Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/17/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT THU MAR 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A DECREASING MARINE WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARMER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)... LOW CLOUDS WERE INTO THE WRN INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG INLAND...CLEARING TO JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 1200 FT. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM THE N AND ONSHORE TO THE E WITH ABOUT 3 MB SAN-IPL. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD A LITTLE INTO FRI AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS SAT. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE SUN. THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM THE N WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DECREASE A LITTLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SHALLOW THROUGH SAT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND ON HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD START TO DEEPEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. A LITTLE WARMER FRI THEN GRADUALLY COOLER SAT AND SUN. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER A LITTLE MON FOR MORE COOLING AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT WED FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT WARMING. LOCALLY WINDY TUE AND WED...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FAIR AND WARMER THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. && .AVIATION... 151845Z...LATE MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1300 FEET. STRATUS PULLED BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE STRATUS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT WITH STRATUS/FOG RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS DURING THE LATE EVENING...BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BETWEEN 16 AND 17Z ON FRIDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRIDAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DVA AVIATION...HORTON
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
240 AM PDT THU MAR 15 2007 .SHORT TERM... WELL ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE LAND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST BUT THE SEAS REMAIN CLEAR. 0800Z ACARS SHOWS A 1400 FOOT MARINE LAYER BUT THE CLOUDS ARE HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE VLYS PROBABLY DUE TO GOOD OFFSHORE TRENDS BOTH N/S AND E/W. STILL SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL GET INTO THE VLYS BY SUNRISE. FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE MARINE CLOUDS TO PATCHY AT THE COASTS. IT IS A WEAK OFFSHORE EVENT AND NOT MUCH WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE NICE. MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS WILL JUMP 3 OR 4 DEGREES WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE A BETTER MARINE LAYER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT READILY APPARENT WHY. MAYBE A LITTLE EDDY SPUN UP BY STRONG WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS. KEPT THE MARINE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST BUT AM NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THEY WILL APPEAR. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE TRENDS AND LOW HGTS ABOVE. .LONG TERM... DRY UPPER TROF GOES OVERHEAD SUNDAY ALONG WITH A GOOD RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BEEFIER MARINE LAYER ALONG WITH A GOOD REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY AS A TROF APPROACHES. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEPT THE MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. MORE COOLING AS WELL AS HGTS CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG WITH THE COOL MARINE AIR. TUESDAY`S SYSTEM IS LOOKING WEAKER AND WEAKER. DO NOT SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND PARTLY CLOUDY. PERHAPS A LITTLE BREEZY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY BREEZY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES ALONG. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS EC SOLN WHICH IS SLOWER AND DEEPER AND MIGHT MAKE WEDNESDAY A RAINY DAY. WILL KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF MY MIND FOR TOMORROWS SHIFT AND WILL SEE IF ONE MDL TRENDS TO THE OTHER. && .AVIATION... 15/1000Z S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MARINE LAYER NEAR 1500 DEEP. SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS KLAX...KLGB ARE LOW MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING...WHILE AIRFIELDS KOXR AND KSBA CONTINUE IN IFR CIG CATEGORY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURNOFF A BIT SOONER THIS MORNING AS SFC GRADIENTS NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG IN LA/VTU VALLEYS THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR KBUR AND KVNY BEFORE DAWN...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH BURNOFF BY 17Z. N OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOOKS LIKE ONLY STRATUS ISSUES WILL BE AT KSMX AND KSBP THIS MORNING WITH IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EARLY. EXPECTING EARLY MORNING BURNOFF BY 17Z. AT THIS POINT...KPRB SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION INDICATES NOT AS MOIST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOTHING TO THE NORTH ADVECTING S THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY THIS MORNING. KLAX...EXPECT LOW MVFR CATEGORY TO LOC IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 18Z. WEAKER ONSHORE SFC GRADIENTS SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER BURNOFF THEN YESTERDAY. EXPECT VRB WINDS 6 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW TO W WIND 8 TO 12 KT BY 18-19Z. MVFR VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z TODAY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...KAPLAN WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
948 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007 .UPDATE...ALL CONVECTION HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE SE CST AND THUS WILL LOWER POPS ALL ZONES. OTHERWISE, FCST APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY TWEAK OTHER PARAMETERS TO FIT CURRENT TREND. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS THE DRYING TREND AT UPPER LEVELS ALTHOUGH PWAT IS SIMILAR TO 18Z. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST AS WELL SO ANY UPPER SUPPORT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM GREAT LAKES TO WRN GULF OF MEX. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ARND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS FL PENINSULA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH GOOD UPR LVL DIV. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDING ENERGY FOR SHWRS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST OVER ERN METRO AREAS. LOW LVL WIND PROFILES FROM ACARS AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOW GOOD VERTICAL DIR/SPEED SHEAR OVER EXTREME SRN PENINSULA INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE (SUPERCELL TYPE). WL KEEP THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THIS EVENING AND CLEARING S. FLA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH AS A SFC HIGH MOVES TO ERN SEA BOARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA FREE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH MINS RANGING FROM ARND 40 ACROSS NRN INTERIOR TO L/M 50S OVR THE ERN METRO AREAS. THE SFC HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OVER WRN ATLC MAKING THE LOW LVL FLOW TO SHIFT EAST AND BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WX PATTERN TO S. FL. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED INTERIOR/ATLANTIC COAST. PLACED TEMPO TSRA IN FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z...SINCE THIS TIME PERIOD STANDS THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE S-SW BECOMING NW AT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTH RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL REACT BY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING AT THAT HEIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MENTION EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS SAT AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WL KEEP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING OR NOT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070- FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
933 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END. WE RECEIVED JUST OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS AND TO IMPROVE SKY CONDITIONS...AS CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM CHARLOTTE TO ANDERSON. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BUT PREVENT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... 00Z-04Z...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THE AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS 2-3 THOUSAND FT...BECOMING SCATTERED 3-4 THOUSAND FT WESTERN PORTION NEAR AGS 02Z-03Z. VFR VSBYS 7 MILES OR BETTER. 04Z-08Z...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUDS 3-4 THOUSAND FT. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KT WITH VSBYS GREATER THAN 7 MILES. AFTER 08Z...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. VSBYS UNLIMITED. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO AREA IN LOW LEVELS. AFTER 14Z...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NORTHWEST 12-20 KT AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. PERHAPS A LITTLE BUMPY AT TIMES FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. BY THIS EVENING FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF CWA AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NE PART OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS THEN NO POPS FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SUB FREEZING TEMPS ... 29 TO 31 DEGREES IN PARTS OF CWA BOTH NIGHTS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN HWO. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW START OUT ZONAL ON MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AROUND MID WEEK...TUE/WED TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. LOW POPS REFLECT THIS...ALTHOUGH BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH TEMPS AND CLOUDS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
654 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007 .AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... 00Z-04Z...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THE AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS 2-3 THOUSAND FT...BECOMING SCATTERED 3-4 THOUSAND FT WESTERN PORTION NEAR AGS 02Z-03Z. VFR VSBYS 7 MILES OR BETTER. 04Z-08Z...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUDS 3-4 THOUSAND FT. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KT WITH VSBYS GREATER THAN 7 MILES. AFTER 08Z...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. VSBYS UNLIMITED. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO AREA IN LOW LEVELS. AFTER 14Z...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NORTHWEST 12-20 KT AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. PERHAPS A LITTLE BUMPY AT TIMES FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. BY THIS EVENING FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF CWA AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NE PART OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS THEN NO POPS FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SUB FREEZING TEMPS ... 29 TO 31 DEGREES IN PARTS OF CWA BOTH NIGHTS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN HWO. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW START OUT ZONAL ON MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AROUND MID WEEK...TUE/WED TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. LOW POPS REFLECT THIS...ALTHOUGH BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH TEMPS AND CLOUDS. AVIATION /17Z-12Z/... AREA IS UNDER THE SQUEEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS US FROM EASTERN GEORGIA...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CAROLINA. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT MOST SITES THROUGH THAT TIME. DO EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WIND SPEEDS REMAIN UP. AFTER 00Z...WINDS SHOULD BE BLOWING MORE OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. DRYING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 00Z ALSO...AND EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT...REDUCING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
700 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2007 .DISCUSSION REGARDING AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS... 200 PM CDT MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE HAD GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FCST IN NR TERM...AND A FEW OTHER NUANCES...HAVE MADE VERY LTL CHG TO INHERITED FCST. GUIDANCE SHOWS VORT MAX MOVG S OF AREA ERLY THIS EVENING AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATLT LOOPS DO IN FACT SHOW A SUBTLE INFLECTION IN UPSTREAM CLOUD FIELD OVR SWRN MN/NRN IA. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO ZIP RPDLY THRU FA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR DCRS IN CLOUDINESS TNGT OVR NRN IL. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT WILL BE ALG LKFRONT AND INTO NWRN IND LATER TNGT AS WINDS TURN MORE NLY. FSCT H85 TEMPS OVR LK MI ARND -11C WITH LATEST SFC TEMPS OF 3-4C. THIS SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FLRYS LATER TNGT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FCST DRY...BUT AREA VOID OF CLOUDS NOW SHOULD SEE INCRS IN STRATOCU OFF LAKE OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP SKY CONDITION AT LEAST PTLY CLOUDY THRU SAT WITH H5 INFLECTION AXIS STILL N OF AREA AND FCST LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SOME HI BASED FLAT CU DURG DAY. SKIES TO CLR SAT NGT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES THRU. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP SUPPORTS MOS FCST MINS NR 20 DEG MOST AREAS. NXT WX PROBLEM APCHS SUN WITH STG WAA SITUATION DVLPG AS HI MOVES OFF TO E. BY 00Z MON...NOSE OF IMPRESSIVE LLVL CONVERGENCE AREA FCST TO BE MOVG INTO NRN IL. DESPITE FCST OF STG OMEGA FIELD...WILL CONCUR WITH GUIDANCE AND KEEP POPS BLO MENTION UNTIL SUN NGT AS LLVLS INITIALLY QUITE DRY. FOR THIS REASON WILL BEGIN PRECIP SUN NGT AS SNOW...WITH CHG OVR TO LIQUID BY ABOUT 06Z AS AMS WARMS IN FACE OF 40 KT SWLY LLVL WINDS. WILL NOT MENTION ANY SIG ACCUMULATION AS SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEING AT ONSET OF PCPN. PCPN CHCS DROP OFF BY MON MRNG AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS E. DEEP LO PRES RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS BRIEF INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WILL MOVE ACRS SRN ONTARIO BY ERLY MON...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING ONE MORE PUSH OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER AIR IN FOR MON NGT AND TUES. RMNDR OF FCST UNCHANGED WITH MODELS STILL EVOLVING LARGER AMPLITUDE TROFFING OVR RCKYS...WITH BUILDING UPR RIDGE ALG E COAST OF U.S. THIS WILL BRING TREND TWD MILD TEMPS AND FQT PERIODS OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MIDWEST/SRN GRTLKS BY WED. MERZLOCK && .AVIATION... 700 PM CDT THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE HEAT FLUX FROM THE SURFACE WILL DECREASE AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BELOW 1693 METERS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE. THE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHT WILL DECREASE BY 03 UTC. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS A RESULT OF SOME WIND SHEAR BUT THESE MAY BE SCATTERED. WILL FORECAST A DECREASE IN CLOUDS TO SCATTERED AT THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AN INVERSION BY NEAR SUNRISE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. THE NORTH WIND IS A RESULT OF THE LOW ON THE EAST COAST. THIS HEAT FLUX AND CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND THE EFFECT OF A STRONG UPPER JET SHOWED UP VERY WELL IN OUR LOCALLY RUN WRF ARW MODEL. USED THE ACARS SOUNDING FROM ORD TO ADJUST THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATE. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...SCA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS TODAY AND SNOW POTENTIAL WITH CLIPPER SHRTWV LATE TODAY INTO FRI. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD FLAT TROF OVER THE NRN CONUS. ONE SHRTWV...THAT BROUGHT THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WAS DEPARTING E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SE SASK/ NW ND. OCNL LIGHTNING NOTED WITH THIS FEATURES OVER SRN SASK WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM). RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LES INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI HAD DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BEST LOW LVL CONV WITH THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. HOWEVER...IR LOOP SHOWED INCREASE IN MULTIPLE WIND PARALLEL BANDS OVER CNTRL LK SUPERIOR. 900-850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR -SHSN BUT VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM(SFC-850 DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 15 TO 20 F NOTED ON CYQT TAMDAR SNDG) WAS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN LIGHT LES. TODAY...EXPECT THE LIGHT LES...MAINLY OVER N CNTRL UPPER MI...TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH CONTINUE DRY ADVECTION AND LOW LVL DIVERGENT ACYC FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH 700-500 QVECTOR CONV WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWV MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING SOME LIGHT LES INTO THE KEWEENAW. TONIGHT INTO FRI...THE NAM AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MDLS FOCUS THE BEST QVECTOR CONV JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF UPPER MI AS THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE TO STRONG DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH THE FCST OF CONTINUED STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES INTO THE AREA WARRANT MENTION OF CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING SPREADING INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH WEAK NRLY FLOW...THE MID LVL TROF AXIS STILL OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA...850 MB MDL CONSENSUS TEMPS AROUND -13C...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHRTWVS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NW...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH UPPER MI. SUN AND MON...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...PER HPC...WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THE 00Z ECMWF AND GLBL CANADIAN SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW COULD MOVE IN LATE SUN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS FROM THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF STILL LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME RAIN EARLY MON OVER THE SOUTH BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES LATE IN THE DAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
128 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA...THANKS TO A FRONTAL ZONE NOW SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. JZ && .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 952 PM. FGEN-RELATED PRECIP...NOW MOSTLY SNOW...WILL BE EXITING THE SE ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF MI...AND TIGHTEST 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT IS ALSO MOVING DOWNSTATE. PRECIP IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 700-500MB 2D FGEN MAXIMUM (AS IT SHOULD)...WHICH EXTENDS FROM GRB TO GAYLORD TO ROGERS CITY. THIS FGEN MAX ACCELERATES EASTWARD TONIGHT...AWAY FROM THE REGION. THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THIS WILL END PRECIP IN NORTHERN MI...AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. THUS...WILL UPDATE AS PRECIP IS ENDING IN THE SE ZONES TO GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT TRENDS SUPPORT EASTERN UPPER MI PERHAPS SEEING SOME BREAKS SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FURTHER SOUTH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM...OUTSIDE OF SOME BREAKS VERY LATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL BOOST MIN TEMPS A BIT IN MANY LOCALES. && .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 740 PM. FGEN ALOFT INTENSIFIED ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR...WITH PRECIP BREAKING OUT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC TO APN. ALONG MAIN BAND OF PRECIP... RAIN/SNOW/ SLEET/GRAUPEL HAVE ALL BEEN REPORTED. MIXED PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING TO THE SE...IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL PROGS...AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AT OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE INTENSE PRECIP WITHIN THE MAIN BAND (NOW FROM CAD TO OSSINEKE) COULD PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. EARLIER UPDATE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME OF THESE TRENDS...WILL FRESHEN GRIDS A BIT BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ZFP UPDATE TIL LATER IN THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...RAPID RISE ON RIFLE RIVER AT STERLING...AND INCREASING HIGH WATER REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT...PROMPTED A FLOOD WARNING FOR ARENAC EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT FLOOD-PRONE AREA DURING SPRING THAWS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTRAORDINARY PROBLEMS...BUT FLOODING IS FLOODING. ZOLTOWSKI && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 355 PM. LATEST SURFACE MAP PLACES THE FIRST COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG EITHER FRONT AT THE MOMENT. ALL THAT HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS THE REGION IS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO 650MB. THUS...PRECIPITATION CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE ISSUES. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE DRY AIR BELOW 650MB WILL HOLD TOUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO OUTSIDE OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL. DEWPOINTS WILL REALLY FALL OFF TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...GENERALLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. THIS DRIER AIR...AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL YIELD A MUCH COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS REACHING THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS WILL FREEZE UP ANY SLUSHY AREAS OF SNOW TONIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S IN EASTERN UPPER...WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN NORTHERN LOWER. MOVING ON TO POTENTIAL FLOODING...AFTER MAKING SOME PHONE CALLS DOWN AROUND ARENAC AND GLADWIN COUNTY...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH AND KEEP IT RUNNING UNTIL 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE RIFLE RIVER AT STERLING CONTINUES TO RISE AND IS NOW WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT SITUATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KAS REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING RIDGING OUT WEST WILL LEAD TO A MEAN TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COLDER WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE OFF INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. SHORT TERM MODELS SHEAR THIS FEATURE OUT AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS MEAN 900-700 MB RH AROUND 60 PERCENT). THEREFORE...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE AND THE DRY AIR WILL LOWER POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME LOOKS MINIMAL AS WELL WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION THE HIGH MID MARCH SUN DURING THE DAY). GUIDANCE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY COLD (UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) WHICH LOOK GOOD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE TEENS. SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH 40 TO 50 PERCENT). AS THE FLOW BACKS INTO THE NORTH AND INCREASES THERE WILL LIKELY BE LAKE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IS ALRIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -14C. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS WE GET INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (BUT THIS TIMING MAY TURN OUT TO BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE). HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE BACKING OFF OF THE SCENARIO OF COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD. SULLIVAN && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH...UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY...MIZ041-042. FLOOD WARNING...UNTIL 1230 PM THURSDAY...MIZ042. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
915 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2007 .UPDATED AT 925 AM...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES AS IT IS QUITE A BIT COLDER BELOW 900MB THAN EXPECTED. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AT RHINELANDER...APPLETON AND WAUSAU ALL INDICATE HIGHS BETWEEN 25 AND 30F. .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE WINDS... TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE AREAS. AS A RESULT...NEEDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT VORT MOVG THROUGH WSTRN ND. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WAS PRODUCING SOME SNOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FOX VALLEY/LKSHR AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT STRONGER GRADIENT AND 925 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH BY AFTERNOON... SO A DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD OCCUR. MIXING THROUGH 900-875 MB SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. TONIGHT...THE S/W TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WI ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM IS SHOWING A MORE POTENT SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER NC WI. GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER... HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOWED MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TREND TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW WAS NOTED AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES FLATTER WHILE IT GETS PUSHED EASTWARD BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF WISCONSIN...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING PCPN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH WISCONSIN. WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY PCPN. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE RGN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS TO RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ KIECKBUSCH/MG WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY $$ RDM/ECKBERG WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT FRI MAR 16 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND WITH AN INCREASING MARINE LAYER THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WITH FEWER CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... INVERSION WAS QUITE STRONG TODAY...RESULTING IN A VERY WARM TO HOT DAY INLAND BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RECORD HIGHS WERE SET OR TIED FOR 11 LOCATIONS. THIS EVENING...AN ACARS SOUNDING SHOWED AN 11 DEG C INVERSION WITH THE BASE AROUND 700 FEET. WITH THIS SHALLOW INVERSION...EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THE MESAS AND COASTAL VALLEYS SOMETIME BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AS TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION DECREASE ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY...KEEPING THE INVERSION STRONG. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND THE LOWER DESERTS COULD HAVE TEMPS NEAR 100 AGAIN. I AM GOING ABOVE MOS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE DESERTS AS TEMPS EXCEEDED MOS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TODAY...NOT ATYPICAL DURING ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE EVENTS. MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING COOLING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM...NOW IN THE ALEUTIANS...WILL SEND A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE. THE MID-PACIFIC CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE...SO SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED OCCUR HERE...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING AT ALL. WE WILL BE FORTUNATE IF WE CAN GET 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT WITH TIMING...BUT TUESDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK BEST FOR PRECIP IN OUR AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS IT STRENGTHENS AROUND MIDWEEK...AND THE SLOW EASTERLY SHIFT WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING UNTIL THU/FRI. && .AVIATION... 170314Z...1K TO 1.3K FT MARINE STRATUS LAYER SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THIS EVENING. BASES ARE BETWEEN 600 AND 900 FT WITH VISIBILITY MOSTLY 3-5SM IN HAZE. EXPECT CIGS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 300 AND 600 FT MSL WITH LITTLE DEEPENING OF THE LAYER...AND VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR OR VLIFR IN MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. INLAND PENETRATION EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...AROUND 15 MILES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FARTHER INLAND AND OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS...BUT SOME IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL EXTEND TO NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MAY AFFECT SOME INLAND VALLEY AIRPORTS THROUGH 16Z SAT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD PULL BACK TO THE COAST BY 18Z ON SATURDAY. ABOVE THE STRATUS/HAZE/FOG LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CLEAR SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FL100. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA
146 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. PATCHES OF CLOUDS 3500 TO 4500 FEET OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST BY 07Z LEAVING CLEAR SKIES...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AFTER 14Z. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 12-22KT. SOME LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE. AFTER 22Z...WINDS DIMINISHING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END. WE RECEIVED JUST OVER AN INCH OF RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS AND TO IMPROVE SKY CONDITIONS...AS CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY FROM CHARLOTTE TO ANDERSON. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BUT PREVENT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL NOW THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ AVIATION /00Z-24Z/... 00Z-04Z...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THE AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS 2-3 THOUSAND FT...BECOMING SCATTERED 3-4 THOUSAND FT WESTERN PORTION NEAR AGS 02Z-03Z. VFR VSBYS 7 MILES OR BETTER. 04Z-08Z...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CLOUDS 3-4 THOUSAND FT. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KT WITH VSBYS GREATER THAN 7 MILES. AFTER 08Z...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. VSBYS UNLIMITED. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO AREA IN LOW LEVELS. AFTER 14Z...SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NORTHWEST 12-20 KT AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. PERHAPS A LITTLE BUMPY AT TIMES FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. BY THIS EVENING FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF CWA AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NE PART OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS THEN NO POPS FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SUB FREEZING TEMPS ... 29 TO 31 DEGREES IN PARTS OF CWA BOTH NIGHTS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN HWO. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW START OUT ZONAL ON MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AROUND MID WEEK...TUE/WED TIME FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. LOW POPS REFLECT THIS...ALTHOUGH BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH TEMPS AND CLOUDS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS UPR TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GRT LKS DOWNWIND OF RDG BLDG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHEARED OUT SHRTWV/UPR JET EXTENDS FM LK WINNIPEG INTO NE MN...BUT LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS DEPICT A DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH PWAT AS LO AS 0.07 INCH AT APX TO 0.15 AT INL. UPSTREAM 00Z INL RAOB/TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH SHOW A SURE SIGN OF APRCHG SPRING WITH WELL MIXED... INVERTED V TYPE T/TD PROFILES UP TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE H85-8. WITH ACYC LLVL FLOW...LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND INFLUX OF THIS DRIER AIR...DIURNAL -SHSN THAT DVLPD IN PRESENCE OF A BIT MORE MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB HAVE COMPLETELY DSPTD. IN FACT...THERE IS HARDLY ANY LK SC AT ALL AS OF 03Z. THE FEW SC STILL ARND ARE NEAR P53. UNDER MOCLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS UNDER SFC RDG AXIS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF SHARPLY TO WELL BLO SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...BUT THIS SYS IS SO FAR N THAT ACCOMPANYING MID LVL MSTR IS ON TRACK TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH N OF THE FA. MORE WDSPRD MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC IS MOVING INTO WRN MN EARLY THIS MRNG IN PACIFIC MSTR PLUME WELL IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV IN GLFAK TRACKING TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES CHCS/TEMPS INTO SUN MRNG THEN TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW IN THE GLFAK. FOR TDAY...HI PRES RDG FCST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONCERN SOME LK CLD/-SHSN COULD DVLP LATE TNGT IN AREA OF CONFLUENT SFC WINDS OVER LK SUP BTWN LAND BREEZES OFF ONTARIO/THE WCNTRL CWA AS SHOWN BY 00Z RUC13 MODEL...DRY NATURE OF AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z DLH/INL SDNGS AS WELL AS GENERAL ACYC H95 FLOW MAY BE ENUF TO PREVENT DVLPMNT. IN FACT...RUC13 SHOWS ZERO QPF EVEN IN THE AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC. BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING LO CHC POPS OVER THE ERN ZNS NR LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CNVGC/LK MOISTENING IN LLVL NW FLOW THERE. CONSIDERING THE DRY LLVL AIRMASS UPSTREAM...NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS LOOK TO MOISTEN THE LLVLS TOO MUCH TDAY OVER THE W HALF AWAY FM LK MOISTENING UNDER THE RDG AXIS. SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PTCHY AC ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF MSTR BAND ACCOMPANYING ONTARIO SHRTWV...DAY SHOULD FEATURE AT LEAST A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH SCT-BKN SC DVLPG OVER THE INTERIOR AT TOP OF DVLPG MIXED LYR. MIXING TO INVRN BASE SUPPORTS HI TEMPS REACHING ARND 32. HI PRES RDG PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WCNTRL TNGT UNDER RISING H5 HGTS. HOWEVER...NNW WIND BTN RDG AND DEEPENING LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES FCST TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT COLDER LLVL AIR OVER ERN LK SUP (H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -15C)...SO WL CARRY CHC -SHSN E OF MQT WHERE RUC13 SHOWS SOME LLVL CNVGC. OTRW...HI CLDS SPILLING OVER UPR RDG AXIS IN THE NRN PLAINS LOOK TO SPILL INTO THE WRN ZNS LATER WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING DVLPG ABV THE 280K SFC. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LO TEMPS WITH LGT WINDS ALLOWING THE MERCURY TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE ANY MID/HI CLD ROLL IN LATER. ANY LES OVER THE E SHOULD END SUN MRNG AS HI PRES RDG/AXIS OF DRIER LLVL AIR BLDS OVHD AND DIURNAL HTG DISRUPTS ANY BANDS. OTRW...SHRTWV NOW APRCHG BRITISH COLUMBIA PROGGED TO REACH JUST N OF LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z MON...WITH SFC LO PUSHING INTO NW ONTARIO THEN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE AN INCRS IN MID/HI CLD WITH INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING ON THE 290K SFC...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FOCUS THE BETTER PCPN CHCS TO THE S OVER WI CLOSER TO SHARPER H85 FNTL ZN AND UNDER BETTER UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX IN THE CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL QPF PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE FAR W THRU 00Z MON SEEMS RSNBLY PLACED WITH THESE DYNAMICS IN MIND...SO HAVE OPTED TO CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT SUN AFTN. CLIPPER SHRTWV/SFC LO FCST TO TRACK ACRS ONTARIO SUN NGT/MON TO NEAR WRN QUEBEC BY 00Z TUE...DRAGGING A SHARP COLD FNT ACRS THE FA W-E LATE SUN NGT AND MON. TRACK OF THIS STRG SHRTWV JUST THE NE WITH FA IN JET SURGE REGION LOOKS FVRBL FOR HI WINDS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING VIGOROUS CAD FCST BY MODELS (H85 TEMP FALLS 10C IN 6 HRS FM 12Z-18Z MON AT CMX). GFS FCST H925 WINDS UP TO 45 KTS IN THE MIXED LYR FOLLOWING COLD FROPA HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HI END GALE OVER MAINLY THE E HALF OF LK SUP AS WELL AS NEED FOR WIND ADVY HEADLINES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE LK SUP SHORE. SINCE BEST DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC WITH THE SHRTWV STAYS TO THE N OF THE FA WHILE SHARPER H85 THERMAL GRADIENT/H85-7 FGEN REMAINS TO THE S OVER WI...PCPN CHCS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FNT DO NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. WL GO NO MORE THAN CHC POPS SUN NGT...HIEST ACRS THE S CLOSER TO THE BETTER H85 THERMAL PACKING. DESPITE STRG COOLING BEHIND THE FNT... UKMET/GFS HINT INCOMING AIRMASS AHEAD OF LAST ARCTIC HI BLDG SE INTO CNTRL CAN WL BE TOO DRY FOR SGNFT LES. AFT LTL DROP IN TEMP ON SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF FNT...EXPECT RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMP ON MON WITH THE STRG CAD EVEN THOUGH THE SUN WL LIKELY COME OUT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SCNTRL...WHERE LLVL COLD AIR WL PUSH IN LAST AND NW FLOW WL BE DOWNSLOPING. DROPPED TEMPS CLOSER TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE MON NGT IN AREAS AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION... WHERE SOME LGT LES MIGHT DVLP. COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SAT MAR 17 2007 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING LOW PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE MARINE LAYER...PROVIDING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS THAT EXTEND TO THE VALLEYS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. BY TUESDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AND STRONG WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... WE EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN A LITTLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. DENSE FOG WILL APPEAR FARTHER INLAND. THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH TUE WITH COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAYS EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND. THE LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROUGH TO SWING INTO SOCAL MON NIGHT AND TUE. INITIALLY THIS WILL PROBABLY EXPAND THE MARINE LAYER AND CAUSE A DRIZZLE EVENT FROM THE MTN FOOTHILLS WESTWARD...BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE REAL SHOWERS TUE. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL WILL NOT BE HEAVY NOR LAST LONG. UP TO 0.25 INCH IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS THAT COULD REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION SO A FEW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH WED MORNING. COOL BUT DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON THU AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND CUTS OFF OVER AZ. NOT MUCH OFFSHORE FLOW COMPONENT INDICATED EXCEPT FOR A WEAK AND BRIEF EPISODE FRI. A NICE RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS FRI AND BEYOND FOR A DECENT WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION... 172045Z...THE MARINE LAYER IS AT ABOUT 1300 FEET ACCORDING TO ACARS SOUNDINGS. THE MARINE INVERSION IS STRONG AND SLOWING THE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS/FOG AT THE COAST. COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE MVFR AT BEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD PUSH BACK INLAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITIES AT COASTAL AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MESA AND INLAND VALLEY AIRPORTS BY MIDNIGHT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD PULL BACK TO THE COAST BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z ON SUNDAY. ABOVE THE STRATUS/FOG...CONTINUED VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT SAT MAR 17 2007 .SHORT TERM... IN MORNING UPDATE...ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR ALL AREAS AS VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE. LATEST ACARS DATA AND PILOT REPORTS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1500 FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LA BASIN...WITH GREATER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE VALLEYS. WITH THE INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH AND INCREASING ONSHORE GRIDS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN ZONES AND GRIDS FOR FIRST PERIOD ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. *** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *** WRF FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN E/W GRADS TO NEAR 6MB ONSHORE AND THIS AFTERNOON PUSH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS AT THE COASTS DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INVERSION ALOFT. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS WILL COOL SOME IN THE COASTAL INLAND AREAS AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS. LOWER HGTS WILL AID TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS. ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK TROF WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NIGHT OVER ALL THE COASTS AND VLYS TONIGHT. MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH AND WITH A WEAK ENOUGH INVERSION TO ALLOW TOTAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. TEMPS WILL BE DOWN EVERYWHERE WITH DEEP MARINE LAYER PENETRATION AND LOWER HGTS. MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR EXCEPT IT WILL BE COOLER AS HGTS LOWER IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROF. .LONG TERM... EC AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. TUESDAY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK GOOD ESP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. GFS LOOKS BETTER THAN WRF WHICH CAME IN VERY DRY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...CLOUDY AND COOLER SEEMS THE WAY TO GO. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WRF GETS WETTER OR THE GFS GETS DRYER. RAINFALL IF ANY WITH THIS STORM WILL NOT BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OUT. A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH THE MID MARCH SUNSHINE GIVING THINGS A BOOST. THINGS TURN A LITTLE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A NICE JUMP IN TEMPS AND SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY ALONG WITH A 576DM RIDGE. MAYBE COOLER AT THE COASTS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT NICE AND WARM INLAND. && .AVIATION... 17/1000Z MARINE LAYER IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 1400 FT DEEP. NOT EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ALL COASTAL AIRFIELDS WILL BE IN LIFR/IFR CIGS CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z. STRATUS SHOULD BURNOFF QUICKER TO THE BEACHES TODAY AS COOLING ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MIX OUT STRONG INVERSION LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR VSBYS WITH LOC IFR VSBYS AS WELL THROUGH MOST THE DAY. KPRB COULD SEE SOME LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT. KLAX...EXPECT EARLIER BURNOFF OF IFR CIGS BY 20Z TODAY...WITH MVFR/VFR VSBYS. VRB MORNING WINDS BELOW 6 KT WITH SEABREEZE KICKING IN NEAR 17Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. KBUR...EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 16Z...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MVFR HAZE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...GOMBERG/RORKE AVIATION...KAPLAN WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES