SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
348 AM PST SAT MAR 10 2007
...DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME BEGINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
.SHORT TERM...NLY PRES GRADS HAVE INCREASED...AND WERE PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MTNS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR. EXCEPT FOR ISOLD GUSTS IN THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS...WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MTNS THIS
MORNING. NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME LOW CLDS/LOCALLY DENSE
FOG TO BANK UP AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A./VTU
COUNTY MTNS...THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS...
THE CUYAMA VALLEY AND SERN SLO COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID OR LATE MORNING. W OF THE MTNS...LOW CLOUDS
WERE LESS WDSPRD THIS MORNING...THANKS TO OFFSHR TRENDS OF
THE W-E PRES GRADS. CLOUDS WERE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CST
OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...BUT MAY EXPAND INLAND A BIT BY MORNING.
MARINE LAYER IS STILL JUST BARELY DEEP ENOUGH THAT SOME CLOUDS COULD
PUSH INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VLY...BUT XPCT LITTLE PENETRATION INTO THE
VLYS THIS MORNING. PROFILERS WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONT
TODAY...WITH WARMING SPREADING INTO LOWER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
XPCT CONSIDERABLE WARMING IN THE VLYS TODAY...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MARINE
INFLUENCE TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM RISING TOO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT INTERIOR SXNS SHOULD STILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM FRIDAY. XPCT SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS.
UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INTO CA
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BUILD WWD INTO CA. ALTHOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...GRADS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CAUSE GUSTY NELY WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES
TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE VLYS AND LOCALLY INTO THE CSTL
SXNS OF L.A. COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...XPCT WINDS TO
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LVLS...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE IN THE
MTNS. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...SIGNIFICANT RISES IN HGTS/THICKNESSES
AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850 AND 950 MB...THERE SHOULD BE
QUITE A WARM UP IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING HUGE WARMING TO ALL
IMDT BEACH AREAS...BUT ACROSS INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CSTL PLAIN AND
IN THE VLYS...XPCT 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF WARMING IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MANY VLY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND IT COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ACRS INTERIOR SXNS OF
THE L.A. COUNTY CSTL PLAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS AS WELL. XPCT SOME RECORD TO
BE TIED OR BROKEN ACRS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.
LOW LVL GRADS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTY
WINDS AGAIN IN THE MTNS...VLYS AND SOME CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES. IT WILL BE A VERY WARM NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND WHERE IT REMAINS WINDS...WITH TEMPS PROBABLY
STAYING ABOVE 70 IN THOSE AREAS. MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL WARMING
AT 850 AND 950 MB...SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS...MAKING FOR A VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM MID MARCH
DAY IN MOST AREAS. WARMER VLY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 90S ON MONDAY. TEMPS ACRS INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CSTL
PLAIN FROM SLO COUNTY THROUGH L.A. COUNTY WILL LIKELY RISE WELL INTO
THE 80S...WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE ACRS INTERIOR L.A. AND VTU COUNTY
CSTL AREAS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS ABOUT 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY. MANY DAILY RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL ON MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT...VERY DRY CONDITIONS...SOME GUSTY
WINDS...AND THE LACK OF RAIN THIS WINTER WILL LIKELY CAUSE FIRE
WEATHER CONDS TO APCH CRITICAL LVLS IN THE VLYS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES AND THE SANTA MONICA MTNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN THE
MTNS OF L.A....VTU AND SBA COUNTIES...THE DRYING WILL START
EARLIER...SO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONT
THROUGH MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUE AND WED...SO
XPCT GRADUAL COOLING EACH DAY...QUICKEST ACRS THE CSTL PLAIN AS
OFFSHORE GRADS TURN ONSHORE. TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH 90 IN THE
WARMER VLYS ON TUE...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT DO SO ON WED. THEN...
XPCT MOSTLY MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN TEMPS THU AND FRI...
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS MOST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS NO THREAT OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
10/1135Z
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS VERY PATCHY...BUT ANNOYINGLY PLACED...MARINE
LAYER ON EITHER SIDE OF KLAX/KLGB...NEAR KSMX....AND NEAR KSBA.
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1500 FT.
FOR TAF SITES IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY....ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG TO MOVE INTO
KSMX. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP WITH CLEAR FORECAST FOR
KSMX.
FOR COASTAL/VALLEY TAFS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY. WILL EXPECT SOME SLIGHT VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSBA/KOXR...4-6 MILES...BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.
FOR KLAX/KLGB...WILL INDICATE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AND VSBYS
BETWEEN 3-5 MILES BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z AS STRATUS POISED TO SURGE NORTH
FROM ORANGE COUNTY. AFTER STRATUS/FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND AFTERNOON 6-10 KNOT SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED.
FOR KBUR/KVNY...WILL GO WITH CLEAR FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SAID
FORECAST IS MODERATE AT BEST. WITH MARINE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FEET
STRATUS/FOG COULD GET INTO THE VALLEY TAFS WITH A GOOD PUSH. IF THE
MARINE LAYER DOES GET INTO THE VALLEY TAFS...WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS
BELOW 800 FEET AND VSBYS BETWEEN 2-4 MILES. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GO
WITH CLEAR FORECAST AS STRATUS DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT PUSH AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...THOMPSON
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PST FRI MAR 9 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS THIS SUNDAY
AT 2 AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING AND EVENING ACARS DATA SHOWED THE INVERSION NEAR 1800 FEET.
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY TONIGHT IS THE UNSEASONABLE ARRIVAL AND
PERSISTENT STAYING POWER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO 26C
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BE TWO VERY WARM/HOT DAYS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH IS AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS BUT INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR
A STRONG WIND EVENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE BUCKLES SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE
INTENSIFIES ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE ZERO.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR VERY LOW HUMIDITIES BUT THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME WIND.
&&
.AVIATION...
100430Z...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT THE MARINE LAYER HAD LOWERED
TO AROUND 1300 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN W
SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT WAS SLOWER TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. STRATUS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT IN COASTAL AND VALLEY SECTIONS
OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY BUT SOMEWHAT MORE PATCHY OVER ORANGE COUNTY.
STRATUS/FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND MAINLY APPEAR
IN THE FAR SOUTH. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE COMBINED WITH OBSCURED
TERRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 800-1300 FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL RANGE IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ALL COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SATURDAY.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AS ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEE LAXRFWSGX.
&&
$$
CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST FRI MAR 9 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME BEGINS THIS SUNDAY
AT 2 AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING AND EVENING ACARS DATA SHOWED THE INVERSION NEAR 1800 FEET.
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG MAY FORM IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY TONIGHT IS THE UNSEASONABLE ARRIVAL AND
PERSISTENT STAYING POWER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO 26C
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BE TWO VERY WARM/HOT DAYS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS WHICH IS AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IN THE 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS BUT INGREDIENTS NOT COMING TOGETHER FOR
A STRONG WIND EVENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGE BUCKLES SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN FACT...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE
INTENSIFIES ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE ZERO.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR VERY LOW HUMIDITIES BUT THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME WIND.
&&
.AVIATION...
092130Z...SCATTERED STRATUS LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME BROKEN-OVERCAST
AFTER 00Z AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. BASES INITIALLY AROUND FL015 LOWERING
AFTER 06Z TO FL007 WITH TOPS TO FL015. AIRPORTS WITH ELEVATIONS IN
THIS RANGE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
EARLIER CLEARING INLAND SATURDAY MORNING...CLOSER TO 16Z. FOR
SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...BELOW FL006...MAY
RESULT IN DENSE FOG AT COASTAL AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT/PUSHED OFFSHORE BY INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND INLAND VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEE LAXRFWSGX.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...MAXWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
955 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2007
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF HIER REFLECTIVITIES
OVER NW WI IN LEFT EXIT OF 100KT H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING SHRTWV MOVING
INTO NW MN. ALTHOUGH LLVL MSTR REMAINS QUITE LIMITED PER 00Z GRB
RAOB/RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS...BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SCNTRL
GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOOK TO JET AXIS ON WV IMAGERY...FCST
LEFT EXIT UPR DVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC (IN THE
CRITICAL H85-75 LYR)/HIER QPF AS SHOWN BY 18Z GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LATEST DVLPMNTS...AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF
HIER REFLECTIVITIES ACRS THE SRN TIER. SUPPORT FM UKMET INCRSD
CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WL LIMIT COVG OF HIER POPS TO THE
SCNTRL.
DESPITE THE WARMTH TODAY WITH HI TEMPS REACHING THE 50S EXCEPT
DOWNWIND OF LK MI...LATEST RIVER GAGES SHOW LTL RECOVERY IN STAGE.
DRY NATURE OF AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED MELT/RUNOFF.
KC
.PREVIOUS FORECAST (ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT)...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN NEW MEXICO WITH
A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NW
AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THERE IS
ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THIS WILL AFFECT
THE CWA TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NAM SHOWING 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING
THROUGH 12Z MON BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.
MOISTURE ALSO MOVES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT AND THEN EXITS THE AREA MON
MORNING. NAM SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT WITH SOME LIFT. MOISTURE MOVES OUT
MON MORNING EVEN THOUGH LIFT CONTINUES. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS. PROBLEM IS ATMOSPHERE IS
AWFULLY DRY AS TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW AROUND 15Z SHOWED VERY DRY
AIR IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PROBLEM IS RIBBON OF MOISTURE
IS VERY NARROW AND MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY...SO DRY AIR HAS TO BE
OVERCOME FIRST. NOT SURE IF DRY AIR WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY AND KEPT
HIGH CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THIS FOR TONIGHT. DRY AIR IS SUBSTANTIAL
AS DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MIXING GOING ON. BECAUSE OF THE LOW DEW
POINTS...NOT SURE ABOUT EARLIER THINKING ABOUT LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FOR MONDAY NOW. THINKING IS THAT GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT BOTH HAVE IN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WILL GO MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR LESS CLOUD COVER. QUICK
LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE LOW CEILINGS GOING ON IN CANADA
WHERE SYSTEM IS COMING FROM. IF DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN
THE 30S...THEN LOW CLOUDS WOULD BE A GOOD BET. SINCE DURATION OF ANY
PCPN WILL BE BRIEF...NOT SURE THAT DEW POINTS WILL GET THAT HIGH
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER...THAN LOW CLOUDS WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO FORM. WILL GO AGAINST THE LOW CLOUDS FORMING
FOR TONIGHT AND STICKING AROUND ON MON AND WILL GO WARMER FOR MON
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AVAILABLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON MON AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING...BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ON MON A BIT FROM GOING FORECAST
BECAUSE OF MORE SUNSHINE. LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN HEAD BACK NORTH ON MON
NORTH OF THE LAKE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.
MICHELS
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MON NIGHT IN WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF OF
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUE AFTN. TROUBLE IS IT IS PRETTY DRY...SO
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES...HAVE KEPT DRY ATTM.
CONVERGENCE IS MAIN TRIGGER FOR PCPN ON TUE ALONG FRONT. Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT BUT CLOSER LOOK AT QN VECTORS SHOWS COLD AIR
IS MOVING IN AS FAST AS WARM AIR IS DEPARTING. THUS...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR LIFT IS MINIMAL AND EXPECT FRONT TO BE MOSTLY INACTIVE.
DRYING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER ALSO DOES NOT HELP PCPN CHANCES. 12 HR
QPF FM BOTH NAM/GFS ENDING AT 00Z IS NEAR ZERO. KEPT 20 POPS ALONG
FRONT...BUT CUT THE POPS IN AFTN OVR ALL BUT SE CWA.
DESPITE A PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS TUE COULD END UP QUITE
WARM DUE TO INCREASED MIXING DEPTH AND 950-900MB TEMPS STILL WELL
ABOVE 0C. HAVE FEELING THAT EVEN AFTER COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN AFTN
TEMPS MAY REACH WELL INTO 50S FOR CNTRL AND EAST. WEST WINDS WILL
ONLY AID IN DOWNSLOPING FOR BARAGA/MARQUETTE/MUNISING AND EVENTUALLY
ESCANABA AND MANISTIQUE. ADJUSTED TEMPS TOWARD WARMER ETA MOS
GUIDANCE. RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS BEGINS TUE NIGHT AS READINGS
FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
BUILDING AGREEMENT ON STRIPE OF PCPN ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES LATER
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 12Z/MARCH 10 RUN OF GFS MOST EMPHATIC WITH IDEA
INITIALLY BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ALL ON BOARD. FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH AREA TUE WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. TIGHTER
H85 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALSO SOUTH OF UPR MI. HOWEVER...COMBINATION
OF PVA FM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO UPR LAKES...H7 2D-FRONTOGENESIS...
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RRQ OF 150KT 250MB JET OVR ONTARIO/
QUEBEC SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BANDED PCPN
INTO WI AND MI. COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO PTYPE OF SNOW. SFC HIGH
AND DRY AIR PRESENT IN EARLIER GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALSO FADING SO SOME
PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAYBE I AM ASKING FOR TOO MUCH...BUT WOULD ALSO
LIKE THE CANADIAN TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION...IT REALLY
IS NOT...AS HIGH PRES/DRY AIR DOMINATES OVR UPR MI AND WI. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NOW OVR MOST OF CWA...DRY OVR LK SUPERIOR. LATER TRENDS
WILL DICTATE IF WE NEED HIGHER POPS/QPF. IF PCPN DOES MATERIALIZE
...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW AS SOME
NEGATIVE EPV IS PRESENT ABOVE THE SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS LAYER. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ALMOST A 50 PCT CHANCE OF 0.3/12 HR QPF OVR
SOUTHERN CWA SO THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL.
FINAL PERIODS OF FORECAST NEEDED FEW CHANGES. STILL LOOKS MUCH
COOLER COMPARED TO WARM SPELL OVR AREA NOW WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF
LES OFF LK SUPERIOR. REMOVED POPS FARTHER INLAND AS MOST PCPN WILL
BE NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWERED TEMPS A NOTCH THU-FRI
AS THERMAL TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS BLO -15C SWEEPS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENCES IN HOW DEEP AND PERSISTENT THE TROUGH WILL
BE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS JOINS 12Z ECMWF IN DEPICTING
CLIPPER SFC LOW OVR GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. HPC PREFERENCE WAS
TOWARD EARLIER GFS RUNS WHICH INDICATED HIGH PRES WOULD LINGER. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND INCONSISTENCY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS.
COORD WITH APX/GRB/DLH/LOT
JLA
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2007
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN NEW MEXICO WITH
A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC NW
AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THERE IS
ALSO A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THIS WILL AFFECT
THE CWA TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NAM SHOWING 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINING
THROUGH 12Z MON BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.
MOISTURE ALSO MOVES IN QUICKLY TONIGHT AND THEN EXITS THE AREA MON
MORNING. NAM SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ON I290K-I305K
SURFACES MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT WITH SOME LIFT. MOISTURE MOVES OUT
MON MORNING EVEN THOUGH LIFT CONTINUES. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING AND
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS. PROBLEM IS ATMOSPHERE IS
AWFULLY DRY AS TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW AROUND 15Z SHOWED VERY DRY
AIR IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PROBLEM IS RIBBON OF MOISTURE
IS VERY NARROW AND MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY...SO DRY AIR HAS TO BE
OVERCOME FIRST. NOT SURE IF DRY AIR WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY AND KEPT
HIGH CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THIS FOR TONIGHT. DRY AIR IS SUBSTANTIAL
AS DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MIXING GOING ON. BECAUSE OF THE LOW DEW
POINTS...NOT SURE ABOUT EARLIER THINKING ABOUT LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FOR MONDAY NOW. THINKING IS THAT GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH
OVERDONE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT BOTH HAVE IN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND WILL GO MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR LESS CLOUD COVER. QUICK
LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE LOW CEILINGS GOING ON IN CANADA
WHERE SYSTEM IS COMING FROM. IF DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN
THE 30S...THEN LOW CLOUDS WOULD BE A GOOD BET. SINCE DURATION OF ANY
PCPN WILL BE BRIEF...NOT SURE THAT DEW POINTS WILL GET THAT HIGH
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. IF THE
PRECIPITATION STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER...THAN LOW CLOUDS WOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO FORM. WILL GO AGAINST THE LOW CLOUDS FORMING
FOR TONIGHT AND STICKING AROUND ON MON AND WILL GO WARMER FOR MON
WITH MORE SUNSHINE AVAILABLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON MON AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING...BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
TIME. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ON MON A BIT FROM GOING FORECAST
BECAUSE OF MORE SUNSHINE. LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN HEAD BACK NORTH ON MON
NORTH OF THE LAKE. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN)...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MON NIGHT IN WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF OF
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUE AFTN. TROUBLE IS IT IS PRETTY DRY...SO
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES...HAVE KEPT DRY ATTM.
CONVERGENCE IS MAIN TRIGGER FOR PCPN ON TUE ALONG FRONT. Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT BUT CLOSER LOOK AT QN VECTORS SHOWS COLD AIR
IS MOVING IN AS FAST AS WARM AIR IS DEPARTING. THUS...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR LIFT IS MINIMAL AND EXPECT FRONT TO BE MOSTLY INACTIVE.
DRYING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER ALSO DOES NOT HELP PCPN CHANCES. 12 HR
QPF FM BOTH NAM/GFS ENDING AT 00Z IS NEAR ZERO. KEPT 20 POPS ALONG
FRONT...BUT CUT THE POPS IN AFTN OVR ALL BUT SE CWA.
DESPITE A PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS TUE COULD END UP QUITE
WARM DUE TO INCREASED MIXING DEPTH AND 950-900MB TEMPS STILL WELL
ABOVE 0C. HAVE FEELING THAT EVEN AFTER COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN AFTN
TEMPS MAY REACH WELL INTO 50S FOR CNTRL AND EAST. WEST WINDS WILL
ONLY AID IN DOWNSLOPING FOR BARAGA/MARQUETTE/MUNISING AND EVENTUALLY
ESCANABA AND MANISTIQUE. ADJUSTED TEMPS TOWARD WARMER ETA MOS
GUIDANCE. RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS BEGINS TUE NIGHT AS READINGS
FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
BUILDING AGREEMENT ON STRIPE OF PCPN ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES LATER
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 12Z/MARCH 10 RUN OF GFS MOST EMPHATIC WITH IDEA
INITIALLY BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ALL ON BOARD. FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH AREA TUE WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. TIGHTER
H85 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALSO SOUTH OF UPR MI. HOWEVER...COMBINATION
OF PVA FM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO UPR LAKES...H7 2D-FRONTOGENESIS...AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN RRQ OF 150KT 250MB JET OVR ONTARIO/QUEBEC
SHOULD RESULT IN SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND BANDED PCPN INTO WI
AND MI. COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO PTYPE OF SNOW. SFC HIGH AND DRY
AIR PRESENT IN EARLIER GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALSO FADING SO SOME PCPN IS
EXPECTED. MAYBE I AM ASKING FOR TOO MUCH...BUT WOULD ALSO LIKE THE
CANADIAN TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION...IT REALLY IS
NOT...AS HIGH PRES/DRY AIR DOMINATES OVR UPR MI AND WI. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NOW OVR MOST OF CWA...DRY OVR LK SUPERIOR. LATER TRENDS
WILL DICTATE IF WE NEED HIGHER POPS/QPF. IF PCPN DOES MATERIALIZE
...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW AS SOME
NEGATIVE EPV IS PRESENT ABOVE THE SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS LAYER. 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ALMOST A 50 PCT CHANCE OF 0.3/12 HR QPF OVR
SOUTHERN CWA SO THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL.
FINAL PERIODS OF FORECAST NEEDED FEW CHANGES. STILL LOOKS MUCH
COOLER COMPARED TO WARM SPELL OVR AREA NOW WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF
LES OFF LK SUPERIOR. REMOVED POPS FARTHER INLAND AS MOST PCPN WILL
BE NEAR LK SUPERIOR IN NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWERED TEMPS A NOTCH THU-FRI
AS THERMAL TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS BLO -15C SWEEPS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENCES IN HOW DEEP AND PERSISTENT THE TROUGH WILL
BE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS JOINS 12Z ECMWF IN DEPICTING
CLIPPER SFC LOW OVR GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. HPC PREFERENCE WAS
TOWARD EARLIER GFS RUNS WHICH INDICATED HIGH PRES WOULD LINGER. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND INCONSISTENCY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS.
COORD WITH APX/GRB/DLH/LOT
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MICHELS
LONG TERM...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1107 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING, BUMP MAX TEMPS UP
2 TO 4 DEGREES AND DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA BY THREE HOURS. SYR HAD A TRACE AMOUNT OF FZRA THEN
TEMPS ROSE QUICKLY ABOVE FREEZING, AT RME TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S
WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED YET. RRM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 706 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INTO THE ZONES
AND HWO. RADAR INDICATED THAT A BAND OF PRECIP ASSCTD WITH THE
INCREASED SWRLY LL ISEN FLO WAS ENHANCING...INSTEAD OF FALLING
APART...REVERSING A TREND SEEN EARLIER THIS AM. LL BNDRY ACRS NC NY
APPARENTLY HAS ENUF LIFT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPS ARE WELL BLO FRZG THINK A BREIF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR NC AND NE ZONES. IT WILL NOT LAST
LONG ENUF OR BE WIDESPREAD ENUF FOR AN ADVY AND WILL BE OUT OF NC
NY SHORTLY.
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
ADDED A TEMPO FOR -FZRA FOR SYR...WILL WAIT AND SEE IF BAND OF
PRECIP REMAINS TOGETHER FOR FZRA FOR KRME. AFTER THIS BAND OF FZRA
PASSES...MAINLY MID CLDS AND A FEW LIGHT VFR-TYPE SHRA UNTIL THE
SFC FRNT APPRCHES. AS THE FRNT APPRCHES LL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE ENUF TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR. THIS
WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST NEPANALYSIS. FROM THE SFC BNDRY IN
THE OH VLLY AND POINTS JUST TO THE W...CIGS/VSBYS DROP MARKEDLY.
AS THE FRNT SLICES THRU THE REGION...WE SHUD SEE THE SAME AND HAVE
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS ACCORDINGLY TO MVFR AND IFR LATE AFTRN/ERLY
EVE. ONCE THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS LATER TONIGHT...SEE AN
MVFR-VFR SCT- BKN SC DEC.
KEPT LLWS IN KRME AND KSYR GIVEN THAT THEY ARE STILL N OF A LL
BNDRY AND HAVE ERLY FLO AT THE SFC. AMDARS DATA SHOWG WINDS OF 240
DEGREES 35 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK IN NC NY. SO LLWS WILL CONT UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE S AT THESE SITES BY 15Z OR SO.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA FROM SRN ONT S THRU ERN LWR MI TO THE
OH AND TENN VLLY ATTM. THE ACVTY WAS MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER N TWD
ONT. THIS PRECIP HAS FORMED IN ASSCTN WITH AN UPR LVL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC FRNT THAT WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE ERN LAKE AND ERN OH
VLLY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS A LL SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING
A SIGNFCT AMNT OF MOISTURE NE TWD WRN NY/WRN PA. LIFTG AT MID-
LVL/S ASSCTD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR WAVE WAS STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ENUF ABV THIS MOIST LAYER TO TRIGGER SHRA. THE SHRA
WERE MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER N WHERE THE LIFTG WAS DEEPER. THIS IS
SEEN WELL IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE TERM ON THE 290K SFC LATER TODAY.
IN ADDTN WITH A SWRLY FLO...THERE WILL BE PREFERENTIAL LL ADVTN N
AND W OF THE APPLACNS THRU THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE PLAIN WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHC/S OF SHRA LATER THIS MORNING THERE FIRST. THE
PRECIP WONT ARRIVE FARTHER S AND E IN C NY AND NE PA UNTIL THE
COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH THE LIFTG FROM THE UPR LVL WAVE ABV THE
INCREASING LL MOISTURE. I SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP FOR SC
NY/CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS AFTERN INTO EVE. SO WILL HV LIKELY
POPS FIRST IN NW CWA AND LATER TODAY/EVE IN THE SERN CWA.
FOR TONIGHT...A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO MOVG THRU
NY/PA ON BOTH GFS AND NAM WHICH LOOKS RSBL GIVEN THE DEEPING OF
THE UPR LVL TROF AND INCRSG SUBSDC. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP SAT NGT AND ERLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPR LVL PV LOBE AND ASSCTD COLD
CORE ALOFT THAT FOLLOWS THIS FIRST UPR LVL FEATURE FOR TODAY. THE
GFS IS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS PV LOBE AND TEMPS ALOFT
SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND SW- AND SW-- ON SUNDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING IN AFTRN. THE NAM IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER N AND E.
THE GFS HAS -10C AT 850 MB ACRS MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY 18Z WITH SOME
LES POSSIBLY...(MINOR). THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE. HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME AM FLURRIES TO NC NY FOR NOW AND NOT BITE OFF
ON THIS JUST YET. SUNDAY SHUD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS W/ AM
FLURRIES NC NY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CU/SC. REST OF CWA...SCT CU
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SKC BY AFTRN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE
A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH
CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL.
HYDROLOGY...
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND
10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH
ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL
RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO
3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND
THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT
SLOWLY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
706 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INTO THE ZONES
AND HWO. RADAR INDICATED THAT A BAND OF PRECIP ASSCTD WITH THE
INCREASED SWRLY LL ISEN FLO WAS ENHANCING...INSTEAD OF FALLING
APART...REVERSING A TREND SEEN EARLIER THIS AM. LL BNDRY ACRS NC NY
APPARENTLY HAS ENUF LIFT TO ENHANCE THIS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT TEMPS ARE WELL BLO FRZG THINK A BREIF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR NC AND NE ZONES. IT WILL NOT LAST
LONG ENUF OR BE WIDESPREAD ENUF FOR AN ADVY AND WILL BE OUT OF NC
NY SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...
ADDED A TEMPO FOR -FZRA FOR SYR...WILL WAIT AND SEE IF BAND OF
PRECIP REMAINS TOGETHER FOR FZRA FOR KRME. AFTER THIS BAND OF FZRA
PASSES...MAINLY MID CLDS AND A FEW LIGHT VFR-TYPE SHRA UNTIL THE
SFC FRNT APPRCHES. AS THE FRNT APPRCHES LL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE ENUF TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR. THIS
WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST NEPANALYSIS. FROM THE SFC BNDRY IN
THE OH VLLY AND POINTS JUST TO THE W...CIGS/VSBYS DROP MARKEDLY.
AS THE FRNT SLICES THRU THE REGION...WE SHUD SEE THE SAME AND HAVE
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS ACCORDINGLY TO MVFR AND IFR LATE AFTRN/ERLY
EVE. ONCE THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS LATER TONIGHT...SEE AN
MVFR-VFR SCT- BKN SC DEC.
KEPT LLWS IN KRME AND KSYR GIVEN THAT THEY ARE STILL N OF A LL
BNDRY AND HAVE ERLY FLO AT THE SFC. AMDARS DATA SHOWG WINDS OF 240
DEGREES 35 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK IN NC NY. SO LLWS WILL CONT UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE S AT THESE SITES BY 15Z OR SO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA FROM SRN ONT S THRU ERN LWR MI TO THE
OH AND TENN VLLY ATTM. THE ACVTY WAS MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER N TWD
ONT. THIS PRECIP HAS FORMED IN ASSCTN WITH AN UPR LVL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC FRNT THAT WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE ERN LAKE AND ERN OH
VLLY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS A LL SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING
A SIGNFCT AMNT OF MOISTURE NE TWD WRN NY/WRN PA. LIFTG AT MID-
LVL/S ASSCTD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR WAVE WAS STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ENUF ABV THIS MOIST LAYER TO TRIGGER SHRA. THE SHRA
WERE MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER N WHERE THE LIFTG WAS DEEPER. THIS IS
SEEN WELL IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE TERM ON THE 290K SFC LATER TODAY.
IN ADDTN WITH A SWRLY FLO...THERE WILL BE PREFERENTIAL LL ADVTN N
AND W OF THE APPLACNS THRU THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE PLAIN WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHC/S OF SHRA LATER THIS MORNING THERE FIRST. THE
PRECIP WONT ARRIVE FARTHER S AND E IN C NY AND NE PA UNTIL THE
COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH THE LIFTG FROM THE UPR LVL WAVE ABV THE
INCREASING LL MOISTURE. I SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP FOR SC
NY/CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS AFTERN INTO EVE. SO WILL HV LIKELY
POPS FIRST IN NW CWA AND LATER TODAY/EVE IN THE SERN CWA.
FOR TONIGHT...A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO MOVG THRU
NY/PA ON BOTH GFS AND NAM WHICH LOOKS RSBL GIVEN THE DEEPING OF
THE UPR LVL TROF AND INCRSG SUBSDC. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP SAT NGT AND ERLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPR LVL PV LOBE AND ASSCTD COLD
CORE ALOFT THAT FOLLOWS THIS FIRST UPR LVL FEATURE FOR TODAY. THE
GFS IS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS PV LOBE AND TEMPS ALOFT
SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND SW- AND SW-- ON SUNDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING IN AFTRN. THE NAM IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER N AND E.
THE GFS HAS -10C AT 850 MB ACRS MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY 18Z WITH SOME
LES POSSIBLY...(MINOR). THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE. HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME AM FLURRIES TO NC NY FOR NOW AND NOT BITE OFF
ON THIS JUST YET. SUNDAY SHUD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS W/ AM
FLURRIES NC NY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CU/SC. REST OF CWA...SCT CU
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SKC BY AFTRN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE
A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH
CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /10Z-06Z/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE LLWS OVR
RME AND SYR. THESE LOCATIONS CONT TO BE N OF A WRM FRNTL BNDRY
WHICH ACTUALLY IS STATIONARY. COLD DENSE AIR NR THE SFC APPEARS
TO BE STUCK N OF THE APPLCNS AND IN THE MOHAWK. ALOFT WARMER AIR
CONTS TO STREAM IN AND CREATE A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. VWP AND
ESP THE TAMADAR DATA CONTS TO SHOW A SWRLY FLO JUST BELOW 2000
FEET AGL UP TO 35 KTS WITH A LAYER BELOW THAT WHERE THE WINDS
PICK UP MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP LLWS IN BOTH OF THE TAFS THRU 12Z.
DON/T FEEL REST OF TAFS ARE HAVING AS MUCH SHEAR AS THE LL FLO IN
THESE PLACES HAS BEEN MORE SRLY AND THEY ARE S OF THIS
BNDRY/TERRAIN FEATURE. POTENTIAL IS THERE SO WILL MONITOR TAMDARS
AND 88D VWPS CLOSELY FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...SCT-BKN CI CLDS WERE ADVECTING INTO
UPSTATE NY SW TO WRN PA AND WRN NY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LVL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLLY. THIS CI WILL
CONT TO ADVECT IN OVRNGT BUT IT REMAINS THIN AS PER SATL AND
METARS. THE CI WILL THICKEN UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER TWD 12Z AS THE
UPR LVL LIFTG...LWR LVL WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN TIME OVRNGT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 12Z.
AFTER 12Z AS THE UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD INCREASING LL FLO MOVS
INTO THE REGION...CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP WORKS INTO NY AND NRN
PA. NEPANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FM LWR MI SW INTO IL THERE WAS
WIDESPREAD IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN SOME PLACES
IN IL THERE WAS EVEN VLIFR. NOT SURE WE WILL DROP THAT LO SINCE
THE LL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIONS ON SW FLO IS IMPEDED BY THE
APPLACHIANS A BIT...SO I CUD SEE THIS LOWER MOISTURE RIDING ABV
THE MTNS LEADG TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN FOG LATER TODAY.
INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP RAISE CIGS A BIT TOO.
THIS PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH OUR TAFS SITES
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z AND LAST THRU 00Z...EXCEPT AVP WHERE IT WILL
LINGER LONGER. AFTER 00Z...SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLDS AND MOISTURE
WILL HANG ARND WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TWD 06Z SUN. SEE IFR/MVFR
AFTER 00Z BUT POTENTIALLY IMPROVING THRU 06Z.
WILL BE FRESHENING UP TAFS SOON AT 10Z.
HYDROLOGY...
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND
10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH
ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL
RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO
3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND
THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT
SLOWLY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
445 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHRA FROM SRN ONT S THRU ERN LWR MI TO THE
OH AND TENN VLLY ATTM. THE ACVTY WAS MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER N TWD
ONT. THIS PRECIP HAS FORMED IN ASSCTN WITH AN UPR LVL WAVE AND
ASSCTD SFC FRNT THAT WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE ERN LAKE AND ERN OH
VLLY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS A LL SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING
A SIGNFCT AMNT OF MOISTURE NE TWD WRN NY/WRN PA. LIFTG AT MID-
LVL/S ASSCTD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPR WAVE WAS STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ENUF ABV THIS MOIST LAYER TO TRIGGER SHRA. THE SHRA
WERE MORE PRONOUNCED FARTHER N WHERE THE LIFTG WAS DEEPER. THIS IS
SEEN WELL IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE TERM ON THE 290K SFC LATER TODAY.
IN ADDTN WITH A SWRLY FLO...THERE WILL BE PREFERENTIAL LL ADVTN N
AND W OF THE APPLACNS THRU THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE PLAIN WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHC/S OF SHRA LATER THIS MORNING THERE FIRST. THE
PRECIP WONT ARRIVE FARTHER S AND E IN C NY AND NE PA UNTIL THE
COOLING ALOFT ARRIVES WITH THE LIFTG FROM THE UPR LVL WAVE ABV THE
INCREASING LL MOISTURE. I SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP FOR SC
NY/CATSKILLS AND NE PA THIS AFTERN INTO EVE. SO WILL HV LIKELY
POPS FIRST IN NW CWA AND LATER TODAY/EVE IN THE SERN CWA.
FOR TONIGHT...A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO MOVG THRU
NY/PA ON BOTH GFS AND NAM WHICH LOOKS RSBL GIVEN THE DEEPING OF
THE UPR LVL TROF AND INCRSG SUBSDC. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP SAT NGT AND ERLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPR LVL PV LOBE AND ASSCTD COLD
CORE ALOFT THAT FOLLOWS THIS FIRST UPR LVL FEATURE FOR TODAY. THE
GFS IS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THIS PV LOBE AND TEMPS ALOFT
SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND SW- AND SW-- ON SUNDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING IN AFTRN. THE NAM IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT FARTHER N AND E.
THE GFS HAS -10C AT 850 MB ACRS MUCH OF CWA SUNDAY 18Z WITH SOME
LES POSSIBLY...(MINOR). THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE. HAVE
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME AM FLURRIES TO NC NY FOR NOW AND NOT BITE OFF
ON THIS JUST YET. SUNDAY SHUD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS W/ AM
FLURRIES NC NY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN CU/SC. REST OF CWA...SCT CU
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SKC BY AFTRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE
A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH
CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY NIGHT,
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z-06Z/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE LLWS OVR
RME AND SYR. THESE LOCATIONS CONT TO BE N OF A WRM FRNTL BNDRY
WHICH ACTUALLY IS STATIONARY. COLD DENSE AIR NR THE SFC APPEARS
TO BE STUCK N OF THE APPLCNS AND IN THE MOHAWK. ALOFT WARMER AIR
CONTS TO STREAM IN AND CREATE A FAIRLY SHARP INVERSION. VWP AND
ESP THE TAMADAR DATA CONTS TO SHOW A SWRLY FLO JUST BELOW 2000
FEET AGL UP TO 35 KTS WITH A LAYER BELOW THAT WHERE THE WINDS
PICK UP MARKEDLY. WILL KEEP LLWS IN BOTH OF THE TAFS THRU 12Z.
DON/T FEEL REST OF TAFS ARE HAVING AS MUCH SHEAR AS THE LL FLO IN
THESE PLACES HAS BEEN MORE SRLY AND THEY ARE S OF THIS
BNDRY/TERRAIN FEATURE. POTENTIAL IS THERE SO WILL MONITOR TAMDARS
AND 88D VWPS CLOSELY FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL.
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...SCT-BKN CI CLDS WERE ADVECTING INTO
UPSTATE NY SW TO WRN PA AND WRN NY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LVL WAVE
AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLLY. THIS CI WILL
CONT TO ADVECT IN OVRNGT BUT IT REMAINS THIN AS PER SATL AND
METARS. THE CI WILL THICKEN UP AND BEGIN TO LOWER TWD 12Z AS THE
UPR LVL LIFTG...LWR LVL WAA AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN TIME OVRNGT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 12Z.
AFTER 12Z AS THE UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD INCREASING LL FLO MOVS
INTO THE REGION...CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP WORKS INTO NY AND NRN
PA. NEPANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FM LWR MI SW INTO IL THERE WAS
WIDESPREAD IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN SOME PLACES
IN IL THERE WAS EVEN VLIFR. NOT SURE WE WILL DROP THAT LO SINCE
THE LL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIONS ON SW FLO IS IMPEDED BY THE
APPLACHIANS A BIT...SO I CUD SEE THIS LOWER MOISTURE RIDING ABV
THE MTNS LEADG TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN FOG LATER TODAY.
INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP RAISE CIGS A BIT TOO.
THIS PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH OUR TAFS SITES
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z AND LAST THRU 00Z...EXCEPT AVP WHERE IT WILL
LINGER LONGER. AFTER 00Z...SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLDS AND MOISTURE
WILL HANG ARND WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TWD 06Z SUN. SEE IFR/MVFR
AFTER 00Z BUT POTENTIALLY IMPROVING THRU 06Z.
WILL BE FRESHENING UP TAFS SOON AT 10Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND
10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH
ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL
RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO
3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND
THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT
SLOWLY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJN
HYDROLOGY...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007
.AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...
SCT-BKN CI CLDS WERE ADVECTING INTO UPSTATE NY SW TO WRN PA AND
WRN NY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD SFC FRNT IN THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VLLY. THIS CI WILL CONT TO ADVECT IN OVRNGT BUT
IT REMAINS THIN AS PER SATL AND METARS. THE CI WILL THICKEN UP AND
BEGIN TO LOWER TWD 12Z AS THE UPR LVL LIFTG...LWR LVL WAA AND
MOISTURE INCREASES IN TIME OVRNGT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
12Z. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
OVR RME AND SYR. ITH APPEARS TO BE MIXING OUT ENUF IN THE LL/S AS
THE WINDS ARE SRLY UP TO 14 KTS UP CAYUGA LAKE. FOR RME AND SYR
THE LL FLO WAS MAINLY ERLY AND FAIRLY LIGHT AS COLD DENSE AIR IS
STUCK NR THE SFC N OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN C NY...A TYPICAL
SCENARIO. ALOFT WARMER AIR CONTS TO STREAM IN AND CREATE A FAIRLY
SHARP INVERSION. VWP AND ESP THE TAMADAR DATA IS SHOWG A SWRLY FLO
JUST BELOW 2000 FEET AGL UP TO 35 KTS WITH A LAYER BELOW THAT THE
WINDS PICK UP MARKEDLY. PUT LLWS IN BOTH OF THE TAFS THRU 12Z. MAY
HAVE TO EXTEND THIS LATER ON THIS SHIFT...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DON/T FEEL REST OF TAFS ARE HAVING AS MUCH SHEAR AS THE
LL FLO IN THESE PLACES HAS BEEN MORE SRLY. BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE
SO WILL MONITOR TAMDARS AND 88D VWPS CLOSELY.
AFTER 12Z AS THE UPR LVL WAVE AND ASSCTD INCREASING LL FLO MOVS
INTO THE REGION...CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP WORKS INTO NY AND NRN
PA. NEPANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FM LWR MI SW INTO IL THERE WAS
WIDESPREAD IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN. IN SOME PLACES
IN IL THERE WAS EVEN VLIFR. NOT SURE WE WILL DROP THAT LO SINCE
THE LL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIONS ON SW FLO IS IMPEDED BY THE
APPLACHIANS A BIT...SO I CUD SEE THIS LOWER MOISTURE RIDING ABV
THE MTNS LEADG TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN FOG LATER TODAY.
INSOLATION THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO HELP RAISE CIGS A BIT TOO.
THIS PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REACH OUR TAFS SITES
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z AND LAST THRU 00Z...EXCEPT AVP WHERE IT WILL
LINGER LONGER. AFTER 00Z...SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLDS AND MOISTURE
WILL HANG ARND WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TWD 06Z SUN. SEE IFR/MVFR
AFTER 00Z BUT POTENTIALLY IMPROVING THRU 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 407 PM EST FRI MAR 9 2007/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ERN NY MOVG EAST. PRESSURE
GRAIENT TIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE
SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS GO ABOVE 0C TONIGHT SO ANY PRECIP SAT MORNING
COULD FREEZE ON THE COLD GROUND. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW IF
ANYTHING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP MIXING THE AIR AND BRINGING WARMTH
FROM S. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TIMING HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE
PRECIP CENTERED FROM 18Z TO 03Z MOVG FROM NW TO SE IN A NARROW
BAND AHEAD AND WITH FRONT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN HALF AN INCH
DO NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MANY HYDRO CONCERNS. QUICK SPEED
OF FRONT AND WEAK DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK TO BE BIG RAIN PRODUCERS.
AS THE RAIN ENDS IT COULD MIX WITH SOME SNOW.
SAT NGT GFS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW. SOME COLD AIR BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY LAKE INSTABILITY. PUT IN A LOW CHC POP
TO COVER A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER FAR N.
SUNDAY WAA ALREADY OCCURING BEHIND THE WEAK UL TROF. SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR. THE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY. MONDAY WILL HAVE A SW FLOW OF AIR PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. UL HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WILL SEE TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER FROPA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND RESULT IN TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL. RRM
HYDROLOGY...
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT WAVERLY SAYRE STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 AND
10 FEET WITH AN ICE JAM. SEE NO REASON WHY THAT WONT CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. AFTER TALKING WITH COUNTIES AND PARK SERVICE STILL MUCH
ICE LEFT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THE RIVER WILL
RISE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL UNDER A HALF INCH WITH COLD FRONT. RIVERS COULD RISE 1 TO
3 FEET WHICH WILL MOVE SOME OF THE ICE. WATER COULD BACK UP BEHIND
THE JAMS BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED ATTM. NEXT WEEK SUN AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO WEAKEN ICE AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MELT
SLOWLY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
PA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT SUN MAR 11 2007
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS...LOWERING THE FREEZING LEVEL...AND USHERING IN
DRYER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...FRONT MORE OR LESS ON SCHEDULE TO SWING SE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS AND SNOW
LEVEL DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S...A
FAR CRY FROM THE 60S TODAY. SOME HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
STILL GET THROUGH. MT BAKER SKI AREA HAS PICKED UP IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS OR SO AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH. UPSHOT IS THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME
MINOR FLOODING PROBABLY COMING OUT SOON.
WEATHER LOOKING LARGELY DRY MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BUT
PRETTY GOOD SURFACE RIDGING ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
COUPLED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PUT SEATTLE IN A RAIN SHADOW SO
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST.
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS
DOES LITTLE MORE THAN BRUSH THE AREA BUT MOS POPS AND GFS PCPN
GRAPHICS BOTH SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...WHICH DRAG INTO
WEDNESDAY. BURKE
.LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS WITH
VARYING STRENGTH INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OFFSHORE THEN SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME...LOTS OF WEATHER APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED NORTH TO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BUT IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY...BUT GFS HAS BEEN
SOLID WITH THIS IDEA AND HAVE MORE OR LESS ACCEPTED IT. BURKE
&&
.AVIATION...STRONG FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SITS FROM JUST
NW OF ESTEVAN B.C. SWWD TO BUOY 46005. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NW
TIP OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AT 02Z AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE SE BY 06Z. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W BEHIND
THE FRONT.
A PERSISTENT LEE SIDE LOW SITS NE OF THE OLYMPICS...BRINGING SOME
CLEARING THERE ALONG WITH SE WIND 25G35KT. AROUND THIS HOLE 3-5SM
-RA BKN020 OVC035. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO FALL SOMEWHAT AS
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE WITH THE FRONT. OUTSIDE OF THE REGION
IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE LEE SIDE LOW EXPECT AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. SEATAC IS ON THE EDGE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THIS MESO LOW AND
WILL OCCASIONALLY SEE STRONGER WIND 18018G25KT WHICH WILL ALTERNATE
WITH LOWER WIND BUT LLWS WITH WIND AT 020 19035-45KT PER ACARS
SOUNDINGS. CIGS AND VSBYS AT KSEA WILL ALSO VARY BASED ON THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MESO LOW TO THE NORTH. BASED ON LOW SKILL IN
PINPOINTING...WILL START 00Z TAF NEAR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND AMEND
IF NEEDED.
STRONG WIND...LOCAL WIND SHEAR...AND PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY
14Z AND WILL END 18Z-20Z AS ONSHORE FLOW RELAXES. ALBRECHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...GALE WINDS CONTINUE ON THE COAST AND AT THE WEST ENTRANCE
AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST ENTRANCE...N INLAND WATERS...AND
ADMIRALTY INLET AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS IN
THE PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL AREA WILL REMAIN 20-30 KT. BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING EXPECT WIND ON THE COAST TO VEER TO W AND
DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT INFLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL LIMIT SCA WIND
LATER TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND AREA. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVALANCHE...HEAVY RAIN HAS COMBINED WITH MELT AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS TO SATURATE AND WEAKEN UPPER PART OF THE SNOWPACK AND
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER. CURRENT WARNINGS COVER
ALL OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND OLYMPICS WITH MT HOOD AREA
ENTERING THE WARNING AREA LATE TODAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE SAGS
SOUTHWARD. STILL LIMITED OBS DUE POOR VISIBILITY IN MOST AREAS, BUT
SPOTTY FIELD REPORTS INDICATE INCREASED NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY.
WITH YET ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN EXPECTED NEXT 12-18
HOURS, WATER SHOULD PENETRATE DEEPER INTO THE PACK AND ALLOW FOR
SOME LARGER WET SLIDES TO BRING DOWN ALL THE SNOW ACCUMULATED SINCE
MID-FEBRUARY. WITH SOME SKI AREAS CLOSED DUE TO UGLY WEATHER AND
WIND CONDITIONS, HOPE THE MESSAGE OF BAD AND/OR DANGEROUS BACK
COUNTRY CONDITIONS WILL BE HEEDED. SEE WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS.
MOORE
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.FLOOD WATCH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT LEWIS...SAN
JUAN...ISLAND...AND KITSAP COUNTIES.
.WIND ADVISORY WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY...WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY...AND
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT...
.GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND HOOD CANAL AND CENTRAL STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
900 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007
.UPDATE...LARGE AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING. DESPITE RETURNS OF 30DBZ OR GREATER MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS
NOT HITTING THE GROUND. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM RHINELANDER AND MONINEE
DURING THE LAST HOUR SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WITH TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCY POPS TONIGHT DESPITE AN AREA OF FAIRLY HIGH
REFLECTIVITIES ENTERING THE CWA.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 4 PM FOLLOWS BELOW:
.SYNOPSIS...ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN U.S. AND SRN
CANADA AS BROAD UPR TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE RGN DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE FCST PERIOD. THE TREND LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR THE TROF
TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE ERN U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE W...LEADING TO NWLY UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN THE WK
AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR PCPN WL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...
BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS NWLY. TEMPS WL CONT MUCH ABV NORMAL EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. GIVEN THE AMNT OF AMPLIFICATION NOW EXPECTED TEMPS WL
PROBABLY JUST RETURN TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FCST PERIOD. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR IN CANADA...SO IF
ADDITONAL AMPLIFICATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE TEMPS SIG BLO
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TNGT/MON. FAST MOVG SYSTEM WL RACE THROUGH THE AREA TNGT.
DIV AHEAD OF DIGGING SHRTWV AND IN THE LFQ OF UPR JET FAVOR AN AREA OF
SIG LIFT SWEEPING EWD ACRS THE AREA DURING THE NGT. MOISTURE WL BE
LIMITED. UPPED POPS AS THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHC THERE WL BE SOME
PCPN...BUT AMNTS WL BE LGT AND NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WL MEASURE.
SWLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABV FZG OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN LIQUID PCPN.
SOME LGT PCPN COULD STILL BE EXITING THE FAR E EARLY TOMORROW. NOT SURE
ABOUT SKYCON TOMORROW AS MID-LVLS SHOULD DRY OUT BUT HIGH CLDS MAY CONT
TO STREAM ACRS IN THE FAST WLY FLOW. 850 MB FLOW BECOMING WNWLY WL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR GETTING MILD AFTN TEMPS. UPPED MAXES A LITTLE FM PREV
FCST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN WITH SHIFT TO NW FLOW BY END OF WEEK. MID RANGE MODELS FAIRLY
SIMILAR. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE MID WEEK AS TRY TO DETERMINE HOW
FAR SOUTH INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WIND UP.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING.
SOME LIFT WITH WAA PATTERN...THOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. HAVE
KEPT FORECAST DRY. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING DAY TUE AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES ARE THE CONCERN THAT
DAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
EXPECTED MILD START AND GREATER MIXING AS FRONT MOVES IN. 850 TEMPS RISE
TO NEAR +10 AHEAD OF FRONT. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WITH FRONT...THUS WILL
STAY WITH PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OVER WESTERN LAKES TUE NIGHT AS BECOMES PARALLEL
TO FLOW. FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WHERE FRONT WILL END UP. AT THIS TIME...
EXPECT FRONT TO BE OVER NORTHERN IL. VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
WITH DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH IN THE 50S. WAVE/WAVES EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG FRONT AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH FAST WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW.
BANDED TYPE PCPN EXPECTED IN STRONG OVER-RUNNING REGIME LATE TUE INTO
WED. ADDED DYNAMICS FROM RRQ OF JET MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIG PCPN EVENT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER AREA
SUGGEST MIX INITIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW OVER AREA WED. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HWO...THOUGH HAVE
CONCERNS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS...TAPERED SOUTH TO NORTH.
UPPER TROF AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THU...WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV FZG OVERNIGHT...
WARMING ABV THE SFC WL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. EXPECT LLJ TO
INCR NR THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THE NAM WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN
GENERATING WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS ARND 2K FT. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE. THINK A COMPROMISE IN ORDER...AND THAT STILL SUPPORTED
ADDING LLWS TO THE TAFS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY
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