Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 03/23/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED MAR 21 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH SOME OF THE PASSES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... AIR MASS CURRENTLY SATURATED AND UNSTABLE...BUT WITH CUTOFF LOW NOW SPUN UP AND MOVING SOUTH OVER OUTER WATERS PER MODEL FORECAST...AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM COAST TONIGHT...DRYING AND STABILIZING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT. THE MODELS TAKE THE LOW SOUTH TO ABOUT 28N LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING IT EASTWARD AND TRACKING IT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH GFS AND NAM12 NOW IN AGREEMENT ON SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH LOW NOT MOVING OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SONORA MEXICO UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. AT THIS SPEED SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS A DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED TO O SHOW 5-10 DEGREES WARMING EACH DAY. EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL ALSO BE WARMING BUT TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CONTINUED CLOUD COVER DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. ALSO UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ADD TO THE LINGERING INSTABILITY THERE AND MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM SO INCLUDED MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS/DRY LIGHTNING OVER LOWER DESERTS AND EASTERN HALF OF MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND FLATTENS SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND INLAND...HOWEVER COASTAL EDDY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN MARINE LAYER SO COAST AND LOWER INLAND VALLEYS WILL BE COOLING AND MOISTENING. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL BRING COOLING ALL AREAS AS WELL AS INCREASE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. COOL BUT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. && .AVIATION... 211930Z...LATE MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A HINT OF A MARINE INVERSION AROUND 8000 FEET. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP BROKEN LAYERS OF STRATOCU OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM AROUND 2500 FEET MSL TO 6000 FEET MSL. LOCALLY LOWER SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET MSL. FOR THURSDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA WILL KEEP LAYERS TO STRATOCU AND ALTOCU OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED MAR 21 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH SOME OF THE PASSES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST MOVES SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA. FAIR AND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... NEAR STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS REGION WITH AIR MASS SATURATED TO 10000 FT WILL CONTINUE COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS TODAY. NORTHERLY JET AROUND 100 KT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BEGUN FORMING A SECONDARY LOW IN THE VICINITY OF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO SHIFT TO OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALONG 28 N LATITUDE BUT DIFFER ON SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE SLOWER NAM12 MODEL IS PREFERRED DUE TO THE TENDENCY OF BAROCLINIC MODELS TO EJECT CUTOFF LOWS TOO SOON. THUS PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THREAT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS LOWER DESERTS AND UP AGAINST EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE TO THE EAST...HOWEVER CLOSE ENOUGH TO THAT A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL LIKELY REINTRODUCE IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. DGEX SHOWS A RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING COOLING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION... 211545Z...ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WAS DISRUPTED THIS MORNING AS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LAYERS TO CU AND STRATOCU OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE THIS EVENING WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS BROKEN LAYERS BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FEET WITH LOCALLY LOWER LAYERS AROUND 1200 FEET. TOPS ABOVE 8000 FEET. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN VICINITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM THE MOUNTAINS WESTWARD WITH BASES AROUND 2500 MSL AND TOPS TO 6000 FEET MSL. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE MOUNTAIN WAVE/ROTOR ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KPSP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
648 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2007 .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS... 330 AM CDT FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON SHOWERS/TSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATING SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE W-SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SLATER IOWA PROFILER INDICATED A GOOD VEERING SIGNATURE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS VORT MAX OVER PAST FEW HOURS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER THE WRF 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z IN ADVANCE OF THIS VORT MAX ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE AFTER 12Z ONCE ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER THIS MORNING GIVEN THIS. AFTER 12Z...STRONGEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN. ANOTHER UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN ADVANCE OF THIS VORT MAX IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER WITH THE PASSAGE OF ELEVATED WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RE-STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TOWARD MIDDAY. WITH AFOREMENTIONED NEBRASKA VORT TRACKING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...BEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS. DESPITE CLOUDS/PRECIP TODAY...HIGH TEMPS FROM LOW 60S EXTREME NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH STILL SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEW PTS RISING INTO THE 50S. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY S-SW WINDS IN WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW FOR A MINIMAL TEMP DROP OFF AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. TREND OVER PAST FEW RUNS OF WRF/GFS HAVE BEEN TO A FASTER FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT INTO THIS IDEA. THUS...HAVE MOVED UP TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT...AND NOW QUICKER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MORE IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH WRF BUKFIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWRLY LLJ. DOES NOT SEEM LIKE AN OPTIMAL SEVERE SETUP GIVEN FRONTAL TIMING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF I-88. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER/LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE RAINFALL TOTALS. BETWEEN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON HYDRO HEADLINES GIVEN RAINFALL RATES NOT EXCEEDINGLY GREAT THIS MORNING...BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER MAX TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE FRIDAY JUST A SHADE. NORTHEAST FLOW UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH AND LINGERING FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH COOLER LAKESIDE TEMPS. PRECIP FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY GETS A BIT TRICKER WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAD TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA RETURN CWA-WIDE SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS. MARSILI && .AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 06Z TAFS... 648 AM CDT FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS TIMING PRECIP/CONVECTIVE THREATS TO TERMINALS...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED IFR CIG/VIS ISSUES THIS MORNING. SERIES OF MINOR AMPLITUDE MID LVL S/WV TROFS RIPPLING NE FROM CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN RW/EMBEDDED TRW AFFECTING MS VLY AND WRN GRTLKS REGION IN BROAD SWLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION. VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ONE WEAK VORT LIFTING NERN IL/SERN WI ATTM...WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SMALL S/WV MOVG INTO WRN IA. PROFILERS/ACARS SOUNDINGS DEPICT 50 KT LLVL JET IMPINGING UPON ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL ZONE...PRODUCING MOIST CONVERGENCE/THETA-E ADVECTION INTO FCST AREA. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM KDSM AND KRFD INDICATE LAPSE RATES NOT VERY STEEP...THOUGH TS OCCURRING ALONG ELEVATED MOIST CONVERGENT AXIS FROM NERN IA TO ECNTRL MO/WCNTRL IL. S/WV TO LIFT THRU FCST AREA DURG THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT SOME DIURNAL DECREASE TO LLVL JET STRENGTH AND WEAKENING OF RW/TRW BY MID/LATE MORNING. KRFD HAS PERHAPS BETTER CHANCE OF TRW...GIVEN BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING AS WRN IA S/WV LIFTS INTO WI. IFR CIGS WHICH HAVE DVLPD IN RAIN MOISTENED COOLER LOW LEVELS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AS RW DECREASE AND TEMPS RISE. WITH S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST OF AREA XPCT TO HAVE LULL IN PCPN THREAT FROM AFTN THRU EVENING HOURS...THEN THREAT INCREASES OVRNGT AS MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS NRN PLAINS/UPR LAKES. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT TONIGHT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES...600-700 J/KG OF MLCAPE FOR A PARCEL JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS EXPCTG LINE OF TS TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS FCST AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT. SFC WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY IN 130-150 DEG RANGE SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH WITH TIME AS SFC WRMFRNT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS AREA THRU AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS INTO 25+ KT RANGE FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT HOURS...AS WINDS BECOME MORE SSW WITH TIME. COLD FROPA APPEARS TO AFFECT KRFD AROUND 10-11Z...THEN INTO CHI AREA ABOUT 12/13Z. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ILLINOIS NEARSHORE THROUGH 18Z THURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INDIANA NEARSHORE 18Z WED-18Z THURS. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHEARING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM A 989MB CYCLONE IN EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE IT IS STALLING. A SECONDARY STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A 1021MB ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROMPTING A SECOND ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION ATOP TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RAIN SHIELD WHICH IS TIMED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AROUND SUNSET (PER 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES). THE 00Z LWX 6KM WRF-NMM MODEL SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA DEEPER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE 00Z NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT LOW CAPE. TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION WANES. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT RISES TO THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...ENCOURAGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION... A SHIELD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD KMRB AND THE METRO HUBS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOWERING THE CEILING THROUGH THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS TO NEAR THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND OFFER A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TO NORTHEAST. && .MARINE... 00Z ETA/GFS MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 10KTS TODAY...AND AROUND 10KTS TONIGHT. 00Z NAM PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADDITIONAL WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 15KTS TONIGHT (00Z GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ADDITIONAL WIND GUST POTENTIAL). A MARG SCA EVENT STILL POSSIBLE SUN/MON BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AND ESP BEYOND WHERE THE PRES GRAD INDUCED WIND WILL BE CONSIDERABLE. DUE TO LOW-END NATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STRAIGHT 15 KT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LTR TRENDS. && .TIDES... CHESAPEAKE BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. BOTH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND NOAA EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODELS INDICATE WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR FALL UP TO ONE FOOT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS THROUGH TODAY. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WAXING TOWARD A QUARTER MOON (22% FULL). && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ANOTHER LOW PRES WAVE DROPS FROM WESTERN PA INTO CTRL/NRN VA BY SAT AFTN...BRINGING RENEWED CHCS FOR RNFL. STILL SEEMS THAT BEST CHCS (LKLY POPS) WILL BE RELEGATED FROM KCBE TO BALTIMORE WHILE HOLDING AT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE DC AREA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY SAT EVNG WITH JET SUPPORT DROPPING INTO SRN PA. SEEMS THAT A LITTLE HVYR PRECIP WOULD BE POSSIBLE SAT EVNG ACROSS NRN MD INCLUDING THE KCBE-KFDK REGION DUE TO UPPER JET SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED HVYR PRECIP. HAVE UPDATED SAT NGT TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED ON MDL SNDGS BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF TSTMS FOR NOW BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANY PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD END BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP SUN DRY STILL. HWVR...HAVE HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LOW LEVEL NRLY FLOW SUN MRNG. BY SUN AFTN THOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHGS NOTED IN PERIODS BEYOND SUN NGT WITH LOW CHCS FOR SHOWERS STILL INDICATED TUE-TUE NGT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/TIDES...ROGOWSKI LONG TERM...BROTHERTON MARINE...ROGOWSKI/BROTHERTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
257 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .DISCUSSION...SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH CONFLUENCE AXIS WHERE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES MERGE BACK TOGETHER. NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...MEANWHILE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING MEXICO FORECAST TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUCKLING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL PROBABLY SEND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS NORTHWARD. SO ATTENTION ON WEEKEND WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING. TODAY/TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT BUT REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN WI...AREA OF MID CLOUD OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURES ACROSS UPPER AND SPREADING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. 00Z RAOBS FROM APX/GRB WERE FAIRLY DRY (700MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 14C). 03Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF PLN HAS MOISTENED A BIT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT STILL DRY BELOW 700MB. AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND WITH CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10K FOOT RANGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ZIP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS UPPER MI/STRAITS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND MILD AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. AS FOR THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...PROBABLY ALL RIGHT TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES...IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S RAINFALL EVENT PROBABLY WOULD HAVE SEEN THEM BY NOW. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES WHERE RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL TRENDING UPWARD...WITH FLOOD WARNING FOR ARENAC COUNTY ALONG RIFLE RIVER WHICH IS STILL RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE (9 FEET) THOUGH HYDROGRAPH SHOWING SIGNS OF RIVER NEARING CREST. SATURDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MI SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE. WON`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...LOWER LAYERS STILL FORECAST TO BE PRETTY DRY SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD DEAL OF VIRGA (LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING). DEEP LAYER RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THEN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...AND AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WHICH WILL BE CLIMBING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WILL RE-ORIENT PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM EAST-WEST TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS WESTERN END OF THE FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTH ACROSS IA AND INTO MN/SOUTHERN WI. DRY AIR WILL STILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY...BETTER MOIST INFLOW MAY NOT GET FOCUSED TOWARD LOWER MI UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH PERHAPS JUST A LATE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF M-37. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED ON THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK FINE THOUGH MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A MORNING ISSUE. TUESDAY FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON WHETHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE OR GETS HUNG UP IF HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS INDICATED BY 22/12Z ECMWF OUTPUT. GIVEN THIS CONFLICT SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY (THOUGH WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL AREAS). JPB && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIZ041-042. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1101 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTN/... YDA...WHEN I SAW THE PTNL FOR A FNT TO HANG UP ALONG THE MASON-DIXON I KNEW TDA`S FCST WOULD HV HIGH "BUST PTNL"... SO MANY TIMES IN ERLY SPRING MDLS HV PROJECTED THE FNT TO SEEP SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...ONLY TO HV IT HANG N...AND OUR FCST TEMPS ARE 10-15 DEGS TOO LOW. WE TOOK A SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC VIEW YDA...AND FCSTD MU60S FOR TDA. ATTM THE FNT IS HUNG ON THE PA SIDE OF THAT LN...AND TEMPS HV SOARED EVEN HIGHER S - CURRENTLY 74 AT THE OFFICE. UPPED THE THE TEMPS MANY LOCALES...XCPT ALONG THE BAY - NAK DROPPED 10 DEGS IN PAST HR DUE TO BAY BRZ. I`VE PARED BACK THE POPS THIS AFTN AS WELL...CUT DC FM LKLY TO CHC...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN THAT THERE`S ANY CHC AT ALL. FNT STILL LOOKS TO SAG S THIS EVE. WOODY! && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHEARING SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM A 989MB CYCLONE IN EASTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE IT IS STALLING. A SECONDARY STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A 1021MB ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PROMPTING A SECOND ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION ATOP TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RAIN SHIELD WHICH IS TIMED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AROUND SUNSET (PER 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES). THE 00Z LWX 6KM WRF-NMM MODEL SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA DEEPER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE 00Z NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT LOW CAPE. TONIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION WANES. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT RISES TO THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...ENCOURAGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AVIATION... A SHIELD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD KMRB AND THE METRO HUBS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOWERING THE CEILING THROUGH THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS TO NEAR THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND OFFER A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE...TO NORTHEAST. MARINE... 00Z ETA/GFS MOS AT THOMAS POINT INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 10KTS TODAY...AND AROUND 10KTS TONIGHT. 00Z NAM PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADDITIONAL WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 15KTS TONIGHT (00Z GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ADDITIONAL WIND GUST POTENTIAL). A MARG SCA EVENT STILL POSSIBLE SUN/MON BOTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES AND ESP BEYOND WHERE THE PRES GRAD INDUCED WIND WILL BE CONSIDERABLE. DUE TO LOW-END NATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION STRAIGHT 15 KT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LTR TRENDS. TIDES... CHESAPEAKE BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AT ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS. BOTH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OPERATIONAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND NOAA EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODELS INDICATE WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR FALL UP TO ONE FOOT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS THROUGH TODAY. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WAXING TOWARD A QUARTER MOON (22% FULL). LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ANOTHER LOW PRES WAVE DROPS FROM WESTERN PA INTO CTRL/NRN VA BY SAT AFTN...BRINGING RENEWED CHCS FOR RNFL. STILL SEEMS THAT BEST CHCS (LKLY POPS) WILL BE RELEGATED FROM KCBE TO BALTIMORE WHILE HOLDING AT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE DC AREA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY SAT EVNG WITH JET SUPPORT DROPPING INTO SRN PA. SEEMS THAT A LITTLE HVYR PRECIP WOULD BE POSSIBLE SAT EVNG ACROSS NRN MD INCLUDING THE KCBE-KFDK REGION DUE TO UPPER JET SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED HVYR PRECIP. HAVE UPDATED SAT NGT TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS IN THAT AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED ON MDL SNDGS BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF TSTMS FOR NOW BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANY PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD END BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SO HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP SUN DRY STILL. HWVR...HAVE HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LOW LEVEL NRLY FLOW SUN MRNG. BY SUN AFTN THOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE. NO MAJOR CHGS NOTED IN PERIODS BEYOND SUN NGT WITH LOW CHCS FOR SHOWERS STILL INDICATED TUE-TUE NGT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT RUNNING AROUND 0.3 INCH OFF 12Z APX SOUNDING). AREA OF THICKER MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE (PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) DRIFTING THROUGH THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BKN SKIES PRIMARILY TO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES JUST GETTING INTO THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS (925 MB WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS) SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE SHORELINE AREAS. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO GOING FORECAST...AND UPDATE ALREADY SENT. HYDRO CONCERNS...USGS GAGE READINGS ON THE TOBACCO AND RIFLE RIVERS STILL GOING UP (ABOVE BANKFULL STAGE ON THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING). HOWEVER TREND HAS FLATTENED OUT THIS MORNING INDICATING THE RIVER LEVELS LIKELY NEARING PEAK. NONETHELESS...WILL TAKE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY TO GET THE WATER THROUGH THE SYSTEM AND THE LEVELS BACK DOWN AGAIN. WILL MAKE SOME CALLS TO THE AREA AND CHECK FORECAST DATA...BUT ONGOING FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED EXTENDING THROUGH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS SATURDAY. ADAM && .AVIATION...ISSUED AT 722 AM. VFR CONDITIONS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. EARLY MORNING SCT-BKN 9KFT MID CLOUD DECK WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS BY MID MORNING. WITH LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXPECTING LAKE BREEZES TO KICK IN OFF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST INFLUENCE EXPECTED AT TVC AND PLN WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY VEER MORE WEST (PLN) TO NORTH (TVC) WITH PASSAGE OF LAKE FRONT. MSB && .DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 257 AM. SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH CONFLUENCE AXIS WHERE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES MERGE BACK TOGETHER. NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...MEANWHILE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING MEXICO FORECAST TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUCKLING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL PROBABLY SEND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS NORTHWARD. SO ATTENTION ON WEEKEND WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING. TODAY/TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT BUT REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN WI...AREA OF MID CLOUD OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURES ACROSS UPPER AND SPREADING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. 00Z RAOBS FROM APX/GRB WERE FAIRLY DRY (700MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 14C). 03Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF PLN HAS MOISTENED A BIT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT STILL DRY BELOW 700MB. AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND WITH CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10K FOOT RANGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ZIP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS UPPER MI/STRAITS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND MILD AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. AS FOR THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...PROBABLY ALL RIGHT TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES...IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S RAINFALL EVENT PROBABLY WOULD HAVE SEEN THEM BY NOW. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES WHERE RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL TRENDING UPWARD...WITH FLOOD WARNING FOR ARENAC COUNTY ALONG RIFLE RIVER WHICH IS STILL RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE (9 FEET) THOUGH HYDROGRAPH SHOWING SIGNS OF RIVER NEARING CREST. SATURDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MI SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE. WON`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...LOWER LAYERS STILL FORECAST TO BE PRETTY DRY SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD DEAL OF VIRGA (LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING). DEEP LAYER RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THEN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...AND AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WHICH WILL BE CLIMBING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WILL RE-ORIENT PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM EAST-WEST TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS WESTERN END OF THE FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTH ACROSS IA AND INTO MN/SOUTHERN WI. DRY AIR WILL STILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY...BETTER MOIST INFLOW MAY NOT GET FOCUSED TOWARD LOWER MI UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH PERHAPS JUST A LATE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF M-37. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED ON THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK FINE THOUGH MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A MORNING ISSUE. TUESDAY FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON WHETHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE OR GETS HUNG UP IF HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS INDICATED BY 22/12Z ECMWF OUTPUT. GIVEN THIS CONFLICT SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY (THOUGH WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL AREAS). JPB && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIZ041-042. FLOOD WARNING...THROUGH NOON...MIZ042. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .UPDATE... MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...AND NEW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON 290K SFC (ROUGHLY 750-800MB) PER 12Z RUC. ASCENT SLACKENS DURING THE AFTN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT SOME LATER IN THE AFTN. AS FOR TEMPS...12Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS AND MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW SUPPORT RAISING HIGH TEMPS. KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F IF MIXED LAYER BUILDS TO 850MB WHILE KSAW SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S. RAISED HIGHS TO THE LWR END OF THOSE VALUES GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER LIGHT SRLY FLOW...AND THE COOLING SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS ALL OF THE ERN FCST AREA. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR EXCEPT FOR AREAS E OF MARQUETTE AS SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THRU THE AFTN TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT THERE. && .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT)... MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS THEN FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF NEXT CHC OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER SRN ALBERTA. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPR GREAT LAKES PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN AREA OF WEAK Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MODEL SNDGS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SO KEPT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER OVER THE ERN FCST AREA NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL COOLING SHOULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE W AND NCNTRL AREAS MID/LATE AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. FROM MUNISING EWD...SRLY FLOW MAY STRONG ENOUGH 10-15 KT TO SUPRESS LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM ALBERTA IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100 KT 3H JET SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS PER MODEL SNDGS BUT OTHERWISE MODEL SNDGS LOOK PRETTY DRY AT LOW LEVELS. WEAK PRES GRADIENTS WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP SAT OFF BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER (40S) ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS. MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH NEAR TO MID 50S. SAT NIGHT...INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR...CLOSER TO COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AN INCREASING RIBBON OF MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300K SFC... A 40KT H85 JET...AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH ARE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. NEG 850-500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN THUNDER. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SUN NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC WARM FRONT AND UPR TROUGH. DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF/WARM FRONT SHOULD TAPER OFF RAIN CHCS BY MON AFTERNOON. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
722 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. EARLY MORNING SCT-BKN 9KFT MID CLOUD DECK WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS BY MID MORNING. WITH LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXPECTING LAKE BREEZES TO KICK IN OFF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON DURING THE AFTERNOON. BIGGEST INFLUENCE EXPECTED AT TVC AND PLN WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY VEER MORE WEST (PLN) TO NORTH (TVC) WITH PASSAGE OF LAKE FRONT. MSB && .DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 257 AM. SPLIT FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE GREAT LAKES BENEATH CONFLUENCE AXIS WHERE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES MERGE BACK TOGETHER. NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...MEANWHILE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING MEXICO FORECAST TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUCKLING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL PROBABLY SEND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS NORTHWARD. SO ATTENTION ON WEEKEND WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING. TODAY/TONIGHT...MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT BUT REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN WI...AREA OF MID CLOUD OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURES ACROSS UPPER AND SPREADING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. 00Z RAOBS FROM APX/GRB WERE FAIRLY DRY (700MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 14C). 03Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING OUT OF PLN HAS MOISTENED A BIT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT STILL DRY BELOW 700MB. AREA RADARS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NO REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND WITH CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE 9-10K FOOT RANGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ZIP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS UPPER MI/STRAITS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND MILD AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. AS FOR THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...PROBABLY ALL RIGHT TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR MANISTEE/WEXFORD COUNTIES...IF WE`RE GOING TO SEE FLOOD PROBLEMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S RAINFALL EVENT PROBABLY WOULD HAVE SEEN THEM BY NOW. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES WHERE RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL TRENDING UPWARD...WITH FLOOD WARNING FOR ARENAC COUNTY ALONG RIFLE RIVER WHICH IS STILL RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE (9 FEET) THOUGH HYDROGRAPH SHOWING SIGNS OF RIVER NEARING CREST. SATURDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN MI SATURDAY AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE. WON`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...LOWER LAYERS STILL FORECAST TO BE PRETTY DRY SO MAY JUST END UP WITH A GOOD DEAL OF VIRGA (LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING). DEEP LAYER RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THEN BUILD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...AND AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WHICH WILL BE CLIMBING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOR SUNDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THIS WILL RE-ORIENT PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM EAST-WEST TO NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS WESTERN END OF THE FRONT GETS PUSHED NORTH ACROSS IA AND INTO MN/SOUTHERN WI. DRY AIR WILL STILL HANG ON MUCH OF THE DAY...BETTER MOIST INFLOW MAY NOT GET FOCUSED TOWARD LOWER MI UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH PERHAPS JUST A LATE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF M-37. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED ON THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK FINE THOUGH MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A MORNING ISSUE. TUESDAY FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT MORE UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON WHETHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE OR GETS HUNG UP IF HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS INDICATED BY 22/12Z ECMWF OUTPUT. GIVEN THIS CONFLICT SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY (THOUGH WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL AREAS). JPB && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIZ041-042. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
137 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2007 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA MEXICO TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL EDDY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND BE PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN. ON TUESDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM RIDGE BUILDING IN HAS CAPPED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. OVER CONVECTION. LEFT A MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SLOPES FOR THIS EVENING BUT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY SLIM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT COASTAL STATIONS SUPPORT EDDY DEVELOPMENT AND NAM12 MODEL INDICATES IT WILL PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING AT THE SAME TIME AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS INCREASES SUPPORT ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMING EACH DAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WARMING OVER INLAND VALLEYS AND LIKELY COOLING OVER COASTAL SECTIONS DUE TO INCREASE IN STRATUS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARDS COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS AND LIFTING OF THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...RESULTING IN A GENERAL COOL DOWN FOR ALL AREAS. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... FOR TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND TO THE NORTH. MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLING...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 4000-4500 FEET ON TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BUT REGION STILL IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GO OUT OF PHASE. WILL STAY WITH SCENARIO OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING THROUGH FRIDAY...FOR SLOW WARM UP BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... 231900Z...LATE MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH NEAR KSAN WAS AROUND 1000 FEET. A MODERATE COASTAL EDDY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTLINE SHOULD EXPAND THIS EVENING AND PUSH INLAND. BASES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BE AROUND 800 FEET MSL SO AS THE STRATUS PUSHES INLAND...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AT MOST COASTAL AIRPORTS TONIGHT WITH LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SOME OF THE MESA AND INLAND VALLEY AIRPORTS. STRATUS SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE KONT AREA BUT SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KONT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KCNO BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...MID AND HIGH LEVEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENT OVER NORTHWEST SONORA IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 12000 FEET MSL. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO