Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/18/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT SUN MAR 18 2007 .DISCUSSION... A SLEW OF RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN TODAY STATEWIDE. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE CO WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE E PLAINS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE OVER AZ/NM. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOWS VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE DESERT SW EXCEPT FOR A 40-60 KNOT JET IN THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ. 00Z MREF/03Z SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE OVER AZ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST BENEATH THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT AND STRONG SFC HEATING WILL ACT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY THAN SATURDAY SO TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS IN THE EAST DESPITE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER MIXING IN THE WEST WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH THE RECORD OF 77F AT KABQ IN JEOPARDY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE PLAINS BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NM MONDAY AND HELP FORCE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE E PLAINS AS IT PASSES INTO TX MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL PWATS AROUND 0.5 INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LIFTED INDICES AVERAGING -1 TO -2C AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES PUSHING -10C/KM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WEST MONDAY BUT FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS AS MODELS INDICATE LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO CROSS THE STATE IN SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 75 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 74 31 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 75 32 70 30 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 82 43 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 65 26 59 28 / 0 0 5 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 37 66 34 / 0 0 5 10 RED RIVER....................... 63 27 55 28 / 0 0 10 30 TAOS............................ 71 30 66 32 / 0 0 10 10 SANTA FE........................ 72 36 69 36 / 0 0 5 10 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 38 70 37 / 0 0 5 10 ESPANOLA........................ 78 36 73 38 / 0 0 5 10 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 45 75 45 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 41 77 43 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 43 74 43 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 5 SOCORRO......................... 84 44 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 40 68 38 / 0 0 0 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 35 70 36 / 0 0 0 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 80 45 77 44 / 5 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 71 41 69 39 / 10 0 0 0 RATON........................... 78 34 64 35 / 0 0 10 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 77 39 65 37 / 0 0 10 20 ROY............................. 78 42 67 39 / 0 0 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 80 44 65 42 / 0 0 10 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 83 44 77 42 / 0 0 5 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 85 46 74 45 / 0 0 10 30 FORT SUMNER..................... 86 45 78 44 / 10 0 5 20 CLOVIS.......................... 83 48 75 44 / 10 0 5 20 PORTALES........................ 84 46 78 45 / 10 0 5 20 ROSWELL......................... 87 50 85 47 / 10 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SUN MAR 18 2007 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LOW CLOUDS FILLED THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN UP TO ABOUT 2500 FEET THIS MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS AROUND AND DENSE FOG ONLY OCCURRED ON THE INLAND EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUDS OVER LAND WILL PROBABLY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT THE WEAKER MARINE INVERSION TODAY MAY ALLOW BEACHES TO CLEAR AS WELL. MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON WITH FULL COASTAL BASIN COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY COULD DEVELOP TO ASSIST THE LOW CLOUDS ON THEIR INLAND QUEST. TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH EXCEPT IN THE INTERIOR WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP BRING TEMPS DOWN WELL BELOW THE RECENT RECORD LEVELS. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SENDS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SOCAL LATE TUE AND EARLY WED. THIS IS A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN RECENT MODEL RUNS HAD IT. ALSO DIFFERENT IS THAT THE MAIN ENERGY AND JET SEEM TO GO INTO BAJA NOW AND THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SONORA AND AZ. THIS ACTION STOPS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW...PUTTING SOCAL IN NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WED THROUGH FRI. SO PRECIP NOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SAME TIME STARTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON WED AND THU. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NICELY FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW CAMPS OUT IN MEXICO ON THU THROUGH SAT. SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL GET SQUASHED BACK TO ONLY THE COAST. THE JET STREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SAGS SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK PUTTING CA IN STRONGER ZONAL FLOW...BUT THE MOISTURE WAY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP IN SOCAL. && .AVIATION... 181500Z...MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS AND TOP REPORTS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER HAD DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT. BASES WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1300 FEET MSL. STRATUS IS THICKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SO EXPECT A SLOWER BURN OFF BUT INVERSION ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXPECT BETTER CLEARING NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF BEGINNING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE THEN CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS SHOULD THEN PUSH BACK INLAND THIS EVENING. A COASTAL EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT SO A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION IS EXPECTED. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE FL200 AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
955 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007 .UPDATE...MINIMAL SHORT TERM UPDATE. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND WEB CAM FROM MUNISING INDICATE LK EFFECT FLURRIES ARE DONE. INVERSION OFF TAMDAR FM KSAW SHOWED INVERSION AROUND H95 AND TEMPS AT H95 ARE WARMING THROUGH AFTN SO THIS ALONG WITH DISORGANIZED WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO NO ADDITIONAL LK EFFECT PCPN. NEXT CONCERN ARE WINDS. EXPECT SHARP/SHALLOW INVERSION TO MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING. SFC RIDGE IS STILL OVER EAST HALF OF CWA THROUGH MOST OF AFTN THOUGH. PUT SOME GUSTS INTO WIND GRIDS OVR FAR WEST NEAR KIWD WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED THERE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL WITH RIDGE IN VCNTY. UPSTREAM...SNOW AND EVEN A BIT OF LGT RAIN IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SCNTRL CANADA AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. 12Z RAOBS SHOW STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH H85 TEMP VARYING FM +18C AT RAPID CITY TO -8C AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN. MAIN SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO HEAD SE SO NO RAIN ISSUES SHOULD DEVELOP HERE. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTN. NO CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES RIGHT NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION (409 AM EDT)... 07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO A LARGE TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW...THERE ARE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. DPVA AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS...COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING UPPER LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES...HAS RESULTED IN LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOWS HAS HELPED PULL DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ALONG WITH RAISING 850MB TEMPS AT 00Z TO 0C AT BIS AND 12C AT GGW. 00Z BIS SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.54 INCHES AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NO MORE THAN 5C. CLOSER TO HOME...BEING NEAR THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH... ANTICYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY...A 1025MB HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO DOWN TO NEW ORLEANS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE (PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.15 INCHES AT GRB) HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P.. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE ALSO COMING OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TOO. THE CLEARING...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS TO WIND ON MONDAY...AND FINALLY POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION MID-WEEK. MODELS...MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TWO SHRTWVS OF INTEREST...AND THE IMPACTS ON THE QPF FIELDS AND THE SURFACE PATTERN...IS VERY GOOD. THEREFORE PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE NAM FOR DETAILS. TODAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS UPPER MICHIGAN IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE. UPSTREAM...THE CURRENT ZONAL FLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A RESULT OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL CAUSE THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA TO DIG INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY 00Z...WHILE THE SHRTWV OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON MOVES EAST TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN WASHINGTON SHRTWV...SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT JET OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY REACH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S AGAIN. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN U.P....A FEW SITES THERE MAY GET CLOSE TO 40 THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS PROGGED TO DIG DOWN INTO NW ONTARIO BY 12Z...CAUSING THE SHRTWV OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE MODERATE SNOW AREA OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT... AND THAT THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS ALREADY FAIRLY MOIST (PARTICULARLY NEAR BIS) WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL. IT APPEARS A DRY SLOT MOVING IN WILL HELP END THE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BETWEEN 10-12Z. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DECENT SNOWFALL...SHOWING STRONG VERTICAL MOTION INTERSECTING A 2000-3000 FT DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER (LAYER LOCATED BETWEEN 12000-14000FT)...ALONG WITH A DEEP AGGREGATION LAYER (SURFACE TO 7000 FT). NAM/GFS QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST AROUND 0.5 INCH...WHICH GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR GOOD SIZE SNOWFLAKES...AT LEAST A 12 TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIO CAN BE USED. THIS RESULTS IN AMOUNTS AT HIGH END ADVISORY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOWFALL RATIOS THAT OCCUR UPSTREAM TODAY. IF THE SNOWFALL RATIOS END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...OR THERE IS MORE QPF EXPECTED...THE ADVISORIES MAY BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD KEEP READINGS ABOVE MAV/MET GUIDANCE. ON THE NOTE OF A DECENT SOUTHERLY WIND...NOT ONLY HAVE THE PCPN AMOUNTS INCREASED...BUT ALSO THE WIND SPEEDS. THE NAM SHOWS A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 3000 FT COMING ACROSS...WHICH RESULTS IN WIND SPEEDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE SURFACE BETWEEN 25-30 KT. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING...SOME GALES TO 35 KT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SINCE 850MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMB INTO -5C. MONDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO...THOUGH ALSO MOVING QUICKLY EAST. 850MB TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE -20S C BEHIND THE TROUGH RESULTS IN STRONG BAROCLINICITY...THUS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ENDS UP DEEPENING TO 993MB WHEN IT REACHES HALF WAY BETWEEN WAWA AND JAMES BAY BY 18Z. THEREFORE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE TURNING NW. BETWEEN 18-21Z...NW GALES OF 40-45 KT LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES WHICH ARE MORE EXPOSED TO THE NW WIND. AS FAR AS PCPN CHANCES GO...SNOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO BY NOON. AFTER THAT...THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN...ALONG WITH BEING ON THE SW SIDE OF THE STRONG SHRTWV TO THE NORTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY MORE SYNOPTIC PCPN. ALTHOUGH THE NW WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING IN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LATE IN THE DAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -15 TO -20C ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z...THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED ON SOUNDINGS TO BE VERY DRY. THEREFORE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND EVEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAY TAKE AWHILE TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS AFTER 18Z WE SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INCREASE...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A LONGER FETCH. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH MONDAYS SHRTWV TROUGH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A SURFACE HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD INTO FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHRTWV TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR THE SKIES OUT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF TO JUST BELOW ZERO SINCE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO GO LIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO AROUND 0.20 OF AN INCH. ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIPS OFF INTO QUEBEC BY 00Z...RESULTING IN WARM ADVECTION AGAIN. IN FACT...THE ADVECTION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING ALMOST 10C. HOWEVER...THIS WARMING IS NOT SEEN AS MUCH AT THE SURFACE GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE SE...INSTEAD OF SW LIKE AT 850MB. THEREFORE...THE MET GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A HIGH OF 20 AT SAW. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT COOL...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY BETWEEN -8C WEST AND -12C EAST AND MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PROGGED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL SHOWN...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SPLIT WESTERN TROUGH AND A SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN RIDGE. THUS...THE ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER CONTINUES. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT (1000MB) WHICH RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXITED OUR AREA ON TUE. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY GALE ON LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THIS. NONETHELESS...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE SURFACE LAYER MIXED AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 6C BY 12Z WED SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE TROUGH CROSSES THURSDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUST CONTINUE RISING. HOW MUCH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. RAIN SHOWERS ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWALTER INDICIES DROP BELOW ZERO TOO...SO ADDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 INCH...WHICH IS AROUND 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL! DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SET UP...SOME PLACES COULD GET AN INCH OF RAIN. SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE GREAT AGREEMENT BOTH AMONGST MODELS AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IN THE HWO. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU. PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK SPRING-LIKE. IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS RIGHT...SHOWING EXTRA AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT DAY COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. COORDINATED WITH DLH...GRB...APX AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA IN TORONTO. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY 8 PM EDT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY MIZ001>004-009-010-084. SNOW ADVISORY 11 PM EDT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY MIZ005-006-011>013. SNOW ADVISORY 1 AM EDT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY MIZ007-014-085. GALE WARNING WEST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR MONDAY. GALE WARNING EAST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. && $$ UPDATE...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1032 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2007 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN MT MOVING EAST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN NEB WAS ALSO SHIFTING EAST. TAMDAR SOUNDING INDICATE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AT 850 HPA AROUND 5 TO 6C AT PIR OR ABOUT 5 OR 6C HIGHER THAN MODEL FORECAST. RADAR SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO NORTHERN ND. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW FIELD ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST AND LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES OVER SNOW FIELD IN THE NORTH. WINDS WERE BRISK OVER EASTERN ND WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KTS RANGE. WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO EASTERN ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MN...WILL NOT HAVE SNOW ADVISORY GO ANY FARTHER WEST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ053. MN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MNZ009- 017. && $$ HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT SUN MAR 18 2007 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND A COASTAL EDDY WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS. IN THE INTERIOR IT WILL BE FAIR AND COOLER. FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A COASTAL HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF CLEARING NEAR THE COAST AND THE DEEPENING MARINE LAYER UP PAST 2500 FEET. MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON WITH FULL COASTAL BASIN COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT UP TO 3000 FEET. TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH EXCEPT IN THE INTERIOR WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPS DOWN. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOCAL LATE TUE AND EARLY WED AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND WIND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH THAT SLIDES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH AND TURNS IT INTO A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MEXICO. THIS INTRODUCES MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS. INITIALLY THE LOW WILL WRING OUT HEAVY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THE MARINE LAYER TUE...THEN GENERATE SHOWERS IN ALL AREAS (EXCEPT PROBABLY NOT DESERTS) TUE EVE THROUGH WED. BY WED EVE THE CURRENT SOLUTION SHOVES THE MOISTURE EASTWARD AS THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...BUT MORE WIND AND COLD AIR ARRIVE TOO. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TUE EVE THROUGH WED EVE...BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN SMALL AND SHOULD BE BELOW 0.25 INCH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING STARTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH BY WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...A NICE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW CAMPS OUT IN MEXICO ON THU THROUGH SAT. SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL GET SQUASHED BACK TO ONLY THE COAST. THE JET STREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SAGS SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK PUTTING CA IN STRONGER ZONAL FLOW...BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS WAY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP IN SOCAL. && .AVIATION... 182100Z...ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER HAD DEEPENED TO ALMOST 3000 FEET SINCE THIS MORNING. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY APPEARS TO BE HELPING TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER. STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL...SHOULD PUSH BACK INLAND THIS EVENING AND PENETRATE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD HAVE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT MESA AND INLAND AIRPORTS TONIGHT. STRATUS SHOULD PULL BACK TO THE COAST...AGAIN...BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE FL200 AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON