THE RUC WITH THE GFS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUD COVER LOOKS OVERDONE THE FIRST PERIOD...HAVE LOWERED TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS CLOUD SHIELD STILL BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF 3 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS (WAA) WILL INCREASE AS THE HEATING ALLOWS THE 20-25KT WINDS AT 2 TO 3K FT TO MIX DOWN SOME...GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE A FASTER BREAKDOWN OF THE INVERSION THIS MORNING VIA MIXING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN UNDERPLAYED BY THE MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY WHEN SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED...BELIEVE THIS TREND MAY BE VALID AGAIN TODAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGH END OF MOS AS WINTER EQUATIONS IN THE MODELS TEND TO DISCOUNT THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF MID MARCH AND H850 TEMPS WILL BE NEAR +7 OR +8C. THEREFORE MANY IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE TODAY SOUTH OF I-64...UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH. WENT SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND HAVE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE GRIDS THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...ADDED FACTOR OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY HELP WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS WELL. CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALIGNED FROM CHICAGO TO STL TO DALLAS AT 00Z SAT...MOVING TO DETROIT TO INDY TO PADUCAH AROUND DAYBREAK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 06Z FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEST LIFT AND MOISTURE GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF A HIGH PROBABILITY/LOW QPF EVENT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID MARCH...CLOSE TO 50 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE CLOUDS. --SCHOTT LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A MILD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO DEAL WITH FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR POOL TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH AND EAST HAS SHIFTED WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION AS THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL CHARACTERIZED BY AOA NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...A SORT OF SPRING PREVIEW. THE CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS NOW TRENDING TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MAY NOT BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION. THIS TREND IF REALIZED...COULD AFFECT OUR PCPN CHANCES ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING SOME LIKELY POPS OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWARD AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COLDER AIR TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A LITTLE BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD. --21 AVIATION DISCUSSION (12Z TAFS)... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE BREWING FOR AVIATION CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING...SOME GUSTS NEARING 18 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. CLOUD COVER/CIGS NOT AN ISSUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND LOWERING CIGS OCCURS...THOUGH NO CIGS BELOW 4K FT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE BWG AND SDF TAF SITES...MAINLY AFTER 09Z. --SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ERN U.S. WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH LATE SUN AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I285K-I300K SURFACES TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT IT IS DRY ON THOSE SURFACES. PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST IS GOING TO BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY FOR HIGHS. MIXED UP TO 800 MB TODAY ACCORDING TO A TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SAWYER AND WINDS WERE GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA. PROBLEM IS BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW HAVE A STRONG INVERSION AT 900 MB OR BELOW AND THINKING IS THAT THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AVAILABLE AND THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER WIND MAX THAT COMES ACROSS AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY. THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS...DOWNSLOPE WILL COME INTO PLAY AND WENT ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 2C...MIXING THESE DOWN WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. DID NOT GO THAT WARM...BUT THINKING IS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IS POSSIBLE EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE LESS MIXING AND COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN. FOR TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. DO NOT THINK WE WILL TOTALLY DECOUPLE AND WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH. WILL GO WITH COLDER GUIDANCE THOUGH AND HAVE LOWS FROM 15 TO 25 WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS CLOSE TO ADJMVR FOR TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. .LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT)... PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT ARE STILL PRESENT. BULK OF LIFT FM SHORTWAVE/STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND H3 DIVERGENCE IN LFQ OF 100KT JET IS FOCUSED OVR LK SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CWA. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING PCPN AS BLYR TEMPS APPEAR TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING SUN NIGHT THANKS TO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ON SUN AND STEADY SW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF-ARW DEPICTS WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG SOUTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT WITH ANY KIND OF GRADIENT SW FLOW...IMAGINE TEMPS COULD STAY WARM. MIN TEMPS NO LOWER THAN 40 DEGREES IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR SEEM POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD TAPER WEST TO EAST ON MON AS STRONGER DYNAMICS SHIFT INTO EASTERN LAKES AND QUEBEC. ONLY MECHANISM LEFT TO GENERATE PCPN WILL BE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO MON NIGHT. KEPT SOME SMALL POPS GOING FOR THIS REASON...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ABOVE H85 LOOKS LIMITED. SO...MAY JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. NO FOG ADDED NOW AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE OFFSET BY INCREASING WINDS OFF THE SFC INTO TUE AS STRONG WIND MAX FM H95-H85 APPROACHES. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SIMILAR WITH WEST H85 WINDS 40-45KT BY 12Z TUE. STABLE PROFILE IN LOWER LAYERS BUT WITH MID 980S SFC LOW OVR ONTARIO INCREASING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT CHANCE OF GALES ON LK SUPERIOR AND GUSTY WINDS OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON TUE. OTHER THAN 12Z GFS...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT. A COUPLE OF PRIMARY FRONTAL PASSAGES TO FOCUS ON. FIRST FRONT COMING THROUGH TUE HAS BEEN WELL AGREED UPON MANY MODEL RUNS IN A ROW. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH PRES OVR NORTHERN PLAINS ALSO IS A PERSISTENT SIGNAL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROPEL FRONT ACROSS UPR MI QUICKLY ON TUE. IN FACT...WEST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN BEFORE DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN LATER TUE. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR CNTRL/EAST...BUT MAY SEE SITUATION SIMILAR TO TODAY WHERE PASSAGE OF FRONT JUST HELPED MIX HIGHER AND BOOST TEMPS. INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. BY NOT GOING WITH 12Z GFS (WHICH SHOWS STRONGER LOW PASSING ACROSS CNTRL GREAT LAKES WED WITH PCPN INTO UPR MI)...WILL CONTINUE MID SHIFT IDEA OF GOING WITH A DRY PERIOD ON INTO WED AND EVEN EXTENDED THIS DRY PERIOD INTO WED NIGHT BASED ON 12Z ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES/CANADIAN/UKMET SLOWING ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT UNTIL THU. THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW FOR PTYPE EVEN AHEAD OF FRONT. COLDER AIR THEN POURS INTO UPR LAKES ON NORTH WINDS FRI-SAT. 00Z GFS WAS PREFERRED FOR THESE LONGER RANGE PERIODS AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. RESULT IS TEMPS FALLING BACK BLO NORMAL WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW...MAINLY VIA LK SUPERIOR. 12Z ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVR EASTERN CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE. COORD WITH DLH/GRB/APX && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MICHELS LONG TERM...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPING AS THE ERN NOAM TROF DEPARTS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE PACIFIC AIRMASS...THE WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM SHRTWV FROM SRN SASK INTO WRN ND WAS SUPPORTING LITTLE PCPN. SOME -RA WAS NOTED THOUGH OVER ERN ND AND NW MN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT/TROF EXTENDING S FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN MANITOBA. UPSTREAM TAMDAR SNDGS AND 00Z KINL SNDG SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL WARM AND DRY LAYER ABOVE 900 MB. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROF HAD BROUGHT MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS FROM MN AND NRN WI INTO UPPER MI. TODAY...SOME -FZDZ MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER WEST UPPER MI IN AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE SRLY FLOW AS A DRY LAYER PERSISTS ABOVE THE MOISTURE IN THE SFC-875 MB LAYER. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK TO MODERATE QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. THE 00Z NAM WAS COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE PCPN AMOUNTS NEAR 0.05 INCH. SINCE THE GFS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LCL LAPS-WRF AND HIGH RES WRF WHICH ALSO SHOW LIGHT PCPN...CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AS THE MODERATE DYNAMICS COULD STILL OVERCOME THE PROMINENT 900-700 DRY LAYER. THE GFS FCST SNDGS SUGGEST THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING MIGHT LOWER TEMP PROFILE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW. SINCE THE HIGH RES MDLS SHOW A MORE REALISTIC WARM DEPICTION...COMPARED TO UPSTREAM OBS...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON(FREEZING LEVEL AOA 2K FT)...WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN. TONIGHT INTO SAT...AS THE PCPN DEPARTS THIS EVENING...EXPECT ENOUGH COOLING FOR POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH SNOW. MDLS SHOW THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF MOVING INTO W UPPER MI WITH 850 MB TEMP DOWN TO AROUND -10C. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY LES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LAKE ICE AND SHORT FETCH. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -12C WITH THE GREATER INVERSION HEIGHTS MAY BE OVERDONE...LOW LVL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EXITING NRN ONTARIO COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE NE CWA. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC AND MID LVL RDG BUILDING IN SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TOWARD SRN WI FOR W WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. SO...MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS INLAND TO THE LOWER 20S CLOSER TO THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY OR SUN NIGHT. SO...SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. SUN NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BRING A SHRTWV INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AGAIN WITH LITTLE MOISTURE INFLOW EXPECTED AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THIS FEATURE...NO RA/SN WAS ADDED YET. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MST SAT MAR 10 2007 .DISCUSSION... 21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NE NM WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH INTO SE NM. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS INTO THE GALLUP VCNTY. RADAR AND SFC OBS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MOSTLY VIRGA FALLING FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXCEPT FOR A FEW 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CO AND NM SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS A 80-100 KNOT JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER AZ INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING 500MB UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE SFC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND CUTS OFF OVER EASTERN NM. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KSAF AND KABQ AREAS WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER WEST TX AND EASTERN NM SUNDAY EXPECT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO REDEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ABOVE 8500 FT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ALONG THE E SLOPES AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER SFC MOISTURE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. A LARGE GRADIENT FROM SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO COOL AND SHOWERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY SO TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 32 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 25 62 21 67 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 28 62 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 40 73 38 76 / 5 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 17 50 14 51 / 30 5 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 56 28 60 / 10 5 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 21 46 19 49 / 20 20 5 0 TAOS............................ 28 54 22 60 / 10 10 5 0 SANTA FE........................ 33 57 29 62 / 10 10 5 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 59 32 64 / 10 5 5 0 ESPANOLA........................ 35 62 33 67 / 10 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 64 39 68 / 5 5 5 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 66 37 70 / 5 5 5 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 62 36 66 / 5 5 5 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 65 38 69 / 5 5 5 0 SOCORRO......................... 42 68 38 71 / 5 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 56 30 62 / 10 10 5 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 59 31 64 / 10 20 5 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 44 64 38 65 / 10 5 5 10 RUIDOSO......................... 39 57 36 57 / 20 20 20 10 RATON........................... 32 53 25 63 / 20 20 5 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 32 53 30 58 / 10 10 5 5 ROY............................. 36 54 33 64 / 10 5 5 5 CLAYTON......................... 39 52 35 65 / 30 20 10 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 42 61 40 67 / 10 5 5 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 41 57 40 65 / 20 20 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 44 62 42 63 / 20 30 10 20 CLOVIS.......................... 43 57 41 61 / 40 40 30 30 PORTALES........................ 44 60 42 62 / 50 50 30 30 ROSWELL......................... 48 63 45 64 / 20 20 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
240 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007 .SHORT TERM... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DECOUPLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. HOWEVER UPSTREAM UNDER HIGH SNOW MELT CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER DEW POINTS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG. THEN WITH GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SLOW RECOVERY. PREFER COLDER GFS MOS FOR SUNDAY HIGHS. STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...AND WITH UPSTREAM AREAS SNOW FREE...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE REASONABLE...EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM... SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. REGION. NO MAJOR CYCLOGENISIS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...SFC HIGH TO BUILD EWD OVER WI TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EVENING. SOME CONCERN FOR FOG LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOW 20S...AND LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THINK ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 03/06/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
845 AM PDT SUN MAR 11 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH SNOW LEVEL. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING LATER IN THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COPIOUS ON THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE 2.5 TO 3 INCHES ON THE COAST AND OLYMPIC PENINSULA...2 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH CASCADES...1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES...GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WITH A NOTICEABLE HOLE NORTH SEATTLE NORTHWARD. FORECASTS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING ARE MORE OR LESS ON TRACK 12 HOURS INTO THE STORM WITH 18 HOURS OR SO OF RAIN STILL TO COME. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A LULL OF SORTS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND NO FLOOD WARNINGS OTHER THAN SKOKOMISH WILL BE COMING OUT ANYTIME SOON. WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS STILL HAVE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT FOR A CHANGE TO SHOWERS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY...AT LEAST IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA. GFS HAS NO PCPN AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVORS A RAIN SHADOW ANYWAY. THOUGH MOS POPS ARE IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY...MAY GO OUT ON A LIMB AND REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW ZONES ON MONDAY. WEAKER SYSTEM TUESDAY SEEMS MAINLY TO AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL PROBABLY KEEP CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE...LIKELY NORTH. BURKE .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW WITH AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND AIR MASS MIDWEEK GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO SOME MODEST RIDGING...WITH H5 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 570`S BY THU NIGHT AND FRI. THAT LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND THU AND FRI ARE DRY IN THE GFS. A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP THREATENS WED AND SAT...FOR NOW WE JUST SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THRU THE PERIOD. MM && .AVIATION...THE STRONG FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND WHILE STRONG FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45KT SSW WIND AT 1500 FT AT KSEA WHICH IS PRODUCING AREAS OF LLWS. EXPECT SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE JUST N OF KSEA IN THE VICINITY OF A MESO LOW THAT PERSISTS E OF THE OLYMPICS. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT ABOVE 015 TO IMPACT THE AIRSPACE AROUND SEATTLE. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCT-BKN LAYERS AT 010...020...AND 035. VIS GENERALLY 5SM -RA BUT IS OCCASIONALLY POPPING DOWN TO 1-3 SM IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE THRU ABOUT 20Z...THEN TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD INCREASING RAINFALL RATES. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KSEA 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME. WIND AT KSEA WILL VARY BETWEEN 18015KT WITH LLWS...TO 18020G30KT DURING PERIODS WHEN MESO LOW DROPS A LITTLE S INTO PUGET SOUND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THE KSEA TERMINAL TODAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECT WIND TO SHIFT TO 22015G25KT AND CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KSEA AS THE FRONT DRIVES SE...FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND THE OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW DROPS SWD. ALBRECHT && .MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN IN A BIT OF A LULL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BUT SLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE INCREASING AS A DEEP LOW IN THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS DRIVES ENE TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND. EXPECT FULL GALES TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL...BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSE GALE IF GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE WATERS BY 06Z WITH WINDS GENERALLY TURNING WLY THROUGH THE STRAIT AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE. ALBRECHT && .AVALANCHE...RAIN, RAIN AND MORE RAIN HAVE COMBINED WITH MELT AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS TO SATURATE AND WEAKEN UPPER PART OF THE SNOWPACK AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER. CURRENT WARNINGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MT HOOD AREA FOR LATE TODAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE SAGS SOUTHWARD. WHILE MARGINAL WEATHER HAS LIMITED FIELD OBSERVATIONS, EXPECT THAT NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN MOST STEEPER TERRAIN. WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN EXPECTED NEXT 18-24 HOURS, WATER SHOULD PENETRATE DEEPER INTO THE PACK AND ALLOW FOR SOME LARGER WET SLIDES TO BRING DOWN ALL THE SNOW ACCUMULATED SINCE MID-FEBRUARY. WITH SOME SKI AREAS CLOSED DUE TO ANTICIPATED WEATHER, HOPE THIS MESSAGE OF BAD AND/OR DANGEROUS BACK COUNTRY CONDITIONS WILL BE HEEDED. SEE WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS. MOORE && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .FLOOD WATCH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT LEWIS...SAN JUAN...ISLAND...AND KITSAP COUNTIES. .GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND HOOD CANAL AND CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS. $$ WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE